PROPHECIES IN PHOOTBALL for the Second Week of September, 2015

AFL – We’re going out on a limb for a couple of these games, folks. We’re siding with the “underdog” on two of these four playoff games this weekend: West Coast at home over Hawthorn (the 5.5 point favorite) and Adelaide over the “home” team Western Bulldogs, who are being forced to play their “home playoff game” in a stadium they never host in, the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Grounds) because Etihad Stadium “can’t hold the 50,000 we expect for this game". Western is understandably upset, and there’s a precedent from last year when Geelong was allowed to host its playoff game at similarly sized Simmonds Stadium in Geelong instead of the MCG. Were the game at Etihad, we’d take the Doggies; on the large surface of the MCG, we prefer the Crows. The other two games? Richmond beat the Kangaroos’ seconds last week, and we think that’ll carry over to their starters on Sunday. And with the surprising news of Lance Franklin being out indefinitely for Sydney with (to everyone’s shock and surprise) a mild form of epilepsy and a severe mental issue, we’re switching to take Fremantle at home instead. [Interestingly, we just watched the CrownBet show “Pick A Winner” on AFL television, and their two experts, who usually agreed on 7 or 8 of a 9-game weekend, disagree on ALL FOUR games this finals round. That’s how competitive it is!] EXTRA BET: The “over/under” in the West Coast/Hawthorn game is 164.5…82 points apiece. They’ll pass that by three quarter time – bet the over!

(To recap: Hawthorn, Fremantle, Adelaide, Richmond. Our record this year was 115-82 against the spread, and 143-54 overall à better than the odds-makers (137), better than the “Real Footy” Expert Tipsters at the Age (129), better than the afl.com.au prognosticators (140), and better than 96.82% of the 180,000 tipsters in Australia and beyond!)

CFL – We’ll go with Hamilton over Toronto, 41-28; Saskatchewan edging Winnipeg 23-22; Calgary over Edmonton 27-21; and BC over Ottawa 27-14. Coincidentally, the first three scores are our exact predictions LAST week, and they look like they’ll be even MORE accurate THIS week! (Our record so far this year: 26-18, tied with the CFL predictor Jamie Nye and one game better than the odds-makers; we’re also in the top 15% of the field in the CFL “pick-em” game, with 13,000 members!)

NFL – Hooray! Our first pro football predictions! At least for this first week, let’s show you part of the matrix that we work with when starting on our predictions (which are, of course, 0-0 so far in ’15)…

Home	Away	Vegas Line	Sagarin	ESPN FPI	My Pick	FF Ratings
Patriots	Steelers	<3	<12.8	<3.8	NE +	<3
Bills	Colts	2.5>	0.1>	5.0>	IN+	4>
Bears	Packers	6.5>	9.3>	8.3>	GB+	11>
Texans	Chiefs	<1	0.1>	1.0>	KC -	<3
Jaguars	Panthers	3>	6.5>	6.5>	J -	4>
Jets	Browns	<3	<0.7	<1.9	CL -	<3
Rams	Seahawks	3>	9.0>	6.4>	S +	4>
Redskins	Dolphins	3.5>	7.1>	5.4>	MI +	4>
Cardinals	Saints	<2.5	<6.9	0.6>	AZ +	<10
Chargers	Lions	<2.5	<1.6	0.2>	SD +	<3
Broncos	Ravens	<4	<4.0	<2.8	BAL -	<3
Raiders	Bengals	3>	5.9>	7.2>	CIN +	4>
Buccaneers	Titans	<3	<4.8	<0.3	TB +	<3
Cowboys	Giants	<5	<10.0	<3.9	D +	<10
Falcons	Eagles	2>	4.6>	2.8>	PH +	4>
49ers	Vikings	2>	<3.8	0.6>	MIN +	4>

Not all of it fits on here (538’s ELO ratings, for example), but you get the idea. And if you’re looking for our predictions, look at the bold face column marked “My Pick” towards the right (the Following Football preliminary ratings-based forecast is on the far right in red). Plus and minus refer to the Vegas Line, taken on Tuesday.

For clarity, we’re taking the Patriots, Colts, Packers, Seahawks, Dolphins, Cards, Chargers, Bengals, Bucs, Cowboys, Eagles and Vikings to win AND cover the Vegas spread given in the left column. We are also saying that the Chiefs, Jaguars, Browns, and Ravens will at least be closer than the Vegas spread suggests, and possibly win the game outright. (My own rule, stolen from people smarter than me at this stuff: If you don’t think the team can pull the upset, don’t bet them to cover.)

NCAA: Even one week in, we can start puffing our chest out: Will Green of SI.com does a great column with his six best picks of the week. That’s right – he can pick and choose which games to bet on, and still he’s at 4-3-1 so far…barely over chance…against the spread. Meanwhile, we went 47-28 on our published picks last week, which included virtually EVERY game in the FBS. (And straight up, we picked 70 out of 80 winners.) Check out last Wednesday’s column and see for yourself!

So, here we go (all lines as of Tuesday): 

TOP-TIER GAMES: Oregon at Michigan St: We understand why Sparty’s favored at home; we just disagree. Oregon and take the 3.5 points.

Oklahoma at Tennessee: Big pressure game. Which team is used to big games? Oklahoma (pick’em game).

 

LSU at Mississippi St: Call us crazy, but we like the Doggies here, and the 4.5 points are a nice bonus. Maybe if LSU had finished a game last week, but as it is, MSU’s the one who’s broken in – and played an actual FBS team last week to boot. MSU and take the 4.5 points. (We went 3-1 ATS and 4-0 overall on these games last week.)

OTHER GAMES OF INTEREST IN THE FBS: Appalachian St @ Clemson (-17): take the points! ApSt is good. They may not win, but they’ll play the Tigers close, and they’re no Wofford!...USF @ Florida St (-28): risky but we think FSU will cover…Houston @ Louisville (-12): We think Houston could possibly win the game, so we’re taking twelve points!...Wake Forest @ Syracuse (-4.5): Sagarin has the Demon Deacons by eight; our ratings have them dead even, so take the points…Notre Dame @ Virginia (+12): C’mon! If Texas couldn’t play them within 30 points, the Cavaliers should lose by at least that…Oregon St @ Michigan (-15.5): That line’s awfully high…but the Beavers aren’t awfully good, either. Take Harbaugh to win his first…Washington St @ Rutgers (-2): A battle of bottom feeders. Rutgers is a smoking mess right now, but they didn’t lose to Portland St last week…Kansas St @ UTSA (+17): look out, Wildcats: the Roadrunners gave another set of Wildcats all they could handle last week!…Minnesota @ Colorado St (+6):The Gophers proved last week they can stay with anyone…and CSU is no Horned Frog…Boise St @ BYU (+2.5): Boy I don’t feel confident in the Broncos after the UW game. But giving them a week to prep for a newbie QB will be the difference…UMass @ Colorado (-13): If Massachusetts really is better this year, they can stay within two scores of a team who couldn’t handle Hawai’i last week…Utah St @ Utah (-13.5): It took an act of God to beat FCS Southern Utah at home last week. The Utes beat flipp’n Michigan. Next game...San Diego St @ California (-13.5): despite the numbers to the contrary, I just can’t believe that the Cal team who just beat Grambling by as much as they wanted to can’t score two more TDs than SDSU at home…Kentucky @ South Carolina (-7.5): Nobody has faith in the ol’ ball coach, I guess. KY’s not that jelled…Temple @ Cincinnati (-7): Yes, it’s a Bearcat home game, but Temple just took down Penn St in front of 100,000 Nittany Lion fans. I don’t think it’ll bother them…Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky (pick’m): Yes, LaTech looked better last week, but WKU’s a better team…North Texas @ SMU (-4.5): Hard not to take the team with a game under their belt as opposed to the one starting on the road…San Jose St @ Air Force (+6.5): All my other numbers favor AFA straight up…Marshall @ Ohio (+3.5): Despite the fact that Sagarin has this eight points in the Bobcats’ favor, I’m going with the Herd to bounce back from a poor game against Purdue last week…Two bottom-feeder games to end this section: Eastern Michigan @ Wyoming (-13.5): EMU is much improved; the Cowboys aren’t, yet…and Georgia State @ New Mexico St (-7): take the points: if GSU has any pride, they’ll come out firing after their loss to Charlotte last week. (We were 8-2 in this segment last week.) WHOOPS! We forgot one of the biggies: Iowa @ Iowa St (+3.5), which shouldn’t be more than a FG either way.

LUDICROUS BLOWOUTS-TO-BE WITH LUDICROUS LINES TO MATCH: Calling games like Howard @ Boston College (-48), NC Central @ Duke (-44), Tulane @ Georgia Tech (-29), Miami-OH @ Wisconsin (-32.5), Lamar @ Baylor (-52.5), Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma St (-36.5), Stephen F. Austin @ TCU (-43), Liberty @ West Virginia (-35), Middle Tennessee @ Alabama (-34), Jacksonville St @ Auburn (-30), Hawaii @ Ohio St (-40), UNLV @ UCLA (-29), and Idaho @ USC (-43) is basically an exercise in “Do you think the favored team has an offense that would score that many points, and do they have the mindset that they will score that many points?” So, if it’s Baylor or TCU? Pile’em on. If it’s Duke or BC? Forty points is a lot of points to ask of them. Read the underlines for our favorites against the spread; we obviously like the favorite in every game.

WHAT OTHER FBS GAMES HAVE WE LEFT OUT? North Carolina St over Eastern Kentucky (remember, bold means winner, underline means betting favorite), Miami-FL over FAU, Pitt @ Akron, Furman @ Virginia Tech, Indiana over FIU, Maryland over Bowling Green, Penn St over Buffalo, Western Illinois @ Illinois, Eastern Illinois @ Northwestern, Indiana St @ Purdue, Memphis @ Kansas, holding our breath and taking Texas over Rice (with a side of beans…), Arizona @ Nevada, Cal Poly SLO discovering Arizona St is NOT Montana, Florida over East Carolina, Georgia @ Vanderbilt (but I hope I’m wrong and those were signs of life from the Commodores last week!), Missouri over Arkansas St by more than the 10.5 but not a ton more (maybe 20?), Arkansas over Toledo, mostly beating the spread because it’s the Glassmen’s first game; Ole Miss hosts Fresno St and Texas A&M hosts Ball St with the same result; Southern Miss on the big end for once, against Austin Peay, and the same with Kent St against Delaware St; Central Michigan and Northern Illinois with easy wins against the FCS, but Texas St and Troy have their hands full with Prairie View and Charleston Southern respectively.

Also on the FBS docket and in the flip-a-coin section (we disown that we bet these against the spread….): South Alabama @ Nebraska (-27); UTEP @ Texas Tech (-21); Army @ UConn (-9); UCF @ Stanford (-19), Sacramento St @ Washington (-34), Northwestern St @ UL-Lafayette (-24), and Nicholls St @ UL-Monroe (-31). 

FINALLY, SOME FCS ONLY GAMES WE’RE WATCHING AND LEANING ON… Weber St @ North Dakota St (-26) [all of these are Sagarin rating spreads]; Eastern Washington @ Northern Iowa (pick’m); Southern Utah @ South Dakota St (-14); the game WE’LL be at this weekendà Portland St @ Idaho St (+1) – go, Bengals!; South Dakota @ UC Davis (-1); Lafayette @ Delaware (-8); Elon @ Gardner-Webb (+3.5); Incarnate Word @ McNeese St (-25); Western Carolina @ The Citadel (-8); Northern Colorado @ Houston Baptist (+16.5), but much improved this year!; Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina St (+8) - if CC is serious about joining the Sun Belt in FBS next year, they win this comfortably; Tennessee Tech @ Wofford (-13); Stetson @ Mercer (-28); St. Francis @ Towson (-10); Drake @ North Dakota (-23); Alcorn St @ Alabama St (-1); and Central Connecticut St at Stony Brook (-18). There ARE other games, but we’re not watching them this weekend – they’re either expected blowouts, boring match-ups, against D2 or D3 schools, or all of the above. Besides, these are plenty! Your other sites probably give you, what, a dozen picks? We give you EIGHTY-SEVEN NCAA GAMES! (And we'll STILL out percentage them all!) PLUS sixteen NFL, four AFL, and four CFL games...we've just prophesied on 111 football games for you! 

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