Prophecies for the Fourth Week of September, 2015!

This will be the LAST one we publish if we don’t hear from a few people IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS!

As blogmeister, I'm starting to wonder if there's anyone actually reading all of these predictions and posts and thoughts and compilations of data regarding American and Canadian and Australian Football.

This stuff (after the Lord and my children) is my passion - I love these sports, particularly Aussie Rules and NCAA level football. But if what I'm doing isn't of interest to others, I'm going to cut WAY BACK on what I'm doing here - it's a ton of work to prepare predictions and information about 253 college teams every week during the season, and frankly, if it's only for my own entertainment, it's not worth it!

SO, if you're reading this blog and want it to continue more or less as I'm doing...

COMMENT ON THIS POST THIS WEEK!

Otherwise, I'm going to assume it's a waste of my time. Thanks in advance for responding!

OK…On to the predictions!

AFL)

Hawthorn to win and cover the 9 ½ point spread in their favor AT Fremantle, the minor premiers.

West Coast to win, but North Melbourne to beat the 31 ½ point spread against them in Perth. By the way, we did bet on the Kangaroos to move through past Sydney on afl.com; but we predicted with our heart here. If we misled you, we’re sorry.

The winners meet in the Grand Final a week from Saturday at the Melbourne Cricket Grounds, “the home of footy”. If Fremantle loses, it’ll be the first time in ten years that the team finishing in first place during the season does NOT go to the Grand Final.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 147-56 overall (72%); 120-83 against the spread (59% "ATS").

CFL)

Calgary beats the nine-point spread in their favor at Winnipeg.

Edmonton beats the eleven-point spread in their favor against the BC Lions.

Ottawa over Toronto, but we’re hedging and saying Toronto covers the 2 ½ point spread.

Saskatchewan might pull the upset over Montreal, a one point favorite. We’re betting that way.

Current standings have made for some separation – Calgary’s 9-3, with Edmonton a game behind them in the West at 8-4. They might be the ONLY Western teams in the playoffs, unless BC or Winnipeg step it up from their four win seasons, because the CFL has a “crossover” arrangement where if the fourth place team of ONE division is better than the third place team in the other, THAT team gets the third playoff spot in the OTHER division! Right now, with Hamilton 8-4, amazing Ottawa 7-4, Toronto 6-5, and Montreal 5-6, that would be the case…but there are still seven rounds to play!

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 29-23 overall (56%), 2-2 this week; 28-23-1 ATS (55%)

NFL)

Giants (-4) win and cover v Redskins on Thursday.

Bengals (+2.5) upset Ravens.

Panthers (-3) win and cover and slaughter the Saints.

Raiders (+3.5) cover but Browns win.

Cowboys (+1.5) may be short of stars, but they upset the Falcons.

Texans (-6.5) over Bucs, Vikings (-2.5) over Chargers, and Patriots (-14) over Jaguars – all cover.

Jets (-2) win by more than 2 against the Eagles.

Steelers (-1.5) should cover against the Rams. Should.

Titans (+3.5) upset the Colts at home.

Cardinals (-6.5) by more than a TD over the 49ers.

Bills (+2.5) beat the Dolphins straight up.

The Bears (+14.5) and Lions (+3) BOTH beat the spread but lose, to the Seahawks and Broncos, respectively.

Finally, on Monday night, the Packers (-7) over the Chiefs even with the points.

Our tiers for the NFL going into week 3 –

   A)    Patriots (2-0), Bengals (2-0), Packers (2-0), Panthers (2-0), and Cardinals (2-0).

   B)     Bills (1-1), Steelers (1-1), Broncos (2-0), Cowboys (2-0; only tier B because of Romo), Falcons (2-0), Seahawks (0-2).

   C)     Jets (2-0), Charges (1-1), Chiefs (1-1), Giants (0-2), Vikings (1-1), and the 49ers (1-1).

   D)    Ravens (0-2), Texans (0-2), Redskins (1-1), Lions (0-2), and Rams (1-1).

   E)     Dolphins (1-1), Colts (0-2), Raiders (1-1), Eagles (1-1), and Bears (0-2).

   F)      Browns (1-1), Jaguars (1-1), Titans (1-1), Saints (0-3) and Bucs (1-1).

You’ll notice they’re hardly by record; more so by performance. Tier A has it in high gear. Tier B is doing pretty well. Tier C, you could see winning almost any random game. Tier D isn’t bad, but have major issues to deal with. Tier E teams are defined by their major flaws right now. Tier F is a dumpster fire: it’s early in the season, however, and fires can be put out or even turned to fuel! We’ll aim for our regular eight full tiers next week.

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 19-13 straight up, 19-13 against the spread this season. (Both 59%.)

NCAA)  As always, we split these hundred or so games up into levels of interest…and alas, this is probably the LEAST interesting week of the regular season, as teams recuperate in preparation for the bulk of their league schedule. But while there are no MARQUEE GAMES like the Alabama/Ole Miss slobberknocker last Saturday night (that ‘Bama almost pulled a Miami Heat in and came back to win after their “fans” had already left the building!), there are quite a few interesting games, especially if (like me) you’re a fan of the entire sport of college football, D1, teams #1-253!

HERE GOES! These are the most interesting games (in our humble opinion, with our humble opinion attached!). By the way, since we didn’t share the new tier division (we’re already at our full spread of twenty FBS tiers, A through T, with the FCS ranks extending down another eight levels for now into Z, a, and b), we’ll incorporate that into our predictions as well… As always, we’re using the consensus point spread on Tuesday for solely FBS games, and the Sagarin prediction for games involving FCS teams.

Conference tilts of interest:

Georgia Tech (C, -9.5) to win and cover against Duke (I) in the ACC.

Oklahoma St (H, -3) to win and cover at Texas (J) in the Big 12 (which has ten teams, as opposed to the Big Ten, which has 14…)

TCU (D, -7.5) to win, but Texas Tech (H) covers (that last half-point…) in the Big 12.

Washington (I, +4.5) to upset Cal-Berkeley (I) at home in the Pac 12.

Oregon (D, -11) to win but not cover at home against Utah (D) in the Pac 12.

USC (C, -5.5), to win and cover at Arizona St (H) in the Pac 12.

UCLA (B, -4), to win at Arizona (F), but by less than four, in the Pac 12.

Tennessee (C, +1.5) upsets Florida (F) in Gainesville in the SEC.

Missouri (F, +3), despite last week’s debacle, upsets Kentucky (G) in the SEC.

Texas A&M (B, -7.5) wins and covers against Arkansas (I) in the JerryDome in the SEC.

Mississippi St (C, +2.5) upsets Auburn (E) in Auburn in the SEC.

Memphis (I, -10.5) wins by less than that against Cincinnati (K) in the American.

Florida International (R) wins but can’t cover against newbie Charlotte (T) in Conference USA.

New Mexico (Q, -3) covers at Wyoming (Q), last place in the ESPNPI, in the Mountain West.

And finally, San Jose St (O, -4.5) wins and covers at home against Fresno St, in the MW West, where the entire conference schedule may be determined by who has the home field that game…

Non-conference tilts of interest:

Boston College (F, -4) beats Northern Illinois (H) by more than Ohio St did last week!

LSU has to GO to Syracuse? Who set THAT up? Anyway, the Tigers (A, -24) win but don’t cover because the Orange (M) turn off the heaters…

Indiana (J, -3) cover and win against Wake Forest (P), which Sagarin has as pick’m.

On Friday night, Boise St (E, -2.5) handles Virginia (K) with ease in the east.

Up the road, Virginia Tech (D, -8) wins in East Carolina (K) Saturday by more than eight.

BYU (B, +5.5) goes to Michigan (H), beats the spread but I can’t bring myself to say they win.

Fascinating game: Kansas (Q, +12.5) at Rutgers (S). Let’s split the difference: Knights are a mess, but let’s say they win by a point or so over the worst team in Power 5 football.

Ohio (H, +10.5) may be a better team than Minnesota (I) right now, but they won’t be able to handle the Dramatic Gopher and lose by a missed field goal.

Purdue (K, +1) isn’t favored over MAC’s Bowling Green (J), but we think they’ll upset them at home.

West Virginia (E, -17) all over old rival Maryland (L), gone to heck in the Big 10.

Rivalling Rutgers/Kansas for mediocrity, Eastern Michigan (Q, -2.5) wins and covers against Army-West Point (R).

SMU (N, -3) hosts FCS strongmen James Madison (P) (and is forgiven for doing so – any spread under ten makes it a worthy competition!) and wins and covers for its trouble.

UTSA (Q, +9) hosts Colorado St (N) and should stay within a TD for their troubles, though the Rams win.

Struggling with this one: Buffalo (P, -2) over Nevada by 3 or more, as much as I want to believe in UNR!

Marshall (I, -9), only a single-digit favorite at Kent St (P)? Sigh. How the mighty have fallen. Give the points.

We believe in Toledo (G, -7.5), but that extra half-point keeps us from saying they cover against Arkansas St (L), whom we also believe in.

Games involving 1-A/1-AA matchups, or just amusing blowouts on a slow weekend…

Louisville (F, -20) wins and covers against Samford (S). Samford? Well, at least they have a WIN, Cardinals…

NC St (D, -17) covers AT South Alabama. How did the Jaguars get an ACC team to go THERE?

North Carolina (I, -39) annihilates Delaware (V – you hadn’t realized there WAS a “V”, had you?)

Fool me once… Michigan St (B, -27) fails to cover against Central Mich (M), and Ohio St (B, -31.5) fails to cover against Western Mich (P). Of course, I’m assuming they win…but NIU came close!

Iowa (G, -24.5) by more than that over North Texas (T, the lowest FBS goes…).

Nebraska (G, -22) can’t cover against Southern Miss (M), but Northwestern (E, -18.5 over Ball St – O) and Wisconsin (C, -24.5 over Hawai’i – O) will.

Baylor’s (C, -34.5) rout of the week is over Rice (M), sadly the best of their opponents so far. Next Week, Texas Tech.

Notre Dame (A, -28.5) will still be scoring on Tuesday against U Mass (R).

Technically, Friday’s game of Stanford (E, -15.5) at Oregon St (N) could have been in the conference section, but it gives the game too much credit. Or maybe it gives the Beavers too much credit…

Colorado (M, -45), needs a game like this, at home against 28^th tiered Nicholls St (“b” – not “B”, the second tier, but “b”, the second time around) to win and beat even this spread.

But it’s not as bad as Georgia (A, -58…that’s right; fifty-eight) who I suspect will ease up before they cover that against SWAC favorite-but-in-another-universe Southern University (T).

South Carolina (H, -14.5) covers against UCF (L) and Mississippi (A, -24.5) covers at home v Vandy (I).

Western Kentucky (H, -20.5) should easily handle Miami of Ohio (Q).

…but not as easily as UTEP (R, -30) defeats bottom feeder Incarnate Word (“b”).

Houston (E, -15) is a bad host to Texas St (P), but not as bad as Alabama (B, -38) will be to UL-Monroe after the Tide lost last weekend at home. They’ll aim for a hundred…

The dregs of the tawdry FBS line-up:

Penn St (L, -14.5) covers hosting San Diego St (Q).

Illinois (M, -6.5) wins a close game against Middle Tennessee (K), who might win. Or not.

Navy (G, -6.5) gets conference win #2 by 7 or more at U Conn (N).

Appalachian St (K, -7.5) wins but doesn’t cover at Old Dominion (P).

Louisiana Tech (G, -14.5) covers over FIU (O).

UL-Lafayette (M, +8.5) upsets Akron!

UNLV (Q, -17) defeats FCS contender Idaho St (S) but not by seventeen.

Here are the FCS games we’re interested in enough to express an opinion:

Liberty (N, +3.5) will upset Southern Illinois (Q).

Montana State (-5, Q) covers against Cal Poly (O), against our metric’s advice!

Montana (O, -7) covers at home v Northern Arizona (R).

North Dakota (S, -1.5) by that and then some against UC Davis (X).

Weber St (T, -8) covers at Northern Colorado.

Albany (X, -6) wins by less than six against Duquesne (V).

Towson (S, -8.5) covers at Elon (W).

Villanova (R, -30) can’t cover 30 over Penn (Z). (But they do win.)

Abilene Christian (U, -3.5) covers against Stephen F Austin (V).

Northwestern St (U, +4) upsets Central Arkansas (U).

Houston Baptist (“a”, +47) stays within 46 of Sam Houston St (S).

Charleston Southern (T, +9.5) upsets The Citadel (V).

Coastal Carolina (O, -22) gets more of a fight than they want from Bryant (U), but wins.

Dayton (of the much besieged Pioneer League, U, -12) covers and defeats first year Kennesaw St (a).

Can Chattanooga (P, -29.5) cover against Presbyterian (W)? We’re guessing no.

Furman (R, -23), fresh off their win at UCF, covers against VMI (X) at home.

Eastern Kentucky (P, -27) by that and then some against woeful Austin Peay (“a”).

Tennessee St (U, -13) may beat Florida A&M (X), but not by two TDs…

Morehead St may be an “X” and still favored by 19.5, but it’s Davidson – give the points.

Jacksonville (U, -17.5) may not be Jacksonville St (M, our FCS top team), but they can beat Marist (Y). Just…not by 17.

Yale (U, -18) covers v Cornell (a); Lehigh (U, +12.5) stays close but loses at Princeton (W), and even though legendary 22-game losing streak-Columbia (“b”) is actually a half-point favorite at home v Georgetown (X)…, yeah, we’re picking Georgetown to win.

OH! BONUS PICK! Bethune-Cookman (T, -25) routs traditional thumping bag Savannah St (tier “b”, of course!).

OUR PREDICTION RECORD: 208-50 (81%) straight up, 136-121-1 against the spread (53%) this season.