Results of our Prophecies for the
Fourth Week of September, 2015:
You’ll see results in a different font,
following the prediction itself. Hope that makes it clear…if not, we’ll try
something else next time! Let me know in the comments whether it works for you
or not. ('CAUSE IT MADE IT SO MUCH FASTER FOR US!)
AFL)
Hawthorn to win and cover the 9 ½ point spread in
their favor AT Fremantle, the minor premiers.
YES – won by 27!
West Coast to win,
but North Melbourne to beat the 31 ½ point spread against them in Perth.
YES – won by 23!
Two and zero winners, two and zero against the
spread! The winners meet in the Grand Final a week from Saturday at the
Melbourne Cricket Grounds, “the home of footy”.
OUR PREDICTION
RECORD: 149-56 overall (72%); 122-83 against the spread (59%
"ATS"). We also currently LEAD our segment of the afl.com.au “tipping”
(predicting) finals pool with just the one game to go next week. Crossing our
fingers!
CFL)
Calgary beats the nine-point spread in their favor at
Winnipeg. WON BY THREE, NOT NINE.
Edmonton beats the eleven-point spread in their favor
against the BC Lions. WON BY SIX, NOT 11.
Ottawa over Toronto, but we’re hedging and saying
Toronto covers the 2 ½ point spread.
OTTAWA WON BY NEGATIVE NINE, NOT LESS THAN 2 ½ …
WELL, S’POSE THAT IS LESS…
Saskatchewan might pull
the upset over Montreal, a one point favorite. We’re betting that way. WON by twelve, not one. Go figure!
THIS
WEEKEND’S RESULTS were weird! Games 1 and 2, we got the winner but not
the spread; game 3 we got the spread but not the winner, and in game 4 we got
both by picking the 1-11 team to pull the upset!
OUR PREDICTION
RECORD: 32-24 overall (57%), 3-1 this week; 30-24-2 ATS (56%)
NFL)
Giants (-4) win and cover v Redskins on Thursday. YES – won by eleven.
Bengals (+2.5) upset Ravens. YES – 28-24.
Panthers
(-3) win and cover and slaughter the Saints. WELL, WIN AND COVER:
27-22.
Raiders (+3.5) cover but Browns win. RIGHT AND WRONG: Raiders,
27-20.
Cowboys
(+1.5) may be short of stars, but they upset
the Falcons. True
at halftime, but atlanta won the second half and the game, 39-28.
Texans (-6.5) over Bucs, Vikings (-2.5) over Chargers, and Patriots (-14) over Jaguars – all cover.
YES, YES, AND YES: Texans
by 10, Vikings by 17, and pats by 34!
Jets (-2) win by more than 2 against the Eagles. Whoops! Eagles,
24-17.
Steelers (-1.5) should cover against the Rams. Should. Did. 12-6, even without ben.
Titans (+3.5) upset the Colts at home. Almost: indy by just
2, 35-33.
Cardinals (-6.5) by more than a TD over the 49ers. I’d say 47-7 counts
as more…
Bills (+2.5) beat
the Dolphins straight up.
And then some…
The Bears (+14.5)
and Lions (+3) BOTH beat the
spread but lose, to the Seahawks and
Broncos, respectively. Screwed up on the bears – ten drives, ten punts, no points –
and Peyton made sure we lost the other bet, too.
Finally, on Monday night, the Packers
(-7) over the Chiefs even with the points. To be decided…
THIS WEEKEND’S
RESULTS: 11-4 winners; 11-4 against the spread; Monday night still to go…We
picked the Buffalo victory when no one else did, which helped.
OUR PREDICTION
RECORD: 30-17 straight up, 30-17 against the spread this season. (Both 64%.)
NCAA) HERE
GOES! These are the most interesting games (in our humble opinion, with our
humble opinion attached!). By the way, since we didn’t share the new tier division (we’re already at
our full spread of twenty FBS tiers, A through T, with the FCS
ranks extending down another eight levels for now into Z, a, and b), we’ll
incorporate that into our predictions as well… As always, we’re using the consensus point spread on Tuesday for solely
FBS games, and the Sagarin prediction for games involving FCS teams.
Conference tilts of
interest:
Georgia Tech (C, -9.5) to win
and cover against Duke (I) in the ACC. Wrong! Duke upsets, 34-20!
Oklahoma St (H, -3) to win
and cover at Texas (J) in the Big 12 (which
has ten teams, as opposed to the Big Ten, which has 14…) won but with a fg
at the end. 30-27.
TCU (D, -7.5) to win, but Texas Tech (H)
covers (that last half-point…) in the Big 12. Won by three.
Washington (I, +4.5) to upset
Cal-Berkeley (I) at home in the Pac 12. Wrong! Cal 30-24.
Oregon (D, -11) to win but not cover at home
against Utah (D) in the Pac 12. Well, UTAH had its biggest win as a power conference team, humiliating
Oregon in Eugene, 62-20!
USC (C, -5.5), to win and cover at Arizona St
(H) in the Pac 12. And then some…
UCLA (B, -4), to win at Arizona (F), but
by less than four, in the Pac 12. 33 is less than four, right? No? Shoot.
Tennessee (C, +1.5) upsets Florida (F) in Gainesville
in the SEC. BOY, they should have…lost a wild
game by one, 28-27! I guess we still covered…
Missouri (F, +3), despite
last week’s debacle, upsets Kentucky (G) in the SEC. nope. KY 21, mo 13.
Texas A&M (B, -7.5) wins
and covers against Arkansas (I) in the JerryDome in the SEC. Wins but doesn’t cover – went to
ot, 28-21.
Mississippi St (C, +2.5) upsets
Auburn (E) in Auburn in the SEC. Was that an
upset? 17-9.
Memphis (I, -10.5) wins by less than that against Cincinnati
(K) in the American. Yes, won 53-46.
Florida International (R) wins but
can’t cover against newbie Charlotte (T) in Conference USA. We won this by half-a-point, 17-7 FIU.
New Mexico (Q, -3) covers
at Wyoming (Q), last place in the ESPNPI, in the Mountain West. Yep. 38-28, ten-point win. Ding,
ding, ding…
And
finally, San Jose St (O, -4.5) wins and covers at home against
Fresno St, in the MW West, where the entire conference schedule may be
determined by who has the home field that game…YeS, 49-23, SJSU
Non-conference
tilts of interest:
Boston College (F, -4) beats
Northern Illinois (H) by more than Ohio St did last week!
Ehh..no, they only won by three (17-14). Close…
LSU has to GO to Syracuse? Who set THAT up?
Anyway, the Tigers (A, -24) win but don’t cover because the Orange (M)
turn off the heaters…correct – they won by ten, 34-24.
Indiana (J, -3) cover and win against Wake Forest
(P), which Sagarin has as pick’m. yes. 31-24.
On Friday night, Boise
St (E, -2.5) handles Virginia (K) with ease in the east. With ease. 56-14.
Up the road, Virginia
Tech (D, -8) wins in East Carolina (K) Saturday by more than
eight. WE MEANT LOSE BY
SEVEN. Didn’t we? No? Oh well. Missed this one. ECU 35, vt 28.
BYU (B, +5.5) goes to Michigan (H), beats the spread
but I can’t bring myself to say they win.
They didn’t. they barely made a first down.
Michigan, 31-0. We won but missed ats.
Fascinating game:
Kansas (Q, +12.5) at Rutgers (S). Let’s split the difference: Knights are a mess, but let’s say they win
by a point or so over the worst team in Power 5 football. Rutgers won by 13. Looks like the oddsmakers were
right…
Ohio (H, +10.5) may be a better team than Minnesota (I)
right now, but they won’t be able to handle the Dramatic Gopher
and lose by a missed field goal. EXACTLY RIGHT. 27-24, MINNESOTA.
Purdue (K, +1) isn’t favored over MAC’s Bowling Green (J), but we
think they’ll upset them at home.
WE WERE
WRONG. Bgsu SCORED A TD WITH NINE SECONDS TO GO TO WIN 35-28.
West Virginia (E, -17) all over old rival Maryland (L), gone
to heck in the Big 10. YOU MIGHT SAY
SO. 45-6, AND IT WASN’T THAT CLOSE.
Rivalling Rutgers/Kansas for mediocrity, Eastern Michigan (Q, -2.5) wins and
covers against Army-West Point (R). Wrong. 58-36, Army.
SMU (N, -3) hosts FCS strongmen James Madison (P) (and is forgiven for doing so – any spread
under ten makes it a worthy competition!) and wins and covers for
its trouble. We meant JMU wins
and covers for its trouble? No, that’s not what we said. (What we WISH
we said…)
UTSA (Q, +9) hosts Colorado
St (N) and should stay within a TD for their troubles, though the
Rams win. Perfect.
33-31, rams.
Struggling with this one: Buffalo (P, -2) over Nevada by 3 or more, as much as I want
to believe in UNR!
SHOULD’VE
BELIEVED. 24-21, WOLFPACK. CLOSE GAME, AS EXPECTED, THOUGH.
Marshall (I, -9), only a single-digit favorite at Kent St
(P)? Sigh. How the mighty have fallen. Give the points. OVERTIME.
We believe in Toledo (G, -7.5), but that extra half-point keeps us from saying
they cover against Arkansas St
(L), whom we also believe in. should’ve kept our belief – Toledo by
thirty.
Games
involving 1-A/1-AA matchups, or just amusing blowouts on a slow weekend…
Louisville (F, -20) wins and covers against Samford (S). Samford? Well, at least they have a WIN, Cardinals…45-3, cards. Surprise…
NC St (D, -17) covers AT South Alabama. How did the Jaguars get an ACC team to go
THERE? 63-13 NC
ST. again, surprise…
North Carolina (I, -39) annihilates Delaware (V – you hadn’t realized there WAS a “V”, had
you?) Not an annihilation: Delaware
covered, as unc “only” won 41-14.
Fool
me once… Michigan St (B, -27) fails to
cover against Central Mich (M) (correct:
30-10), and Ohio St (B, -31.5) fails to cover
against Western Mich (P). CORRECT,
38-12. TWO-FOR-TWO.
Iowa (G, -24.5) by more than that over North Texas (T, the lowest FBS goes…).TOO EASY. 62-16.
Nebraska (G, -22) can’t cover against Southern Miss (M)
(correct:
36-28), but Northwestern (E, -18.5 over Ball St –
O) (NOPE
- 24-19) and Wisconsin (yep –
28-zip) (C, -24.5 over
Hawai’i – O) will.
Baylor’s (C, -34.5) rout of the week is over Rice (M), sadly
the best of their opponents so far. (70-17
COUNTS AS A ROUT.) Next Week, Texas Tech.
Notre Dame (A, -28.5) will still be scoring on Tuesday against
U Mass (R). SO
IT’S 62-27 AFTER FOUR QUARTERS, EXCEPT…YES, THE IRISH SCORED AGAIN…
Technically, Friday’s game of Stanford (E, -15.5) at Oregon St (N) could have been in the
conference section, but it gives the game too much credit. Or maybe it gives
the Beavers too much credit…
OK, OSU was
decent, but STANFORD COVERED, 42-24.
Colorado (M, -45), needs a
game like this, at home against 28th tiered Nicholls St (“b” –
not “B”, the second tier, but “b”, the second time around) to win and beat
even this spread. AND THEY DID. 48-0. The coach’s son even scored.
But it’s not as bad as Georgia
(A, -58…that’s right; fifty-eight)
who I suspect will ease up before they cover that against SWAC
favorite-but-in-another-universe Southern
University (T). Yes: 48-6.
South Carolina (H, -14.5) covers against UCF (L) barely,
31-14, but yes! and Mississippi (A, -24.5) covers at
home v Vandy (I).
Western Kentucky (H, -20.5) should easily handle Miami of Ohio (Q).56-14
COUNTS AS “Easily”.
…but not as easily as UTEP (R, -30) defeats bottom feeder
Incarnate Word (“b”).
Houston (E, -15) is a bad host to Texas St (P) (yes, 59-14
counts as a bad host),
but not as
bad as Alabama (B, -38) will be to
UL-Monroe after the Tide lost last weekend at
home. They’ll aim for a hundred…but settle for 34. Hmmm.
The
dregs of the tawdry FBS line-up:
Penn St (L, -14.5) covers hosting San Diego St (Q).just barely
(37-21), but then, we lost a few that closely, too, so we’ll take this one.
Illinois (M, -6.5) wins a close game against Middle Tennessee (K), who might win. Or not. Not.
27-25, illini. Nailed it.
Navy (G, -6.5) gets conference win #2 by 7 or more
at U Conn (N). won by 10, 28-18.
Appalachian St (K, -7.5) wins but doesn’t cover at Old Dominion (P). won and covered by the end of
the first quarter. 49-0.
Louisiana Tech (G, -14.5) covers over FIU (O). No they
don’t! La-tech by ten, 27-17.
UL-Lafayette (M, +8.5) upsets Akron! No THEY
DON’T! Akron, 35-14!
UNLV (Q, -17) defeats FCS contender Idaho St (S) but not by seventeen. No. BY 72. DOES THAT COUNT? (80-8,
VEGAS.)
Here
are the FCS games we’re interested in enough to express an opinion:
Liberty
(N, +3.5) will
upset Southern Illinois (Q). Bah! Siu 34-13…
Montana State (-5, Q) covers against Cal Poly (O), against our
metric’s advice!
AND OUR
METRIC ISN’T AS SMART AS WE ARE: 45-28, msu!
Montana (O, -7) covers at home v Northern Arizona (R). by nine, 23-14.
North Dakota (S, -1.5) by that and then some against UC Davis
(X).
by seven. 35-28.
Weber St (T, -8) covers at Northern Colorado. EASILY:
38-17.
Albany (X, -6) wins by less than six against Duquesne (V). Turns out
three is less than six. 17-14, Albany.
Towson (S, -8.5) covers at Elon (W). no they
don’t – they don’t even win. 17-13, elon.
Villanova (R, -30) can’t cover 30 over Penn (Z). (But they do win.)
no
they don’t: Penn, 24-13.
Abilene Christian (U, -3.5) covers against Stephen F Austin (V). missed covering by a half-point: they
won by three, 35-32. Still counts as a loss ats. Durn.
Northwestern
St (U, +4) upsets
Central Arkansas (U). if they
did, it wasn’t on the scoreboard…maybe they made a mess in the locker room.
(49-21, cau.)
Houston
Baptist (“a”, +47) stays
within 46 of Sam Houston St (S).
close
– 63-14…
Charleston
Southern (T, +9.5) upsets
The Citadel (V). was it really an upset? 33-20, csu.
Coastal
Carolina (O, -22) gets
more of a fight than they want from Bryant
(U), but wins. Boo-yah! 31-17, coastal! CC is a good team, but bryant’s
better than you think!
Dayton (of the much besieged Pioneer League, U, -12) covers and defeats first year
Kennesaw St (a). perhaps Kennesaw is a real team…31-27, Dayton.
Can Chattanooga
(P, -29.5) cover against Presbyterian
(W)? We’re guessing no. 21-0, so “NO”.
Furman (R, -23), fresh off
their win at UCF, covers against VMI (X) at home. Nope: won
by 3.
Eastern
Kentucky (P, -27) by
that and then some against woeful Austin Peay (“a”). by 38.
Tennessee
St (U, -13) may beat
Florida A&M (X), but not by two
TDs…but
we were close. 16 point win, not 13.
Morehead St may be an “X” and still favored by 19.5, but it’s Davidson
– give the points.
And lo,
there was carnage: 34-0, and it wasn’t that close.
Jacksonville (U, -17.5) may not be Jacksonville St (M, our FCS
top team), but they can beat Marist
(Y). Just…not by 17. How about
by four? 20-16.
Yale (U, -18) covers v Cornell (a) (well, they won, but only by
seven, 33-26); Lehigh (U, +12.5) stays close but
loses at Princeton (W), and even though legendary
22-game losing streak-Columbia (“b”)
is actually a half-point favorite at
home v Georgetown (X)…, yeah, we’re picking Georgetown to win. Good call, ff: 31-24,
Georgetown.
OH! BONUS PICK! Bethune-Cookman (T, -25) routs
traditional thumping bag Savannah St
(tier “b”, of course!). DUH! 42-12.
B-C. WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?
THIS
WEEKEND’S RESULTS: we did fairly well! 73-14 (84%) straight up, and 52-34-1
against the spread (60%), our best week yet.
OUR
PREDICTION RECORD: 281-64 (81%) straight up, 188-155-2 against the spread (55%)
this season.
No comments:
Post a Comment