Here are the current records and ratings as we move in the fall - with three countries in three different parts of their seasons:
Down under, in Australia, the season is over and the Finals start this weekend! Eight of our top nine rated teams are the eight teams in the playoffs, and the ninth place team (Port Adelaide) finished with a flurry to tie for sixth in the ratings, just a game out of contention. Here are the seedings, the games this weekend, and how our Following Football Ratings compare:
1. Hawthorn (85.7), seeded third, travelling to Perth to play on Saturday against...
2. West Coast (84.7), seeded second, in a blockbuster of a Qualifying Final.
3. Sydney (76.7), seeded fourth, also flying west for a Qualifying Final at Fremantle.
4. Richmond (72.7), seeded fifth, hosting an Elimination Final against North Melbourne.
5. Adelaide (70.8), seeded seventh, travels to Western in the other Elimination Final.
6. Fremantle (62.9), slumping but still seeded first, hosting Sydney in a Qualifying Final.
8. North Melbourne (62.5) goes to Richmond as the eighth seed, and
9. Western Bulldogs (61.7), hosts Adelaide as the sixth seed.
--> In the Elimination Final, as the name suggests, the loser is eliminated, and the winner goes on. But in the Qualifying Final, the top four teams play each other: the losers plays the winners of the elimination games, and the winners get next week off and play the survivors of those matches for the chance at the title in the Grand Final. That's why being top four is so important in the AFL: that "double chance" has meant that no team from below fourth place has won Grand Finals in twenty years! You can see who's hot and who's struggling right now: as good as Freo was early, they've been ordinary the last two months; while Hawthorn and West Coast are definitively the best teams going right now - and have to play each other right off the bat. It would NOT surprise us to see them meet again in three weeks at the MCG in the last game of the year...
In Canada, we're halfway through the season, and the ratings are lining up more and more with the standings:
1. Hamilton (43.9) leads the East at 7-3.
2. Calgary (40.4) leads the West at 8-2.
3. Edmonton (34.7) is two games back of Calgary at 6-4.
4. Montreal (30.9) is climbing and hot, even though they're still just 4-6.
5. BC Lions (28.0) moved up with a big win this weekend, passing...
6. Toronto (27.1), who sits in second at 6-4 in the East.
7. Saskatchewan (25.0) finally won a game and sits 1-9, but they've been close all along!
8. Ottawa (21.6) continues to progress, having started the year at 10. (They're 5-4.)
9. Winnipeg (18.9) sits at 3-7, floundering on most fronts.
In the US, of course, we're just getting started! We consider it far too early to rank teams - preseason polls are counterproductive, in our opinion. However, we do take it upon ourselves to group teams into tiers, for prognostication purposes, so we have something we can base our predictions on. So, here are our tiers for the NFL, the FBS, and the FCS, as of September 8th, 2015:
NFL - Tier I: New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Seattle, and Arizona.
Tier II: Buffalo, Miami, Cincinnati, Houston, San Diego, Kansas City, NY Giants, Detroit, Minnesota, Carolina, New Orleans, Atlanta, and St. Louis.
Tier III: NY Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Oakland, Washington, Chicago, Tampa, and San Francisco.
FBS ("Division 1A"): Tier I: Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Michigan St, Baylor, Oklahoma, UCLA, USC, Utah, Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Louisville, NC St, Wisconsin, Oregon, Miami-FL, TCU, Boise St, Arizona St, Mississippi St, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Alabama, and Texas A&M.
Tier II: Temple, Houston, Navy, Boston College, North Carolina, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Kansas St, Louisiana Tech, BYU, Colorado St, Stanford, Florida, South Carolina, Appalachian St, Cincinnati, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas, Western Kentucky, Northern Illinois, San Diego St, California, Kentucky, Memphis, Duke, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, West Virginia, Marshall, Washington, and Arizona.
Tier III: East Carolina, U Conn, Wake Forest, Pitt, Virginia, Indiana, Penn St, Rutgers, Kansas, Texas Tech, Middle Tennessee, Rice, Southern Miss, UTEP, UTSA, Bowling Green, Toledo, Western Michigan, New Mexico, Utah St, Fresno St, Hawai'i, Nevada, Oregon St, Arkansas St, Texas St, UCF, USF, Syracuse, FIU, Old Dominion, Ohio, U Mass, UNLV, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Central Michigan, Air Force, San Jose St, Vanderbilt, and UL-Lafayette.
Tier IV: SMU, Tulsa, FAU, Army-WP, Akron, Wyoming, New Mexico St, South Alabama, Troy, UL-Monroe, Tulane, Kent St, Georgia St, Idaho, Charlotte, North Texas, Buffalo, Miami-OH, Ball St, Eastern Michigan, Washington St and Colorado.
FCS ("Division 1-AA") - The numbers are designed to line up with the FBS schools - generally, the top tier here matches Tier III in the FBS, so we number these III through VI for now:
Tier III: North Dakota St, Montana, Montana St, Southern Utah, James Madison, Illinois St, South Dakota St, Southern Illinois, Youngstown St, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston St, Idaho St, Northern Arizona, Portland St, New Hampshire, William & Mary, Eastern Illinois, SE Louisiana, Chattanooga, Eastern Washington, Western Illinois and Jacksonville St.
Tier IV: North Dakota, Weber St, Charleston Southern, Towson, Missouri St, South Dakota, Bryant, St Francis-PA, SE Missouri St, Tennessee St, Tennessee Tech, UT-Martin, Drake, Jacksonville, Abilene Christian, Northwestern St-LA, Stephen F Austin, Sacramento St, Wofford, Gardner-Webb, Presbyterian, Dayton, San Diego, Central Arkansas, Furman, Cal Poly SLO, Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Richmond, Villanova, Northern Iowa, and Samford.
Tier V: UC Davis, Delaware, Stony Brook, Duquesne, Sacred Heart, Wagner, Murray St, Campbell, Marist, Morehead St, Stetson, Lamar, McNeese St, Mercer, The Citadel, Western Carolina, Northern Colorado, Albany, Central Connecticut, Monmouth and Maine.
Tier VI: Elon, Rhode Island, Austin Peay, Davidson, Valparaiso, Incarnate Word, Nicholls St, E Tennessee St, Kennesaw St, Robert Morris, Butler, Houston Baptist and VMI.
Also technically in the FCS are the Ivy and Patriot Leagues, but since they choose not to compete in the championships, we've dubbed them the intramural division of 1-AA, and ranked them separately (these rankings still mesh with the FBS and other FCS tiers, however):
Tier IV: Harvard, Bucknell, Colgate, Fordham, Dartmouth, Yale, and Holy Cross.
Tier V: Brown, Penn, Princeton, Georgetown, Lehigh and Lafayette.
Tier VI: Columbia and Cornell. [Remember, the Ivy League hasn't played a game yet, so these are guesses based on past performance so far.]
Finally, there's the HBC, or the Historically Black Colleges, who also chose not to participate in the championships so they could have one of their own on ESPN! Here are their tiers after one game:
Tier IV: Bethune-Cookman, Morgan St, NC A&T, South Carolina St, Alabama St, Alcorn St, Southern and NC Central.
Tier V: Hampton, Howard, Norfolk St, Jackson St, Mississippi Valley St, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Delaware St, Texas Southern, Alabama A&M, Grambling St, and Prairie View A&M.
Tier VI: Savannah St and Florida A&M.
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