Thursday, October 1, 2015

Thursday Thoughts - NCAA D1 football forecasts (revised?)

As promised, here's a renewed look at the ten FBS and thirteen FCS conferences as they enter the meat of their in-conference season, and whether we need to reconsider the title favorites now that September's ended...

ACC) We're still settled on the order we liked in the summer in the Atlantic division: Clemson over Florida St (they host the Seminoles Nov 7), followed by NC St, Louisville, BC, Syracuse, and Wake. In the Coastal, though, we're leaning towards Miami (who hosts both GaTech and VaTech) to win, followed by GT, VT, Duke, and NC, with Pitt and Virginia pulling up the rear. (Clemson takes the championship game.)

B1G)  Thanks to home field advantage on the 21st of November, we still like Ohio St over Michigan St in the East, with Michigan a solid third, followed by Indiana for a change, PSU, Maryland and Rutgers. Similarly, we still like Wisconsin to meet them in the title game (and lose again), with the surprise Northwestern Wildcats in second, followed by (gulp) Illinois? Could Nebraska and Minnesota really be battling for 4th and 5th? Iowa and Purdue round out the field.

XII) The Big Twelve looks like it may end up a three-way tie between Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma, and we don't know what their new system for "One True Champion" will be with a three way tie! (Regardless, it'll keep the league out of the CFP for a second straight year!) We'll see if TCU recovers from its woes - if so, they're our favorites. Fourth will be West Virginia, followed by Texas Tech, K-State, OK State, Texas, Iowa St, and Kansas.

PAC-12) Stanford in the North, UCLA/USC winner in the South. (We'll go with the Bruins, as the freshman QB will get better faster than everyone else.) Oregon's relegated to second, with Cal, Washington, Wazzu, and Oregon St up north; Utah third if they win AT Arizona, Az St and Colorado. (We'll take UCLA for the title.)

S-E-C) If Georgia wins this Saturday, it's easy to imagine them going undefeated; certainly, they'll take the East division. We like Florida, Tennessee, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt to follow. Ole Miss will take the West, followed by A&M, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi St, Auburn and Arkansas. (Do you believe in the Dawgs? We do!)

American!) Temple v Houston for the title, and it would be easy to flip a coin for the winner. The East will end up Temple, Cincinnati, ECU, USF, UCF, and U Conn; the West as Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU, Tulsa, and Tulane. Pick a winner? Oh, all right...Houston.

Conference USA)  Western Kentucky's the best team in the East, but we're not convinced they'll take the division. Marshall should still be the best of the rest, regardless, and MTSU, Old Dominion, FIU, FAU, and Charlotte follow behind. Louisiana Tech is the only team of note in the West (to be followed by Southern Miss, back from long hiatus, Rice, UTEP, UTSA, and North Texas). Since WKU won earlier, we think WKU wins the title rematch, too.

#MACattack)  Ohio seems to be the strongest of the Eastern teams (with Bowling Green, Buffalo, Akron, U Mass, Kent St and Miami behind); and the traditional champion (of late) Northern Illinois should be able to beat the directional schools - so IF they can win at Toledo, they'll take the West AND the title game. At the moment, we'll say they won't - give Toledo the title....Third will be Central, then Western, with Ball St before Eastern.

Mountain West) Boise State. Next question.

(Oh, all right. If Utah St beats Colorado St this weekend, they take second; otherwise, reverse it. Follow with Air Force, New Mexico and Wyoming. The Western winner could be anyone - we'll pick Nevada, followed by San Diego St, San Jose St, Hawaii, Fresno St, and UNLV.)

Sun Belt) Just three teams to consider, and since Appalachian State hosts the other two, we'll take them for the title. Georgia Southern and Arkansas State follow close behind, and then there's a gap to UL-Lafayette, Troy, UL-Monroe, Texas St, South Alabama, and a three-way tussle ending with Georgia State ahead of New Mexico State ahead of poor Idaho.

--FF--

 Big Sky) Hard to know, but despite two early losses, Eastern Washington is still unbeaten in conference and has the inside track towards the title. Also looking at playoff contention are Montana St, Portland St, Montana, and maybe Cal Poly SLO. Next, we're looking at Southern Utah, Northern Arzona, Weber State, North Dakota, Idaho State, Sacramento State, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado.

Big South) Coastal Carolina may only have Liberty to fend off for the title, but both should make the playoffs. Their followers will be Charleston Southern, Presbyterian, Monmouth, Gardner-Webb, and Kennesaw St.

Colonial) James Madison plays AT William & Mary, so while both will be in the post-season, we think the latter wins the conference title. Maybe New Hampshire makes the playoffs, too; after that, it's hard to see anyone else doing so. Maaaay-be Stony Brook. Towson? Richmond? Villanova? Unlikely. Delaware, Albany, Elon? No. Maine? Rhode Island? HAH!

Missouri Valley) NINE of the ten teams could make the playoffs, but we have a hard time imagining the committee allowing more than six in; a shame, because three more will deserve it. Here's our best guess before the cannibalism sets in: South Dakota St, North Dakota St (winner this weekend wins the league), Northern Iowa, Western Illinois, Southern Illinois, and Illinois State; screwed this year will be South Dakota, Youngstown St, and Indiana St. Missouri State will be tenth.

Northeast) Bryant seems to be the best of the lot, and the only one making the post-season. They'll be followed by Duquesne, Sacred Heart, St. Francis, Robert Morris, Wagner, and Central Connecticut State.

Ohio Valley) The question isn't whether or not Jacksonville State will win and make the post-season; it's whether anyone else will be good enough to join them this fall. Best bet would be Eastern Kentucky,  and maybe Eastern Illinois. After that, you'll see SE Missouri State, the three Tennessees (UT-Martin, State, and Tech), Murray State, and woeful Austin Peay.

Southern Conference) Chattanooga should be able to win the division, and Furman and Wofford are the next two teams looking for a chance to make it; Western Carolina and Samford will be right behind them. Pulling up the rear will be Mercer, the Citadel, and VMI. (East Tennessee State isn't eligible for either conference title or playoffs; given how they're playing, that's not a concern.)

Southland Conference) It's hard not to stick with Sam Houston State, especially with their perennial success in the playoffs. Lamar and McNeese State and SE Louisiana all have a shot at the playoffs, and if they show well enough the rest of the season as they've done so far, they may make it. After that, Central Arkansas's going to be fifth, with Abilene Christian and Stephen F Austin right behind. Then, Northwestern State will be trailed by the three Sad Sisters of the Southland: Incarnate Word, Nicholls State, and Houston Baptist.

Pioneer) Out of alphabetical order for a reason - any one who doesn't place the Pioneer Football League last doesn't know their FCS football. This season, there's some success from a few teams like Jacksonville, Drake, and our new favorite Dayton - none of whom would have been even .500 in any of the other eight FCS playoff conferences. Following those three, San Diego's probably fourth. After that, we're already into Incarnate Word territory - Morehead State...Marist...Butler and Campbell...Stetson...and the duel between the two worst teams in division one this weekend: Valparaiso and Davidson. Loser gets the title for the rest of the year.

--FF--

The two "Intramural" conferences in New England -->  In the Ivy League, Harvard's miles ahead of the competition, and while Dartmouth and Princeton should be second and third, it's hard to believe Yale won't find a way into contention. The bottom four will be Penn, Brown, Cornell and Columbia. Again. The Patriot League should be won equally easily by Fordham, with Colgate second and Lehigh third; Holy Cross, Bucknell, Lafayette and Georgetown bring up the rear.

The two "Historically Black College" conferences along the southern and eastern regions of the country are less defined at the top, In the MEAC, we're going with Bethune-Cookman over South Carolina State, and then a gap to NC A&T, NC Central and Hampton; Morgan State and Norfolk State in there about sixth, Florida A&M and Howard behind them, and finally Delaware State and lowly Savannah State at the bottom. 

In the SWAC, the East is dominated by Alcorn State, the only team to win outside the conference; probably Alabama A&M, Alabama State, Jackson State, and terrible Mississippi Valley State at the bottom. In the West, it'll be Southern and Grambling St again, with the Jaguars earning the right to lose to Alcorn. Prairie View will probably end up ahead of Texas Southern, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff at the bottom.

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