EDITOR'S NOTE: We've updated the errors pointed out to us, as well as the ones we noticed ourselves, but we've promised not to change any predictions except the one we had the line wrong on originally (BYU/U Conn).
Let’s start with the big one! The Australian Football League Grand Final!
Let’s start with the big one! The Australian Football League Grand Final!
At about 10:45 pm
Friday night, Mountain Time, you can go to afl.com.au and listen to the
Grand Final between the two teams who had the best seasons top to bottom, and
fairly unanimously the two best teams right now – the West Coast Eagles and the
defending champion Hawthorn Hawks. (You can also get the
video if you pay for it.)
The difference?
Hawthorn’s been there. West Coast hasn’t. We expect a classic
game – high flying, high scoring, and one where a couple of key mistakes by the
Eagles and a couple of key cash-ins from the Hawks means that Hawthorn becomes
only the fifth team to win three consecutive titles.
Hawthorn 110, West Coast 88.
OUR PREDICTION
RECORD: 149-56 overall (72%); 122-83 against the spread (59%
"ATS"). We also currently LEAD our segment of the afl.com.au
“tipping” (predicting) finals pool with just the one game to go next week.
Crossing our fingers!
CFL
It’s Week
15, with six to go, five games for most teams. Here’s our forecasts for the
four games up this weekend…and the one on Tuesday!
1-Oct
|
Montreal (5-7)
|
20
|
Ottawa (7-5)
|
23
|
2-Oct
|
Calgary (10-3)
|
33
|
Hamilton (8-4)
|
35
|
3-Oct
|
Edmonton (9-4)
|
27
|
Winnipeg (4-9)
|
10
|
3-Oct
|
Saskatchewan(2-11)
|
14
|
BC Lions (4-8)
|
27
|
PLUS the
game on Tuesday, between Ottawa and
Toronto, where Ottawa’s five-day turnaround and being on the road slays
them in the second half and Toronto pulls away to win, 28-15.
OUR PREDICTION
RECORD: 32-24 overall (57%), 3-1 this week; 30-24-2 ATS (56%)
NFL
Going to
divide these up into two categories: yes, we’re confident in our picks!,
and throw a dart at the board type picks… Some we feel good about, and some we don’t! But we pick every game, every week, by gum, and we won’t
hesitate now!
Confident
in our picks:
Ravens (-2.5) at Steelers: Pittsburgh to win outright! Vick is a
quality backup, and they can run the ball.
Texans (+6.5) at Falcons: Atlanta to cover and win big. They’ve
got it going right now.
Raiders (-3) at Bears: Chicago to cover and win. Every metric
we have says so.
Chiefs (+3.5) at Bengals: Cincinnati wins and covers: see
Atlanta’s comments. They need to make hay!
Panthers (-3) at Bucs: Carolina in a landslide! Cam will get
the calls because Tampa’s QB’s even younger!
Rams (+7) at Cardinals: Cardinals by more than 7. The best team
in football not owned by a town.
Vikings (+7) at Broncos: We think
Denver has it figured out now. Broncos
to cover.
Saints (-5.5) at Cowboys: I don’t
care who QBs Dallas, the Saints are a mess. Dallas wins outright.
Throw a dart, flip a coin:
Jets (-1) “at” Dolphins in London: Jets win. We think.
Giants (+6) at Bills: We’re taking Buffalo and giving the points.
Jaguars (+9.5) at Colts: It just
seems too high for the off-kilter Colts right now. Jax plus the points.
Eagles (-3) at Redskins: When in
doubt, bet against the Redskins.
Browns (+7.5) at Chargers: That
extra half-point tipped us towards the
Browns to cover.
Packers (+9) at 49ers: Plus nine?
That seems like a lot… We’ll take SF…no, we can’t. Packers.
Lions (+10) at Seahawks: Plus TEN?
THAT’S too high. I think. Lions to cover
only.
Guaranteed:
The
Patriots will NOT win this weekend! And the Titans will NOT lose!
OUR
PREDICTION RECORD: 30-17 straight up, 30-17 against the spread this season.
(Both 64%.)
NCAA
FBS:
AWRIGHT! The conference schedule is
well underway starting this week, and there are some really lousy games in
conference…and some really GREAT ones, too! Let’s give you the highlight games
first, and then hit the rest of the conference games:
ACC – The highlight “ACC” game
involves the conference’s new “adjunct” member, Notre Dame, coming to SC to play Clemson. The Irish are favored by half-a-point…take Clemson to win.
Other
interesting games include BC @ Duke (-6.5) [take
Duke to cover], Louisville @ NC State (+4.5) [NC State will win outright], North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (-7) [Tech by double digits], Pitt @ VaTech
(-4.5) [VT covers], and Miami goes
out of conference to play @ Cincinnati (+6) [Miami covers easily].
On the
flip side, there’s also Florida St @ Wake Forest (+19), which isn’t enough…take FSU -19.
B1G – The highlight game? Well, there
really isn’t one…Maybe it’s Minnesota @
Northwestern (-5), which would have been tilted the other way before the
season. Now? Take the Wildcats -5.
Other
games? Indiana @
Ohio State (-21) [hmm…tough call. In the
end, OSU gets a cheap TD to cover], Michigan @ Maryland (+14) [easy: Wolverines are hot. Michigan and
points.], Purdue @ Michigan St (-22) [Sparty
will cover], Army @ Penn St (-26.5) [PSU wins big, but not THAT big!], Nebraska @ Illinois (+6.5) [we’re backing the Illini to cover only], and Iowa @
Wisconsin (-6.5) [don’t trust the
Hawkeyes: UW to win and cover].
Big XII – To us, the best game of the Big
12’s weekend is West Virginia @ Oklahoma
(-6.5). We’re bullish on the Sooners (we’ve got them in Tier A!) but WVU is
good enough to keep it close. We say OU
wins but WV covers.
The rest
of the slate is full of interesting games, too! At the bottom end, Kansas @
Iowa St (-16) for the “wooden spoon”, as the Aussies would say. [too close to call! Can Iowa St push past
sixteen? Can they SCORE sixteen? We were wrong last week siding with Kansas;
let’s side against them and go for ISU to cover.], Baylor and Texas Tech
(+15.5) in Jerryworld [Baylor runs up
the score], Kansas St @ OK St (-8.5) [K-State
wins outright!], and Texas @ TCU (-15) [poor
Longhorns. This is all they need. If TCU wins by a lot more than 15, as we
think they might, Charley Strong may not survive the weekend.].
PAC-12 – Our fave game this weekend is Arizona @ Stanford. We’ll get to see
who and what’s real – is Stanford as good as the beatdown they gave USC? Is
Arizona as weak as they looked last week? The line is Stanford -14, which is too many: Arizona covers but the Cardinal wins.
Other
games are varied, some good, some dull: Washington St @ Cal (-19) [gut feeling: Golden Bears cover],
Oregon @ Colorado (+8) [everyone’s down
on Oregon, but Colorado can’t do to them what Utah did – take OU in a smackdown
of frustration], and Arizona St @ UCLA (-13.5) [we have it higher on every metric – take UCLA!].
SEC – The BIG ONE! Alabama breaks its 72-game streak of being favored, going to Georgia (-2.5). Our metrics are all
over the place on this one, and honestly we’re just looking forward to watching
the game! We’re siding with Georgia,
for an irrational reason: Mark Richt is the best Christian in the coaching
fraternity, and we’d like to see him get “over the hump” this year, so to
speak. Terrible theory, but it’s our blog, and we’ll do as we please!
The other
games should be fun, too: Ole Miss @ Florida (+7.5) [Ole Miss is too good], Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky(-26) [let’s say EKU stays close!] South
Carolina @ Missouri (-3.5) [Mizzou
covers], Arkansas @ Tennessee (-6) [our
tiers have the Vols by 15!], Vanderbilt @ Middle Tennessee (-0.5) [should be a great game! We like Vandy –
they’ve played well in their close games!], San Jose St @ Auburn (-19.5) [can’t believe the line’s only 19.5! Double
it.], Eastern Michigan @ LSU (-44.5) [depends
completely on your belief as to when they call off the Tigers…], and
Mississippi St @ Texas A&M (+7) [can’t
believe A&M’s not favored at home! Take the Aggies to win!].
The American! – You have to put the exclamation point in there! Sounds prouder! No
real close games, but the best one involves new member Navy hosting military rival Air
Force from the MWC, with the Naval Academy four point favorites. The winner
of the round-robin tournament each year (including Army) wins the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy, and these two teams are
the overwhelming favorites, given Army’s hard times. In Annapolis, we believe in the Naval Academy to cover
and take the trophy.
Elsewhere,
UCF @ Tulane (-2) [wrong! UCF should
win by about a TD!], East Carolina @ SMU (+5.5) [SMU’s better than they were last year – they should be closer.
But we’ll hold our breath…], Memphis @ USF (+9.5) [double it. Memphis by 19 or more.], Temple @ Charlotte (+23.5) [we have faith in Temple. Lay the points.],
UConn @ BYU (-19.5) [it's going to be a bit more - 20-30 point win for BYU], Houston @ Tulsa (+6) [double it: Houston by 12 or more].
Conference USA – By far, the most interesting and
pivotal game is Western Kentucky @ Rice
(+8), and as much as we’d love to see WKU run this string out, more than a
TD’s too much. Rice to cover.
UTSA @
UTEP (+3.5) [El Paso wins this
battle of initials], North Texas @ Southern Miss (-16) [too high – UNT covers], UL-Lafayette @ Louisiana Tech (-19) [also too high – ULL covers], Old
Dominion @ Marshall (-19.5) [the Herd
may not be Thundering like in years past, but they’ll thunder past that by
halftime], and FIU @ U Mass (-3.5) [take
Florida International to WIN outright].
#MACattack! – the hashtag is legally required… Several games of note, and we’ll
single one out in each division: Bowling
Green @ Buffalo (+9.5) in the East, and BGSU wins by LESS than 9; and Northern
Illinois @ Central Michigan (+2) in the West, and we like NIU to win by much MORE than that.
The rest
of the slate sees Ohio @ Akron (+2.5) [Ohio
wins and covers], Miami-Ohio @ Kent St (-10.5) [too high – take Miami to cover], Toledo @ Ball St (+6.5) [it’s Toledo’s year – take them every time],
and, to review, U Mass loses to FIU and Eastern Michigan routed by LSU.
Mountain West – The battle for second in the
Mountain division takes place in Logan, where Colorado St plays @ Utah St (-4.5).
With QB gone, we’re leaning towards CSU
to cover at least, although neither will be able to handle Boise in the
weeks to come.
Speaking
of which, Boise’s favored at home against Hawaii by 24.5? Yet every metric says
it’ll be more than that, so take the
Broncos on the Blue. New Mexico St @ New Mexico (-12.5) [NMSU is possibly the worst team in the
FBS...; lay the points], Wyoming @ Appalachian St (+25.5) […unless it’s Wyoming. Lay the points.], UNLV @ Nevada (-6.5) [yes, it’s a rivalry, yes, throw the
records out; bet Nevada-Reno and lay the points], and the other important
game of the weekend in the MW, Fresno St @ San Diego St (-9) [too high: Fresno should keep it closer
than nine points]. A reminder – Air Force loses to Navy, and SJSU loses at
Auburn.
Sun Belt – The most interesting game won’t
have much bearing on the title race, but South
Alabama @ Troy (-6) has predictions all over the board. We’re going with our
tier metric, which gives Troy the
advantage.
Besides
App St beating Wyoming and UL-Lafayette trailing LaTech, look for Idaho @
Arkansas St (-20) [Red Wolves cover],
Georgia Southern @ UL-Monroe (+6) [GASO
covers easily], and Liberty at Georgia St (+7) [which team knows how to win? Liberty covers].
OUR
PREDICTION RECORD: 281-64 (81%) straight up, 188-155-2 against the spread (55%)
this season.
Here are
the key games throughout the Division 1-AA (FCS) realm for this first weekend
of October, and our predicted victors are in underlined boldface:
Missouri Valley – Indiana St @ Missouri St by 5, North Dakota
St @ South Dakota St by 3,
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State
by 5, Southern Illinois @ Western
Illinois by 1, and Youngstown
St @ South Dakota by 4.
Big Sky – Idaho State @ CalPoly SLO by 11, Montana
@ UC Davis by 13, Montana St
@ Northern Arizona by 9, North Dakota @ Portland
St by 11, Northern Colorado @ Sacramento
St by 11, Southern Utah @ Weber
St by 1.
Colonial – Elon @ New Hampshire by 17, Stony Brook @ James Madison by 13, Maine @ Richmond by 14, William
& Mary @ Delaware by 11, Albany
@ Holy Cross by 4
Southland – Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian by 8, Northwestern St @ Incarnate Word
by 7, Sam Houston St v
Stephen F Austin by 17, Lamar @ SE
Louisiana by 1.
Big South – Alabama A&M @ Coastal Carolina by 34, Bryant @ Monmouth by 6, and
Presbyterian @ Western Carolina
by 3.
Southern Conference – Wofford @ Mercer by 7, Bucknell @ VMI by 1, McNeese St @ Nicholls St by 31, and South
Carolina St @ Furman in
overtime.
Northeast Conference – Central Connecticut St @ Duquesne by 18, St. Francis @ East Tennessee St
by 3, and Wagner @ Robert
Morris by 6.
Ohio Valley – Eastern Illinois @ Austin Peay by 21, Mississippi
Valley St @ Jacksonville St
by 41, Murray St @ SE Missouri St by 14, UT-Martin
@ Tennessee Tech by 4.
Pioneer – Drake @ Campbell by 6, Dayton
@ Stetson by 19, Jacksonville
@ Morehead St by 18, Marist @ San
Diego by 13, and in the game matching the two lowest ranked teams in
all 253 Division I possibilities, somehow both Valparaiso @ Davidson will lose! (All right…Davidson loses 2-0.)
Ivy League – Rhode Island @ Brown by 16, Columbia @ Princeton
by 24, Dartmouth @ Penn by
17, Georgetown @ Harvard by
27, Yale @ Lehigh by 7.
Patriot League – Fordham @ Lafayette by 13, Colgate @ Cornell by 11, and we’ve
covered all the others (Bucknell over VMI, Georgetown loses to Harvard, and Lehigh
to Yale).
MEAC – Bethune-Cookman @ NC Central by 5, Florida A&M @ Savannah St by
3, despite being 0-4 themselves, Morgan
St @ Delaware St by 7, NC
A&T @ Hampton by 7, Norfolk
St @ Howard by 5, and we mentioned SC State and Furman too close to
call in regulation.
SWAC – Alabama St @ Texas Southern by 3, Alcorn St @ Ark-Pine Bluff by
18, and Grambling St @
Jackson St by 9.
There you have it – EVERY division
1 game predicted this time…not just “the ones we want”. Let’s see how we do!
