Week 14 predictions on three fronts, from three directions!

Okay, we've got things organized enough now (finally, at the end of the American college season!) to put the Week 14 predictions together as follows: Here are the Vegas line, the Sagarin rating prediction, and the tier-produced FOLLOWING FOOTBALL projections, all in one place!

What's more, with a small docket of games at the college level on conference championship Saturday, we can list these all for not only the FBS games but also the FCS games (there's no Vegas line for those) and the NFL weekend as well!

Here are the FBS games, with the reminder that "visiting" may not mean anything at a neutral site like many of the conference title games are this week....

"visiting" team	"home" team	vegas line	FF line	sagarin difference
UCF	East Carolina	ECU -6	ECU -10.5	UCF -1.97
Northern Illinois	Bowling Green	NIU -7	NIU -4.5	NIU -5.72
Arizona	Oregon	Ore -13.5	Ore -4	Ore -10.36
Louisiana Tech	Marshall	Mar -12.5	Marsh -6	Marsh - 7.23
Houston	Cincinnati	Cin -6.5	Cin - 12	Cincy -10.20
SMU	U Conn	Con -11.5	Con -5	Conn -13.62
Iowa St	TCU	TCU -33.5	TCU -33	TCU - 33.52
Oklahoma St	Oklahoma	OU -20	OU - 16	OU - 23.51
Alabama	Missouri	Ala -14.5	Ala - 4	Ala -12.35
Temple	Tulane	Tem -3.5	Tem - 5	Temple -6.76
Kansas St	Baylor		Bay -4.5	Bay -4.85
Florida St	Georgia Tech	FSU -4	FSU -1.5	FSU -0.50
Wisconsin	Ohio St	Wisc - 4	OSU -3	OSU -1.35
Fresno St	Boise St	BSU -20	BSU -19	BSU -17.41

Interesting to note the admittedly few differences, particularly Central Florida's being favored by the computer and Wisconsin by the casinos. (There's currently no Vegas line for the Baylor/K-State game.)

Here are the FCS second round playoffs, hosted at the home field of the top eight ranked teams in the nation...

visiting team	home team		FF line	sagarin difference
Fordham	New Hampshire		NH -10	NH - 7.05
Indiana St	Chattanooga		Ch -3	Chat -3.24
Richmond	Coastal Carolina		CC -14	CC -10.96
Sam Houston	Jacksonville St		JSU -3	JSU -11.68
Northern Iowa	Illinois St		NIU -3	Ill St -0.98
South Dakota St	North Dakota St		ND -16	NDSU -12.89
Montana	Eastern Washington		EW -13	EWU -8.47
Liberty	Villanova		Vill -5	Vill -2.71

Of course, the hosts are favored in almost all cases, although we see Illinois State being in even more trouble than the computer does, and the same can be said for J-State's battle with pesky Sam Houston St, a perennial playoff powerhouse. But the top teams should make it through without difficulty.

Now, the NFL scene...

visiting team	home team	vegas line	FF line	sagarin difference
Dallas Cowboys	Chicago Bears	Dal -3.5	Dal - 5	Dallas -1.79
Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals	Cin -3.5	Cin -4.5	Cincy -5.09
St. Louis Rams	Washington Redskins	StL -3	Wsh -1	St. Louis -0.17
New York Giants	Tennessee Titans	NYG -1.5	Ten -1.5	NYG -0.42
Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	NO -10	NO -5.5	NO -7.86
New York Jets	Minnesota Vikings	Min -6	Min -5	Min - 6.17
Baltimore Ravens	Miami Dolphins	Mia -3	Mia -4	Miami -4.82
Indianapolis Colts	Cleveland Browns	Ind -4.5	Indy - 3	Indy -2.96
Tampa Bay Bucs	Detroit Lions	Det -10	Det -13	Detroit -13.39
Houston Texans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Hou -5.5	Hou -4	Houston -7.46
Buffalo Bills	Denver Broncos	Den -10	Den -11	Denv -10.32
Kansas City Chiefs	Arizona Cardinals	Ariz -1.5	Ariz -7	Ariz - 2.5
Seattle Seahawks	Philadelphia Eagles	Phi -1	Phil -4	Phil -2.59
San Francisco 49ers	Oakland Raiders	SF -9	SF -4	San Fr -6.41
New England Pats	San Diego Chargers	NE -4	NE -2	NE -4.31
Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	GB -12.5	GB -13	GB -13.59

Again, there's great similarity between the three projections, and ironically the two games that we forecast home "underdogs" to win, we'd personally prefer to see the visiting team win! 

The Arizona game is interesting with a sub quarterback in and the other injuries they're dealing with, which we don't take into account (also why the casinos are higher on Wisconsin, given Ohio St's QB situation. But we resisted the temptation to skew the tiers to match that reality...let the situation play out! How many folks thought JT Barrett would be a bust, too?)