It's the last game of the season for twenty NFL teams this Sunday, and determination of the next few games for the other twelve! Here's a look at all sixteen games, comparing the predictions of Following Football, the Vegas casino line, the Sagarin Ratings, Nate Silver, and the ELO rating system from Five-Thirty-Eight...
The actual result of the game is in bold at left...our prediction was in BLUE. We went 6-7-3 over this last week against the spread, although we did correctly choose 12 of 16 winners.
Game Following FB Casino Line Sagarin Nate Silver ELO
CLE @ BAL by 10 BAL by 7. BAL by 9. BAL by 9.9. BAL by 9.2 B by 10.0
With the Browns sinking slowly into the morass of their QB situation, the Ravens should win this and give themselves a fighting shot at that last wild card spot.
DAL by 27 @ WAS DAL by 7. DAL by 7. DAL by 9.9. DAL by 6.7 D by 10.0
The Cowboys can make their bid for a bye with a win, which is more than their opponents can muster in playing out the string.
IND by 17 @ TEN IND by 7. IND by 6.5 IND by 14.7. IND by 12.8 I by 9.5
As bad as the Colts looked last week, the Titans have looked that bad EVERY week.
JAX @ HOU by 6 HOU by 11 HOU by 9.5 HOU by 15.2. HOU by 10.3 H by 11.0
See previous entry. This will probably be ugly because the Texans not only have a very slight chance to make the second wild card slot, they also have their longshot JJ Watt for MVP campaign to finish with a bang.
SD @ KC by 12 KC by 1 KC by 2.5. KC by 4.6. KC by 3.3 K by 2.0
This should be a really good intradivisional game, with the Chargers having the larger chance at grabbing a wild card spot. Personally, I think the favorite really should be SD, but the numbers say otherwise.
NYJ by 13 @ MIA MIA by 11. MIA by 5.5. MIA by 12.1. MIA by 6.7 M by 9.0
Both teams are headed home for the offseason. Possibly, though, both coaches are fighting for their jobs for next year, which changes their motivations!
CHI @ MIN by 4 MIN by 5. MIN by 6.5. MIN by 6.2. MIN by 6.7 M by 5.5
Looks like Trestman has given up on the season by pulling Cutler, so whatever the long term consequences are for the Bears, this game should end up on Teddy's highlight reel.
BUF by 8 @ NE NE by 9.5 NE by 10 NE by 11.1. NE by 9.9 N by 11.5
Orton is looking very competent right now, but Brady is Brady, and the Pats have something to play for, so we see NE with ease.
PHI by 8 @ NYG PHI by 2 NYG by 3 PHI by 2.5 NYG by 1.0 N by 0.5
Here's the first of just two games where Following Football disagrees with Vegas. Both cases involve back up QBs that FF has more faith in than the casinos (and bettors) do!
NO by 3 @ TB NO by 1 NO by 4 NO by 4.3 NO by 3.7 N by 3.0
Somehow, the Saints have been eliminated from a race they're tied in...because if the Falcons win, they have the head-to-head tiebreaker, and if the Panthers win, they have that pesky tie giving them the half game edge. So the game that MATTERS is...
CAR by 31 @ ATL ATL by 4 ATL by 4 ATL by 3.9. ATL by 3.8 A by 2.0
Pretty consistent across the board. The mystery: will the Atlanta coach screw it up?
DET @ GB by 10 GB by 5 GB by 7.5 GB by 6.2 GB by 7.5 G by 4.5
Packers at home seem the logical preference. But what if the Lions really CAN get it done in Green Bay? Actually, we think they might!
OAK @ DEN by 33 DEN by 13 DEN by 14.5. DEN by 19.2 DEN by 14.0 D by 16
Hard to believe this a month ago, but the Raiders have a chance here! They're playing better than they have all season, and Denver is not on all cylinders at the moment.
ARZ @ SF by 3 ARZ by 2 SF by 6 ARZ by 2.9 SF by 4.4 EVEN!
This is the other game we disagree on: FF believes the Cardinal D will take care of the ineffective 49ers offense, while Vegas thinks the QB situation is a bigger deal than that. Regardless, the division winner will come from...
STL @ SEA by 14 SEA by 11 SEA by 11 SEA by 12.8 SEA by 11.5 Se by 14.5
As good as the Rams have been playing, NO ONE is betting against the Seahawks right now. They win, the NFC goes through Seattle, and they go to the Super Bowl.
CIN @ PIT by 10 PIT by 4 PIT by 3.5 PIT by 1.6. PIT by 3.5 P by 3.0
This will be a much more interesting game after the Bengals win against Denver. If they look that good in Steeltown, they'll win the division. (It's winner take the 2 or 3 seed; loser gets #6!) Only the home field advantage dictates the difference!
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