Australian Footy season isn't that far away!

As December comes, we've gone through the trading period and both drafts for new players into the AFL down under, and now teams are relatively solidified for the upcoming 2015 footy season, which starts with practice matches in February. 

Go to the Australian Football page for more information on the eighteen teams in the AFL.

Here at Following Football, we've developed a rating system like the Elo or Sagarin scoring systems for gauging the relative strength of each team and predicting the most likely outcome for games between them. (Translation: we're easily bored and we LOVE our footy!) Just like the Sagarin ratings, you should be able to use the difference in the ratings of two teams to determine the likely point spread in a game, plus-or-minus the home field advantage (still a guess; we're starting at six points, or one goal). Note: because several teams are based in Melbourne and use the MCG or Etihad Stadium for home games, there will be games where any "home field advantage" will be muted at best.

So, without further ado, here's our FFRS...our "Following Football Rating System":

Each team's rating is measured from an average level of fifty. That is, teams with ratings above fifty are above-average AFL teams, and below fifty indicates a team below average. The mean of the eighteen ratings should always be fifty.

For neutral site games, simply subtract the lower team's rating from the higher to find the most likely point differential outcome of the game. For true home games, the home team adds six points to its rating first. For "shared home games" add three points instead.

After the game, compare the predicted score with the actual outcome. Add one tenth of the difference between the two to the rating of team that EXCEEDED expectations (whether they actually WON the game or not), and subtract the same difference from the opponent. (Thus the net change in the total number of rating points remains 900.)

That's it. Here's our starting point for the eighteen clubs, based on games from 2013 and 2014. (For example, if Sydney and Essendon played at a neutral site, the ratings suggest that Sydney should be a 77.7 - 53.7 = 24 point favorite. If the game is in Sydney, add six towards the Swans, so they're now a 30 point favorite. If it's Essendon who's at home, subtract six, and Sydney is only favored by 18.)

Hawthorn Hawks - 81.6
Sydney Swans - 77.7

Port Adelaide Power - 71.7
Fremantle Dockers - 70.3

Adelaide Crows - 63.4
North Melbourne Kangaroos - 62.8
West Coast Eagles - 62.3
Geelong Cats - 61.8

Richmond Tigers - 55.1
Essendon Bombers - 53.7

Gold Coast Suns - 43.9
Carlton Blues - 40.7
Collingwood Magpies - 40.2

Western Bulldogs - 31.4
Brisbane Lions - 26.4
Greater Western Sydney Giants - 26.3

Melbourne Demons - 20.2
St. Kilda Saints - 10.5