The NFC's mathematics problem...

Take a look at the NFC rankings in particular this week, and their records...

week 14	Team	Div	OvRecord
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	10-3
A3	Denver Broncos	A-W	10-3
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	9-4
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4
C10	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	8-5
C11	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	8-5
C12	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	8-4-1
D13	San Diego Chargers	A-W	8-5
D14	Miami Dolphins	A-E	7-6
D15	Houston Texans	A-S	7-6
D16	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	7-6
E17	Buffalo Bills	A-E	7-6
E18	Cleveland Browns	A-N	7-6
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10
G28	New York Jets	A-E	2-11
H29	Oakland Raiders	A-W	2-11
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11
H31	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	2-11
H32	Tennessee Titans	A-S	2-11

As we see it, there are SIX teams in the NFC who are head and shoulders above the rest - six teams in slots #1-9 in the FF rankings (and basically everyone else's, too), six teams with at least nine wins already, and the next team in the conference doesn't show up until Tier E, #19! With six playoff spots and six good teams, this should be easy...

EXCEPT for the GOSH-DARNED SOUTH Division!

Take another look at where the teams in each division are (we'll just show you the NFC this time...), highlighting the six leaders and the NFC South:

week 14	Team	Div	OvRecord
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3
A4	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	9-4
B6	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-4
B7	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	9-4
B8	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	10-3
C09	Detroit Lions	N-N	9-4
E19	St. Louis Rams	N-W	6-7
E20	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-6
F21	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	6-7
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7
F23	Carolina Panthers	N-S	4-8-1
F24	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-8
G25	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-8
G26	New York Giants	N-E	4-9
G27	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-10
H30	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-11

So, there are TWO teams from each of THREE divisions (meaning there will be THREE non-division winners among the six), while the best of the NFC South teams comes in at #22, with #23, #24, and #30 close behind. In fact, if Atlanta loses to the Packers tonight (as expected - they're two TD underdogs), it will be mathematically impossible for ANY team in the division to have a winning record this year.

Therefore, we're already guaranteed that a nine-win team will stay home in the NFC (more likely a 10 or 11 win team), while the NFC South winner not only goes to the playoffs, but HOSTS a game! 

We are NOT the Big 12 - we will NOT change the rules in midstream. However, we would like to recommend a rule change starting next year...

"No team may participate in the playoffs if their record is under .500."

You can't say at .500, as much as you'd like to, because it's possible you won't have six teams out of sixteen over .500. (In fact, it's theoretically possible for the entire league to be 8-8, so under that version of the rule NO ONE goes to the playoffs. But that's not very likely.)

But under .500? Easy. "If a division champion is under .500, then its spot goes to the first wild card team; the second team moves up to the #5 slot, and a third wild card team is entered into the #6 slot."

"Furthermore, if the entire conference is putrid and there are not six teams in a particular conference with .500 records or above, then all empty slots in that conference will be filled with the next available teams from the opposite conference." (That's the way the CFL does it already! That's how British Columbia got into the playoffs instead of 8-10 Toronto!) "Hence, the #7 team in the opposing conference takes the #6 slot in the putrid conference, assuming one open slot."

And, just in case..."If somehow, there are NOT six teams with records of .500 or above available at all," (and it IS theoretically possible: what if there are five teams who go 14-2? There'll be a lot of losses to spread around in the league!), "then ALL empty slots are treated as BYES, and the opposing team gets a walkover into the next round." Wouldn't THAT be a fascinating turn of events! How serious are you about not allowing 7-9 teams into your postseason? 

("Alternatively, if you want to wuss out and take the money and run instead, then on a 3/4 vote of the league owners, the previous paragraph may be waived on a one-year basis IF there are not twelve eligible teams to fill the twelve available spots. Wusses.")