As we follow the "Belk Bowl" (whatever the blazes a "belk" is), between Georgia and Louisville, we here at Following Football can't help but mention the HUGE difference in the head coaches involved. Georgia's Mark Richt is perhaps the most famous Christian coach in the nation, even appearing as the inspiration in the famous Christian film Facing The Giants. Meanwhile, Bobby Petrino was famously relieved of his duties at Arkansas after crashing his motorcycle with his illegally hired mistress on the back; this after arriving in Arkansas when he literally deserted the Atlanta Falcons midseason when the opportunity to jump ship arose.
Forgive us, UL friends, if we root for the Bulldogs tonight....
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Monday, December 29, 2014
Hard to read the Longhorns tweeters tonight...
As the Arkansas annihilation of the Texas Lnghrns (no O, get it?) stretches into the fourth quarter with an 8:39 drive for a TD making it 31-7, the numbers and complaints are staggering...
In the second half, Texas has had three drives, all negative, totalling seventeen negative yards. In fact, the Longhorns have a TOTAL of 25 yards of offense. That's not only fewer than Arkansas has points, but fewer than they have penalty yards (29). Now, factor in the fact that the UT touchdown drive went 44 yards. That means that for the ENTIRE GAME except for that one short scoring drive, the Longhorns offense has NEGATIVE NINETEEN YARDS, with under six minutes to go.
In the second half, Texas has had three drives, all negative, totalling seventeen negative yards. In fact, the Longhorns have a TOTAL of 25 yards of offense. That's not only fewer than Arkansas has points, but fewer than they have penalty yards (29). Now, factor in the fact that the UT touchdown drive went 44 yards. That means that for the ENTIRE GAME except for that one short scoring drive, the Longhorns offense has NEGATIVE NINETEEN YARDS, with under six minutes to go.
Where's that burning fire? Where's that fighting spirit? Where in the hell is that relentless will to win? Just asking!
My mom, who is definitely not an avid sports fan, just texted me to ask when they were putting in the first string players... #TexasBowl
5 years ago the UT press corps was in California. I recall a conversation about how impossible it was to imagine them not winning 10 games.
MT @mikefinger: Texas in danger of its fifth 20-point loss in one season. It's been playing football since 1893, and that's never happened before.
Swoopes misses a big play when he leads Johnson out of bounds on a bomb. But Daje stepped out of bounds before the catch anyway. Ugh. #horns
Sunday, December 28, 2014
The first ever FOLLOWING FOOTBALL NFL All-League TEAM!
We're going to take a shot at this All-League team business (since everyone else does!). Unlike MOST such endeavors, we're trying something that sounds simply ridiculous on the surface...we refused to name our team until the regular season ENDS! None of this "2 games to go" stuff for us! It's All-League for the 2014 SEASON...and the season didn't end until Sunday! (We have similar semantic complaints for not calling it the "first annual"...it's not annual until we do it again next year!) Please understand, this goes against our anti-fantasy football mindset...but there are indeed certain players that stand out above their peers.
Okay, so, here goes!
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82.
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.
Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.
Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker.
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!
Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR - AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.
TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).
Okay, so, here goes!
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay.
As much as we love Peyton around here, Rodgers has yet to throw an interception in Wisconsin this year! Only one of his interceptions (out of a whopping five) was arguably his fault: four of the five hit his receiver's hands first. He has done more with less for years, this year no exception.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray, Dallas / Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
It's the year of the DeMarco - we would've liked to see him hit 2000, but in a pass-happy league, 1900? is a pretty amazing feat! As for Marshawn, anyone who won't put up with the insufferability of the press is cool with us! After the back breaking run against Arizona in week 16, it was hard to give it to anyone else.
Wideouts: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh / Dez Bryant, Dallas
Brown led all receivers by something like twenty catches in 2014, but even so he never looked as dominant as Bryant looked on occasion, especially against the poor overmatched Colts secondary a couple weeks back. (Although his last game against the Bengals looked DANGED impressive...)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, New England
Hard not to give it to one of the old guard; Antonio Gates, for example, or Vernon Davis.. But Gronk has been too critical to the Patriots' success this year. He leads all tight ends in yardage by a wide margin, and is tied for total catches with 82.
Offensive Line: Dallas Cowboys
This should absolutely be a team unit award. Following Football recognizes the unit which works together the most effectively, and no unit was as good as the Cowboys, especially during the first half of the year.
Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh, Detroit / Terrence Knighton, Denver
We know it would be easier to pick more DEs and call them all front liners, but the DT is just as crucial to the success of the defense, if not as spectacular. Suh really is that spectacular, though, when he's behaving himself (unlike Sunday) and not costing his team penalty yards or himself fine money. Knighton has clogged up the middle for the deceptively good Bronco D all year.
Defensive End: JJ Watt, Houston / Calais Campbell, Arizona
Watt has been insanely spectacular this year. He led the league in just about every category - sack yardage, QB hits, blah, blah, blah... - besides catching passes, running back both a fumble and an interception, selling popcorn at halftime, and God only knows what else. Bill Simmons once said that the only thing that could've made his season any better is throwing a touchdown pass...and that's coming. The Arizona Cardinals have had one of the great defenses all season, and Campbell is one of the primary reasons why. Our other choices here, Mario Williams in Buffalo and Cameron Wake in Miami, would have been just as qualified: Campbell's recognition is as much for Arizona's defense as a team as for his own talents on the field.
Linebackers: Luke Kuechly, Carolina / Justin Houston, Kansas City / DeAndre Levy, Detroit
Kuechly never heard the rule about not supposing to be as big a numbers guy in the pros as in the ACC. Houston merely set the Chiefs record for sacks, leading the league with 22 (beating even Watt this year, and the second highest all time!). Levy played solidly all season, and particularly towards the end of the year.
Safeties: Earl Thomas, Seattle / Patrick Peterson, Arizona
All right, technically Peterson is probably a cornerback, but what we love about his game is his ability to hit as well as cover, not to mention his kick return talents, and so we're getting him on our field one way or another. Thomas, however, is a pure safety who's as good as they get, year after year.
Cornerbacks: Richard Sherman, Seattle / Darrell Revis, New England
Rarely have two such defenders existed the same season, where no sane QB throws to their side regardless of which favorite receiver of his is running patterns with that DB. But neither Sherman nor Revis were successfully challenged all season, really.
Placekicker: Matt Bryant, Atlanta
Perfect on extra points, 28 of 31 on field goals with all three misses past 50 yards long (and he made seven of those, the most in the league), and a complete kicker.
Punter: Sam Koch, Baltimore
Second in gross average, his inside 20s/touchback ratio of 9 to 1 is outstanding, and very few returners actually ran back punts (and rarely for distance, averaging less than seven YPR).
Return specialist: Darren Sproles, Philadelphia.
It's tempting to give Devon Hester a career-achievement award here, but he didn't have the year Sproles did in his new home in Philly, where he almost single-handedly kept them afloat when the offense struggled this year.
Head coach: Pete Carroll, Seattle
What the former USC escapee has done in Seattle is downright amazing: defense AND offense are clicking, and the sheer ability to avoid the usual post-Super Bowl deflation (the major cause of the slow start this year was injuries, not SBD) needs to be recognized!
Notable exclusions: QB - Tom Brady, New England; Russell Wilson, Seattle; Tony Romo, Dallas; Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. RB - LeVeon Bell, Pittsburgh; Arian Foster, Houston; LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia; CJ Anderson, Denver; Jamaal Charles, Kansas City. WR - AJ Green, Cincinnati; Odelle Beckham, Jr., NY Giants; Julio Jones, Atlanta. TE - Julius Thomas, Denver; Jimmy Graham, New Orleans. OL - Seattle; DE - Mario Williams, Buffalo; Cameron Wake, Miami, DeMarcus Ware, Denver. LB - LaVonte David, Tampa Bay. S - Charles Woodson, Oakland; Glover Quin, Detroit. CB - Aqib Talib, Denver; Vontae Davis, Indianapolis. PK - Adam Viniteri, Indianapolis; HC - Bill Belechick, New England, Bruce Arians, Arizona; Jim Caldwell, Detroit.
TOTAL Recognitions by team: SEATTLE, 4 (6 counting exclusions), DALLAS, 3 (4 counting exclusions), NEW ENGLAND 2 (4), DETROIT 2 (4), ARIZONA 2 (3), DENVER 1 (5), PITTSBURGH 1 (3), PHILADELPHIA 1 (2), ATLANTA 1 (2), HOUSTON 1 (2), KANSAS CITY 1 (2), BALTIMORE 1 (1), GREEN BAY 1 (1), CAROLINA 1 (1), INDIANAPOLIS 0 (2), CINCINNATI 0 (1), BUFFALO 0 (1), TAMPA BAY 0 (1), NY GIANTS 0 (1), NEW ORLEANS 0 (1), MIAMI 0 (1), OAKLAND 0 (1). None from NY Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, San Francisco, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, or San Diego (although it killed us to leave Rivers off).
Looking through the NFL final standings,...
...there are, as always, some curious records within the records. Here are a few of them...
8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).
8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.
0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...
0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).
The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.
6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)
Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).
Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.
Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).
Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!
8-0 at home) Both Green Bay and Denver were not only perfect at home, but 11-0 overall on grass this season (and thus 1-4 on turf!).
8-0 on the road) Strangely, Dallas went just 4-4 in their luxurious digs, but undefeated on the road.
0-8 on the road) Two young teams, Oakland and Jacksonville, managed three wins at home but went winless on the road. Not that weird...
0-8 at home) But the only two wins Tampa Bay got this year were away from home, at Washington (okay) and at Pittsburgh (arguably the biggest upset of the year). Tampa was also the only team to go 0-6 in their division (and in the worst division in football, no less).
The definition of average) Not only did the Miami Dolphins go 8-8, but they were 4-4 at home, 4-4 on the road, 3-3 in the division and 6-6 in the conference (and thus 2-2 against the NFC). Their point differential was just fifteen points to the good, too; San Diego, on the other hand, wound up scoring 348 points and allowing 348 points as well, though they went 9-7.
6-0 in the division) Indianapolis and Denver both went lossless within their division, and won the division with ease. (Had Atlanta held home field today, they would've won the division by going 6-0 in the division and 1-9 everywhere else!)
Overtime champs) Oddly, Minnesota was the only club to win two overtime games this season, going 2-0 (defeating the Jets and Buccaneers).
Carolina "wins" the NFC South) despite scoring 35 fewer points than their opponents, and despite losing every game between Columbus Day (Oct 12) and Pearl Harbor Day (Dec 7). In fact, no team in the division had a winning record at home OR on the road this year.
Looking at the way divisions played each other, the NFC East went 12-4 over the AFC South (and Dallas and Philly both went 4-0); the AFC North managed to go 12-3-1 over the NFC South (with Cincinnati and Baltimore combining to go 7-0-1); and the NFC West went 12-4 against the NFC East (the Rams only went 1-3, though, beating Washington, while the other three teams went 11-1 against their eastern brethren).
Finally, Buffalo may regret its 1-3 record against the AFC West, while the New England Pats went 4-0 against the same teams. The two clubs went 8-4 in all their other games, so those interdivision matchups cost the Bills the division!
NFL in game notes on the last Sunday of 2014!
UPDATE (7 pm): From ESPN Stats & Info - Consider the circumstances for the Houston Texans to make the playoffs ... they needed to: - Win with Case Keenum making 2nd start of season - Have Ravens lose to QB making 1st NFL start (Connor Shaw - Browns) - Have Chargers lose to QB making his 2nd NFL start (Chase Daniel - Chiefs). And they succeeded in two of those, and were less than a quarter from the Browns winning as well!
The Carolina Panthers did something that's never been done before: repeat as NFC South champs! In fact, for seven consecutive years, the winner of the division had been the team who was LAST the previous season!
Finally, on the fourteen games all the prognosticators agreed on, we picked eleven correctly (we missed the victories by the Jets, Bills, and Panthers). On the two we disagreed on, Vegas got the 49ers victory right (although we hit the right side of the spread) and we got the Eagles win correct.
UPDATE (6:30 mst): So, after a slow start, Seattle looked like the team to beat, scoring 20 unanswered in the second half after Russell Wilson's first scoreless first half as a Seahawk to beat the Rams. Green Bay got the job done against Detroit, although presumptive MVP Aaron Rodgers came up lame throwing a TD pass; he finished the game and will get a welcome week off before hosting a divisional round game (as will New England, Denver, and the Seahawks).
Carolina is most certainly the most threatening 7-8-1 playoff team in NFL history (look it up!) after another strong win, annihilating the favored Falcons 34-3 on enemy turf. Cam Newton and that defense looked superb, and hosting Arizona and its third string QB (losers to San Francisco in Jim Harbaugh's last game as their coach), could very likely be favorites next week!
Speaking of "last game as their coach", Black Monday looks to be as drastic a day in coach firings as we've seen in a long time. Here's our best guess list of teams who may be in the market for a coach, even though it may simply be one of the ones another team just fired: San Francisco (confirmed), Atlanta (we think reasonable and likely), Washington (more likely than we think it should be), Chicago (necessary, IOO), Tampa, St. Louis, and NYGiants (all would be mistakes, we think) in the NFC; Tennessee (probable), NYJets (sounds like a done deal already, thankfully), Miami (ludicrous if it happens), Jacksonville (always a possibility!), and Oakland, who was already on an interim coach. Tony Sporano took over a team that was on a ten game losing streak, and after six games to reform it, went 3-3 over his last six games. We weren't big fans of his first stint, but think he deserves a shot to continue what he's begun there.
2:30 pm) So, when push came to shove, San Diego couldn't get it done after all. After losing 19-7 to Kansas City, who also had a shot at the post season IF, the figurative ball passed to the Baltimore Ravens, who struggled with the third string QB led Cleveland Browns, 20-10, and gave the AFC North THREE teams in the playoffs (along with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh).
How teams treat the last Sunday of the season varies, understandably, with their motivation regarding the playoffs. Of course, teams trying to get into the playoffs or move up a seed have obvious and tangible motivation, and play hard. But teams who were already in and essentially no way to move up or down? For Dallas and Indianapolis, it was business as usual so they would go into the playoffs with momentum - both won easily - while New England took the week off without actually taking the week off, resting five starters for the whole game, and Brady and others the second half despite trailing, and fell to the Buffalo Bills 17-9.
Meanwhile, the situation at the bottom of the world was similar: if you have the worst record, do you try to lose? Tampa Bay didn't, to their credit, and except for a strong fourth quarter by the Saints would've won. None of the bottom teams let up today - Jacksonville and both New York teams played well, while Washington, Tennessee, and Oakland simply played superior opponents today.
The Carolina Panthers did something that's never been done before: repeat as NFC South champs! In fact, for seven consecutive years, the winner of the division had been the team who was LAST the previous season!
Finally, on the fourteen games all the prognosticators agreed on, we picked eleven correctly (we missed the victories by the Jets, Bills, and Panthers). On the two we disagreed on, Vegas got the 49ers victory right (although we hit the right side of the spread) and we got the Eagles win correct.
UPDATE (6:30 mst): So, after a slow start, Seattle looked like the team to beat, scoring 20 unanswered in the second half after Russell Wilson's first scoreless first half as a Seahawk to beat the Rams. Green Bay got the job done against Detroit, although presumptive MVP Aaron Rodgers came up lame throwing a TD pass; he finished the game and will get a welcome week off before hosting a divisional round game (as will New England, Denver, and the Seahawks).
Carolina is most certainly the most threatening 7-8-1 playoff team in NFL history (look it up!) after another strong win, annihilating the favored Falcons 34-3 on enemy turf. Cam Newton and that defense looked superb, and hosting Arizona and its third string QB (losers to San Francisco in Jim Harbaugh's last game as their coach), could very likely be favorites next week!
Speaking of "last game as their coach", Black Monday looks to be as drastic a day in coach firings as we've seen in a long time. Here's our best guess list of teams who may be in the market for a coach, even though it may simply be one of the ones another team just fired: San Francisco (confirmed), Atlanta (we think reasonable and likely), Washington (more likely than we think it should be), Chicago (necessary, IOO), Tampa, St. Louis, and NYGiants (all would be mistakes, we think) in the NFC; Tennessee (probable), NYJets (sounds like a done deal already, thankfully), Miami (ludicrous if it happens), Jacksonville (always a possibility!), and Oakland, who was already on an interim coach. Tony Sporano took over a team that was on a ten game losing streak, and after six games to reform it, went 3-3 over his last six games. We weren't big fans of his first stint, but think he deserves a shot to continue what he's begun there.
2:30 pm) So, when push came to shove, San Diego couldn't get it done after all. After losing 19-7 to Kansas City, who also had a shot at the post season IF, the figurative ball passed to the Baltimore Ravens, who struggled with the third string QB led Cleveland Browns, 20-10, and gave the AFC North THREE teams in the playoffs (along with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh).
How teams treat the last Sunday of the season varies, understandably, with their motivation regarding the playoffs. Of course, teams trying to get into the playoffs or move up a seed have obvious and tangible motivation, and play hard. But teams who were already in and essentially no way to move up or down? For Dallas and Indianapolis, it was business as usual so they would go into the playoffs with momentum - both won easily - while New England took the week off without actually taking the week off, resting five starters for the whole game, and Brady and others the second half despite trailing, and fell to the Buffalo Bills 17-9.
Meanwhile, the situation at the bottom of the world was similar: if you have the worst record, do you try to lose? Tampa Bay didn't, to their credit, and except for a strong fourth quarter by the Saints would've won. None of the bottom teams let up today - Jacksonville and both New York teams played well, while Washington, Tennessee, and Oakland simply played superior opponents today.
Saturday, December 27, 2014
Here's a visual guide to the high flying sport of Aussie Rules Football!
Here's a year in review via photographs of the 2014 AFL season, giving you a good idea of the action in store this coming season (just three months away now!).
How endangered is our sport of choice?
This survey indicates what many others have as well - concussions are a significant to the potential livelihood of every young man wanting to grow up to play gridiron football when they grow up. Forty percent of parents would move to prevent their sons from playing football because of the health threat it poses, primarily through brain injuries caused by concussions and other head trauma.
Friday, December 26, 2014
It's college bowl season!
Sorry for the delay in this post: real life intervened. But, here are the 38 scheduled bowl games and their predicted outcomes, not just from Following Football but from Sagarin, ESPN, and Vegas:
Dec 20: ESPN SAGARIN VEGAS Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette: Nev by 4 Nev by 1.4 Nev by 1. ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP: USU by 13 USU by 8.8. USU by 10. USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St: CSU by 3. Utah by 5.6 Utah by 3 CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force: WM by 7. WM by 0.5. AF by 1.5. AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama: BG by 1 SA by 2.4. SA by 3. SA by 1/2
Dec 22
BYU v Memphis: Mem by 7. Mem by 2.0 Mem by 1.5. Mem by 3
Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois: Mrsh by 7. Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10 Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St: SDSU by 1. SDSU by 3.1. SDSU by 3. Navy by 1
Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky: WK by 13. WK by 5.0. WK by 4. WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice: Rice by 8. Rice by 2.6. Rice by 2.5 Rice by 1/2
Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech: LT by 11. LT by 9.1. LT by 6. LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina: NC by 3. NC by 2.7. NC by 3. Rut by 1/2.
N Carolina St v UCF: NCS by 1. UCF by 3.3. UCF by 2. UCF by 2 1/2
...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils!
Dec 20: ESPN SAGARIN VEGAS Following FB
Nevada v LA-Lafayette: Nev by 4 Nev by 1.4 Nev by 1. ULL by 1/2
Utah St v UTEP: USU by 13 USU by 8.8. USU by 10. USU by 12
Utah v Colorado St: CSU by 3. Utah by 5.6 Utah by 3 CSU by 1/2
W Michigan v Air Force: WM by 7. WM by 0.5. AF by 1.5. AF by 6
Bowling Green v S Alabama: BG by 1 SA by 2.4. SA by 3. SA by 1/2
Dec 22
BYU v Memphis: Mem by 7. Mem by 2.0 Mem by 1.5. Mem by 3
Dec 23
Marshall v N Illinois: Mrsh by 7. Mrsh by 12.5. Mrsh by 10 Mrsh by 4
Navy v San Diego St: SDSU by 1. SDSU by 3.1. SDSU by 3. Navy by 1
Dec 24
C Michigan v W Kentucky: WK by 13. WK by 5.0. WK by 4. WK by 5
Fresno St v Rice: Rice by 8. Rice by 2.6. Rice by 2.5 Rice by 1/2
Dec 26
Illinois v Louisiana Tech: LT by 11. LT by 9.1. LT by 6. LT by 4
Rutgers v North Carolina: NC by 3. NC by 2.7. NC by 3. Rut by 1/2.
N Carolina St v UCF: NCS by 1. UCF by 3.3. UCF by 2. UCF by 2 1/2
...and we'll pick up the second week later in this week. But for Bowl Season, we're scoring a little differently...or at least, a little additionally! We'll ALSO keep a tally of which of these four highly esteemed methodologies picks the highest number of game winners, straight up. To the victor belong the non-existent spoils!
Wednesday, December 24, 2014
Hey! NFL stat geeks!
And here's a fun little article, also from Five-Thirty-Eight, on the NFL playoffs, the atrocity of the NFC South, the unlikelihood of Philadelphia not making the playoffs, the unlikelihood of Atlanta making the playoffs, the amazing powers of Odelle Beckham, Jr., and some cool graphs and charts! Enjoy!
Whither art thou so maniest bowl games?
Here's a good piece from Five-Thirty-Eight about the merits of having mediocre teams in bowl games, and the trends thereabouts. It's not as bad as you'd think - for some of the "Group Of Five" teams, it may be the only time recruits outside their state see them play, and coached LOVE the extra fifteen practices you get for being in a bowl game of ANY caliber!
A little Aussie in our Christmas stocking!
Here's a taste of Aussie Rules this Christmas, with a Christmas wish list from each of the eighteen AFL teams for the coming year (with pre-season just two months away!)!
Fiesta Bowl, eat your heart out...
As a longtime Boise State follower, it's hard to beat the 2007 Fiesta Bowl as the greatest college game of my lifetime (the USC-Texas/Vince Young national title game is the only one I have above it), but piece the highlights together from today's Bahamas Bowl between Western Kentucky and Central Michigan, two medium level teams who played an amazing game today.
WKU scored touchdowns on all six of their first half possessions and led 49-14 going into the fourth quarter. With less than twelve minutes left, CMU scored the first of their five consecutive touchdowns: the first two just looked like garbage time scores to pretty up the final tally, the third brings them within two TDs with just over three minutes to go; the fourth with 1:06 to go seems to mean an onside kick has to be successful...but using their timeouts, they get the ball punted back to them with one second left, on their own 25. CMU QB Cooper Rush threw a Hail Mary to about the thirty, and four laterals later, Titus Davis stretched out to reach the pylon and tie the game...
...except that CMU head coach Dan Enos has balls the size of Wilson.
No time on the clock, extra point pending, he decided to go for two - win or lose on one play.
I'm all for it, and I'll tell you why.
First, who cares? It's a BOWL GAME. It doesn't really affect your standings, your conference record, or anything else. Why not?
Secondly, they had ALL the momentum! CMU had just scored five touchdowns in less than twelve minutes. Western Kentucky hadn't stopped them in forever - why not?
Thirdly, the football gods were with them! One play for the win when you just pulled off a play that looked like The Play? Why not?
But fourth and most importantly, it shows your current and future players that you have balls. When push came to shove, you trusted your players to win or lose that game. It's the flip side of the coach that refuses to go for 4th and 1 at midfield and punts instead ("because we're playing the 'field position' game...") or at the goal line and tries the field goal ("because we need the points on the board") instead of trusting that if you miss, your defense will get it done. It's the same thing as the Pulaski (ARK) Academy "never punt" theory that says, trust your players to win games, instead of playing scared and not to lose. It's playing the game with courage and integrity, instead of pussyfooting around and trying to deflect the blame to your players if you lose. Be a man, coach. Play to win, like Enos did.
(Did they win or lose? I won't tell you...because it doesn't matter. It was the guts to try it that mattered.)
WKU scored touchdowns on all six of their first half possessions and led 49-14 going into the fourth quarter. With less than twelve minutes left, CMU scored the first of their five consecutive touchdowns: the first two just looked like garbage time scores to pretty up the final tally, the third brings them within two TDs with just over three minutes to go; the fourth with 1:06 to go seems to mean an onside kick has to be successful...but using their timeouts, they get the ball punted back to them with one second left, on their own 25. CMU QB Cooper Rush threw a Hail Mary to about the thirty, and four laterals later, Titus Davis stretched out to reach the pylon and tie the game...
...except that CMU head coach Dan Enos has balls the size of Wilson.
No time on the clock, extra point pending, he decided to go for two - win or lose on one play.
I'm all for it, and I'll tell you why.
First, who cares? It's a BOWL GAME. It doesn't really affect your standings, your conference record, or anything else. Why not?
Secondly, they had ALL the momentum! CMU had just scored five touchdowns in less than twelve minutes. Western Kentucky hadn't stopped them in forever - why not?
Thirdly, the football gods were with them! One play for the win when you just pulled off a play that looked like The Play? Why not?
But fourth and most importantly, it shows your current and future players that you have balls. When push came to shove, you trusted your players to win or lose that game. It's the flip side of the coach that refuses to go for 4th and 1 at midfield and punts instead ("because we're playing the 'field position' game...") or at the goal line and tries the field goal ("because we need the points on the board") instead of trusting that if you miss, your defense will get it done. It's the same thing as the Pulaski (ARK) Academy "never punt" theory that says, trust your players to win games, instead of playing scared and not to lose. It's playing the game with courage and integrity, instead of pussyfooting around and trying to deflect the blame to your players if you lose. Be a man, coach. Play to win, like Enos did.
(Did they win or lose? I won't tell you...because it doesn't matter. It was the guts to try it that mattered.)
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
It's the FINAL COUNTDOWN!
It's the last game of the season for twenty NFL teams this Sunday, and determination of the next few games for the other twelve! Here's a look at all sixteen games, comparing the predictions of Following Football, the Vegas casino line, the Sagarin Ratings, Nate Silver, and the ELO rating system from Five-Thirty-Eight...
The actual result of the game is in bold at left...our prediction was in BLUE. We went 6-7-3 over this last week against the spread, although we did correctly choose 12 of 16 winners.
Game Following FB Casino Line Sagarin Nate Silver ELO
CLE @ BAL by 10 BAL by 7. BAL by 9. BAL by 9.9. BAL by 9.2 B by 10.0
With the Browns sinking slowly into the morass of their QB situation, the Ravens should win this and give themselves a fighting shot at that last wild card spot.
DAL by 27 @ WAS DAL by 7. DAL by 7. DAL by 9.9. DAL by 6.7 D by 10.0
The Cowboys can make their bid for a bye with a win, which is more than their opponents can muster in playing out the string.
IND by 17 @ TEN IND by 7. IND by 6.5 IND by 14.7. IND by 12.8 I by 9.5
As bad as the Colts looked last week, the Titans have looked that bad EVERY week.
JAX @ HOU by 6 HOU by 11 HOU by 9.5 HOU by 15.2. HOU by 10.3 H by 11.0
See previous entry. This will probably be ugly because the Texans not only have a very slight chance to make the second wild card slot, they also have their longshot JJ Watt for MVP campaign to finish with a bang.
SD @ KC by 12 KC by 1 KC by 2.5. KC by 4.6. KC by 3.3 K by 2.0
This should be a really good intradivisional game, with the Chargers having the larger chance at grabbing a wild card spot. Personally, I think the favorite really should be SD, but the numbers say otherwise.
NYJ by 13 @ MIA MIA by 11. MIA by 5.5. MIA by 12.1. MIA by 6.7 M by 9.0
Both teams are headed home for the offseason. Possibly, though, both coaches are fighting for their jobs for next year, which changes their motivations!
CHI @ MIN by 4 MIN by 5. MIN by 6.5. MIN by 6.2. MIN by 6.7 M by 5.5
Looks like Trestman has given up on the season by pulling Cutler, so whatever the long term consequences are for the Bears, this game should end up on Teddy's highlight reel.
BUF by 8 @ NE NE by 9.5 NE by 10 NE by 11.1. NE by 9.9 N by 11.5
Orton is looking very competent right now, but Brady is Brady, and the Pats have something to play for, so we see NE with ease.
PHI by 8 @ NYG PHI by 2 NYG by 3 PHI by 2.5 NYG by 1.0 N by 0.5
Here's the first of just two games where Following Football disagrees with Vegas. Both cases involve back up QBs that FF has more faith in than the casinos (and bettors) do!
NO by 3 @ TB NO by 1 NO by 4 NO by 4.3 NO by 3.7 N by 3.0
Somehow, the Saints have been eliminated from a race they're tied in...because if the Falcons win, they have the head-to-head tiebreaker, and if the Panthers win, they have that pesky tie giving them the half game edge. So the game that MATTERS is...
CAR by 31 @ ATL ATL by 4 ATL by 4 ATL by 3.9. ATL by 3.8 A by 2.0
Pretty consistent across the board. The mystery: will the Atlanta coach screw it up?
DET @ GB by 10 GB by 5 GB by 7.5 GB by 6.2 GB by 7.5 G by 4.5
Packers at home seem the logical preference. But what if the Lions really CAN get it done in Green Bay? Actually, we think they might!
OAK @ DEN by 33 DEN by 13 DEN by 14.5. DEN by 19.2 DEN by 14.0 D by 16
Hard to believe this a month ago, but the Raiders have a chance here! They're playing better than they have all season, and Denver is not on all cylinders at the moment.
ARZ @ SF by 3 ARZ by 2 SF by 6 ARZ by 2.9 SF by 4.4 EVEN!
This is the other game we disagree on: FF believes the Cardinal D will take care of the ineffective 49ers offense, while Vegas thinks the QB situation is a bigger deal than that. Regardless, the division winner will come from...
STL @ SEA by 14 SEA by 11 SEA by 11 SEA by 12.8 SEA by 11.5 Se by 14.5
As good as the Rams have been playing, NO ONE is betting against the Seahawks right now. They win, the NFC goes through Seattle, and they go to the Super Bowl.
CIN @ PIT by 10 PIT by 4 PIT by 3.5 PIT by 1.6. PIT by 3.5 P by 3.0
This will be a much more interesting game after the Bengals win against Denver. If they look that good in Steeltown, they'll win the division. (It's winner take the 2 or 3 seed; loser gets #6!) Only the home field advantage dictates the difference!
The actual result of the game is in bold at left...our prediction was in BLUE. We went 6-7-3 over this last week against the spread, although we did correctly choose 12 of 16 winners.
Game Following FB Casino Line Sagarin Nate Silver ELO
CLE @ BAL by 10 BAL by 7. BAL by 9. BAL by 9.9. BAL by 9.2 B by 10.0
With the Browns sinking slowly into the morass of their QB situation, the Ravens should win this and give themselves a fighting shot at that last wild card spot.
DAL by 27 @ WAS DAL by 7. DAL by 7. DAL by 9.9. DAL by 6.7 D by 10.0
The Cowboys can make their bid for a bye with a win, which is more than their opponents can muster in playing out the string.
IND by 17 @ TEN IND by 7. IND by 6.5 IND by 14.7. IND by 12.8 I by 9.5
As bad as the Colts looked last week, the Titans have looked that bad EVERY week.
JAX @ HOU by 6 HOU by 11 HOU by 9.5 HOU by 15.2. HOU by 10.3 H by 11.0
See previous entry. This will probably be ugly because the Texans not only have a very slight chance to make the second wild card slot, they also have their longshot JJ Watt for MVP campaign to finish with a bang.
SD @ KC by 12 KC by 1 KC by 2.5. KC by 4.6. KC by 3.3 K by 2.0
This should be a really good intradivisional game, with the Chargers having the larger chance at grabbing a wild card spot. Personally, I think the favorite really should be SD, but the numbers say otherwise.
NYJ by 13 @ MIA MIA by 11. MIA by 5.5. MIA by 12.1. MIA by 6.7 M by 9.0
Both teams are headed home for the offseason. Possibly, though, both coaches are fighting for their jobs for next year, which changes their motivations!
CHI @ MIN by 4 MIN by 5. MIN by 6.5. MIN by 6.2. MIN by 6.7 M by 5.5
Looks like Trestman has given up on the season by pulling Cutler, so whatever the long term consequences are for the Bears, this game should end up on Teddy's highlight reel.
BUF by 8 @ NE NE by 9.5 NE by 10 NE by 11.1. NE by 9.9 N by 11.5
Orton is looking very competent right now, but Brady is Brady, and the Pats have something to play for, so we see NE with ease.
PHI by 8 @ NYG PHI by 2 NYG by 3 PHI by 2.5 NYG by 1.0 N by 0.5
Here's the first of just two games where Following Football disagrees with Vegas. Both cases involve back up QBs that FF has more faith in than the casinos (and bettors) do!
NO by 3 @ TB NO by 1 NO by 4 NO by 4.3 NO by 3.7 N by 3.0
Somehow, the Saints have been eliminated from a race they're tied in...because if the Falcons win, they have the head-to-head tiebreaker, and if the Panthers win, they have that pesky tie giving them the half game edge. So the game that MATTERS is...
CAR by 31 @ ATL ATL by 4 ATL by 4 ATL by 3.9. ATL by 3.8 A by 2.0
Pretty consistent across the board. The mystery: will the Atlanta coach screw it up?
DET @ GB by 10 GB by 5 GB by 7.5 GB by 6.2 GB by 7.5 G by 4.5
Packers at home seem the logical preference. But what if the Lions really CAN get it done in Green Bay? Actually, we think they might!
OAK @ DEN by 33 DEN by 13 DEN by 14.5. DEN by 19.2 DEN by 14.0 D by 16
Hard to believe this a month ago, but the Raiders have a chance here! They're playing better than they have all season, and Denver is not on all cylinders at the moment.
ARZ @ SF by 3 ARZ by 2 SF by 6 ARZ by 2.9 SF by 4.4 EVEN!
This is the other game we disagree on: FF believes the Cardinal D will take care of the ineffective 49ers offense, while Vegas thinks the QB situation is a bigger deal than that. Regardless, the division winner will come from...
STL @ SEA by 14 SEA by 11 SEA by 11 SEA by 12.8 SEA by 11.5 Se by 14.5
As good as the Rams have been playing, NO ONE is betting against the Seahawks right now. They win, the NFC goes through Seattle, and they go to the Super Bowl.
CIN @ PIT by 10 PIT by 4 PIT by 3.5 PIT by 1.6. PIT by 3.5 P by 3.0
This will be a much more interesting game after the Bengals win against Denver. If they look that good in Steeltown, they'll win the division. (It's winner take the 2 or 3 seed; loser gets #6!) Only the home field advantage dictates the difference!
Tiered NFL Rankings for Week 16!
After the upset of the Broncos in Cincinnati last night, here are the updated tiers and rankings for the NFL after Week 16:
Tier A: 1. New England, 2. Seattle, 3. Green Bay.
Tier B: 4. Denver, 5. Dallas, 6. Arizona, 7. Detroit, 8. Pittsburgh
Tier C: 9. Indianapolis, 10. Cincinnati, 11. Baltimore, 12. San Diego, 13. Philadelphia.
Tier D: 14. Miami, 15. Houston, 16. Buffalo, 17. Kansas City
Tier E: 18. San Francisco, 19. St. Louis, 20. Cleveland
Tier F: 21. Atlanta, 22. NY Giants, 23. New Orleans, 24. Carolina, 25. Minnesota
Tier G: 26. Washington, 27. Oakland, 28. Chicago
Tier H: 29. NY Jets, 30. Jacksonville, 31. Tampa Bay, 32. Tennessee.
The Broncos may not be the dominant team we thought they were, so we've moved them down a tier in response to the Bengals' definitive victory.
With the Broncos' loss last night, we went 11-3 against the spread this week. Pretty good!
Tier A: 1. New England, 2. Seattle, 3. Green Bay.
Tier B: 4. Denver, 5. Dallas, 6. Arizona, 7. Detroit, 8. Pittsburgh
Tier C: 9. Indianapolis, 10. Cincinnati, 11. Baltimore, 12. San Diego, 13. Philadelphia.
Tier D: 14. Miami, 15. Houston, 16. Buffalo, 17. Kansas City
Tier E: 18. San Francisco, 19. St. Louis, 20. Cleveland
Tier F: 21. Atlanta, 22. NY Giants, 23. New Orleans, 24. Carolina, 25. Minnesota
Tier G: 26. Washington, 27. Oakland, 28. Chicago
Tier H: 29. NY Jets, 30. Jacksonville, 31. Tampa Bay, 32. Tennessee.
The Broncos may not be the dominant team we thought they were, so we've moved them down a tier in response to the Bengals' definitive victory.
With the Broncos' loss last night, we went 11-3 against the spread this week. Pretty good!
Sunday, December 21, 2014
About NFL Week 16...
Pride before a fall...before the Seattle/Arizona game, Following Football is 2-0 outpredicting the casinos: Baltimore lost outright to Houston, and San Diego not only took the 49ers to OT despite their great start last night, they won outright.
But more than that, if you used our predictions to bet against the spread in this week's games, you'd've gone 10-2 with two games that were washes and two still to go!
(Therefore, we're about to look like fools in these last two games!)
UPDATE: Yup. Seattle just annihilated the team with the fourth string QB. NOT really a surprise, but it won't show up on a pure performance based model. So, we fall to 10-3 against the spread this week (w Denver/Cincy to go), and we went 2-1 outpredicting the casinos, moving to 37-34-3 for the year.
The Oakland Raiders look like they're starting to gel a little bit, don't they? Sure, they're just 3-12, but the wins against KC, SF, and now Buffalo all had some guts involved in them... The Houston Texans may not be playoff bound, but they're sure campaigning for an MVP candidate! The visual of the bloodied JJ Watt dominating the Ravens' offense will stick with the voters... The Indianapolis Colts look like the very definition of "pretenders"... The Jacksonville/Tennessee game Thursday night was a pathetic battle of 2-12 teams doomed to failure today and the impending future, containing no real stars worth watching, still managed to beat the last ever episode of The Colbert Report and every other show on cable Thursday night, So...still think that the NFL is an endangered species?
(Maybe, but not in the next few years...)
Playoffs are getting clearer...the Eagles are out, and all that's left to really determine in the NFC besides seeding is the "winner" of the South division, which will come from the winner of the game Sunday between two six-win teams, Atlanta and Carolina. Meanwhile, the AFC still has a host of eight and nine win teams fighting over a dwindling number of slots, now that the Pittsburgh Steelers hit ten wins and clinched a spot of some sort. So, two places remain, facing the Steelers, Patriots, Broncos, and Colts.
UPDATE: It's really hard to watch the Seattle Seahawks decimate the Arizona Cardinals, 35-6 as the clock is running out, and NOT think they're the favorite to repeat as Super Bowl champions in the same stadium they won in tonight. Hop onto ESPN.com and take a look at Marshawn Lynch's impossible run for a 79-yard touchdown, as well as Russell Wilson's sick TD run towards the end of the game. You won't be disappointed.
But more than that, if you used our predictions to bet against the spread in this week's games, you'd've gone 10-2 with two games that were washes and two still to go!
(Therefore, we're about to look like fools in these last two games!)
UPDATE: Yup. Seattle just annihilated the team with the fourth string QB. NOT really a surprise, but it won't show up on a pure performance based model. So, we fall to 10-3 against the spread this week (w Denver/Cincy to go), and we went 2-1 outpredicting the casinos, moving to 37-34-3 for the year.
The Oakland Raiders look like they're starting to gel a little bit, don't they? Sure, they're just 3-12, but the wins against KC, SF, and now Buffalo all had some guts involved in them... The Houston Texans may not be playoff bound, but they're sure campaigning for an MVP candidate! The visual of the bloodied JJ Watt dominating the Ravens' offense will stick with the voters... The Indianapolis Colts look like the very definition of "pretenders"... The Jacksonville/Tennessee game Thursday night was a pathetic battle of 2-12 teams doomed to failure today and the impending future, containing no real stars worth watching, still managed to beat the last ever episode of The Colbert Report and every other show on cable Thursday night, So...still think that the NFL is an endangered species?
(Maybe, but not in the next few years...)
Playoffs are getting clearer...the Eagles are out, and all that's left to really determine in the NFC besides seeding is the "winner" of the South division, which will come from the winner of the game Sunday between two six-win teams, Atlanta and Carolina. Meanwhile, the AFC still has a host of eight and nine win teams fighting over a dwindling number of slots, now that the Pittsburgh Steelers hit ten wins and clinched a spot of some sort. So, two places remain, facing the Steelers, Patriots, Broncos, and Colts.
UPDATE: It's really hard to watch the Seattle Seahawks decimate the Arizona Cardinals, 35-6 as the clock is running out, and NOT think they're the favorite to repeat as Super Bowl champions in the same stadium they won in tonight. Hop onto ESPN.com and take a look at Marshawn Lynch's impossible run for a 79-yard touchdown, as well as Russell Wilson's sick TD run towards the end of the game. You won't be disappointed.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Bill McCartney: Man of Conviction.
For anyone who doesn't remember Bill McCartney, the greatest football coach the University of Colorado ever had, Michael Weinreb has a great interview and retrospective on the man whose Godly convictions overwhelmed his love for coaching.
As a Christian man myself, to watch a Godly man put himself where his mouth is, so to speak, is inspiring. But for anyone, you have to respect someone who stands behind his beliefs to the point where he gave up what was at the time one of the best coaching jobs in the country to follow his heart.
I (this is Gordon) was a successful band director for thirty years before an illness forced me into semi-retirement. The illness, in a very real sense, led me to the Lord, and the new path that He moved into my life would not have been possible had I remained a band director: the time that job took was prohibitive, and like Bill's, my family suffered for it. And (like him), extolling my Christian values was and is difficult when your employer is a state-run entity.
I encourage you to read this. It's a portrait of a man who knows what's important.
As a Christian man myself, to watch a Godly man put himself where his mouth is, so to speak, is inspiring. But for anyone, you have to respect someone who stands behind his beliefs to the point where he gave up what was at the time one of the best coaching jobs in the country to follow his heart.
I (this is Gordon) was a successful band director for thirty years before an illness forced me into semi-retirement. The illness, in a very real sense, led me to the Lord, and the new path that He moved into my life would not have been possible had I remained a band director: the time that job took was prohibitive, and like Bill's, my family suffered for it. And (like him), extolling my Christian values was and is difficult when your employer is a state-run entity.
I encourage you to read this. It's a portrait of a man who knows what's important.
Awesome. Maybe "NFL" isn't "no fun league" after all...
Remember when the Bills' home game against the Jets was snowed out, and they had to move the game to Detroit? The Lions weren't home that week, so Ford Field was available - it was still an inconvenience, we're sure, but in the end the big picture is what counted to the Lions.
Well, apparently the Bills were very appreciative...
Well, apparently the Bills were very appreciative...
A reversal of roles for JJ Watt!
It's one thing to ask a superstar like JJ Watt for his autograph.
It's quite another to figure that you're going to be such a big star yourself that it's appropriate to send JJ Watt your own autographed jersey!!
ESPN shares Watt's tweet on the subject.
It's quite another to figure that you're going to be such a big star yourself that it's appropriate to send JJ Watt your own autographed jersey!!
ESPN shares Watt's tweet on the subject.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
NFL predictions for the penultimate Week 16!
(There's your "word of the day" - "penultimate"! The one before the 'ultimate', the second to last. Use it in conversation once today!)
Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]
So, here's Week 16!
THUR FF Tiers Vegas line Sagarin Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville Jax -3 Jax -3 Jax - 3.0 Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington Phi -7 Phi -9 Phi - 9.3 Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco EVEN SF - 2 SD - 0.7 SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami Mia -5 Mia -7 Mia -8.1 Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston HOU -1 BAL - 6 BAL -1.2 Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago Det -5 Det -7 Det - 4.0 Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina Car - 1 Car - 4 Car - 1.0 Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans NO - 2 NO - 6.5 NO -3.1 NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB -11 GB - 10.5 GB - 11.3 GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Pit -4.5 Pit - 3.5 KC - 1.9 Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets NE -10.5 NE -10.5 NE -15.2 NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis StL - 6.5 StL -5 StL - 5.9 StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland Buf - 5 Buf -6 Buf - 9.3 Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas Dal -1 Dal -3 Indy -1.1 Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona Ariz -2 Sea -9 Ariz -0.6 Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati Den - 1 Den - 3.5 Den -5.4 Den -2.5
So, a couple of observations...
The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).
Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.
Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]
Here are the predictions for the sixteen games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday this week in the National Football League, from four sources: Following Football's tiered rankings, Sagarin ratings, the Vegas casino consensus, AND the "Elo rating system" from the website Five-Thirty-Eight, run by the quasi-legendary Nate Silver. Elo has been used in chess for decades, maybe centuries; and it's just now developing a following in other activities. It's actually very simple, and it's the basis for Following Football's Australian Rules Footy ranking system introduced last week: When you beat a team, your rating goes UP and theirs goes DOWN by exactly the same amount. How MUCH depends on how your ratings compared to begin with: if you beat a team you're "supposed" to beat, it won't change very much, but if it's an upset, the change will be more radical. [Word to the prudent: I'm estimating the change factors for this week because 538 hasn't published its actual predictions for Week 16 as of Tuesday; I will update this post when they do so, probably Thursday afternoon.]
So, here's Week 16!
THUR FF Tiers Vegas line Sagarin Elo Ratings
Tennessee @ Jacksonville Jax -3 Jax -3 Jax - 3.0 Jax - 1.0
SAT
Philadelphia @ Washington Phi -7 Phi -9 Phi - 9.3 Phi - 7.5
San Diego @ San Francisco EVEN SF - 2 SD - 0.7 SF - 2.0
SUN
Minnesota @ Miami Mia -5 Mia -7 Mia -8.1 Mia -4.0
Baltimore @ Houston HOU -1 BAL - 6 BAL -1.2 Bal -2.5
Detroit @ Chicago Det -5 Det -7 Det - 4.0 Det -2.5
Cleveland @ Carolina Car - 1 Car - 4 Car - 1.0 Car - 4.0
Atlanta @ New Orleans NO - 2 NO - 6.5 NO -3.1 NO - 3.0
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay GB -11 GB - 10.5 GB - 11.3 GB - 8.0
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Pit -4.5 Pit - 3.5 KC - 1.9 Pit - 3.0
New England @ New York Jets NE -10.5 NE -10.5 NE -15.2 NE - 10.5
New York Giants @ St. Louis StL - 6.5 StL -5 StL - 5.9 StL -4.5
Buffalo @ Oakland Buf - 5 Buf -6 Buf - 9.3 Buf -3.5
Indianapolis @ Dallas Dal -1 Dal -3 Indy -1.1 Dal -1.0
Seattle @ Arizona Ariz -2 Sea -9 Ariz -0.6 Sea -2.0
MON
Devner @ Cincinnati Den - 1 Den - 3.5 Den -5.4 Den -2.5
So, a couple of observations...
The three games that we'll put on the "betting block" this week are (as noted above) Baltimore at Houston (we like the Texans at home; Vegas thinks it's the Ravens all the way, with the computers backing them to a slight degree - we'll claim the point if the game goes into overtime or Houston wins outright), San Diego at San Francisco (we've always believed that Vegas loves the 49ers because of all the Northern CA money that comes across the Sierras to bet on them - again, if SD wins or there's OT, we'll claim the point), and the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle at Arizona (HUGE discrepancy here - Sagarin agrees with us that the Cardinals are the favorites at home; Elo agrees with Vegas that the defenders should be favored. We'll take Seattle -2.5 as the tipping point; anything above that is Vegas' point.).
Sagarin's ratings differ from all other projections in four other Sunday games, marked above: they seem to have a fetish for Kansas City (preferring them IN Pittsburgh!), New England (fifteen points in an NFL game is HUGE!), Buffalo (we love the Bills' defense, too, but Oakland ALWAYS plays strong!), and Indianapolis (to be fair and honest, we didn't give Dallas their supposed "home field advantage this week, because they're 3-4 at home and 7-0 on the road this year!). Or maybe it's that they don't like their opponents (Pittsburgh, the Jets, Oakland, and Dallas)? It'll be interesting to see. Notice that the Elo ratings never seem to deviate TOO far from the norms.
Our record so far this year is down to 35-33-3, indicative of sheer guesswork. But I feel comfortable with our "guesswork" this year, and we'll continue to refine the system so it'll work everywhere (except maybe in the NFL, where parity is mandated!) We were actually ahead 3-1 last week after Saturday, but we lost all three of the PRO games, including last night's smashing of the Bears by the resurgent (for the moment) Saints. [By the way, with the win, the Saints move into the theoretical driver's seat with the wretched NFC South; they can (and should) win out to win the division at 8-8!]
Monday, December 15, 2014
...AND, what about the "wooden spoon"? Who gets the first draft pick?
Six teams have a shot at the worst record in the NFL: Tennessee, Oakland, Jacksonville, and Tampa all have 2-12 records, with the New York Jets and Washington one game up at 3-11.
Projecting the last two games, the key may be the Tennessee at Jacksonville debacle this Thursday night - talk about a bad game. This season has shown that teams simply are not ready to play on Thursday nights, and the game is either a blowout (with one unprepared team) or a sludge match (with two). Add to that two BAD teams to begin with, and look out, America! You've been warned!
Regardless, the winner of that game probably takes themselves out of contention, because they'll each be heavy underdogs against division heavyweights Indy and Houston in week 17, even with extra time to prepare. Meanwhile, Oakland will be the underdog week 17 at Denver UNLESS they rest everybody for the playoff run (possible), but they'd still lose in more likelihood. This week's game, hosting Buffalo, may be more winnable. And Tampa Bay has two games that are at home, but against teams that need to win for their own playoff ambitions (Green Bay, New Orleans). All other things equal, we'd bet on the Buccaneers being the most likely to finish 2-14. But, if Tennessee loses both games, they ARE the #1 pick.
SO...who will make the NFL playoffs?
With two weeks left in the season, we're still only down to about twenty teams who can still be one of the twelve playoff teams! Eleven AFC teams are still eligible for the tournament, although three spots were clinched yesterday (division champs Denver, Indianapolis, and New England). Meanwhile, six teams fight for five spots in the NFC, plus the one team who will eventually "win" the NFC Southern division out of three candidates still vying for the spot.
Projecting the likely winners of the Week 16 & 17 games from the Following Football tiers, we have predictions of those playoff teams:
NFC: East - Philadelphia (win at Wash, win at NYG) = 11-5-0
Dallas (loss v. Indy, win at Wash) = 11-5-0
North - Green Bay (win at Tampa, win v. Det) = 12-4-0
Detroit (win at Chic, loss at Green Bay) = 11-5-0
South - New Orleans (loss tonight at Chic, win v Atl, win at TB) = 7-9-0
Carolina (win v. Cleveland, loss at Atlanta) = 6-9-1
Atlanta (loss at New Orleans, win v Carolina) = 6-10-0
West - Arizona (win v Seattle, win at SF) = 13-3-0
Seattle (loss at Ariz, win v. StL) = 11-5-0
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = Arizona (13-3)
#2 seed = Green Bay (12-4)
#3 seed = Philadelphia (11-5) [better div record than Dallas]
#4 seed = New Orleans (7-9)
#5 seed = Detroit (11-5) [better conf. record than Dallas or Seattle]
#6 seed = Dallas (11-5) [def. Seattle head-to-head]
...and Seattle's out of the playoffs...
AFC: East - *New England (win at NYJ, win v. Buff) = 13-3-0
Miami (win v. Minn, win v. NYJ) = 9-7-0
Buffalo (win at Oak, loss at NE) = 9-7-0
North - Pittsburgh (win v KC, win v. Cinc) = 11-5-0
Baltimore (loss at Hous, win v Clev) = 10-6-0
Cincinnati (loss v Denv, loss at Pitt) = 9-6-1
Cleveland (loss at Carol, loss at Balt) = 7-9-0
South - *Indianapolis (win at Dal, win at Ten) = 12-4-0
Houston (win v Balt, win v. Jax) = 9-7-0
West - *Denver (win at Cinc, win v Oak) = 13-3-0
Kansas City (loss at Pitt, win v SD) = 9-7-0
San Diego (loss at SF, loss at KC) = 8-8-0
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = New England (13-3) [def. Denver head to head]
#2 seed = Denver (13-3)
#3 seed = Indianapolis (12-4)
#4 seed = Pittsburgh (11-5)
#5 seed = Baltimore (10-6)
#6 seed = Cincinnati (9-6-1)
...alas, no up-n-comers (Miami, Buffalo, Houston, KC all 9-7; that tie keeps the Bengals in the playoffs after all!)...
Our forecast beyond that? Anything goes. "We predict that one of those twelve teams will win the Super Bowl!" That's the most we'll commit to in a one-game knockout tournament where the #6 seed has won as often as the #1 seeds have!
Projecting the likely winners of the Week 16 & 17 games from the Following Football tiers, we have predictions of those playoff teams:
NFC: East - Philadelphia (win at Wash, win at NYG) = 11-5-0
Dallas (loss v. Indy, win at Wash) = 11-5-0
North - Green Bay (win at Tampa, win v. Det) = 12-4-0
Detroit (win at Chic, loss at Green Bay) = 11-5-0
South - New Orleans (loss tonight at Chic, win v Atl, win at TB) = 7-9-0
Carolina (win v. Cleveland, loss at Atlanta) = 6-9-1
Atlanta (loss at New Orleans, win v Carolina) = 6-10-0
West - Arizona (win v Seattle, win at SF) = 13-3-0
Seattle (loss at Ariz, win v. StL) = 11-5-0
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = Arizona (13-3)
#2 seed = Green Bay (12-4)
#3 seed = Philadelphia (11-5) [better div record than Dallas]
#4 seed = New Orleans (7-9)
#5 seed = Detroit (11-5) [better conf. record than Dallas or Seattle]
#6 seed = Dallas (11-5) [def. Seattle head-to-head]
...and Seattle's out of the playoffs...
AFC: East - *New England (win at NYJ, win v. Buff) = 13-3-0
Miami (win v. Minn, win v. NYJ) = 9-7-0
Buffalo (win at Oak, loss at NE) = 9-7-0
North - Pittsburgh (win v KC, win v. Cinc) = 11-5-0
Baltimore (loss at Hous, win v Clev) = 10-6-0
Cincinnati (loss v Denv, loss at Pitt) = 9-6-1
Cleveland (loss at Carol, loss at Balt) = 7-9-0
South - *Indianapolis (win at Dal, win at Ten) = 12-4-0
Houston (win v Balt, win v. Jax) = 9-7-0
West - *Denver (win at Cinc, win v Oak) = 13-3-0
Kansas City (loss at Pitt, win v SD) = 9-7-0
San Diego (loss at SF, loss at KC) = 8-8-0
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS:
#1 seed = New England (13-3) [def. Denver head to head]
#2 seed = Denver (13-3)
#3 seed = Indianapolis (12-4)
#4 seed = Pittsburgh (11-5)
#5 seed = Baltimore (10-6)
#6 seed = Cincinnati (9-6-1)
...alas, no up-n-comers (Miami, Buffalo, Houston, KC all 9-7; that tie keeps the Bengals in the playoffs after all!)...
Our forecast beyond that? Anything goes. "We predict that one of those twelve teams will win the Super Bowl!" That's the most we'll commit to in a one-game knockout tournament where the #6 seed has won as often as the #1 seeds have!
Here's our updated NFL "FOLLOWING FOOTBALL" tiered ranks for Week 15!
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Some notes - with the Packers' loss to the Bills yesterday, the Pats move up to the number 1 spot, with Denver right behind. Dallas and Arizona moved up partly on their Week 15 games but also on the overall body of work, verified by an impressive win this weekend.
Because of the NFC South debacle (the winner is guaranteed a sub-.500 record), there are six NFC teams in spots 3 through 9 fighting for FIVE playoff spots. No need to beat that dead horse, but it seems likely that Philly and Dallas are fighting for ONE spot at this point.
Also, three teams clinched divisions in the AFC, indicated with asterisks above. That leaves three spots, and the three nine-win teams in the North division all have the inside track on those, with six other teams (in tier-ranks 13-19) within conceivable distance of overtaking them.
Finally, the Jets did themselves no favors by beating the Titans in the first 16-11 game in NFL history (that just seems weird!) - now, they're a "game out" of the lead for the first draft pick, and with four teams "ahead" of them at the moment, it seems more unlikely that the quarterback they need will still be there at pick five.
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