To be frank, we're not all that satisfied with our ELO rating system, for either Australian Rules Football or for the Canadian brand in the CFL so far this season. It's doing an adequate job of forecasting the outcome of games, but no better than what we can do on our own - and in the CFL, that's saying something!
Sidelight: Here's how unpredictable the CFL has been so far this year. For comparison, we'll start with the footy season...
In the tipping contest AFL.com.au is running, the range of scores from the contestants spans from a low right around 50% correct (flipping a coin) to a high of 77% (we are currently running very close to the top, around 75%). An average score is around 60%. Got all that?
For the CFL contest, there have been eight games played so far.
NOBODY has gotten all eight right.
Only TWO people (out of 11,000) have gotten SEVEN right.
We have successfully predicted only three out of the eight games so far, worse than fifty-fifty...yet we are in the top-half of the contest (the average score is about 2 1/2 right, out of eight).
We are still doing better than the professionals, however: BoDog, the official gambling outlet for the CFL, has posted the line for each game and been WRONG 75% choosing the winner.
Impressively, the CFL.ca writer in charge of predicting games for the league, Jamie Nye, is five for eight so far - WAY above average!
The problem has been the quarterbacks: So many have been knocked out of games that the favorites become the underdogs DURING the game! In four of the games already, starters have left the game for the favorites, leaving the underdogs to rise up and win. Two others were severely altered by substitute QB play, one in either direction (we can't WAIT to see Marshall's Rakeem Cato play again for Montreal!).
So, back to our experiment:
One of the difficulties with taking as your starting point the way a team ended the previous season is that they change so much over the off-season, and your rating can't keep up because you can't know how those changes will work. So we're re-calculating the seasons in various different ways, by hand, and placing more emphasis on the first of the season games and then tapering off to the normal rate of adjustment as the teams settle in. So far, though, while we've created versions that match the more conventional ratings and power rankings, we've not been able to make one which more accurately predicts the games themselves, which was the entire point of reworking the model.
So, we're still re-working the model. Until then, you'll continue to see the version we've been running. By the way, speaking of that...
CFL - entering Week 3
Hamilton (41.5) - 1-1
Toronto (35.1) - 2-0
Calgary (32.9) - 1-1
Edmonton (30.4) - 0-1
Montreal (29.8) - 1-1
BC Lions (27.4) - 0-1
Saskatchewan (27.0) 0-2
Ottawa (24.4) - 2-0
Winnipeg (21.5) - 1-1
AFL - entering Round 15
Hawthorn (82.8) - 9-4
West Coast (78.5) - 10-3
Sydney (70.0) - 10-3
Fremantle (67.1) - 12-1
Richmond (61.0) - 8-5
Collingwood (60.0) - 8-5
Geelong (57.7) - 6-6-1
Port Adelaide (56.1) - 5-8
Adelaide (52.8) - 7-5-1
North Melbourne (52.2) - 6-7
Western Bulldogs (44.8) - 8-5
GWS Giants (41.7) - 7-6
St. Kilda (36.4) - 5-8
Gold Coast (31.6) - 2-11
Melbourne (30.8) - 4-9
Essendon (30.1) - 4-9
Carlton (26.5) - 3-10
Brisbane (18.9) - 2-11
Showing posts with label Week 15. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 15. Show all posts
Thursday, July 9, 2015
Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Predictions for AFL's round 15!
This week's got a HOST of close games! Stay close to FF, and we'll guide you through!
Thursday night (3:20 am Th morning for the Mountain zone in the US):
Collingwood goes to Port Adelaide - the numbers argue in Port's favor, but don't believe them: Collingwood wins definitively. They are playing great footy right now, the equals of Hawthorn and Fremantle the last two weeks, while Port has realized they're not going to make any noise in 2015 and are riding out the string.
Friday night (3:40 a.m. Friday MDT):
Carlton at Richmond - the Blues have been getting better each week, but as I-man likes to say around here, "Better than bad isn't good." Plan on Richmond winning by plenty, although Carlton will fight hard and tackle well to keep it from being unreasonable.
Saturday's games:
Melbourne plays Essendon - this one's painfully easy, after watching the Bombers lose to St. Kilda by 110 points and watching the players and coaches not care about it. Bet the house on Melbourne. (Not your own house, silly!) I also don't see how coach James Hird can possibly survive nine more games this way.
Gold Coast travels to play the Western Bulldogs - B.A., we'd've said Doggies all the way. (B.A. means "Before Ablett".) With the Little Master's return last week, we suddenly saw the Gold Coast Suns we all thought were finals-bound back in March. Gold Coast in an upset.
Geelong at North Melbourne - The spread on this game is zero, and the ratings on this game are less than half a point, or essentially zero. Close game! We think having twenty days off (between a bye week and the cancellation last Sunday post-death of Adelaide's coach) is a GREAT thing for an older team like Geelong, so we're taking the Cats over the Kangaroos.
Adelaide travels to play West Coast, in the most emotional game of the weekend. Before becoming head man in Adelaide this season, the late Phil Walsh was second in command at West Coast, so both of these teams miss him terribly. When it comes down to nuts and bolts, though, the Eagles are simply better than the Adelaide Crows, probably by 30 or so.
Sunday's games:
St. Kilda at Greater Western Sydney - while the Saints looked great last week, they were playing "witches' hats", or traffic cones; no real competition. GWS figured some things out over their bye and came out strong against Richmond...and St. Kilda ain't Richmond. GWS by three goals.
Fremantle v Hawthorn in Tasmania, where the Hawks have only lost once at their "home away from home"...and as great as the Dockers have been in 2015, Hawthorn won't lose this one, either. Hawthorn by twenty.
Sydney Swans at Brisbane Lions - the one rout (on paper) of round fifteen. (Amazing. Usually, there are at least a few lopsided games!) Sydney's favored by 40, our ratings have it at 46, and the only thing keeping it from going out of hand might be cold weather, showers, or other possible inclimate conditions which might keep the game close for a while. But, like the Lions' valiant effort in Fremantle last Sunday, they'll fight hard and still come away without any premiership points. Sydney wins by about 25-35.
Thursday night (3:20 am Th morning for the Mountain zone in the US):
Collingwood goes to Port Adelaide - the numbers argue in Port's favor, but don't believe them: Collingwood wins definitively. They are playing great footy right now, the equals of Hawthorn and Fremantle the last two weeks, while Port has realized they're not going to make any noise in 2015 and are riding out the string.
Friday night (3:40 a.m. Friday MDT):
Carlton at Richmond - the Blues have been getting better each week, but as I-man likes to say around here, "Better than bad isn't good." Plan on Richmond winning by plenty, although Carlton will fight hard and tackle well to keep it from being unreasonable.
Saturday's games:
Melbourne plays Essendon - this one's painfully easy, after watching the Bombers lose to St. Kilda by 110 points and watching the players and coaches not care about it. Bet the house on Melbourne. (Not your own house, silly!) I also don't see how coach James Hird can possibly survive nine more games this way.
Gold Coast travels to play the Western Bulldogs - B.A., we'd've said Doggies all the way. (B.A. means "Before Ablett".) With the Little Master's return last week, we suddenly saw the Gold Coast Suns we all thought were finals-bound back in March. Gold Coast in an upset.
Geelong at North Melbourne - The spread on this game is zero, and the ratings on this game are less than half a point, or essentially zero. Close game! We think having twenty days off (between a bye week and the cancellation last Sunday post-death of Adelaide's coach) is a GREAT thing for an older team like Geelong, so we're taking the Cats over the Kangaroos.
Adelaide travels to play West Coast, in the most emotional game of the weekend. Before becoming head man in Adelaide this season, the late Phil Walsh was second in command at West Coast, so both of these teams miss him terribly. When it comes down to nuts and bolts, though, the Eagles are simply better than the Adelaide Crows, probably by 30 or so.
Sunday's games:
St. Kilda at Greater Western Sydney - while the Saints looked great last week, they were playing "witches' hats", or traffic cones; no real competition. GWS figured some things out over their bye and came out strong against Richmond...and St. Kilda ain't Richmond. GWS by three goals.
Fremantle v Hawthorn in Tasmania, where the Hawks have only lost once at their "home away from home"...and as great as the Dockers have been in 2015, Hawthorn won't lose this one, either. Hawthorn by twenty.
Sydney Swans at Brisbane Lions - the one rout (on paper) of round fifteen. (Amazing. Usually, there are at least a few lopsided games!) Sydney's favored by 40, our ratings have it at 46, and the only thing keeping it from going out of hand might be cold weather, showers, or other possible inclimate conditions which might keep the game close for a while. But, like the Lions' valiant effort in Fremantle last Sunday, they'll fight hard and still come away without any premiership points. Sydney wins by about 25-35.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Here's our updated NFL "FOLLOWING FOOTBALL" tiered ranks for Week 15!
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Some notes - with the Packers' loss to the Bills yesterday, the Pats move up to the number 1 spot, with Denver right behind. Dallas and Arizona moved up partly on their Week 15 games but also on the overall body of work, verified by an impressive win this weekend.
Because of the NFC South debacle (the winner is guaranteed a sub-.500 record), there are six NFC teams in spots 3 through 9 fighting for FIVE playoff spots. No need to beat that dead horse, but it seems likely that Philly and Dallas are fighting for ONE spot at this point.
Also, three teams clinched divisions in the AFC, indicated with asterisks above. That leaves three spots, and the three nine-win teams in the North division all have the inside track on those, with six other teams (in tier-ranks 13-19) within conceivable distance of overtaking them.
Finally, the Jets did themselves no favors by beating the Titans in the first 16-11 game in NFL history (that just seems weird!) - now, they're a "game out" of the lead for the first draft pick, and with four teams "ahead" of them at the moment, it seems more unlikely that the quarterback they need will still be there at pick five.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
Sunday, Dec 14th in the NFL...
So, a few thoughts as the day progresses...
So, Cleveland coach Mike Pettine...are you satisfied with your decision to start the rookie? 30-0? Interceptions galore? Continual taunting from Bengals players with the stupid "money gesture" of Manziel's? No chance to win?
If you're going to win a game with your defense, as Buffalo was doing, the best way to seal it is to have magical defensive end Mario Williams strip Aaron Rodgers, knock the ball into the end zone, and use the old anti-fumble-forward rule to put the ball dead in the end zone for a safety!
We were wrong to think Washngton would be able to hang with Odell Beckham Jr. and the New Jersey Giants - the Blue men won 24-13, closing our competition gap to Following Football 3, Vegas casinos, 2.
Thanks to an early safety by Tennessee's defense, the scores in the Jets/Titans game were fun to watch scroll across the screen: 5-3...8-3...11-3...11-10...and then the Jets pulled out the win with the first 16-11 score in NFL HISTORY!...and thereby ruined their chances for the first draft pick! It's a strange world...
Dallas Cowboys, take a bow! Yes, you won; yes, you now control the division, etc. But here's the thing: when you went up 21-0, all cylinders firing, that's fine...you've done that. Then Philly came back to blow past you to 24-21, and every sportswriter in America was preparing their lede: "Cowboys blow another one", etc. But you didn't. You immediately put together the most important drive of Coach Garrett's career, threw the pass to the god-like Dez Bryant, and put the game back on cruise control. That was something we DO NOT EXPECT from you, 8-8 Cowboys! But now, at 10-4 and in control of your destiny, we can expect a top finish from you! Congratulations!
So, Cleveland coach Mike Pettine...are you satisfied with your decision to start the rookie? 30-0? Interceptions galore? Continual taunting from Bengals players with the stupid "money gesture" of Manziel's? No chance to win?
If you're going to win a game with your defense, as Buffalo was doing, the best way to seal it is to have magical defensive end Mario Williams strip Aaron Rodgers, knock the ball into the end zone, and use the old anti-fumble-forward rule to put the ball dead in the end zone for a safety!
We were wrong to think Washngton would be able to hang with Odell Beckham Jr. and the New Jersey Giants - the Blue men won 24-13, closing our competition gap to Following Football 3, Vegas casinos, 2.
Thanks to an early safety by Tennessee's defense, the scores in the Jets/Titans game were fun to watch scroll across the screen: 5-3...8-3...11-3...11-10...and then the Jets pulled out the win with the first 16-11 score in NFL HISTORY!...and thereby ruined their chances for the first draft pick! It's a strange world...
Dallas Cowboys, take a bow! Yes, you won; yes, you now control the division, etc. But here's the thing: when you went up 21-0, all cylinders firing, that's fine...you've done that. Then Philly came back to blow past you to 24-21, and every sportswriter in America was preparing their lede: "Cowboys blow another one", etc. But you didn't. You immediately put together the most important drive of Coach Garrett's career, threw the pass to the god-like Dez Bryant, and put the game back on cruise control. That was something we DO NOT EXPECT from you, 8-8 Cowboys! But now, at 10-4 and in control of your destiny, we can expect a top finish from you! Congratulations!
PREDICTIONS for Week 15!
Here we go! After a break-even week during the last regular season week of FBS games (although, remember that to our credit, we don't just have to be on the correct side of the line - we have to be closer to the actual result than Vegas was! Much harder to do!), we strive to call the quarter finals for the FCS playoffs and Week 15 of the NFL season...
[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]
THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.
FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.
SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!
FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!
SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!
Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah!
MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.
So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...
[By the way, overall during these past five weeks since we've had the full Following Football ranking and rating system in place, we've gone 32-29 overall against Vegas' predictions, with three draws. Feelin' purdy guud 'bout thay-at!]
THURSDAY
Arizona @ St. Louis - Sagarin and FF both have Arizona winning this game (we say Cardinals by three; Sagarin ratings say 1.7); while Vegas is picking the surging Rams to win by 4.5 points. Winning team takes the point. And that winner is US! Arizona won the defensive battle 12-6, won game number 11, and proved that for this team, like other defensive powerhouses in the past (see: Ravens, Baltimore), it doesn't matter who's at quarterback.
FRIDAY
Chattanooga @ New Hampshire - we all think Chattanooga by 1-2 points. All of us were wrong - New Hampshire 35-30.
SATURDAY
Navy @ Army (actually a fairly neutral site game in Maryland) - Vegas, the Sagarin ratings, and Following Football are all picking the Naval Academy to win by 12-18 points. Navy took most of the first half to get going, so the margin of victory was only seven, 17-10. But it made for a good game!
FCS Quarterfinals - We differ with Sagarin on all of these (casinos don't set lines on FCS games)...North Dakota St over Coastal Carolina, but we say it'll be close (7 points) while the computer says it's 16.5 points NDSU's way. Cut off is halfway (below 12)...We pick Sam Houston St to beat Villanova on the road by 3; Sagarin says it's a tossup (technically, Villanova by "0.02 points"!) We'll take any SHSU victory as our point...Finally, some northwest pride: Sagarin chooses Illinois St by 8 over Eastern Washington in Cheney; we don't think they'll survive the fire-red turf and are picking EWU to win. Winner of the game or overtime, we get the point. NDSU by exactly seven! Sam Houston by exactly three! Eastern Washington by... Um, bye-bye, actually. Lost, 59-46, so that point goes to Vegas, but otherwise it's FF 3, Vegas 1!
SUNDAY
Only the games where we disagree somehow... hmmm....on most of these, we're all three pretty close (within three points)...Pittsburgh by 1-3 - by seven, 27-20...New England by 7.5 to 9 - more like 41-13, Brady!...Kansas City by 9-10 (Sagarin's a little higher), and so was reality: 31-6, KC, getting revenge for three weeks ago...Indianapolis by 7-8 - exactly right: 17-10 Colts...Baltimore by 13-14 (again, Sagarin's a bit higher on these big-spread games) Ravens by 8, 20-12...Green Bay by 5-6 - Buffalo's defense stifles GB with style, wins 21-13...Carolina by 6-7 (with Cam Newton questionable, we're surprised we still agree) - actually, TB stayed close, losing 19-17...Cincinnati/Cleveland is within a point either way (and it depends on how you count a first-time starting QB for the Browns) Cincy 30-0 over Manziel. Coaching error to start him, in our opinion...Denver by 2-4 - won by 12...Detroit by 8-9 - won by two...Seattle by 10-11 - on the nose!...Philadelphia by 3.5 to 5 - a landmark win for the Cowboys!
Two games we disagree on - we have the Giants over Washington by 3.5; Vegas says it's 7. Split the difference and say five is the tipping point - Whoops; casinos were right here; margin was eleven...and we actually think Tennessee will beat the Jets by 1; the casinos are saying New Jersey by 2. (Sagarin kinda agrees with us; Titans by "0.3"...) Winner takes the point. And that turned out to be the casinos when the Jets pulled one out of the fire with a 16-11 victory. We're all tired up! FF 3, Vegas 3! It will all depend on the Saints and Bears! Can't remember the last time we actively rooted for Chicago, but here's goes! Rah! Rah! Sis boom bah!
MONDAY
We REALLY disagree here! - The casinos argue New Orleans will win by 3; we agree with Sagarin that the Bears should be 2.5 point favorites. Winner takes the point! AARGH! Saints win. We lose, 4-3. Bah, humbug. Da Bears looked "turrible" Monday night.... Don't know what you DO about the QB situation there, with Cutler contracted through another few years.
So, in the end we have a total of seven games to wage war on - three FCS playoffs, one NFL game Thursday night, two Sunday afternoon, and one more on Monday night. Hello! My name is Inigo Montoya. You tied me on predictions last week. Prepare to die...
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Following today's Football...
As the final game of 774 regular season FBS contests gets underway, we'll follow today's Army/Navy game as well as the lower division playoff games...
Last night, New Hampshire managed to oust Chattanooga 35-30 despite being outgained by two hundred yards and outplayed for the first 2 1/2 quarters - but that's what a number one team does. Today, defenders North Dakota St overcame Coastal Carolina 39-32, in a surprisingly competitive game, and currently Sam Houston St and Villanova are waging a back and forth war - SHSU kicks a field goal, Villanova scores a TD, and now the Bearcats take the lead BACK with a TD drive of their own to lead, 34-31. UPDATE: The Wildcats were forced into trying and missing a tying 51 yard field goal; the Bearkats held on to win, 34-31.
Meanwhile, Army leads Navy 7-0, after a jailbreak blocked punt converted for a touchdown, with the Black Knights controlling the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense...until a fourth down conversion of theirs is negated by a LATE time out from the sideline, followed by a Navy stop and turnover, closely followed by a TD pass to tie the game at seven. Controversial time out changes the whole game!
UPDATE: As expected, the two Division III powerhouses are cruising to what we believe is their NINTH consecutive championship meeting! Mount Union routed previously 12-0 Wellesley 70-0 after three quarters, before the fourth string allowed three garbage time TDs. Currently, Wisconsin-Whitewater leads 14-0 early in the second quarter against 11-1 west coast power Linfield.
UPDATE: Linfield has come back to tie UW Whitewater at 14 going into the fourth quarter, and after the Naval Academy pushed out to a dominating 17-7 lead, Army's Daniel Grochkowski skimmed through a field goal from 52 to close within a TD with 1:51 to go!
UPDATE: Illinois St leads Eastern Washington 31-20, and in twelve possessions the two teams have scored on NINE of them, with EWU's initial punt, their subsequent fumble, and ISU's kneel to end the first half being the only non-scoring drives of the game so far as of the mid third quarter.
Meanwhile, Navy beat Army 17-10 for their 13th consecutive win. CBS's Allie LaForge interviewed Navy coach Ken Niumatololo after the game, and asked the coach about the key time out he called in the second quarter. Coach said, "If you asked me who told me to call that time out, you wouldn't believe me." She asked anyway, and his answer was, "The Man Upstairs." GOOD for YOU, Coach!
UPDATE: Illinois St can't be stopped! In their ten possessions AT Eastern Washington, on the freaky red field, they've gone as follows so far: FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, end of half, TD, TD,TD, TD... (To be continued.) They lead 52-27 early in the fourth. ...and at game's end, they won by the score of 59-46. In all, there were 24 possessions: 17 ended in scores (14 TDs and 3FGs), 3 EWU turnovers (fumble & 2 interceptions), two end of half kneel downs by ISU, a failed 4th down late by the winners they didn't need, and one lonely punt, just two minutes into the game. Division III update: UW-Whitewater went on to win, 20-14, over Linfield, so we get rematch number nine or so for the D3 title next weekend in Salem, VA: Mount Union v. UW-Whitewater. In D2, Minnesota St is waiting for the winner of tonight's Colorado St-Pueblo/West Georgia game to set up next Saturday's Division II title tilt.
(SO, as far as our prognostication battle goes with the professionals, Illinois St kept us from winning all four games up to this point: in fact, we hit Sam Houston by 3 and North Dakota St by 7 on the nose, and Arizona by 6 was extremely close to perfect. And...well, we really had irrational faith in the Big Sky, I guess. Three turnovers to none will do it, though. Anyway, it's 3-1 Following Football, with three NFL games left to decide the weekly winner...and we just need to be right once to win the weekend!)
Last night, New Hampshire managed to oust Chattanooga 35-30 despite being outgained by two hundred yards and outplayed for the first 2 1/2 quarters - but that's what a number one team does. Today, defenders North Dakota St overcame Coastal Carolina 39-32, in a surprisingly competitive game, and currently Sam Houston St and Villanova are waging a back and forth war - SHSU kicks a field goal, Villanova scores a TD, and now the Bearcats take the lead BACK with a TD drive of their own to lead, 34-31. UPDATE: The Wildcats were forced into trying and missing a tying 51 yard field goal; the Bearkats held on to win, 34-31.
Meanwhile, Army leads Navy 7-0, after a jailbreak blocked punt converted for a touchdown, with the Black Knights controlling the line of scrimmage on both offense and defense...until a fourth down conversion of theirs is negated by a LATE time out from the sideline, followed by a Navy stop and turnover, closely followed by a TD pass to tie the game at seven. Controversial time out changes the whole game!
UPDATE: As expected, the two Division III powerhouses are cruising to what we believe is their NINTH consecutive championship meeting! Mount Union routed previously 12-0 Wellesley 70-0 after three quarters, before the fourth string allowed three garbage time TDs. Currently, Wisconsin-Whitewater leads 14-0 early in the second quarter against 11-1 west coast power Linfield.
UPDATE: Linfield has come back to tie UW Whitewater at 14 going into the fourth quarter, and after the Naval Academy pushed out to a dominating 17-7 lead, Army's Daniel Grochkowski skimmed through a field goal from 52 to close within a TD with 1:51 to go!
UPDATE: Illinois St leads Eastern Washington 31-20, and in twelve possessions the two teams have scored on NINE of them, with EWU's initial punt, their subsequent fumble, and ISU's kneel to end the first half being the only non-scoring drives of the game so far as of the mid third quarter.
Meanwhile, Navy beat Army 17-10 for their 13th consecutive win. CBS's Allie LaForge interviewed Navy coach Ken Niumatololo after the game, and asked the coach about the key time out he called in the second quarter. Coach said, "If you asked me who told me to call that time out, you wouldn't believe me." She asked anyway, and his answer was, "The Man Upstairs." GOOD for YOU, Coach!
UPDATE: Illinois St can't be stopped! In their ten possessions AT Eastern Washington, on the freaky red field, they've gone as follows so far: FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, end of half, TD, TD,TD, TD... (To be continued.) They lead 52-27 early in the fourth. ...and at game's end, they won by the score of 59-46. In all, there were 24 possessions: 17 ended in scores (14 TDs and 3FGs), 3 EWU turnovers (fumble & 2 interceptions), two end of half kneel downs by ISU, a failed 4th down late by the winners they didn't need, and one lonely punt, just two minutes into the game. Division III update: UW-Whitewater went on to win, 20-14, over Linfield, so we get rematch number nine or so for the D3 title next weekend in Salem, VA: Mount Union v. UW-Whitewater. In D2, Minnesota St is waiting for the winner of tonight's Colorado St-Pueblo/West Georgia game to set up next Saturday's Division II title tilt.
(SO, as far as our prognostication battle goes with the professionals, Illinois St kept us from winning all four games up to this point: in fact, we hit Sam Houston by 3 and North Dakota St by 7 on the nose, and Arizona by 6 was extremely close to perfect. And...well, we really had irrational faith in the Big Sky, I guess. Three turnovers to none will do it, though. Anyway, it's 3-1 Following Football, with three NFL games left to decide the weekly winner...and we just need to be right once to win the weekend!)
Saturday, December 6, 2014
As promised, here are the final regular season FBS rankings, #1-128:
| FF rank | Team | Conf | OvRecord | CfRec |
| A1 | Oregon | pac | 12-1 | 9-1 |
| A2 | Alabama | sec | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| A3 | Florida St | acc | 13-0 | 9-0 |
| A4 | Ohio St | b10 | 12-1 | 9-0 |
| A5 | TCU | b12 | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| A6 | Baylor | b12 | 11-1 | 8-1 |
| B07 | Mississippi St | sec | 10-2 | 6-2 |
| B08 | Michigan St | b10 | 10-2 | 7-1 |
| B09 | Georgia Tech | acc | 10-3 | 6-3 |
| B10 | Ole Miss | sec | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| B11 | Kansas St | b12 | 9-3 | 7-2 |
| B12 | Auburn | sec | 8-4 | 5-3 |
| C13 | LSU | sec | 8-4 | 4-4 |
| C14 | Georgia | sec | 9-3 | 6-2 |
| C15 | Missouri | sec | 10-3 | 7-2 |
| C16 | Arizona | pac | 10-3 | 7-3 |
| C17 | UCLA | pac | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| C18 | Arizona St | pac | 9-3 | 6-3 |
| D19 | Oklahoma | b12 | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| D20 | Wisconsin | b10 | 10-3 | 7-2 |
| D21 | Clemson | acc | 9-3 | 6-2 |
| D22 | USC | pac | 8-4 | 6-3 |
| D23 | Boise St | mw | 11-2 | 8-1 |
| D24 | Minnesota | b10 | 8-4 | 5-3 |
| E25 | Nebraska | b10 | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E26 | Louisville | acc | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E27 | Texas A&M | sec | 7-5 | 3-5 |
| E28 | Arkansas | sec | 6-6 | 2-6 |
| E29 | Duke | acc | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| E30 | Colorado St | mw | 10-2 | 6-2 |
| F31 | Utah | pac | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| F32 | Stanford | pac | 7-5 | 5-4 |
| F33 | Florida | sec | 6-5 | 4-4 |
| F34 | West Virginia | b12 | 7-5 | 5-4 |
| F35 | Marshall | cusa | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| F36 | Notre Dame | ind | 7-5 | * |
| G37 | South Carolina | sec | 6-6 | 3-5 |
| G38 | Washington | pac | 8-5 | 4-5 |
| G39 | Texas | b12 | 6-6 | 5-4 |
| G40 | Cincinnati | aac | 9-3 | 7-1 |
| G41 | Miami-FL | acc | 6-6 | 3-5 |
| G42 | Iowa | b10 | 7-5 | 4-4 |
| H43 | Maryland | b10 | 7-5 | 4-4 |
| H44 | Memphis | aac | 9-3 | 7-1 |
| H45 | Boston College | acc | 7-5 | 4-4 |
| H46 | Utah St | mw | 9-4 | 6-2 |
| H47 | Northern Illinois | mac | 11-2 | 8-1 |
| H48 | Kentucky | sec | 5-7 | 2-6 |
| I49 | North Carolina St | acc | 7-5 | 3-5 |
| I50 | East Carolina | aac | 8-4 | 6-2 |
| I51 | Air Force | mw | 9-3 | 5-3 |
| I52 | Tennessee | sec | 6-6 | 3-5 |
| I53 | Central Florida | aac | 9-3 | 7-1 |
| I54 | BYU | ind | 8-4 | * |
| J55 | Penn St | b10 | 6-6 | 2-6 |
| J56 | Rutgers | b10 | 7-5 | 3-5 |
| J57 | Oklahoma St | b12 | 6-6 | 4-5 |
| J58 | North Carolina | acc | 6-6 | 4-4 |
| J59 | Pitt | acc | 6-6 | 4-4 |
| J60 | Louisiana Tech | cusa | 8-5 | 7-2 |
| K61 | California | pac | 5-7 | 3-6 |
| K62 | Oregon St | pac | 5-7 | 2-7 |
| K63 | Michigan | b10 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| K64 | Navy* | ind | 6-5* | * |
| K65 | Virginia Tech | acc | 6-6 | 3-5 |
| K66 | Nevada | mw | 7-5 | 4-4 |
| L67 | Western Kentucky | cusa | 7-5 | 4-4 |
| L68 | Western Michigan | mac | 8-4 | 6-2 |
| L69 | Georgia Southern | sun | 9-3 | 8-0 |
| L70 | Illinois | b10 | 6-6 | 3-5 |
| L71 | Texas Tech | b12 | 4-8 | 2-7 |
| L72 | Virginia | acc | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| M73 | UL-Lafayette | sun | 8-4 | 7-1 |
| M74 | Houston | aac | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| M75 | San Diego St | mw | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| M76 | Toledo | mac | 8-4 | 7-1 |
| M77 | Northwestern | b10 | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| M78 | Temple | aac | 6-6 | 4-4 |
| N79 | Arkansas St | sun | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| N80 | Rice | cusa | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| N81 | Fresno St | mw | 6-7 | 5-4 |
| N82 | Bowling Green | mac | 7-6 | 5-4 |
| N83 | Central Michigan | mac | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| N84 | UTEP | cusa | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| O85 | UAB | cusa | 6-6 | 4-4 |
| O86 | Washington St | pac | 3-9 | 2-7 |
| O87 | Texas St | sun | 7-5 | 5-3 |
| O88 | Appalachian St | sun | 7-5 | 6-2 |
| O89 | Kansas | b12 | 3-9 | 1-8 |
| O90 | Syracuse | acc | 3-9 | 1-7 |
| P91 | South Alabama | sun | 6-6 | 5-3 |
| P92 | Purdue | b10 | 4-8 | 2-6 |
| P93 | Ohio | mac | 6-6 | 4-4 |
| P94 | Middle Tennessee | cusa | 6-6 | 5-3 |
| P95 | Colorado | pac | 2-10 | 0-9 |
| P96 | Iowa St | b12 | 2-10 | 0-9 |
| Q097 | UL-Monroe | sun | 4-8 | 3-5 |
| Q098 | Ball St | mac | 5-7 | 4-4 |
| Q099 | Wyoming | mw | 4-8 | 2-6 |
| Q100 | Buffalo | mac | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| Q101 | Wake Forest | acc | 3-9 | 1-7 |
| Q102 | Indiana | b10 | 3-9 | 0-8 |
| R103 | Hawaii | mw | 4-9 | 3-5 |
| R104 | Old Dominion | cusa | 6-6 | 4-4 |
| R105 | South Florida | aac | 4-8 | 3-5 |
| R106 | New Mexico | mw | 4-8 | 2-6 |
| R107 | Vanderbilt | sec | 3-9 | 0-8 |
| R108 | FIU | cusa | 4-8 | 3-5 |
| S109 | Florida Atlantic | cusa | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| S110 | Akron | mac | 5-7 | 3-5 |
| S111 | Tulane | aac | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| S112 | Army* | ind | 4-7* | * |
| S113 | North Texas | cusa | 4-8 | 2-6 |
| S114 | Southern Miss | cusa | 3-9 | 1-7 |
| T115 | San Jose St | mw | 3-9 | 2-6 |
| T116 | UT-San Antonio | sun | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| T117 | Miami-OH | mac | 2-10 | 2-6 |
| T118 | Troy | sun | 3-9 | 3-5 |
| T119 | Tulsa | aac | 2-10 | 2-6 |
| T120 | UNLV | mw | 2-11 | 1-7 |
| U121 | Kent St | mac | 2-9 | 1-6 |
| U122 | U Massachusetts | mac | 3-9 | 3-5 |
| U123 | U Conn | aac | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| U124 | Idaho | sun | 1-10 | 1-7 |
| U125 | Eastern Michigan | mac | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| U126 | SMU | aac | 1-11 | 1-7 |
| V127 | New Mexico St | sun | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| V128 | Georgia St | sun | 1-11 | 0-8 |
A few comments, sub-playoff edition...
> This assumes a victory by Boise St over Fresno St in the MWC title game tonight (they lead 28-7 deep in the fourth quarter as we write).
> This obviously does not include the Army-Navy game, conducted on its own next Saturday in the solitude it deserves.
> Congratulations to SMU for moving out of #128 with their victory over UConn today; it leaves Georgia St, winners over a lone FCS team, as the "wooden spoon" winner.
> The big losers were previously #13-16 Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, and Wisconsin, all of whom were embarrassed this weekend.
>
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