The weekend in CFL and AFL action

Starting with the CFL, thanks to the quarterback MASH unit overflowing, we went 1-3 predicting winners and 0-4 betting on the line. Great start, FF! But we're honest when we screw up...and it was under mitigating circumstances! Check out the review of the four weekend games here - you'll see that if it wasn't for Montreal losing BOTH quarterbacks, they probably win against Ottawa...and if Edmonton doesn't lose Mike Reilly for the year, then Toronto may not win (y'know, we take that back. Trevor Harris made his second professional start for the Argos and went 24-27. They would've won regardless...)...and if Saskatchewan doesn't lose star QB Darian Durant in the game, they hold on to beat archrival Winnipeg. So, losing those games stings less than it might otherwise. GREAT Monday morning reviews of the weekend's action from Don Landry and Pat Steinberg for CFL.ca - LOTS of insight in a short read!

Regardless, there were four exciting games up north!

Week 1
Ottawa d. Montreal 20-16 (Game winning drive AND time draining drive by Ottawa!)
Calgary d. Hamilton 24-23 (Rene Paradis kicks winning FG with no time left)
Toronto d. Edmonton 26-11 (Harris dominates Reilly's replacement...)
Winnipeg d. Saskatchewan 30-26 (another game winning drive, this time Winnipeg's)

In the Australian footy league, the biggest story in Round 13 was Richmond's upset at Sydney, pulling away to win by 18 Friday night. Not only did it move the Tigers into the top 8 for the first time in a month, but it allows reigning premier Hawthorn to use their distinctive second half domination over rival Essendon (with some bad blood thrown in from the Hawks' Sam Mitchell!) to jump into the top four for the first time in two months! As those top four get the "double chance" in the playoffs, that's a critical distinction for any team. (Can we please wait to cover the details of the double chance until we reach August?)

The other four games went more or less to form: Fremantle def. Collingwood (but barely, by seven points); Adelaide waited until the fourth quarter to show their dominance over the Brisbane Lions, pulling away by 13 after trailing most of the game; the Western Bulldogs got revenge for the St. Kilda 55-point comeback on May 9, winning by 13; and Carlton proved they're starting to rise from the dead, beating still-deceased Gold Coast 103-69. (Oh, and we got five out of six right last week, missing on Richmond's upset.)

We need some betting advice...

The last game of round 13 is just about to start in Melbourne, between Carlton and Gold Coast. Both teams are sitting safely in the bottom three on the ladder, well behind everyone except Brisbane.

EVERY GAME so far this round has been closer than our ratings said they should be.

THIS GAME is predicted by our rating system as a flat footed draw.

So, who does that mean should win this game? Can it be CLOSER than a draw?

Edit: the Carlton Blues won easily, although the first half was close; Blues 103, Suns 69.

Busy weekend outside the US - part two!

As for down under, both Carlton and Melbourne supporters are still partying as we speak, after their teams not only won but won in a manner that implies that they could keep winning with some more play like that! Carlton beat Port Adelaide 110-106 in a game that last year's Power team would never have let get away. This year, though, Port Adelaide simply doesn't have the strength to put away teams, to out-work or out-run them like last year on their way to that magical 11-1 start (since which they are under .500 in the exactly-one-season time). The game was a benchmark for both teams, and spells the direction each should head for the rest of the season.

Melbourne, for their part, defeated Geelong handily, 113-89, avenging many a ghost of losses past (including one four years ago by the unholy score of 233-47) and showing an aggressive brand of footy they hadn't been playing very often; here's hoping it stays!

More conventional results for the weekend included:
Thursday: Hawthorn def. Adelaide 114-85
Friday: West Coast def. Richmond 90-70
Saturday: North Melbourne def. GWS 117-61 (with many of the Giants' key players out with injuries, expect more losses in the newest club's near future, sadly)
Saturday: Western handled Brisbane with ease, 146-74.

The last of the "bye" rounds is coming this weekend, with six teams resting and six games on the schedule - here they are, with predictions:

TH: Fremantle favored by 25 at home over Collingwood (FF thinks it should be closer than that).
FR: Sydney is favored by 24 at home against Richmond (FF thinks they win by a LOT more than 24!).
SA: Hawthorn over the distracted Essendon Dons by 44 at the MCG, say the oddsmakers (and they're right, says FF).
Adelaide is favored by 24 on the road over Brisbane (FF sees this one going almost any direction, but we'll stick with their prediction as most likely.)
Western Bulldogs over St. Kilda by 13, says CrownBet. (If they play like they did last week, FF thinks it'll be a TON more than 13!)
SU: Gold Coast at Carlton, and the Blues are favored by ten. (For the first time all season, our ratings have two teams as a flat footed TIE in this game, but Carlton's trending upward and it's hard not to pick them to win slightly. We're taking Gold Coast to cover, though, especially with Gary Ablett Jr. due to return after three months gone!)


By the way, we did some projections after round 12, pertaining to the remaining eleven rounds and how things may or may not turn out - more "probability" than actual "prediction", to be frank. Here's what we think:

Fremantle almost literally cannot fall out of the top four. We don't see them losing more than four games at most, and 18-4 guarantees a top 2-3 finish.
Sydney, West Coast, and Hawthorn are virtually guaranteed to make the final eight, and we have them as the very likely top four teams alongside Fremantle. (All should reach 16 wins, which would be the max for anyone below them.)
The seven teams which have very plausible chances for making the final eight (in descending order of probability) are Collingwood (most likely 12-16 wins), Western (the same), North Melbourne (12-15 projected wins), and Adelaide (11-15 likely wins), followed by Richmond (11-14 likely wins, although 9th would be painful for them in particular), GWS (9-14 wins, depending on how the injured returnees fare), and Geelong (8-14 wins, following the loss to Melbourne). Really, this says a five-way race for four spots, but both GWS and Geelong are in very volatile situations, and could very possibly pass several of the teams we have listed above them if things play out well for them.
Below them, we can't see any way for the other seven teams to reach the finals this year, including the two biggest disappointments: Port Adelaide (max 11 wins) and Essendon (same). We'd be willing to bet on a new coach in Essendon by season's end, as Hird's behavior gets more erratic without explanation. Below them, three teams with positive growth models: Melbourne (10 win max), St. Kilda (7 win max), and Carlton (6 win max); while the Queensland coast fights it out for the Wooden Spoon - Gold Coast and Brisbane, both of which project out at 3 1/2 wins a piece right now, with the chance to win a few more, OR to lose the rest of the games this season. (And if Rodney Eade gets another year at Gold Coast, there's something going on we don't know about yet...)

Finally, here's Pat Forde's quick year-end conference-by-conference review of high and low performers in his weekly Forde-Yard Dash through the college football scene.

From Gregg Easterbrook and "TMQ"...

As always, we urge you to read Tuesday Morning Quarterback, aka "TMQ", on ESPN.com every (let me guess!) Tuesday morning. Here are his ten "stats of the week"...

Stats Of The Week No. 1: At Lambeau Field, Aaron Rodgers is on a streak of 33 touchdown passes to zero interceptions, including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 2: Atlanta, which goes to Lambeau Field on the next "Monday Night Football," is an NFL-worst .278 -- 10-26 -- in Monday games.

Stats Of The Week No. 3: Niners possession results at home versus Seattle: Punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, end of half, field goal, interception, end of game.

Stats Of The Week No. 4: After going 453 games without a punt block for a touchdown, Minnesota did it twice in the same half versus Carolina.

Stats Of The Week No. 5: Since the start of 2013, the Chiefs are 3-7 in their division, 15-4 versus all other teams, including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 6: The 49ers are 1-3 in their division. In the three previous seasons, they were 13-5-1 including playoffs.

Stats Of The Week No. 7: The Raiders have not won on the road since Nov. 17, 2013.

Stats of the Week No. 8: Boise State is on a 91-4 run when playing on blue.

Stats Of The Week No. 9: Defensive end J.J. Watt has more touchdown receptions (three) than the entire Kansas City wide receiver corps (none).

Stats Of The Week No. 10: The 2-10 Buccaneers are alive for the first overall draft pick -- and also alive to win their division and host a playoff game.

NFL week 13 tiers

FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - weekly rankings - Nov 30
	NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
FF rank	Team	Div	OvRec	ConfRc	DvRec
A1	Green Bay Packers	N-N	9-3	6-3	4-1
A2	New England Patriots	A-E	9-3	6-2	2-1
A3	Denver Broncos	A-W	9-3	7-1	4-0
A4	Philadelphia Eagles	N-E	9-3	5-3	3-0
B5	Indianapolis Colts	A-S	8-4	6-3	4-0
B6	Seattle Seahawks	N-W	8-4	7-3	3-2
B7	Arizona Cardinals	N-W	9-3	7-2	2-1
B8	Dallas Cowboys	N-E	8-4	5-4	2-2
C10	Cincinnati Bengals	A-N	8-3-1	5-3	2-1
C11	Miami Dolphins	A-E	6-5	5-2	2-1
C12	San Diego Chargers	A-W	8-4	6-3	2-2
C9	Detroit Lions	N-N	8-4	6-2	3-0
D13	Baltimore Ravens	A-N	7-5	3-5	2-3
D14	Pittsburgh Steelers	A-N	7-5	6-3	2-2
D15	Kansas City Chiefs	A-W	7-5	5-4	1-3
D16	Houston Texans	A-S	6-6	5-3	1-1
E17	Buffalo Bills	A-E	7-5	4-5	3-2
E18	San Francisco 49ers	N-W	7-5	4-3	1-3
E19	Cleveland Browns	A-N	7-5	4-5	2-2
E20	New Orleans Saints	N-S	5-7	4-4	2-1
F21	St. Louis Rams	N-W	5-7	3-5	2-2
F22	Atlanta Falcons	N-S	5-7	5-4	4-0
F23	Minnesota Vikings	N-N	5-7	5-5	0-4
F24	Chicago Bears	N-N	5-7	4-4	2-2
G25	Carolina Panthers	N-S	3-8-1	3-6	1-2
G26	Washington Redskins	N-E	3-9	1-7	1-2
G27	New York Giants	N-E	3-9	2-7	1-3
G28	New York Jets	A-E	2-9	2-6	0-3
H29	Jacksonville Jaguars	A-S	2-10	1-7	0-3
H30	Tennessee Titans	A-S	2-10	2-7	1-3
H31	Tampa Buccaneers	N-S	2-10	1-7	0-4
H32	Oakland Raiders	A-W	1-11	1-8	1-3

An interesting decision by Nebraska...UPDATED

The University of Nebraska has announced that they're going to do it again.

A decade ago, they fired Frank Solich for the heinous crime of not being Tom Osbourne. 
Solich won nine games a year, but because it was NEBRASKA! and they weren't winning national championships, UN figured they could do better.

They were wrong.

Suffering through a pair of coaches where .500 was an accomplishment, they finally got to Bo Pellini, a Nebraska man through and through, who went 67-27 over the seven years of his tenure as head man.

Today, he is no longer Nebraska's head man.

Saying they needed to move in a new direction, AD Shawn Eichorst relieved Pellini of his duties this morning, to the universal Twitter dismay of his players as well as his "alter ego", @FauxPellini (it's a fascinating statement about media that FauxPellini has more followers than the real Bo does!):

LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT YOU ARE PAYING ME NOT TO LIVE IN LINCOLN NEBRASKA AND I AM SUPPOSED TO BE SAD

9:05 AM - 30 Nov 2014

CAN I GO BACK INTO THE STADIUM AND SAY GOODBYE ONE LAST TIME ALSO WHERE IS MY BLOWTORCH

9:10 AM - 30 Nov 2014

So, any wagers on the won-loss record of the next coach they manage to talk into the job? "Oh, by the way, we're going to fire you if you don't win the conference championship every other year and a national title or two within the next five..."

The truth, of course, is that there was much more to the firing of Pellini than 67-27. His on and off field anger issues were well known, and the leaked tape incident didn't help his credibility (which was undoubtedly the reason it WAS leaked). And he may not have lost very often, but it was the WAY those games were lost - giving up 70 in the lone conference title game, letting Melvin Gordon run for 408 in three quarters in the snow, letting McNeese almost beat them, and the sheer stupidity of the player choices in Friday's Iowa game was probably the last straw. 

We've gone on record as saying that 12-0 doesn't matter if Jamies Winston has been sheltered from the law at FSU, then wholesale firings must occur. 9-3 is no shelter from firing, either, if the external causes are sufficient.

UPDATE: Brian Hamilton asks the same questions in this article on SI.com...and says much more about what happens from here...

Time of Possession is SO IMPORTANT!

Oakland leads the Rams in t.o.p. after three quarters, holding the ball over 28 minutes compared to less than 17 for St. Louis.

St. Louis scored touchdowns on their first five possessions (you'd think that'd be rare, but it's the sixth time since Week 10), added a field goal on number six, and leads Oakland 38-0. 

So much for time of possession.

Penultimate FBS rankings, bottom 32

Tier/Rk    Team                          Con    Rec     CfRc

Q097	UL-Monroe	sun	4-8	3-5
Q098	Ball St	mac	5-7	4-4
Q099	Wyoming	mw	4-8	2-6
Q100	Buffalo	mac	5-6	3-4
Q101	Wake Forest	acc	3-9	1-7
Q102	Indiana	b10	3-9	0-8
R103	Hawaii	mw	4-9	3-5
R104	Old Dominion	cusa	6-6	4-4
R105	South Florida	aac	4-8	3-5
R106	New Mexico	mw	4-8	2-6
R107	Vanderbilt	sec	3-9	0-8
R108	FIU	cusa	4-8	3-5
S109	Florida Atlantic	cusa	3-9	2-6
S110	Akron	mac	5-7	3-5
S111	Tulane	aac	3-8	2-5
S112	Army	ind	4-7	*
S113	North Texas	cusa	4-8	2-6
S114	Southern Miss	cusa	3-9	1-7
T115	San Jose St	mw	3-9	2-6
T116	UT-San Antonio	sun	4-7	3-4
T117	Miami-OH	mac	2-10	2-6
T118	Troy	sun	3-9	3-5
T119	Tulsa	aac	2-10	2-6
T120	UNLV	mw	2-11	1-7
U121	Kent St	mac	2-9	1-6
U122	U Massachusetts	mac	3-9	3-5
U123	U Conn	aac	2-9	1-6
U124	Idaho	sun	1-10	1-7
U125	Eastern Michigan	mac	2-10	1-7
U126	New Mexico St	sun	2-10	1-7
V127	Georgia St	sun	1-11	0-8
V128	SMU	aac	0-11	0-7

FBS rankings, tiers, week 13, third quartile

K65	Virginia Tech	acc	6-6	3-5
K66	Nevada	mw	7-5	4-4
L67	Western Kentucky	cusa	7-5	4-4
L68	Western Michigan	mac	8-4	6-2
L69	Georgia Southern	sun	9-3	8-0
L70	Illinois	b10	6-6	3-5
L71	Texas Tech	b12	4-8	2-7
L72	Virginia	acc	5-7	3-5
M73	UL-Lafayette	sun	8-4	7-1
M74	Houston	aac	7-4	5-2
M75	San Diego St	mw	7-5	5-3
M76	Toledo	mac	8-4	7-1
M77	Northwestern	b10	5-7	3-5
M78	Fresno St	mw	6-6	5-3
N79	Temple	aac	5-6	3-4
N80	Arkansas St	sun	7-5	5-3
N81	Rice	cusa	7-5	5-3
N82	Bowling Green	mac	7-5	5-3
N83	Central Michigan	mac	7-5	5-3
N84	UTEP	cusa	7-5	5-3
O85	UAB	cusa	6-6	4-4
O86	Washington St	pac	3-9	2-7
O87	Texas St	sun	7-5	5-3
O88	Appalachian St	sun	7-5	6-2
O89	Kansas	b12	3-9	1-8
O90	Syracuse	acc	3-9	1-7
P91	South Alabama	sun	6-6	5-3
P92	Purdue	b10	4-8	2-6
P93	Ohio	mac	6-6	4-4
P94	Middle Tennessee	cusa	6-6	5-3
P95	Colorado	pac	2-10	0-9
P96	Iowa St	b12	2-9	0-8

FBS tiers and rankings, week 13, second quartile

Tier/Rk    Team                          Con    Rec     CfRc

F33	Florida	sec	6-5	4-4
F34	West Virginia	b12	7-5	5-4
F35	Marshall	cusa	11-1	7-1
F36	Notre Dame	ind	7-5	*
G37	South Carolina	sec	6-6	3-5
G38	Washington	pac	8-5	4-5
G39	Texas	b12	6-6	5-4
G40	Cincinnati	aac	8-3	6-1
G41	Miami-FL	acc	6-6	3-5
G42	East Carolina	aac	8-3	5-2
H43	Iowa	b10	7-5	4-4
H44	Maryland	b10	7-5	4-4
H45	Memphis	aac	9-3	7-1
H46	Boston College	acc	7-5	4-4
H47	Utah St	mw	9-4	6-2
H48	Kentucky	sec	5-7	2-6
I49	North Carolina St	acc	7-5	3-5
I50	Air Force	mw	9-3	5-3
I51	Northern Illinois	mac	10-2	7-1
I52	Tennessee	sec	6-6	3-5
I53	BYU	ind	8-4	*
I54	Penn St	b10	6-6	2-6
J55	Rutgers	b10	7-5	3-5
J56	Oklahoma St	b12	5-6	3-5
J57	North Carolina	acc	6-6	4-4
J58	Pitt	acc	6-6	4-4
J59	Louisiana Tech	cusa	8-4	7-1
J60	Central Florida	aac	8-3	6-1
K61	California	pac	5-7	3-6
K62	Oregon St	pac	5-7	2-7
K63	Michigan	b10	5-7	3-5
K64	Navy	ind	6-5	*

FBS rankings, penultimate regular season edition...top quarter

Tier/Rk    Team                          Con    Rec     CfRc

A1	Oregon	pac	11-1	8-1
A2	Alabama	sec	11-1	7-1
A3	Florida St	acc	12-0	8-0
A4	TCU	b12	10-1	7-1
A5	Ohio St	b10	11-1	8-0
A6	Baylor	b12	10-1	7-1
B07	Mississippi St	sec	10-2	6-2
B08	Michigan St	b10	10-2	7-1
B09	Georgia Tech	acc	10-2	6-2
B10	Ole Miss	sec	9-3	5-3
B11	Kansas St	b12	9-2	7-1
B12	Auburn	sec	8-4	5-3
C13	Oklahoma	b12	8-3	5-3
C14	Missouri	sec	10-2	7-1
C15	Arizona	pac	10-2	7-2
C16	Wisconsin	b10	10-2	7-1
C17	LSU	sec	8-4	4-4
C18	Georgia	sec	9-3	6-2
D19	UCLA	pac	9-3	6-3
D20	Arizona St	pac	9-3	6-3
D21	Clemson	acc	9-3	6-2
D22	USC	pac	8-4	6-3
D23	Minnesota	b10	8-4	5-3
D24	Nebraska	b10	9-3	5-3
E25	Boise St	mw	10-2	7-1
E26	Louisville	acc	9-3	5-3
E27	Texas A&M	sec	7-5	3-5
E28	Arkansas	sec	6-6	2-6
E29	Duke	acc	9-3	5-3
E30	Colorado St	mw	10-2	6-2
F31	Utah	pac	8-4	5-4
F32	Stanford	pac	7-5	5-4