As for down under, both Carlton and Melbourne supporters are still partying as we speak, after their teams not only won but won in a manner that implies that they could keep winning with some more play like that! Carlton beat Port Adelaide 110-106 in a game that last year's Power team would never have let get away. This year, though, Port Adelaide simply doesn't have the strength to put away teams, to out-work or out-run them like last year on their way to that magical 11-1 start (since which they are under .500 in the exactly-one-season time). The game was a benchmark for both teams, and spells the direction each should head for the rest of the season.
Melbourne, for their part, defeated Geelong handily, 113-89, avenging many a ghost of losses past (including one four years ago by the unholy score of 233-47) and showing an aggressive brand of footy they hadn't been playing very often; here's hoping it stays!
More conventional results for the weekend included:
Thursday: Hawthorn def. Adelaide 114-85
Friday: West Coast def. Richmond 90-70
Saturday: North Melbourne def. GWS 117-61 (with many of the Giants' key players out with injuries, expect more losses in the newest club's near future, sadly)
Saturday: Western handled Brisbane with ease, 146-74.
The last of the "bye" rounds is coming this weekend, with six teams resting and six games on the schedule - here they are, with predictions:
TH: Fremantle favored by 25 at home over Collingwood (FF thinks it should be closer than that).
FR: Sydney is favored by 24 at home against Richmond (FF thinks they win by a LOT more than 24!).
SA: Hawthorn over the distracted Essendon Dons by 44 at the MCG, say the oddsmakers (and they're right, says FF).
Adelaide is favored by 24 on the road over Brisbane (FF sees this one going almost any direction, but we'll stick with their prediction as most likely.)
Western Bulldogs over St. Kilda by 13, says CrownBet. (If they play like they did last week, FF thinks it'll be a TON more than 13!)
SU: Gold Coast at Carlton, and the Blues are favored by ten. (For the first time all season, our ratings have two teams as a flat footed TIE in this game, but Carlton's trending upward and it's hard not to pick them to win slightly. We're taking Gold Coast to cover, though, especially with Gary Ablett Jr. due to return after three months gone!)
By the way, we did some projections after round 12, pertaining to the remaining eleven rounds and how things may or may not turn out - more "probability" than actual "prediction", to be frank. Here's what we think:
Fremantle almost literally cannot fall out of the top four. We don't see them losing more than four games at most, and 18-4 guarantees a top 2-3 finish.
Sydney, West Coast, and Hawthorn are virtually guaranteed to make the final eight, and we have them as the very likely top four teams alongside Fremantle. (All should reach 16 wins, which would be the max for anyone below them.)
The seven teams which have very plausible chances for making the final eight (in descending order of probability) are Collingwood (most likely 12-16 wins), Western (the same), North Melbourne (12-15 projected wins), and Adelaide (11-15 likely wins), followed by Richmond (11-14 likely wins, although 9th would be painful for them in particular), GWS (9-14 wins, depending on how the injured returnees fare), and Geelong (8-14 wins, following the loss to Melbourne). Really, this says a five-way race for four spots, but both GWS and Geelong are in very volatile situations, and could very possibly pass several of the teams we have listed above them if things play out well for them.
Below them, we can't see any way for the other seven teams to reach the finals this year, including the two biggest disappointments: Port Adelaide (max 11 wins) and Essendon (same). We'd be willing to bet on a new coach in Essendon by season's end, as Hird's behavior gets more erratic without explanation. Below them, three teams with positive growth models: Melbourne (10 win max), St. Kilda (7 win max), and Carlton (6 win max); while the Queensland coast fights it out for the Wooden Spoon - Gold Coast and Brisbane, both of which project out at 3 1/2 wins a piece right now, with the chance to win a few more, OR to lose the rest of the games this season. (And if Rodney Eade gets another year at Gold Coast, there's something going on we don't know about yet...)
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