It's always interesting to compare what a team "should" be doing (which only means what we on the "outside" thought we knew!) with how they're actually doing, and with a third of the footy season behind us, here's a peek at the AFL ladder...
TEAM (Current record, betting odds record, FF rating predictions, original FF and Sports Fan predictions)
Fremantle 7-0 7-1 8-0 15-7 14-8
West Coast 5-2 6-2 6-2 8-14 8-14
Sydney 5-2 5-3 5-3 18-4 16-6
Adelaide 5-2 6-2 7-1 14-7-1 13-9
GWS 5-2 5-3 5-3 10-11-1 7-15
Hawthorn 4-3 8-0 8-0 19-3 19-3
Collingwood 4-3 5-3 5-3 7-15 10-12
Western 4-3 2-6 2-6 9-12-1 5-17
N. Melbourne 4-3 4-4 4-4 18-4 15-7
Richmond 3-4 5-3 6-2 12-10 11-11
Essendon 3-4 4-4 4-4 11-11 11-11
Port Adelaide 3-4 6-2 6-2 15-7 17-5
Geelong 3-4 3-5 2-6 13-9 13-9
St. Kilda 2-5 0-8 0-8 2-20 3-19
Melbourne 2-5 0-8 0-8 5-17 5-17
Brisbane 2-5 1-6-1 1-7 6-15-1 10-12
Gold Coast 1-6 2-5-1 3-5 12-10 13-9
Carlton 1-6 2-6 2-6 3-19 8-14
Evaluating "how your team is doing" isn't always as simple as looking at their record. For example, the difference between Hawthorn and Western is marked, even though both are 4-3 right now. The Hawks, according to "punters", should have won all their games so far, but only have four wins to show for their efforts so far. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs (favored this week for only the second time) "should" have only won one game so far this year, but have managed to go 4-3 (and lost to Fremantle only at the moment of climax). By that, we understand why Doggie fans are happier than boosters of the reigning champs.
But more subtle than that, look at Geelong. Given the tough games they've had so far, they're faring as well as can be expected - so 13-9 doesn't look like it's out of range yet at all. For that matter, Melbourne fans look at their record, include the fact that they're winning games they weren't expected to win, and dream of maybe sneaking up the ladder farther than their 5-17 expectation.
There is some deception here, though. Gold Coast, for example, very quickly and obviously was NOT the team we thought they'd be when they came into the season, so their game-by-game predictions are not significantly better than their record. In reverse, West Coast has the same situation: very quickly it became clear that their injuries weren't going to be the problem we'd thought going into the season.
What do we expect going forward from here? I'd be surprised if Fremantle didn't keep up in the top two or so, barring major injuries or other issues unforeseen. West Coast still has some proving to do, since their record so far reflects the weaker teams they've beaten, but their play has been impressive. The vulnerable team at 5-2 besides them is the loser of the GWS-Adelaide game Saturday, whom Hawthorn would pass with a victory at the MCG against Sydney (not a foregone conclusion at all). The vulnerable team at 4-3 is still Collingwood, whose early fixture has had its share of lumps. It's hard not to see Port Adelaide finding some better form and moving up. Richmond has already seen its easy part of the schedule, and Essendon's dealing with outside issues again, and Geelong has a puncher's chance if they've really found a way to win without speed - but I'm skeptical.
What about this weekend? The betting public and Following Football each have Geelong over Carlton Friday night (meaning 4 am here in Idaho), West Coast over St. Kilda (big), Collingwood over Gold Coast, and Fremantle at home over North Melbourne on Saturday. We agree on Hawthorn beating Sydney again in the grand final rematch, but only because it IS in the MCG, where Hawthorn calls home. The rating system disagrees with punters in the GWS/Adelaide game: it lists the Crows as 4 point favorites, but the humans are putting money on GWS and the line's getting higher and higher in their favor (11.5 points GWS's favor this morning). On Sunday, we all have Essendon over Brisbane, Western over Melbourne, and Port Adelaide having enough to make it past Richmond at home, although I'm taking the Tigers and the 20 points myself.
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