So, here we go with Friday night footy coming up at 4 am our time this coming morning...the home team, Grand Finalists last year, versus the bottom-of-the-ladder team that just fired its coach two days ago. Hard to see this being close, isn't it? And yet, Sydney/Carlton (at 60.5 points) is NOT the widest spread of the weekend! That would be Hawthorn over by the decimated Gold Coast by 62.5 Saturday afternoon, because the Hawks' pattern this year after a loss is to come back the next week and take it out on their opponent big time...and they're playing in Tasmania, where they've never lost...AND they're simply that much better than Gold Coast anyway. Pick Sydney and Hawthorn..and as ridiculous as it sounds, take the points. Hawthorn wins by MORE than 62.5 (we say 100). (Our ratings say it'll be 68 for both games, by the way.)
The rest of the weekend, though, looks much better:
Port Adelaide @ Melbourne - the Power are a much better team, favored by about 20, but they're not playing well, and Melbourne's trying to play well. We're taking Melbourne with the points to keep it close.
GWS @ Western - the two most "fun" teams of the season so far! Three weeks ago, this would have been a coin flip, best of three...of seven....of fifteen... Now, however, the Bulldogs are showing some flaws again, and the Giants have their first three-game winning streak going in their history; they're playing really well, and they've shown that going on the road to Melbourne is not a problem. Taking GWS to cover.
Essendon @ Richmond - "Dreamtime at the 'G", as they call it for some weird reason. This game is always supposed to be the highlight of the "Indigenous Round", where the AFL honors its native Australians (the "Indigenous"), of which many of the leagues stars are (Lance Franklin, Eddie Betts, Cyril Rioli, and so forth. It's a great testimony to the efforts Australia goes to in order to integrate a subjugated people, as we've essentially failed to with the Native Americans ("Indians") in this country. (Oh, and we're punting Richmond to win - bettors have it as a tossup.)
Fremantle @ Adelaide - You could have left off the opponent and made the prediction: It's almost impossible to defeat the Dockers right now. The oddsmakers have them as 20 point faves, and our ratings suggest it'll be higher than that. Freo all the way.
St. Kilda @ Brisbane - 22 of 24 writers at Real Footy - The Age (one of the major coverage sources I use - in fact, some of the player of the year tallies come from them) have this going to the home team. I disagree. The Saints are playing strong footy with a lineup that can't handle the big boys. But Brisbane is hardly a big boy any more. Saints in an upset.\
North Melbourne @ Collingwood - Here's my other upset: I'm taking the Magpies over the Kangaroos, two of the weirdest mascots (and very Australian, I must add!). Fremantle absolutely destroyed North last week, exposing a ton of problems that Collingwood will be eager to exploit. North hasn't been good against good teams this year, and despite my pre-season predictions, Collingwood's been a good team! Collingwood by a goal.
Geelong @ West Coast - This is a tough journey for any club, and so much of Geelong's roster is young now, unused to this tough place to play. Geelong will give them a good fight (and I'm taking the Cats with the points) but West Coast Eagles win the game narrowly.
(By the way, my record this season is pretty good: I've won 49 of 72 this season, ahead of 23 of the experts on The Age, ahead of 95% of the AFL Tipsters as well! My "betting record", although I refuse to actually bet on sports, is well about 50% too, sitting at 42-30.)
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