The DeflateGate report is out.

And it doesn't look good for Tom Brady. 

The NFL's report, which took four months to complete, determined that three people in the New England Patriots organization "more probably than not" knew and/or took part in the efforts to lower the pressure in the Patriots' game footballs so as to make it more to the starting quarterback's liking: equipment assistant John Jastremski, locker room attendant Jim McNally, and quarterback Tom Brady himself.

Beyond the physical data verifying that the footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC Championship game were indeed significantly below the NFL-required pressure, it also provides enough circumstantial evidence that makes it "more likely than not" that it was not only a deliberate act on the part of Jastremski and McNally (and at the very least tacitly condoned by Brady; more likely suggested by Brady), but that it was a pattern of behavior stretching back well into the regular season, based on such things as text messages between the two employees that certainly appear to confirm that they did exactly that throughout the season, specifically for Brady, who provided them with game paraphernalia as thank you's for doing so.

To clarify, Brady went to great lengths in the week following the original expose' to explain that yes, he much preferred the balls to be inflated "to the lower end of the legal range" of 12.5 to 13.5 psi, because it gives him a better grip on the ball, a better feel for it in cold weather, and allows his receivers to catch the ball more easily. To top that off, it was Brady himself who led the campaign to change the NFL policy on this very subject in 2007, creating the bizarre rule that each team should be in charge of its own footballs that it uses on offense, rather than the conventional notion that the neutral NFL would have control over the equipment used in the game. 

(By the way, if the NFL hasn't changed that policy by August's first pre-season game, they should shut the place down.)

So, yeah, Tom Brady LOVES his footballs to have pressure as low as he can get away with in the footballs he throws. 

Is there ANY way that a rational human being can conceive of a situation where an assistant equipment man and a part-time locker room attendant would contrive to illegally lower the pressure in the game balls WITHOUT THE KNOWLEDGE OR APPROVAL OF THE MAN WHO HANDLES THEM FOR A LIVING?

Interestingly, the report exonerates head coach Bill Belechick and ALL other Patriots players, coaches, and employees. The culture under Belechick has notoriously been to stretch the rules to the point of complete malleability, and sometimes beyond it (see: "Spygate", "Snowplow on the Field") to win football games. 

But this time, it isn't specifically Belechick who's at fault.
It's the win at all costs culture he created.

I understand that the commissioner has no credibility AT ALL on the subject of appropriate suspensions. (See: Rice, Ray, takes one and two.) And I understand that while this affects the validity of the very sport his job depends on, it should NOT demand a penalty as harsh as the one for the scandal in which players' very health and well-being were compromised by bonuses being given for injuring them (i.e., the New Orleans Saints' "Bountygate" scandal - do we HAVE to use the suffix -gate on EVERYTHING?). 

But the penalty seems pretty clear to me, within a range:
- Fire the two employees immediately, with a show-cause for working in the NFL for the next five-ten years. They have no reason to still be attached to the NFL.
- Whatever the Spygate draft/money penalty was, assess something between that amount again to double that amount. This is worse, but of the same magnitude.
- Tom Brady needs a significant suspension. Four to eight games seems appropriate to me - less than the season long suspension Saints head coach Sean Payton suffered, but more than a slap on the wrist. Ben Roethlisberger served six for "circumstantial evidence"-proven crimes off the field; this was less damaging to individuals but more damaging to the sanctity of the fairness of the product the NFL produces. Six games seems appropriate.
- Does it change the outcome of Super Bowl 49? Logistically, I have to say no. But it sure puts an asterisk on it in the minds of a loooooooot of people, including me.

This damages Brady's entire reputation in a way that a steroid scandal does to other players. It puts an asterisk on the 2014 season and Brady's passing numbers for a minimum of last year. Does it keep him out of the Hall of Fame? Probably not, but it's worth asking the question. Brady's interviews following the exposition of the evidence after the Colts game have been proven to be what they felt like at the time - lies, fabricated hastily and imperfectly, surrounding enough of his honesty about why he would want deflated balls to explain his actions in the case. And in particular, for a player whose good looks and aw, shucks image was crafted on his appearance of being a down-home guy who was exactly what he appeared to be, this is a whole set of nails in the coffin of that image. We will never see Tommy in that light again.

Even Bill Belechick will take a small hit - oh, sure, he was acquitted. And he was never the good ol' boy that Brady was, anyway. But it's yet another strike on the culture he created at Foxboro, that win-at-all-cost mode of operation that made the Patriots the villains of the NFL. It's one thing to be the rebels, like the Oakland Raiders were (and still would be, except that they're an afterthought as a hollow (art) shell of a team). It's quite another to be the outlaw. Expect a LOT more scrutiny, New England. Walk far away from that line, because you're going to be judged more harshly than ANYONE else in 2015, whether fair or not.

And the saddest thing is this - like Alex Rodriguez, like Barry Bonds, like Lance Armstrong - the Patriots were going to be good without all of the cheating. But their insecurity forced them into playing beyond the rules, to playing with an ace up the sleeve, because the full house they already had might not be quite good enough. 

And it cost them more than the pot. It cost them their reputations as men.