Week Six down under was almost as wild as week Two was - five legitimate upsets out of the nine games, including the youngest team beating the reigning double premiers, and the fifth largest comeback in footy history by St. Kilda, of all teams!
Let's start at the end, though: the standings (or "ladder") after 27% of the season -
1. Fremantle Dockers (6-0) - alone on top, two games clear of everyone, and even more amazing, they're also 6-0 against the spread! At some point, they'll come back to the pack.
I think.
2-7. At 4-2, it's the Sydney Swans and five pretenders to the crown, none of whom were really expected to be here: Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, West Coast, and Greater Western Sydney. They've all played well, with one or two weak games scattered, and all deserve to be here.
The question: how many of them will be able to stay up here? I say: Sydney, Western, and Adelaide for sure, but the other three all have a shot to hold on and make the top 8 for finals.
8-12. At 3-3 we find the five teams who expected to be up at or around the top of the ladder: Hawthorn (WAY ahead on percentage over the others), Port Adelaide, Essendon, Geelong, and North Melbourne. Presumably, even this early in the season, not all of these teams are going to turn it around and make finals - the question, though, is which ones WILL do it, and which ones won't? I say: Hawthorn, Port, and (if you force a choice on me) North Melbourne, by a hair over Essendon.
13-18. Right now, there are three 2-4 teams and three 1-5 teams which will be separated for draft order after September. I know, there's plenty of season left, but none of the two-win teams (Richmond, St. Kilda, and Melbourne) and certainly none of the one-win teams (Carlton, Brisbane, and the surprisingly bad Gold Coast Suns) have shown any potential of making any significant charge on the top eight. Keep in mind, however, that last year Richmond left round 14 at 3-10 and won their next nine games (including at Sydney) to sneak in as the eighth seed! After what the Saints did this weekend, anything is possible!
The games this weekend included the expected:
- North Melbourne over Richmond 109-74
- Fremantle over Essendon
- Adelaide beats Gold Coast
- Sydney over Melbourne
...the unexpected:
----Geelong found legs and ran down Collingwood 100-59, an outcome which was only predicted by about 25% of betters.
---- West Coast pulled away in the third and held on on the fourth quarters against Port - IN Adelaide!
---- A very similar situation gave Brisbane its first win, sending Carlton coach Mick Malthouse and his teams into another week of intense media scrutiny.
---- Despite the false claims that it was their best win ever (defeating the supposed "superteam", your crosstown rival Sydney Swans, to start last season is still #1!), coming from behind twice to overwhelm the two-time premiers Hawthorn by ten points.
...and the ludicrous: Western was up by 55 points after scoring the first goal of the second half. They had completely overwhelmed the Saints on all fronts, and led 70-15; the only two goals the Saints had in the first half were flukes, or it would have been 70-3. Suddenly, the Saints came to life - scoring a couple of what looked like token goals - then a couple more - continued to stop the Bulldogs from scoring - stayed aggressive, and got within two goals (12 points) at three quarter time - even after a pair of quick Western goals increased the lead to 23, St. Kilda held their composure like a champ and kept scoring, catching and passing the Doggies later on to win by seven points. It was the largest second-half comeback ever, the fifth largest ever, and kept Western from being alone in second at 5-1.
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