UPS and DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 4!

Things are looking UP if you're a fan of young quarterbacks!

This weekend saw some very positive performances from the two start 2015 draft picks, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee and Jamies Winston in Tampa Bay! Both started for their teams, both have had glowing reports for their performances and behavior in camp (when was the last negative Winston story you've heard?), and this weekend they each demonstrated their command of the new offenses they've been hired to run. Remember, these two teams were 2-14 last year, and there are STILL a ton of problems, but they look to have the possibility of strong leadership in the pocket for a while to come. (The caveat of the dangers of injury for a scampering quarterback come into play, Right, RG3?) More exciting for us was the strong performances of Johnny Manziel in Cleveland, who looks to actually be challenging for a starting position, as does EJ Manuel in Buffalo, although in his case it's to regain it. MOST exciting, if you really think about it, is the play of Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota. He went 10-14 this weekend with a TD, and his leadership of that young Viking team is remarkable. Between him and the young coach Mike Zimmer, there are some truly amazing possibilities for a team that suddenly can combine a competent defense and a good passing game with the god-like running abilities of excoriated running back Adrian Peterson, back from suspension for child abuse. (Understand. please: I'm a teacher. I have five children myself. You do not whomp a child the way Mr. Peterson did. Having said that, he has served his punishment. Welcome him back, and let the man do the job he was trained to make a living at.)

Things are looking DOWN if you're a fan of COLLINGWOOD or ESSENDON.

There are so many good stories in the AFL - the one-two western punch of Freo and West Coast; the ascendance of the young GWS and St. Kilda clubs, the strength and stability of the traditionally erratic Richmond and North Melbourne teams, the possibility of a three-peat from the amazingly talented Hawthorn Hawks, and most excitingly, the run-and-gun style of play that's made the Western Bulldogs one of the scariest teams in the league.

But there are downsides, too, and they are mostly based in Melbourne. The Carlton Football club looks destined to have the first draft choice, so pathetic was their season. But they looked like they'd be down the ladder to begin with (Following Football had them forecast for three wins in February, and we're two weeks from being proven right). Melbourne was at the bottom of the ladder for the last several years, save for the newbie teams, and for them five wins is progress.

Collingwood and Essendon, however, should have been playing finals football this year, instead of losing games by one hundred points as a regular occurrence. For Essendon, the causes are straightforward: the drug scandal of 2012-13, where the medical staff injected players with steroids and other WADA-banned substances without the players' consent, continues to haunt the team. 34 players still do not know with certainty if they might face punitive action down the road, even if they had no part in the illegal actions for which the entire Essendon hierarchy has now lost their jobs. The other cause, frankly, is the now-fired (excuse me: "retired") head coach, James Hird, an Essendon legend as a player, who may or may not have been part of the drug plans but certainly threw gasoline on the fire over the last two years with his bizarre and inexplicable actions both on and off the field. The list of problems under his watch are far too numerous to list here, but the combination of apathy, hypocrisy, and arrogance made him a sadly comical figure by the time the end mercifully arrived Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, the Bombers played with more emotion this weekend, losing by just two points to an under manned Gold Coast team that they should've run into the ground, but who under Hird they probably would've lost to in the second quarter.

As for Collingwood, their problems are only beginning. 8-3 at the midpoint for the second season in a row, they hit a rough stretch of the season where they had to play Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port, and West Coast in a row. Not all that surprisingly, they lost all four, but were competitive in all of them...until the end of the Eagles game. Then came a game against Western, and despite being favored, they let the Bulldogs beat them. Finally, they got a break (at 8-8 and no longer in the top 8) and get to play lowly Melbourne...and lost to them by 37 points. Now it's hit the fan. They somehow manage to beat bottomfeeder Carlton, by just 18, and then give top four Sydney a run before losing 87-76 in Sydney. Great, we're back on track... until this weekend, when Richmond not only beats them, but utterly obliterates them, 147-56, and the Magpies looked like they didn't want to play. At all. Geelong is probably licking their chops right now, waiting for the Pies to show up in uniform only this weekend, uninterested in competing against the Cats. 

Both teams should lose this weekend, and then a fascinating game awaits for the last match of the season, on a Sunday afternoon on September 6th: Collingwood v Essendon, with absolutely nothing on the line - probably five or six wins apiece at that moment, so far out of finals that the game was relegated to that last time slot while all the teams who'll still be playing next week are home resting by then.

An update on the NFL minicamps...

John Clayton is as knowledgeable about the inner workings of the 32 NFL teams as any human alive (although there are times when I suspect Peter King is close, and Adam Schefter does a great job, too). Many reporters are more experienced with one or two specific teams, and if that's what you need you go to the specialists - but as a generalist myself, Clayton's my man. Here is a great summary of the OTA's off ESPN.com from the man himself, including good news for Marcus Mariota and Jamies Winston fans.

And then to the specialists: here is where you'll find thirty-two "offseason grade" reports from thirty-two reporters dedicated to those teams - personally, I'd ignore the "grades", which are a click-bait device to begin with.

Oh, is the draft this week?

Lost in the NHL and NBA playoffs, the baseball season, the buildup to the Kentucky Derby (which admittedly is pretty light this year), and the Mayweather fight, there's the non-event event that is the NFL collegiate draft, held for some inscrutable reason in Chicago this year.

So - if I recall, FSU's Jamies Winston goes first to Tampa, yes? Then, what? Tennessee trades #2 to San Diego for Philip Rivers and the Chargers take Marcus Mariota? Seems the most reasonable to me - Philly isn't going to do it, Tennessee would take Rivers over a rookie any day of the week, right? And Rivers would LOVE to come home, raised in north Georgia as he was.

And after that? Who cares...Wake me up when they do something in the league...

Mariota or Winston? You decide!

The latest mock draft I saw (from Don Banks on SI.com) has Jamies Winston going with the first pick of the draft to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is perfectly viable given that coach Lovie Smith has said that he's "OK" with what they know about the FSU quarterback at this point. On the other hand, Greg Bedard of MMQB (ironically, a subsidiary of SI) is firmly convinced that it's a smoke screen, and the Bucs have locked in on Marcus Mariota, because of the Ducks' QB's connection to coach Mark Helfrich, and his connection to the new OC and QB coaches at Tampa Bay.

Which would YOU choose? If you're Tampa Bay - let's face it: you NEED a quarterback. (Currently, they have ONE on the roster, a perennial back up.) Do you take the local-ish boy with the baggage? Or the "safe bet" whose background fits the background of Dirk Koetter and Lovie Smith?

How STUPID are the combines?

Ryan O'Hanlon of Grantland nails it on the head with this "hypothetical" piece on the draft process and Oregon QB Marcus Mariota - a man who was the consensus BEST quarterback in the draft all season (you know, when they were actually playing games?), but now that we're playing with the numbers instead of watching them actually play football, it's more a Jamies Winston crowd out there. 

Let's write this down right now - February 10th, 2015: Mariota will have a better career than Winston. However you choose to define it - starts, yards, success, lack of arrests, whatever... As O'Hanlon points out, this is exactly what happened to Teddy Bridgewater last year (consensus #1 all season, fell to the bottom of the first round, was still the most successful of the rookie QBs last year) and Aaron Rodgers a few years back (same scenario, dropped to #22 and the Packers, and he turned out all right...).

About Jamies Winston...

Andrea Adelson is right. There really is only one choice he can make. Jamies Winston, quarterback and lightning rod of the Florida State Seminoles, announced today he's leaving the university to go to the NFL, certainly as a first round pick, possibly as the very first pick of the draft. 

If you're in college training to enter a particular profession, and that profession tells you after two years that you are already the best candidate for their job and they want to hire you and compensate you appropriately for that position, of course you take it. That's why you went to college - and I guarantee that's the only reason Winston went to college. This is not going to be a diatribe on the need for a college education, although for 98% of college players I'm all set to climb on that soapbox in a heartbeat.

No, the question I want to ask is this: Would YOU draft Jamies Winston, knowing what we know publicly about him?

Yes, he's talented - I heard ESPN's "Mike and Mike" arguing today he's the best pure quarterback in the draft since Andrew Luck came out of Stanford three years back, and I'll take their word for it. I'm not sure that even as "pure quarterbacks" go, I wouldn't rather have Marcus Mariota, but let's take their point as given for now.

What and who do you want your quarterback to be? He is the leader of your team. He sets the tone, not only for your offense, but for your entire team. Often, his persona is more important than that of the head coach: watching Peyton Manning in Indy, with Jim Caldwell as his coach, did you ever get the feeling that the team fed off of Caldwell? NO...it was always Peyton running the show.

Speaking of Manning, think back to when he came out of college. Like this year, with Winston and Mariota, there were two consensus "great" QBs coming into the draft: Peyton Manning, from Tennessee, and Ryan Leaf, from Washington State. Both put up numbers and videos that made you drool as a scout; the whole world knew that Indianapolis and San Diego were going to take them one-two. What was the difference between them? Peyton Manning had a reasoned head on his shoulders. At the time (and from recent evidence, probably it's still true), Leaf didn't. The result, of course - Manning is one game short of 70,000 passing yards in his career; Leaf has been out of football for over a decade after playing just 25 games in his two year career. 

Character MATTERS, most especially for a quarterback. Ndamukong Suh can have a career as a defensive lineman with a rap sheet like his; receivers can get away with murder (ooooh...sorry, Aaron Hernandez - I guess that's not literally true...). But look at the quarterbacks in the league: Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Luck, Rivers, Romo, Wilson, Kaepernick, Palmer, Smith, Ryan, Newton, Tannehill, Dalton, Flacco, Stafford... They're all upstanding citizens. The worst you can say about any of the current quarterbacks is that Jay Cutler's sullen and Ben Roethlisberger's bar habits are a little questionable. Exceptions are few and far between. Michael Vick's about the only one that comes to mind: a QB who was successful leading his team, AND had trouble with the law on a regular basis. The others who did - Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, and (we highly suspect) Johnny Manziel - didn't last long in the NFL, no matter HOW good they were in college.

We will put it in writing right now, on the day Jamies Winston was announced to be coming out for the NFL draft: he will NOT be a successful NFL quarterback. If he's starting for a team in five years, we'll be astounded. Mariota may or may not make it - NOBODY's a sure thing, no matter what they say - because of his training in a "blur offense" style that doesn't translate to NFL teams well. But we'd take him over Winston seven days a week, and twice on Sunday. (Church in the morning, games in the afternoon!)