While some will take the headline as sensationalistic ("FAVRE SAYS HE COULD STILL PLAY IN THE NFL!!!!!!), his point is an important one in this article I've linked.
Favre's point is that even now, seven years out, he could still make the throws he used to make (minus some of the length, perhaps, "but that never matters anyway"). It's the hits that drive you from the game, he says. After a while, your body simply can't recover anymore, at least not in the six-and-a-half days between games you get.
Could we protect players more? Sure.
Could we protect them without damaging the game? Not completely, no.
The NBA is looking into lengthening the time that its 82 games take place in, to allow for fewer back-to-back games, fewer debilitating road trips that coaches feel the need to sit their starters just to preserve their bodies for the remainder of the season.
But the CFL (a nine-team league) lost five quarterbacks during the first weekend of games alone, including the first AND second stringers from one team (Montreal). Did you pay to see the third string clipboard holder suffer through a topnotch defense? Neither did I.
If there was an easy solution, we'd already have it. The biggest question is this: where do we believe the line between safety and "the integrity of the game" is?
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
"Big 12 expansion is not just a possibility..."
Not that it's going to happen just yet, but here's an article from a visit with OU president David Boren, laying out the timetable (in the next ten years) for the expansion of the Big 12 back to (at least) 12 - expansion which "is not just a possibility, but an inevitability" for the long-term survival of the league.
Monday, June 29, 2015
The weekend in CFL and AFL action
Starting with the CFL, thanks to the quarterback MASH unit overflowing, we went 1-3 predicting winners and 0-4 betting on the line. Great start, FF! But we're honest when we screw up...and it was under mitigating circumstances! Check out the review of the four weekend games here - you'll see that if it wasn't for Montreal losing BOTH quarterbacks, they probably win against Ottawa...and if Edmonton doesn't lose Mike Reilly for the year, then Toronto may not win (y'know, we take that back. Trevor Harris made his second professional start for the Argos and went 24-27. They would've won regardless...)...and if Saskatchewan doesn't lose star QB Darian Durant in the game, they hold on to beat archrival Winnipeg. So, losing those games stings less than it might otherwise. GREAT Monday morning reviews of the weekend's action from Don Landry and Pat Steinberg for CFL.ca - LOTS of insight in a short read!
Regardless, there were four exciting games up north!
Week 1
Ottawa d. Montreal 20-16 (Game winning drive AND time draining drive by Ottawa!)
Calgary d. Hamilton 24-23 (Rene Paradis kicks winning FG with no time left)
Toronto d. Edmonton 26-11 (Harris dominates Reilly's replacement...)
Winnipeg d. Saskatchewan 30-26 (another game winning drive, this time Winnipeg's)
In the Australian footy league, the biggest story in Round 13 was Richmond's upset at Sydney, pulling away to win by 18 Friday night. Not only did it move the Tigers into the top 8 for the first time in a month, but it allows reigning premier Hawthorn to use their distinctive second half domination over rival Essendon (with some bad blood thrown in from the Hawks' Sam Mitchell!) to jump into the top four for the first time in two months! As those top four get the "double chance" in the playoffs, that's a critical distinction for any team. (Can we please wait to cover the details of the double chance until we reach August?)
The other four games went more or less to form: Fremantle def. Collingwood (but barely, by seven points); Adelaide waited until the fourth quarter to show their dominance over the Brisbane Lions, pulling away by 13 after trailing most of the game; the Western Bulldogs got revenge for the St. Kilda 55-point comeback on May 9, winning by 13; and Carlton proved they're starting to rise from the dead, beating still-deceased Gold Coast 103-69. (Oh, and we got five out of six right last week, missing on Richmond's upset.)
Regardless, there were four exciting games up north!
Week 1
Ottawa d. Montreal 20-16 (Game winning drive AND time draining drive by Ottawa!)
Calgary d. Hamilton 24-23 (Rene Paradis kicks winning FG with no time left)
Toronto d. Edmonton 26-11 (Harris dominates Reilly's replacement...)
Winnipeg d. Saskatchewan 30-26 (another game winning drive, this time Winnipeg's)
In the Australian footy league, the biggest story in Round 13 was Richmond's upset at Sydney, pulling away to win by 18 Friday night. Not only did it move the Tigers into the top 8 for the first time in a month, but it allows reigning premier Hawthorn to use their distinctive second half domination over rival Essendon (with some bad blood thrown in from the Hawks' Sam Mitchell!) to jump into the top four for the first time in two months! As those top four get the "double chance" in the playoffs, that's a critical distinction for any team. (Can we please wait to cover the details of the double chance until we reach August?)
The other four games went more or less to form: Fremantle def. Collingwood (but barely, by seven points); Adelaide waited until the fourth quarter to show their dominance over the Brisbane Lions, pulling away by 13 after trailing most of the game; the Western Bulldogs got revenge for the St. Kilda 55-point comeback on May 9, winning by 13; and Carlton proved they're starting to rise from the dead, beating still-deceased Gold Coast 103-69. (Oh, and we got five out of six right last week, missing on Richmond's upset.)
I may have to renege on my Gold Coast fandom...
As more and more stories emerge on the AFL's Gold Coast Suns, their alleged drug culture, the seedy "double-agent player" Karmichael Hunt (who has since gone back to rugby after a seven million dollar venture into footy over the last four years), the cocaine parties at the end-of-season gatherings, and the 1-11 disaster on the field (stretching back to superstar Gary Ablett's shoulder injury last season, the Suns are actually 2-18 over their last twenty games), including the mysterious firing of coach Guy McKenna at the end of last season...I've decided to pull my allegiance from the Suns as my club of choice when rooting from afar.
It was easy to root for the Suns... new, exciting, young and talented players, the glittering Gold Coast of Australia's touristy southeastern seaside, topped off by the decision of the greatest player in the game: Geelong's Gary Ablett, Jr., chose to make his move from the south coast of Victoria to become the "founding mentor captain" of this new, fledgling club, the seventeenth AFL member (GWS joined the following year, rescuing the Suns from a second "wooden spoon" in 2012).
And they made progress! After three-win seasons in 2011 and 2012, they moved up to 8-14 in 2013, and competitive enough (92%) to make people see the potential for this young team to make finals soon and compete for championships in the not-so-distant future. Last year, after round 9, they were in third place at 7-2, and even after a tough stretch against some top competition, they entered round 15 with an 8-6 record, ready to tackle Collingwood on an even basis for the first time.
The game was a two-faced milestone for the team.
On the negative side, Ablett was tackled and slammed to the ground in the early third quarter, damaging his shoulder to the point where he wouldn't play again the rest of the season. On the positive end, his teammates rallied (with no exchange players on the bench in the fourth quarter due to multiple injuries) and beat Collingwood heroically by five points to move to 9-6, safely in the top eight, a game clear.
Then the wheels not only fell off: they flew across the highway and wrecked three cars, flipped the car over and set it on fire.
The Suns won only one more game all season, barely beating lowly St. Kilda and losing to everyone else, to fall to twelfth at 10-12, still their best season ever. At this moment, this is where Karmichael Hunt admitted yesterday to Queensland police that he brought huge amounts of cocaine to share with his teammates at a weekend party following the Manic Monday season-ending bash.
These accusations came up months ago, as reported by Damian Barrett. and were conveniently swept under the counter. As Barrett notes in that video clip, the essence of the message (then AND now) from both the Suns administration and the AFL, was "Nothing to see here, move along, guys..." , when it seems clear to all that indeed there was and IS something to see and hear.
As a Christian, I forgive mistakes with ease, as Christ does. But what gets people in trouble with not only God but society as a whole? Hypocrisy. LIE about what you did and didn't do, and get caught lying about it, and you've joined the "Barry Bonds/Lance Armstrong/Alex Rodriguez" school of ruining your life.
That appears to be exactly what the Suns have done, are doing, and will continue to try to o for as long as they can get away with it. They've nailed a number of their players for minor drinking violations - a glass of wine with family the weekend after a game? - to bend over backwards to prove they don't have a drug culture, forgetting that the first rule of spotting a liar is to watch them exaggerate in the other direction. Now that Hunt has apparently sung to the cops about what his part in the game was, here's hoping the Suns players AND management finally come clean about this. (But I doubt this will happen.)
Meanwhile...anyone got a team to suggest? My late wife always favored Geelong, as she loved Cats. I've liked the team cultures there and at Fremantle and Hawthorn, for example, beyond their recent success on the field. When they're playing well, I love watching Sydney, Port, or Brisbane. Hmmmm.... I might need to stay neutral for the season...
It was easy to root for the Suns... new, exciting, young and talented players, the glittering Gold Coast of Australia's touristy southeastern seaside, topped off by the decision of the greatest player in the game: Geelong's Gary Ablett, Jr., chose to make his move from the south coast of Victoria to become the "founding mentor captain" of this new, fledgling club, the seventeenth AFL member (GWS joined the following year, rescuing the Suns from a second "wooden spoon" in 2012).
And they made progress! After three-win seasons in 2011 and 2012, they moved up to 8-14 in 2013, and competitive enough (92%) to make people see the potential for this young team to make finals soon and compete for championships in the not-so-distant future. Last year, after round 9, they were in third place at 7-2, and even after a tough stretch against some top competition, they entered round 15 with an 8-6 record, ready to tackle Collingwood on an even basis for the first time.
The game was a two-faced milestone for the team.
On the negative side, Ablett was tackled and slammed to the ground in the early third quarter, damaging his shoulder to the point where he wouldn't play again the rest of the season. On the positive end, his teammates rallied (with no exchange players on the bench in the fourth quarter due to multiple injuries) and beat Collingwood heroically by five points to move to 9-6, safely in the top eight, a game clear.
Then the wheels not only fell off: they flew across the highway and wrecked three cars, flipped the car over and set it on fire.
The Suns won only one more game all season, barely beating lowly St. Kilda and losing to everyone else, to fall to twelfth at 10-12, still their best season ever. At this moment, this is where Karmichael Hunt admitted yesterday to Queensland police that he brought huge amounts of cocaine to share with his teammates at a weekend party following the Manic Monday season-ending bash.
These accusations came up months ago, as reported by Damian Barrett. and were conveniently swept under the counter. As Barrett notes in that video clip, the essence of the message (then AND now) from both the Suns administration and the AFL, was "Nothing to see here, move along, guys..." , when it seems clear to all that indeed there was and IS something to see and hear.
As a Christian, I forgive mistakes with ease, as Christ does. But what gets people in trouble with not only God but society as a whole? Hypocrisy. LIE about what you did and didn't do, and get caught lying about it, and you've joined the "Barry Bonds/Lance Armstrong/Alex Rodriguez" school of ruining your life.
That appears to be exactly what the Suns have done, are doing, and will continue to try to o for as long as they can get away with it. They've nailed a number of their players for minor drinking violations - a glass of wine with family the weekend after a game? - to bend over backwards to prove they don't have a drug culture, forgetting that the first rule of spotting a liar is to watch them exaggerate in the other direction. Now that Hunt has apparently sung to the cops about what his part in the game was, here's hoping the Suns players AND management finally come clean about this. (But I doubt this will happen.)
Meanwhile...anyone got a team to suggest? My late wife always favored Geelong, as she loved Cats. I've liked the team cultures there and at Fremantle and Hawthorn, for example, beyond their recent success on the field. When they're playing well, I love watching Sydney, Port, or Brisbane. Hmmmm.... I might need to stay neutral for the season...
Saturday, June 27, 2015
We need some betting advice...
The last game of round 13 is just about to start in Melbourne, between Carlton and Gold Coast. Both teams are sitting safely in the bottom three on the ladder, well behind everyone except Brisbane.
EVERY GAME so far this round has been closer than our ratings said they should be.
THIS GAME is predicted by our rating system as a flat footed draw.
So, who does that mean should win this game? Can it be CLOSER than a draw?
Edit: the Carlton Blues won easily, although the first half was close; Blues 103, Suns 69.
EVERY GAME so far this round has been closer than our ratings said they should be.
THIS GAME is predicted by our rating system as a flat footed draw.
So, who does that mean should win this game? Can it be CLOSER than a draw?
Edit: the Carlton Blues won easily, although the first half was close; Blues 103, Suns 69.
If you can throw a football, and you have a Canadian passport, please call...
What a disasterous start to the Canadian Football season!
First of all, huge favorite Montreal loses a close game to Ottawa after losing both quarterbacks, leaving the game to a raw rookie who hadn't ever played with the offense in a game (he ran the scout team offense).
Next, the Edmonton Eskimos lost 26-11 to Toronto today in another upset when starting QB Mike Reilly left for the day, carted off the field with a leg injury.
And now, the Saskatchewan RoughRiders are trying to hang on as we speak against the lowly Winnipeg Blue Bombers after their star quarterback Darian Durant left at the end of the first half with an ankle injury he couldn't put an ounce of weight on. Fortunately for them, second stringer Kevin Glenn is a former starter himself, and that depth may allow them to end the weekend as the top Western Division team, the big survivor of Death To Quarterbacks weekend! (Tied at 23 at the moment, though...)
And if they're long term injuries - and early reports are that at least one of Montreal's is season-ending - then Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell is the MVP in waiting as the only surviving star QB!
By the way, before the weekend, here were the Grey Cup championship odds...
Calgary - 13 to 4 (3.25 - 1)
Saskatchewan - 5 to 1 (5 - 1)
Edmonton - 11 to 2 (5.5 - 1)
British Columbia - 6 to 1 (6 - 1)
Hamilton - 13 to 1 (6.5 - 1)
Montreal/Toronto - 8 to 1 each (8 - 1)
Winnipeg - 17 to 2 (8.5 - 1)
Ottawa - 20 to 1 (20 - 1)
It'll be interesting to see how they change next weekend!
First of all, huge favorite Montreal loses a close game to Ottawa after losing both quarterbacks, leaving the game to a raw rookie who hadn't ever played with the offense in a game (he ran the scout team offense).
Next, the Edmonton Eskimos lost 26-11 to Toronto today in another upset when starting QB Mike Reilly left for the day, carted off the field with a leg injury.
And now, the Saskatchewan RoughRiders are trying to hang on as we speak against the lowly Winnipeg Blue Bombers after their star quarterback Darian Durant left at the end of the first half with an ankle injury he couldn't put an ounce of weight on. Fortunately for them, second stringer Kevin Glenn is a former starter himself, and that depth may allow them to end the weekend as the top Western Division team, the big survivor of Death To Quarterbacks weekend! (Tied at 23 at the moment, though...)
And if they're long term injuries - and early reports are that at least one of Montreal's is season-ending - then Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell is the MVP in waiting as the only surviving star QB!
By the way, before the weekend, here were the Grey Cup championship odds...
Calgary - 13 to 4 (3.25 - 1)
Saskatchewan - 5 to 1 (5 - 1)
Edmonton - 11 to 2 (5.5 - 1)
British Columbia - 6 to 1 (6 - 1)
Hamilton - 13 to 1 (6.5 - 1)
Montreal/Toronto - 8 to 1 each (8 - 1)
Winnipeg - 17 to 2 (8.5 - 1)
Ottawa - 20 to 1 (20 - 1)
It'll be interesting to see how they change next weekend!
Thursday, June 25, 2015
All right, for our ONE Arena Football fan out there...
We don't want so many irons in the fire that we're going to burn ourselves, but after a scolding for ignoring the "real AFL" (ahem), we need to acknowledge the Arena folks - and talk about an exciting brand of football! High scoring, fast paced, versatile players...why, if you could just take those huddles and suits of armor away, you'd really HAVE something there! ☺️
Like futbol ("soccer"), we really can't devote the time to this brand of "AFL" as it deserves, but let's peek in at about the two-thirds point of the season (finished 13 weeks of 20):
National Conference West:
1. Arizona Rattlers 10-2 (2-1 in division)
2. Las Vegas Outlaws 4-8 (3-1)
3. Los Angeles KISS 2-10 (0-3)
National Conference Pacific:
1. *San Jose SaberCats 12-1 (4-0)
2. Spokane Shock 4-8 (1-3)
3. Portland Thunder 3-9 (1-3)
American Conference South
1. Orlando Predators 7-6 (2-1)
2. Tampa Bay Storm 6-6 (2-1)
3. Jacksonville Sharks 6-6 (1-3)
American Conference East
1. Philadelphia Soul 11-2 (3-0)
2. Cleveland Gladiators 7-6 (3-1)
3. New Orleans VooDoo 2-10 (0-5)
* clinched division title
* clinched division title
The website, one of the oldest in sports (ARENAFOOTBALL.com) thanks to the vision of a forward thinking league approaching its 28th "Arena Bowl" has lots of the expected information on it, and we'll take the time to touch on much more Arena League stuff over the summer (the ups and downs of a minor league fight for survival and how Arena manages; the famous names involved; how LA made a liar out of me; the old teams like the Rattlers and SaberCats; and the preposterous "Power Rankings", which will take longer than we have to denigrate appropriately here...). But if YOU want to know more, click away! Don't expect predictions from FF, that's all we're saying!
Now THAT'S a novel way to solve a QB controversy!
In the christening game of the Canadian Football League season, Montreal hosted last year's expansion Ottawa REDBLACK club, the only team required to CAPITALIZE its name. They were the biggest favorite of the weekend, and rightly so, with Jonathon Crompton at QB and Central Michigan alum Dan LeFevour pushing him, throwing to a loaded receiving corps against a 2-16 team.
So, the Montreal solution? Get them BOTH injured, and be forced to throw in rookie Brandon Bridge, who threw a game-breaking interception as Ottawa leads the Eastern Division at 1-0, winning 20-16. To Ottawa's credit, pinned back with four minutes to go, ran the clock out against the Alouette defense to seal the win - and they can't blame their quarterback situation for that.
The Alouette play by play man closed his broadcast tonight by asking for tweets from any interested Montreal fans who want to try out for quarterback for next week....and I think he was serious...
So, the Montreal solution? Get them BOTH injured, and be forced to throw in rookie Brandon Bridge, who threw a game-breaking interception as Ottawa leads the Eastern Division at 1-0, winning 20-16. To Ottawa's credit, pinned back with four minutes to go, ran the clock out against the Alouette defense to seal the win - and they can't blame their quarterback situation for that.
The Alouette play by play man closed his broadcast tonight by asking for tweets from any interested Montreal fans who want to try out for quarterback for next week....and I think he was serious...
Women's World Cup Soccer!
We haven't kept a close enough eye on the events in the World Cup of women's futbol, but as the round of sixteen concludes, let's review the tournament so far...
Group A saw a cluster at the top which allowed three teams through thanks to three ties with the three decisions. Canada won with five points (1-0-2), and China and the Netherlands also advanced, leaving New Zealand behind.
Group B saw 2-0-1 records from both Germany and Norway, eliminating upstarts Thailand and the Ivory Coast.
Group C was dominated by the Japanese women, who won all three matches, and Switzerland and Cameroon also advanced, eliminating Ecuador.
Group D: the United States went undefeated, going 2-0-1 with a tie against Sweden (who tied everybody - 0-0-3!), dragging Australia in as well as the Swedes. Only 0-2- Nigeria stayed behind.
Group E saw Brazil's Marta set an all-time goal scoring record, and the ladies of the beautiful sport started their redemption tour for the men's debacle by going 3-0-0 in the round-robin round. South Korea placed second with a record of 1-1-1. Spain was winless, tying only Costa Rica, who also tied the Koreans but never won a game.
Finally, Group F was led by channel neighbors France and England, followed into the knockout round by 1-1-1 Columbia. Only Mexico was sent home.
Now in the Round of Sixteen, no major surprises presented themselves:
China def. Cameroon 1-0
United States beat Columbia 2-0
Germany def. Sweden 4-1
France won over South Korea, 3-0
Australia did upset the Brazilians, 1-0. So, there goes the revenge for the men's debacle.
Japan outlasted the Netherlands, 2-1
England beat Norway 2-1.
Canada, the host country, continued on by beating Switzerland 1-0.
So, the quarterfinals begin on Friday, when Germany takes on France, and then China faces the United States (so, a replay of WW2, followed by a preview of WW3!). Winners play each other on Tuesday.
On Saturday, the other two quarters take place, with a spot in Wednesday's second semi on the line: Australia v. Japan, and England v. Canada. The finals will be next weekend - third place game on Saturday, July 4th, championship on Sunday, July 5th. No predictions from us - we don't know anywhere NEAR enough about these teams!
Group A saw a cluster at the top which allowed three teams through thanks to three ties with the three decisions. Canada won with five points (1-0-2), and China and the Netherlands also advanced, leaving New Zealand behind.
Group B saw 2-0-1 records from both Germany and Norway, eliminating upstarts Thailand and the Ivory Coast.
Group C was dominated by the Japanese women, who won all three matches, and Switzerland and Cameroon also advanced, eliminating Ecuador.
Group D: the United States went undefeated, going 2-0-1 with a tie against Sweden (who tied everybody - 0-0-3!), dragging Australia in as well as the Swedes. Only 0-2- Nigeria stayed behind.
Group E saw Brazil's Marta set an all-time goal scoring record, and the ladies of the beautiful sport started their redemption tour for the men's debacle by going 3-0-0 in the round-robin round. South Korea placed second with a record of 1-1-1. Spain was winless, tying only Costa Rica, who also tied the Koreans but never won a game.
Finally, Group F was led by channel neighbors France and England, followed into the knockout round by 1-1-1 Columbia. Only Mexico was sent home.
Now in the Round of Sixteen, no major surprises presented themselves:
China def. Cameroon 1-0
United States beat Columbia 2-0
Germany def. Sweden 4-1
France won over South Korea, 3-0
Australia did upset the Brazilians, 1-0. So, there goes the revenge for the men's debacle.
Japan outlasted the Netherlands, 2-1
England beat Norway 2-1.
Canada, the host country, continued on by beating Switzerland 1-0.
So, the quarterfinals begin on Friday, when Germany takes on France, and then China faces the United States (so, a replay of WW2, followed by a preview of WW3!). Winners play each other on Tuesday.
On Saturday, the other two quarters take place, with a spot in Wednesday's second semi on the line: Australia v. Japan, and England v. Canada. The finals will be next weekend - third place game on Saturday, July 4th, championship on Sunday, July 5th. No predictions from us - we don't know anywhere NEAR enough about these teams!
The CFL kicks off TONIGHT!
The pointy football's back in play starting tonight! Ottawa visits Montreal in game one of 81, and you can watch this one and many others on ESPN2 this year! You can also get involved in the pick'em game at cfl.ca - it's fun, free, and you can compete against us here at Following Football if you wish! (We're listed under "hesrdc", and our avatar is a sloth with sunglasses, smiling as only a sloth in sunglasses can!).
There are a bevy of great articles there on www.cfl.ca that you can choose from to preview the 2015 season - we're picking Calgary to repeat, starting with a reprise of their Grey Cup victory over likely eastern-division winners (maybe) Hamilton tomorrow night. There are previews of each division, where Landry and Nye agree with us (with reservations), highlights on each team, and more.
Remember the basic differences, Yankees - all of which make the Canadian version arguably more fun to watch...
1) The FIELD is 11o yards long (there are TWO 50-yard lines, with a C (center) line in between on 55). It's also about ten yards wider.
2) End zones are twice as deep, and the goal posts are UP FRONT, which makes for some VERY interesting pick maneuvers around it!
3) You only get THREE downs to make ten yards, so you cannot waste any plays!
4) But you can have danged near EVERYBODY in motion at the snap, even going towards the line of scrimmage. (And did I mention you have TWELVE guys on the field per team?)
5) Scoring has a twist: the rouge. Whenever you can stick the ball in the end zone (after a field goal attempt or punt, for example) without the other team being able to get it out, that's one point. So yes, in the CFL you can have those odd scores like 3-1, 7-4, and so forth!
6) Because the defensive line has to be a full yard off the ball (unlike in the US, where you have to stay just the length of the football away), QB sneaks are more successful, pass rushing is different, and all sorts of subtle line-related differences come up. (The biggest one, combined with previous rules, is the dominance of the passing game, even in cold weather.)
Personally, we here at Following Football started following the CFL when they very temporarily (over)expanded into the US, and there were teams all over BOTH countries about twenty years ago or so. (Sacramento was our team of choice.) That experiment was a financial disaster, but the CFL survived and recreated its original purpose.
There are a bevy of great articles there on www.cfl.ca that you can choose from to preview the 2015 season - we're picking Calgary to repeat, starting with a reprise of their Grey Cup victory over likely eastern-division winners (maybe) Hamilton tomorrow night. There are previews of each division, where Landry and Nye agree with us (with reservations), highlights on each team, and more.
Remember the basic differences, Yankees - all of which make the Canadian version arguably more fun to watch...
1) The FIELD is 11o yards long (there are TWO 50-yard lines, with a C (center) line in between on 55). It's also about ten yards wider.
2) End zones are twice as deep, and the goal posts are UP FRONT, which makes for some VERY interesting pick maneuvers around it!
3) You only get THREE downs to make ten yards, so you cannot waste any plays!
4) But you can have danged near EVERYBODY in motion at the snap, even going towards the line of scrimmage. (And did I mention you have TWELVE guys on the field per team?)
5) Scoring has a twist: the rouge. Whenever you can stick the ball in the end zone (after a field goal attempt or punt, for example) without the other team being able to get it out, that's one point. So yes, in the CFL you can have those odd scores like 3-1, 7-4, and so forth!
6) Because the defensive line has to be a full yard off the ball (unlike in the US, where you have to stay just the length of the football away), QB sneaks are more successful, pass rushing is different, and all sorts of subtle line-related differences come up. (The biggest one, combined with previous rules, is the dominance of the passing game, even in cold weather.)
Personally, we here at Following Football started following the CFL when they very temporarily (over)expanded into the US, and there were teams all over BOTH countries about twenty years ago or so. (Sacramento was our team of choice.) That experiment was a financial disaster, but the CFL survived and recreated its original purpose.
Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL
These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.
Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS
Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western
And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)
Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS
Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western
And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
An update on the NFL minicamps...
John Clayton is as knowledgeable about the inner workings of the 32 NFL teams as any human alive (although there are times when I suspect Peter King is close, and Adam Schefter does a great job, too). Many reporters are more experienced with one or two specific teams, and if that's what you need you go to the specialists - but as a generalist myself, Clayton's my man. Here is a great summary of the OTA's off ESPN.com from the man himself, including good news for Marcus Mariota and Jamies Winston fans.
And then to the specialists: here is where you'll find thirty-two "offseason grade" reports from thirty-two reporters dedicated to those teams - personally, I'd ignore the "grades", which are a click-bait device to begin with.
And then to the specialists: here is where you'll find thirty-two "offseason grade" reports from thirty-two reporters dedicated to those teams - personally, I'd ignore the "grades", which are a click-bait device to begin with.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
AFL Team of the Mid-Year...2015
As of round 12, we're about halfway through the "home-and-away" schedule, and both afl.com.au AND the Age have put out their mid-season Top 22's - so let's all compare notes, shall we? Following Football is also going to share where our records have each player listed in the year-long Player Of The Year voting, so we can have our own say, so nyeah! :)
Consensus first team choices:
Alex Rance (Richmond) – back (32 points, 79th place)
Michael Hurley (Essendon) – back (70, 11th)
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) – half-back (72,10th)
Dan Hannebury (Sydney) – centre (111,2nd)
Matt Priddis (West Coast) – centre (88, 4th)
David Armitage (St. Kilda) – centre (88, 4th)
Todd Goldstein (North) - ruckman (88, 4th)
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) – ruck-rover (195, 1st)
Dylan Shiel (GWS) - rover (92, 3rd)
Scott Pendlebury (Coll) – half-forward (80,7th)
Lance Franklin (Sydney) – half-forward (79, 8th)
Luke
Parker (Sydney) – half-forward (66,14th)
Mentioned on both sets of ballots:
Tom McDonald (Melbourne) – back (58,24th)
Matt Boyd (Western) – back (41, 53rd)
Jamie Elliot (Coll) – half-forward (37, 65th)
Andrew Gaff (West Coast) – centre (62, 20th)
Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle) – ruck (35, 68th)
First Team on one ballot or the other:
Heath Shaw (GWS) – back (13, dnp)
Harry Taylor (Geelong) – half-back (42, 50th)
Corey Enright (Geelong) – half-back (54, 30th)
Jarrad McVeigh (Sydney) – half-back (59, 22nd)
Bachar Houli (Richmond) – half-back (37, 65th)
Lachie Neale (Fremantle) - rover (53, 32nd)
Robbie Gray (Port Adelaide) – h-forward (69, 12th)
Top Twenty vote getters on the FF ballot NOT listed above:
Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide) - 73 points, 9th place
Dustin Martin (Richfield) - 67, 13th
Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) - 66, 14th
Bernie Vince (Melbourne) - 65, 16th
Eddie Betts (Adelaide) - 64, 17th
Jack Stevens (St. Kilda) - 64, 17th
Trent Cotchin (Richmond) - 63, 19th
It's worth remembering as you look at this list that offense always gets more accolades than defense does, and the backs and half-backs simply aren't going to get the numbers of votes overall that the ball-handlers in the middle and the scorers up front get. But to watch Alex Rance as a tagger, or Bachar Houli and Corey Enright knock away marks, or Harry Taylor clear out a contest and start the ball the other way is at least as important, maybe more so, than anything done up front. There's no denying, though, the beauty of what's going on in the middle - all of the top six vote getters at the moment sit in the Unanimous section above, and all work the center of the field: Nat Fyfe (of course), Dan Hannebury, Matt Priddis, David Armitage, Todd Goldstein, and Dylan Shiel, with numbers seven and eight unanimous half-forward selections year-in, year-out (Scott Pendlebury and Buddy Franklin).
Busy weekend outside the US - part two!
As for down under, both Carlton and Melbourne supporters are still partying as we speak, after their teams not only won but won in a manner that implies that they could keep winning with some more play like that! Carlton beat Port Adelaide 110-106 in a game that last year's Power team would never have let get away. This year, though, Port Adelaide simply doesn't have the strength to put away teams, to out-work or out-run them like last year on their way to that magical 11-1 start (since which they are under .500 in the exactly-one-season time). The game was a benchmark for both teams, and spells the direction each should head for the rest of the season.
Melbourne, for their part, defeated Geelong handily, 113-89, avenging many a ghost of losses past (including one four years ago by the unholy score of 233-47) and showing an aggressive brand of footy they hadn't been playing very often; here's hoping it stays!
More conventional results for the weekend included:
Thursday: Hawthorn def. Adelaide 114-85
Friday: West Coast def. Richmond 90-70
Saturday: North Melbourne def. GWS 117-61 (with many of the Giants' key players out with injuries, expect more losses in the newest club's near future, sadly)
Saturday: Western handled Brisbane with ease, 146-74.
The last of the "bye" rounds is coming this weekend, with six teams resting and six games on the schedule - here they are, with predictions:
TH: Fremantle favored by 25 at home over Collingwood (FF thinks it should be closer than that).
FR: Sydney is favored by 24 at home against Richmond (FF thinks they win by a LOT more than 24!).
SA: Hawthorn over the distracted Essendon Dons by 44 at the MCG, say the oddsmakers (and they're right, says FF).
Adelaide is favored by 24 on the road over Brisbane (FF sees this one going almost any direction, but we'll stick with their prediction as most likely.)
Western Bulldogs over St. Kilda by 13, says CrownBet. (If they play like they did last week, FF thinks it'll be a TON more than 13!)
SU: Gold Coast at Carlton, and the Blues are favored by ten. (For the first time all season, our ratings have two teams as a flat footed TIE in this game, but Carlton's trending upward and it's hard not to pick them to win slightly. We're taking Gold Coast to cover, though, especially with Gary Ablett Jr. due to return after three months gone!)
By the way, we did some projections after round 12, pertaining to the remaining eleven rounds and how things may or may not turn out - more "probability" than actual "prediction", to be frank. Here's what we think:
Fremantle almost literally cannot fall out of the top four. We don't see them losing more than four games at most, and 18-4 guarantees a top 2-3 finish.
Sydney, West Coast, and Hawthorn are virtually guaranteed to make the final eight, and we have them as the very likely top four teams alongside Fremantle. (All should reach 16 wins, which would be the max for anyone below them.)
The seven teams which have very plausible chances for making the final eight (in descending order of probability) are Collingwood (most likely 12-16 wins), Western (the same), North Melbourne (12-15 projected wins), and Adelaide (11-15 likely wins), followed by Richmond (11-14 likely wins, although 9th would be painful for them in particular), GWS (9-14 wins, depending on how the injured returnees fare), and Geelong (8-14 wins, following the loss to Melbourne). Really, this says a five-way race for four spots, but both GWS and Geelong are in very volatile situations, and could very possibly pass several of the teams we have listed above them if things play out well for them.
Below them, we can't see any way for the other seven teams to reach the finals this year, including the two biggest disappointments: Port Adelaide (max 11 wins) and Essendon (same). We'd be willing to bet on a new coach in Essendon by season's end, as Hird's behavior gets more erratic without explanation. Below them, three teams with positive growth models: Melbourne (10 win max), St. Kilda (7 win max), and Carlton (6 win max); while the Queensland coast fights it out for the Wooden Spoon - Gold Coast and Brisbane, both of which project out at 3 1/2 wins a piece right now, with the chance to win a few more, OR to lose the rest of the games this season. (And if Rodney Eade gets another year at Gold Coast, there's something going on we don't know about yet...)
Melbourne, for their part, defeated Geelong handily, 113-89, avenging many a ghost of losses past (including one four years ago by the unholy score of 233-47) and showing an aggressive brand of footy they hadn't been playing very often; here's hoping it stays!
More conventional results for the weekend included:
Thursday: Hawthorn def. Adelaide 114-85
Friday: West Coast def. Richmond 90-70
Saturday: North Melbourne def. GWS 117-61 (with many of the Giants' key players out with injuries, expect more losses in the newest club's near future, sadly)
Saturday: Western handled Brisbane with ease, 146-74.
The last of the "bye" rounds is coming this weekend, with six teams resting and six games on the schedule - here they are, with predictions:
TH: Fremantle favored by 25 at home over Collingwood (FF thinks it should be closer than that).
FR: Sydney is favored by 24 at home against Richmond (FF thinks they win by a LOT more than 24!).
SA: Hawthorn over the distracted Essendon Dons by 44 at the MCG, say the oddsmakers (and they're right, says FF).
Adelaide is favored by 24 on the road over Brisbane (FF sees this one going almost any direction, but we'll stick with their prediction as most likely.)
Western Bulldogs over St. Kilda by 13, says CrownBet. (If they play like they did last week, FF thinks it'll be a TON more than 13!)
SU: Gold Coast at Carlton, and the Blues are favored by ten. (For the first time all season, our ratings have two teams as a flat footed TIE in this game, but Carlton's trending upward and it's hard not to pick them to win slightly. We're taking Gold Coast to cover, though, especially with Gary Ablett Jr. due to return after three months gone!)
By the way, we did some projections after round 12, pertaining to the remaining eleven rounds and how things may or may not turn out - more "probability" than actual "prediction", to be frank. Here's what we think:
Fremantle almost literally cannot fall out of the top four. We don't see them losing more than four games at most, and 18-4 guarantees a top 2-3 finish.
Sydney, West Coast, and Hawthorn are virtually guaranteed to make the final eight, and we have them as the very likely top four teams alongside Fremantle. (All should reach 16 wins, which would be the max for anyone below them.)
The seven teams which have very plausible chances for making the final eight (in descending order of probability) are Collingwood (most likely 12-16 wins), Western (the same), North Melbourne (12-15 projected wins), and Adelaide (11-15 likely wins), followed by Richmond (11-14 likely wins, although 9th would be painful for them in particular), GWS (9-14 wins, depending on how the injured returnees fare), and Geelong (8-14 wins, following the loss to Melbourne). Really, this says a five-way race for four spots, but both GWS and Geelong are in very volatile situations, and could very possibly pass several of the teams we have listed above them if things play out well for them.
Below them, we can't see any way for the other seven teams to reach the finals this year, including the two biggest disappointments: Port Adelaide (max 11 wins) and Essendon (same). We'd be willing to bet on a new coach in Essendon by season's end, as Hird's behavior gets more erratic without explanation. Below them, three teams with positive growth models: Melbourne (10 win max), St. Kilda (7 win max), and Carlton (6 win max); while the Queensland coast fights it out for the Wooden Spoon - Gold Coast and Brisbane, both of which project out at 3 1/2 wins a piece right now, with the chance to win a few more, OR to lose the rest of the games this season. (And if Rodney Eade gets another year at Gold Coast, there's something going on we don't know about yet...)
Busy weekend outside the US - part one!
(And a belated Happy Father's Day to all my fellow dads out there! Remember: being a father means much more than genetics, much more than financial support. Be a dad, not just a father. Give your child - or children - someone they'll look up to for the rest of their lives: a role model to emulate. Never said it was easy - but it's necessary.)
The CFL is gearing up for Week One starting on Thursday night with Ottawa at Montreal - and ESPN has announced they'll be showing about twenty games this season on ESPN2! That will include the playoffs and the Grey Cup championship game! Here are our picks from Following Football ACNC for Week 1 - locate us in CFL Pick'Em and challenge our prognosticating prowess! (Probably won't be too difficult to beat us!)
Thursday: Montreal 33, Ottawa 7.
Friday: Calgary 34, Hamilton 21.
Saturday: Edmonton 31, Toronto 28.
Saturday: Saskatchewan 35, Winnipeg 17.
CFL.ca's Nissan Titan Power Rankings to start the season are pretty close to ours at Following Football... here are both for comparison:
1. Calgary (we have them 1st as well, rated at 48.9)
2. Hamilton (we've got them 5th, barely, 29.9, as the center teams are bunched.)
3. Edmonton (2nd on our list at 38.1; second best record in '14, two big wins preseason)
4. Saskatchewan (agree with 4th, at 30.0)
5. Montreal (7th on our list but we could see them rising)
6. Toronto (optimistic - we have them 6th for now but falling as the season progresses...)
7. BC Lions (they're more concerned with BC's injuries than we are - we have them 3rd!)
8. Winnipeg (agree - 20.6 rating, not a promising line on either side of the ball)
9. Ottawa (easiest pick of the bunch - last at 10.1)
So, the two big differences right now are their bullishness on Hamilton and ours on BC. We'll just see who's right over the next few weeks! Also, check out Pat Steinberg's weekly Monday Morning Quarterback column (Canadian style - not the Peter King version, although he's at least as brilliant a writer!).
The CFL is gearing up for Week One starting on Thursday night with Ottawa at Montreal - and ESPN has announced they'll be showing about twenty games this season on ESPN2! That will include the playoffs and the Grey Cup championship game! Here are our picks from Following Football ACNC for Week 1 - locate us in CFL Pick'Em and challenge our prognosticating prowess! (Probably won't be too difficult to beat us!)
Thursday: Montreal 33, Ottawa 7.
Friday: Calgary 34, Hamilton 21.
Saturday: Edmonton 31, Toronto 28.
Saturday: Saskatchewan 35, Winnipeg 17.
CFL.ca's Nissan Titan Power Rankings to start the season are pretty close to ours at Following Football... here are both for comparison:
1. Calgary (we have them 1st as well, rated at 48.9)
2. Hamilton (we've got them 5th, barely, 29.9, as the center teams are bunched.)
3. Edmonton (2nd on our list at 38.1; second best record in '14, two big wins preseason)
4. Saskatchewan (agree with 4th, at 30.0)
5. Montreal (7th on our list but we could see them rising)
6. Toronto (optimistic - we have them 6th for now but falling as the season progresses...)
7. BC Lions (they're more concerned with BC's injuries than we are - we have them 3rd!)
8. Winnipeg (agree - 20.6 rating, not a promising line on either side of the ball)
9. Ottawa (easiest pick of the bunch - last at 10.1)
So, the two big differences right now are their bullishness on Hamilton and ours on BC. We'll just see who's right over the next few weeks! Also, check out Pat Steinberg's weekly Monday Morning Quarterback column (Canadian style - not the Peter King version, although he's at least as brilliant a writer!).
Friday, June 19, 2015
As the pre-season ends up north...
...and the end of a few CFL careers come with the final cutdown tomorrow, we take a look at the final exhibition games and the starting Following Football ratings for the CFL:
- Troubled Toronto handles rival Montreal 30-10, to my surprise (the Argonauts don't play in their Rogers Centre home until August, including having to play a "home game" in Ft. McMurray next weekend. Their ownership is changing and the current owner's not likely to spend another dime on the Argos this year...)
-Hamilton over Winnipeg 26-15, posting a 2-0 preseason after two easy games against the two weakest teams after playing Grey Cup last November.
-Edmonton traveled to Vancouver and beat the BC Lions 18-13. They also went 2-0, but defeated two good teams in Saskatchewan and the Lions.
-Speaking of Saskatchewan, their broadcast went live on line tonight, so we watched them compete marvelously against the defenders from Calgary, who showed their class by coming back from being down all game to score the last two TDs and win 37-29.
Calgary certainly deserves the highest rating going into the 2015 season, which starts on Thursday night. Here's our picks for week one, with the FF Elo-style ratings in parentheses...
Thursday, Montreal (29.6) at Ottawa (10.1) - M should win 33-7.
Friday, Hamilton (29.9) at Calgary (48.9) - C should win, 34-21.
Saturday, Edmonton (38.1) "at" Toronto (29.9) - E in a close one, 31-28.
Saturday, Winnipeg (20.1) at Saskatchewan (30.0) - we see S big, 35-17.
(And in an odd-team league, it's the BC Lions (32.9) with the bye to start the season.)
If you're interested in joining me in the CFL Pick'em contest, go to cfl.ca and register before Thursday night! It's free, it's quick (only four games to pick each week), and it'll give you some insight into the Canadian game! Twelve men flying in all directions, three downs, big field - it's a blast!
- Troubled Toronto handles rival Montreal 30-10, to my surprise (the Argonauts don't play in their Rogers Centre home until August, including having to play a "home game" in Ft. McMurray next weekend. Their ownership is changing and the current owner's not likely to spend another dime on the Argos this year...)
-Hamilton over Winnipeg 26-15, posting a 2-0 preseason after two easy games against the two weakest teams after playing Grey Cup last November.
-Edmonton traveled to Vancouver and beat the BC Lions 18-13. They also went 2-0, but defeated two good teams in Saskatchewan and the Lions.
-Speaking of Saskatchewan, their broadcast went live on line tonight, so we watched them compete marvelously against the defenders from Calgary, who showed their class by coming back from being down all game to score the last two TDs and win 37-29.
Calgary certainly deserves the highest rating going into the 2015 season, which starts on Thursday night. Here's our picks for week one, with the FF Elo-style ratings in parentheses...
Thursday, Montreal (29.6) at Ottawa (10.1) - M should win 33-7.
Friday, Hamilton (29.9) at Calgary (48.9) - C should win, 34-21.
Saturday, Edmonton (38.1) "at" Toronto (29.9) - E in a close one, 31-28.
Saturday, Winnipeg (20.1) at Saskatchewan (30.0) - we see S big, 35-17.
(And in an odd-team league, it's the BC Lions (32.9) with the bye to start the season.)
If you're interested in joining me in the CFL Pick'em contest, go to cfl.ca and register before Thursday night! It's free, it's quick (only four games to pick each week), and it'll give you some insight into the Canadian game! Twelve men flying in all directions, three downs, big field - it's a blast!
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Here's a couple of pieces from Australia on the best the AFL has to offer in 2015
The Age's Rohan Connelly, a superb expert on footy, has his "mid-season All-Australian team" out, and I have to say - it's hard to argue with anyone he's selected:
Back line:
Midfield:
Forwards:
And his four off-the-bench?
Hard to argue with a single name. Here's a great piece from www.afl.com.au on the "firestarters" on each club - who it is that the club leans on for the spark it needs to succeed, especially when it's running low.
And finally, a small promotion for our own list of outstanding players this season, most of whom are pictured above, after ten rounds:
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) - 173 points
Dan Hannebury (Sydney) - 111 points
David Armitage (St Kilda) - 88 points
Dylan Shiel (GWS) - 82 points
Scott Pendelbury (Collingwood) - 75 points
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) - 72 points
Matt Priddis (West Coast) - 71 points
Michael Hurley (Essendon) - 70 points
Lance Franklin (Sydney) - 68 points/
Back line:
Midfield:
Forwards:
And his four off-the-bench?
Hard to argue with a single name. Here's a great piece from www.afl.com.au on the "firestarters" on each club - who it is that the club leans on for the spark it needs to succeed, especially when it's running low.
And finally, a small promotion for our own list of outstanding players this season, most of whom are pictured above, after ten rounds:
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) - 173 points
Dan Hannebury (Sydney) - 111 points
David Armitage (St Kilda) - 88 points
Dylan Shiel (GWS) - 82 points
Scott Pendelbury (Collingwood) - 75 points
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) - 72 points
Matt Priddis (West Coast) - 71 points
Michael Hurley (Essendon) - 70 points
Lance Franklin (Sydney) - 68 points/
NFL update....
Can't forget about the number one moneymaker in the country now, can we? Here's an interesting piece from Fansided detailing what (they think) it will take for each of the 32 NFL teams to make the playoffs this coming 2015 season. For some, not such a chore (New England: show up); for others, it's a bit tougher (Jacksonville: pray for Bortles' deification).
We will hold off on making any NFL predictions until at least August, but we're planning on leading the way with our prognostications again this fall with input on several fronts:
--- Both Sagarin and 538's ELO rating systems are available to us this season from day one.
--- We'll be starting as we always do: no 1st, 2nd, 3rd place stuff until we're far enough into the season to have a decent and trustworthy representation. This has given us an advantage in the past: no pre-season ranking "inertia" to overcome! What you'll get after week one from us will be (at most!) dividing the teams into three tiers (it might just be two), with the eventual goal of splitting into the eight that we finish the year with, at which point we can start dividing those down further as the teams begin to separate more. (The same will be true with college football, on a larger scale of course!)
--- Last year, our predictions were far ahead of Vegas' record for accuracy! In NFL games in particular, we went 10-2, 6-7-1, and 10-3 in our last three weeks of the season, and managed to "outsmart" the Vegas odds more often than not in all but one week of the last half of the season (when we started keeping tabs on these things)! Similar results occurred in the college ranks, for that matter, and we won the Bowl Games Prognostication Showdown last winter, outperforming the Vegas oddsmakers, ESPN's experts, and the Sagarin computers in predicting the winners of the 39 bowl games (we went 23-16, three to five games ahead of the competition!)
--- And if cross-sport expertise is applicable...we're sitting in the top 1% of tipsters in the Australian Rules Football prediction game (out of 175.000 members!).
We will hold off on making any NFL predictions until at least August, but we're planning on leading the way with our prognostications again this fall with input on several fronts:
--- Both Sagarin and 538's ELO rating systems are available to us this season from day one.
--- We'll be starting as we always do: no 1st, 2nd, 3rd place stuff until we're far enough into the season to have a decent and trustworthy representation. This has given us an advantage in the past: no pre-season ranking "inertia" to overcome! What you'll get after week one from us will be (at most!) dividing the teams into three tiers (it might just be two), with the eventual goal of splitting into the eight that we finish the year with, at which point we can start dividing those down further as the teams begin to separate more. (The same will be true with college football, on a larger scale of course!)
--- Last year, our predictions were far ahead of Vegas' record for accuracy! In NFL games in particular, we went 10-2, 6-7-1, and 10-3 in our last three weeks of the season, and managed to "outsmart" the Vegas odds more often than not in all but one week of the last half of the season (when we started keeping tabs on these things)! Similar results occurred in the college ranks, for that matter, and we won the Bowl Games Prognostication Showdown last winter, outperforming the Vegas oddsmakers, ESPN's experts, and the Sagarin computers in predicting the winners of the 39 bowl games (we went 23-16, three to five games ahead of the competition!)
--- And if cross-sport expertise is applicable...we're sitting in the top 1% of tipsters in the Australian Rules Football prediction game (out of 175.000 members!).
Australian update...
As for the AFL, hitting its midseason lull for the three bye weeks to give players a chance to recover a little bit (what LeBron James wouldn't have done for a bye week to recover during the NBA finals!), the league-leading Fremantle Dockers have finally hit a bit of a lull themselves, first losing to Richmond in week 10 and then barely hanging on to beat last-place Gold Coast by seven points this last Saturday!
This must give their pursuers some hope for a change - Sydney sits just one game behind at 9-2, riding a five-game win streak; West Coast and Collingwood both proved their form last week with decisive victories against top-level teams and sit at 8-3, two back; and the five spots filling out finals (and the dreaded ninth place) all hold teams with positive spin and records above .500 - GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond, and the resurgent Geelong Cats, reaching 6-5 following a great victory over Port Adelaide last weekend.
Slots 10-12 hold reasonably close contenders Port, Western, and North Melbourne, all with five wins after eleven rounds. Below that are two 4-7 teams moving in opposite directions: rising St. Kilda and plummeting Essendon. The bottom four figure to stay that way, although all show signs of life - Melbourne at 3-8, Brisbane at 2-8, and the one-win teams Gold Coast and Carlton contending for the wooden spoon.
Here are our Following Football ELO-style ratings as of today, June 17th, 2015:
Hawthorn (84.1) - Sydney (76.5) - West Coast (76.0) - Fremantle (70.4)
Geelong (64.6) - Richmond (59.9) - Port Adelaide (58.6) - Collingwood (57.6)
North Melbourne (55.6) - Adelaide (55.5) - Western Bulldogs (43.8)
GWS (43.6) - Essendon (42.7) - Gold Coast (27.8) - Melbourne (25.4)
St. Kilda (21.3) - Brisbane Lions (18.8) - Carlton (17.9).
Curiously, although Fremantle is 10-1, their rating is scarcely a point above their starting level of 69.1! Meanwhile, for example, 8-3 West Coast has jumped over seventeen points from their starting posture of 58.6! Hawthorn's bumpy season has not moved their rating significantly (less than a point from their initial score), and Sydney is exactly where it started. The biggest gainer is actually Collingwood (up 21.6 points), while the two 1-10 teams have both been down as many as 23 points before coming back up slightly to their current positions (Gold Coast down 19 from its opening; Carlton 20).
Predictions for Week 12: This week provides some confident choices for the Following Football punters, who have six games to pick again this week: Hawthorn big over Adelaide; West Coast "upsetting" Richmond (can't believe Richmond's favored!); Port Adelaide over Carlton big; North Melbourne defeating GWS, who lost two important players last weekend for the season; Western over Brisbane with ease, and Geelong annihilating Melbourne. Inside the AFL's own "tipping" competition, the FF predictors are in the top 1% on all fronts, inside the top 1600 of a 175,000 member contest! Which means: trust us! We know what we're doing! (We went five out of six last week, nailing one upset but missing our pick on another one.)
This must give their pursuers some hope for a change - Sydney sits just one game behind at 9-2, riding a five-game win streak; West Coast and Collingwood both proved their form last week with decisive victories against top-level teams and sit at 8-3, two back; and the five spots filling out finals (and the dreaded ninth place) all hold teams with positive spin and records above .500 - GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Richmond, and the resurgent Geelong Cats, reaching 6-5 following a great victory over Port Adelaide last weekend.
Slots 10-12 hold reasonably close contenders Port, Western, and North Melbourne, all with five wins after eleven rounds. Below that are two 4-7 teams moving in opposite directions: rising St. Kilda and plummeting Essendon. The bottom four figure to stay that way, although all show signs of life - Melbourne at 3-8, Brisbane at 2-8, and the one-win teams Gold Coast and Carlton contending for the wooden spoon.
Here are our Following Football ELO-style ratings as of today, June 17th, 2015:
Hawthorn (84.1) - Sydney (76.5) - West Coast (76.0) - Fremantle (70.4)
Geelong (64.6) - Richmond (59.9) - Port Adelaide (58.6) - Collingwood (57.6)
North Melbourne (55.6) - Adelaide (55.5) - Western Bulldogs (43.8)
GWS (43.6) - Essendon (42.7) - Gold Coast (27.8) - Melbourne (25.4)
St. Kilda (21.3) - Brisbane Lions (18.8) - Carlton (17.9).
Curiously, although Fremantle is 10-1, their rating is scarcely a point above their starting level of 69.1! Meanwhile, for example, 8-3 West Coast has jumped over seventeen points from their starting posture of 58.6! Hawthorn's bumpy season has not moved their rating significantly (less than a point from their initial score), and Sydney is exactly where it started. The biggest gainer is actually Collingwood (up 21.6 points), while the two 1-10 teams have both been down as many as 23 points before coming back up slightly to their current positions (Gold Coast down 19 from its opening; Carlton 20).
Predictions for Week 12: This week provides some confident choices for the Following Football punters, who have six games to pick again this week: Hawthorn big over Adelaide; West Coast "upsetting" Richmond (can't believe Richmond's favored!); Port Adelaide over Carlton big; North Melbourne defeating GWS, who lost two important players last weekend for the season; Western over Brisbane with ease, and Geelong annihilating Melbourne. Inside the AFL's own "tipping" competition, the FF predictors are in the top 1% on all fronts, inside the top 1600 of a 175,000 member contest! Which means: trust us! We know what we're doing! (We went five out of six last week, nailing one upset but missing our pick on another one.)
Canadian update...
A great place to look for quick hitters on each of the teams in the CFL is the "Checking Down" column that runs on the cfl.ca page every week...This week, it includes some interesting pieces on the Michael Sam situation: Sam has left the Montreal Alouette camp amidst speculation that he's getting harassed - ironically, not about his homosexuality but for appearing on Dancing With The Stars over the off-season (especially instead of training to make a roster).
Also of interest last week was the Edmonton/Saskatchewan game held up in Fort McMurray, Alberta, opening the brand new stadium there, Shell Place (and it's gorgeous! Take a look!) To give you Yankees some perspective on life in Canada (or "Canadia", as my son keeps mistakenly referring to it), this is a thing there: The game was the most northerly CFL game ever played. Remember, in Canada, you're already pretty far north - everything is above the northern borders of the US, which means north of Minnesota, North Dakota, Maine, Ohio, etc... which means it can get COLD there. (Hockey. Remember?) And the farther north you go... Yeah, you got the picture now. Fort McMurray isn't ridiculously far, but it is 250 miles north of Edmonton, already above Canada's backbone Highway 1 by several hundred miles itself. They'll be playing a regular season game there in July, and Aerosmith hits the stage in July as well. The design of the stadium is brilliant: the stage sits at one end of the football field, waiting for seating to go in when they need it!
Scores? You want pre-season scores? Well, besides Edmonton defeating Saskatchewan 31-24 up north, Montreal knocked off Ottawa 26-9, defending champ Calgary easily handled British Columbia 20-6, and Winnipeg upset Toronto by a touchdown, 34-27. This Thursday and Friday hold the last four pre-season games before the final roster cuts and the start of the season next Thursday night, on the 25th of June. Following Football has its ELO-style rating system in place and will finalize ratings and be providing you with the opportunity for predictions leading into each week of the Canadian Football League season this year!
Friday, June 12, 2015
On betting and gambling...
Proud to brag (against my Christian beliefs) that despite Port Adelaide's favored status, my Geelong pick held up, and they won by 23 in the Adelaide Oval Friday night, Aussie time.
The correct pick pushed me up into the top 1/2 of 1% in the various AFL "tipster" contests at afl.com.au - so let that be evidence that you can trust my prediction advice! The CFL site has a similar contest, so I thought I'd try it out this season as well, although my Aussie knowledge is definitely superior to my Canadian! Can't hurt to try, since they're all free to enter.
It's a far cry from risking my own money on someone else's athletic prowess and flukes of injuries and the whims and follies of men in the twenties. If you're going to gamble your hard-earned coinage, do it on your OWN abilities, or at the very worst, on something with some statistical basis for your projection.
And if you must gamble your money, KNOW WHEN TO STOP. Set a limit that you can afford, and stick to it. If you can't stick to it, NEVER GAMBLE. When someone with an addictive personality gets into the "I can win it back" mode, they're doomed. If, on the other hand, you enjoy gambling (whether it's sports betting or slot machines or poker or the lottery) as much as, say, a nice dinner out? Take forty dollars (or whatever the evening is worth to you), go enjoy yourself...but when that money is gone, YOU'RE DONE. If you can't stop then, DON'T START! No "just one more"s, no "but I was just about to get hot!"....
When it comes to sports, there are so many free competitions on line you can compete in - get the thrill of the bet without the painful side effects. You have no excuse to hamper your life and that of your family by throwing money down the toilet with nothing to show for it but regret.
The correct pick pushed me up into the top 1/2 of 1% in the various AFL "tipster" contests at afl.com.au - so let that be evidence that you can trust my prediction advice! The CFL site has a similar contest, so I thought I'd try it out this season as well, although my Aussie knowledge is definitely superior to my Canadian! Can't hurt to try, since they're all free to enter.
It's a far cry from risking my own money on someone else's athletic prowess and flukes of injuries and the whims and follies of men in the twenties. If you're going to gamble your hard-earned coinage, do it on your OWN abilities, or at the very worst, on something with some statistical basis for your projection.
And if you must gamble your money, KNOW WHEN TO STOP. Set a limit that you can afford, and stick to it. If you can't stick to it, NEVER GAMBLE. When someone with an addictive personality gets into the "I can win it back" mode, they're doomed. If, on the other hand, you enjoy gambling (whether it's sports betting or slot machines or poker or the lottery) as much as, say, a nice dinner out? Take forty dollars (or whatever the evening is worth to you), go enjoy yourself...but when that money is gone, YOU'RE DONE. If you can't stop then, DON'T START! No "just one more"s, no "but I was just about to get hot!"....
When it comes to sports, there are so many free competitions on line you can compete in - get the thrill of the bet without the painful side effects. You have no excuse to hamper your life and that of your family by throwing money down the toilet with nothing to show for it but regret.
Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Canada starts its pre-season! And, about the NBA Finals...
With a pair of games Monday and Tuesday evenings, the CFL has started its pre-season in preparation for opening night on June 25th! The Hamilton Tiger-Cats defeated the second-year Ottawa Redblacks (I refuse to write REDBLACKS every time this year - I felt like I was yelling at my readers!) 37-10 on Monday, and last night the Winnipeg Blue Bombers upset the Toronto Argonauts by a touchdown, 34-27, on the strength of too many Argo turnovers. I've noticed that the CFL, having only two pre-season games, uses its starters more than its neighbors to the south - listening to the first half last night, there was a real sense of playing a real game of football, not a uniformed scrimmage, although LOTS of men got into the action.
Of course, I only listened to the first half of the Canadian game because there was a MUCH more important event going on just south of Toronto a few hundred miles! I know the ball's the wrong shape (and the court's wooden and much more indoors), but you've GOT to admire the work of LeBron James and what's left of the Cleveland Cavaliers, already distant underdogs to the Golden State Warriors before superstar Kyrie Irving went down...remembering the loss of Kevin Love in the first round of the playoffs...and of Anderson Varejao in December for the season...and then to have Iman Shumpert re-injure his shoulder in the first quarter last night and have it mostly useless the rest of the night...and yet somehow, they're leading the 67-win Warriors two games to one after winning last night! Normally, I'd be a Warrior fan - I grew up in NorCal, and remember the last Warriors title, forty years ago; they play a beautiful brand of basketball, and I have as much admiration for them as any team I've watched play. But if the Cavaliers somehow won this series? No team with at least 65 wins has ever failed to win the Finals, let alone to a team fourteen games below them, let alone to a team missing its 2nd and 3rd best players, let alone to a team whose now-second best player is an undrafted Aussie from St. Mary's University who looks like an accountant and has to show his ID to get into the locker rooms!!
Essentially, LeBron James is willing a team of castoffs and second stringers to a title riding his coattails. On Jimmy Kimmel's show last night, he referred to the series as being "tied up 1-1 between Golden State and LeBron James", and he's not that far from the truth. Matthew Dellavadova has been literally unbelievable, JR Smith and James Jones have played over their heads, Timofey Mosgov and Tristan Thompson have had their coming-out parties in this playoff series...but it's all because of The Man. It's fascinating to hear the distinction the announcers give Curry and James: Curry is "the MVP", but LeBron is "the best player in the world".
Yep. That's about the size of it. And if he wins this series more or less by himself, to bring that mystical title to starving Cleveland?
There would be no words for it. Unprecedented. And he's halfway there.
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
Week 10 in footy - Freo goes DOWN!
Yes, Fremantle suffered its first defeat, oddly enough at the hands of middling Richmond and in dominating fashion, much worse than the 97-70 score indicates. Richmond scored the first five goals and never looked back, dominating the game from the opening horn. Strangely, ruckman Aaron Sandilands set another record, for positive clearances, and Richmond managed a mere 36 entries into the forward 50...yet Fremantle suffered a 27-point loss!
Saturday's scores included a narrow Carlton loss to Adelaide, 99-90, that saw the dramatic and traumatic end to a legend's career - Chris Judd, twice a Brownlow medalist as best in the league, already in an "extra" season extending his career into 2015, blew out an ACL in the first quarter that put him on a 10-12 month rehab track that made immediate retirement a no-brainer. (Recall this post to understand what a revered player Judd is.) Other games included Sydney coasting over Gold Coast 93-41 (they never bothered getting out of first gear), Geelong holding Essendon goal-less in the first half en route to winning 122-53, and Port Adelaide surprising Western 100-62.
GWS eased over Brisbane by 30, 97-67, and Hawthorn glided past St. Kilda by a score of 132-69 on Sunday, but the big game was the Kangaroo smackdown of West Coast, pulling away to win 85-75 at the end in a wind-blown game in Tasmania. The announcers referred to it as a "four or five goal wind", meaning they expected the team playing towards the wind to score that much more - and in the first half, they weren't disappointed. But to the surprise of all in the last, North Melbourne managed to score just as many as the Eagles did to hold on for a victory.
The very Commonwealth holiday Monday matchup between Collingwood and Melbourne on the Queen's (official) Birthday went the way of the Magpies (as it seemingly always does) by 25 points, 110-85, although the Demons were tied close to three-quarter time!
This coming week is the first of three "bye" weeks, with just six games each week while a third of the teams take a hiatus to lick their wounds (and if you're Gold Coast, find enough healthy players to field a team next week). Here's the line-up:
Geelong/Port Adelaide Friday night (great game potentially! I'll take Geelong...)
Fremantle/Gold Coast Saturday afternoon (on the other hand...)
Essendon/West Coast Saturday twilight (hard to imagine the Dons winning in Perth)
Sydney/North Melbourne Saturday night (should be the Swans despite NMK's last game)
GWS/Collingwood Sunday afternoon (best game of the round - flip a coin! I'll take the Pies)
Melbourne/St. Kilda Sunday twilight (should be close - I'm thinking the Saints...)
Saturday's scores included a narrow Carlton loss to Adelaide, 99-90, that saw the dramatic and traumatic end to a legend's career - Chris Judd, twice a Brownlow medalist as best in the league, already in an "extra" season extending his career into 2015, blew out an ACL in the first quarter that put him on a 10-12 month rehab track that made immediate retirement a no-brainer. (Recall this post to understand what a revered player Judd is.) Other games included Sydney coasting over Gold Coast 93-41 (they never bothered getting out of first gear), Geelong holding Essendon goal-less in the first half en route to winning 122-53, and Port Adelaide surprising Western 100-62.
GWS eased over Brisbane by 30, 97-67, and Hawthorn glided past St. Kilda by a score of 132-69 on Sunday, but the big game was the Kangaroo smackdown of West Coast, pulling away to win 85-75 at the end in a wind-blown game in Tasmania. The announcers referred to it as a "four or five goal wind", meaning they expected the team playing towards the wind to score that much more - and in the first half, they weren't disappointed. But to the surprise of all in the last, North Melbourne managed to score just as many as the Eagles did to hold on for a victory.
The very Commonwealth holiday Monday matchup between Collingwood and Melbourne on the Queen's (official) Birthday went the way of the Magpies (as it seemingly always does) by 25 points, 110-85, although the Demons were tied close to three-quarter time!
This coming week is the first of three "bye" weeks, with just six games each week while a third of the teams take a hiatus to lick their wounds (and if you're Gold Coast, find enough healthy players to field a team next week). Here's the line-up:
Geelong/Port Adelaide Friday night (great game potentially! I'll take Geelong...)
Fremantle/Gold Coast Saturday afternoon (on the other hand...)
Essendon/West Coast Saturday twilight (hard to imagine the Dons winning in Perth)
Sydney/North Melbourne Saturday night (should be the Swans despite NMK's last game)
GWS/Collingwood Sunday afternoon (best game of the round - flip a coin! I'll take the Pies)
Melbourne/St. Kilda Sunday twilight (should be close - I'm thinking the Saints...)
Monday, June 8, 2015
Another felon released in the NFL
Brandon Spikes was released by the Patriots today after his damaged car was found abandoned on I-495 in Foxborough a day earlier. Last week, the Chicago Bears released Ray McDonald after the latest of his domestic assault and dog attacks and other abuse and violent behaviors. No team seems to have the slightest interest in signing the talented McDonald, either.
What's the NFL coming to when you can't play in the league just because you're a certified felon with a large and recent history of unsafe behavior and no sign of changing?
(Good on ya, NFL!)
What's the NFL coming to when you can't play in the league just because you're a certified felon with a large and recent history of unsafe behavior and no sign of changing?
(Good on ya, NFL!)
Thursday, June 4, 2015
Talk about bad injury luck - here's a young man I admire
Through five or six years of hard knocks, recurrent injuries, strenuous rehabs and more bad luck, Anthony Morabito has had more than his fair share of occasions to demonstrate his resilience, his positive morale, and his character.
And he's continuing to do it in spades.
Morabito, who apparently has lost yet another season to injury now as bone bruising and other knee issues continue to plague the Fremantle recruit, showed how he's overcoming more injuries than any one player should ever have to deal with.
Head coach Ross Lyon talked about him earlier this week, and this quote stood out for me:
"He puts it into context that this is just a football injury and says, 'I look around me and I see real tragedy'. So he's in pretty good shape."
The idea that he can realize that spending six years chasing your dream to get three games total out of it (so far) is nothing compared to the real human tragedies all around us all is remarkable maturity for a twenty-three year old who's seen more than enough already.
Watching the game against Melbourne up in Alice Springs last season, when his name was called at the last minute - the team rushed his parents up the desert to see him play! - and to see that crowd of people cheer his every move was one of the most heart-warming things I heard all year.
Morabito was a very high draft pick in 2010 - he has talent!
And someday...he'll get to show it off again....
And he's continuing to do it in spades.
Morabito, who apparently has lost yet another season to injury now as bone bruising and other knee issues continue to plague the Fremantle recruit, showed how he's overcoming more injuries than any one player should ever have to deal with.
Head coach Ross Lyon talked about him earlier this week, and this quote stood out for me:
"He puts it into context that this is just a football injury and says, 'I look around me and I see real tragedy'. So he's in pretty good shape."
The idea that he can realize that spending six years chasing your dream to get three games total out of it (so far) is nothing compared to the real human tragedies all around us all is remarkable maturity for a twenty-three year old who's seen more than enough already.
Watching the game against Melbourne up in Alice Springs last season, when his name was called at the last minute - the team rushed his parents up the desert to see him play! - and to see that crowd of people cheer his every move was one of the most heart-warming things I heard all year.
Morabito was a very high draft pick in 2010 - he has talent!
And someday...he'll get to show it off again....
Coming up on AFL week 10!
After nine weeks, with Fremantle still poised on top of the ladder, clear by two, we used the AFL Ladder Predictor to play the "what if" game...you know: What if things go the way we predict they will game by game? Who finishes where?
Well, here's what we got:
> Fremantle and Sydney should easily claim the coveted top two spots in finals, four games clear of everyone else (the only teams with fewer than seven losses, we think). Freo first, Swans second, but no undefeated season (they're not beating Hawthorn in Tasmania).
> Slots 3 through 6 are tight. We have Hawthorn 3rd, GWS 4th, Adelaide 5th, West Coast 6th, but wouldn't be surprised by any shuffling within that group. Remember, #3 and #4 get the "double chance", where they can lose game one to Freo or Sydney and still live to host next week...and if they beat them, they get a week off and host the preliminary final! Also remember that the Hawks and Eagles have (and are likely to hold onto) a huge percentage advantage.
> It's the race for the last two spots that will really be interesting! Our predictor came up with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs hanging on for 7th and 8th places, barely ahead of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Geelong, with another game back to Richmond and a big gap to Essendon, whom we don't see holding up as the season progresses.
> Can Melbourne win seven? Can the Saints win five? And who takes the Wooden Spoon: Carlton or Gold Coast? We have them both with two wins, and mere percentage points apart, but the Blues to be slightly behind the Suns with a thrashing in round 23 by the Hawks the difference.
> Will any of that come true? Remember, we're the folks who said North was going 18-4 this season: Don't trust our prognostication skills! (On the other hand, we're in the top 1-2% in the AFL Tipping Competition - picking winners - so maybe we know SOMETHING!)
Here are our picks for Round 10:
Fremantle beats Richmond by 20-30 points at home. No one beats Freo in Freo.
Adelaide over Carlton with ease; well over the 30 point spread.
The only thing keeping Sydney from beating Gold Coast by more than the 44 point spread will be pity...
I'm picking Essendon over Geelong, against the oddsmakers (not a huge risk - it's a 4 point spread).
Western would like to win in Adelaide, but Port Adelaide needs to win this game...
GWS by a ton over Brisbane, once they get into third gear...
Despite the close (3 point) spread, I'm taking West Coast over the Kangaroos by a LOT!
They've gone WLWLWLWLW so far this season; how badly do you think Hawthorn wants to break that pattern against St. Kilda? "A hundred point margin" badly?
Despite the chinks in Collingwood's armor, I'm still taking them over Melbourne this time.
Well, here's what we got:
> Fremantle and Sydney should easily claim the coveted top two spots in finals, four games clear of everyone else (the only teams with fewer than seven losses, we think). Freo first, Swans second, but no undefeated season (they're not beating Hawthorn in Tasmania).
> Slots 3 through 6 are tight. We have Hawthorn 3rd, GWS 4th, Adelaide 5th, West Coast 6th, but wouldn't be surprised by any shuffling within that group. Remember, #3 and #4 get the "double chance", where they can lose game one to Freo or Sydney and still live to host next week...and if they beat them, they get a week off and host the preliminary final! Also remember that the Hawks and Eagles have (and are likely to hold onto) a huge percentage advantage.
> It's the race for the last two spots that will really be interesting! Our predictor came up with Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs hanging on for 7th and 8th places, barely ahead of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, and Geelong, with another game back to Richmond and a big gap to Essendon, whom we don't see holding up as the season progresses.
> Can Melbourne win seven? Can the Saints win five? And who takes the Wooden Spoon: Carlton or Gold Coast? We have them both with two wins, and mere percentage points apart, but the Blues to be slightly behind the Suns with a thrashing in round 23 by the Hawks the difference.
> Will any of that come true? Remember, we're the folks who said North was going 18-4 this season: Don't trust our prognostication skills! (On the other hand, we're in the top 1-2% in the AFL Tipping Competition - picking winners - so maybe we know SOMETHING!)
Here are our picks for Round 10:
Fremantle beats Richmond by 20-30 points at home. No one beats Freo in Freo.
Adelaide over Carlton with ease; well over the 30 point spread.
The only thing keeping Sydney from beating Gold Coast by more than the 44 point spread will be pity...
I'm picking Essendon over Geelong, against the oddsmakers (not a huge risk - it's a 4 point spread).
Western would like to win in Adelaide, but Port Adelaide needs to win this game...
GWS by a ton over Brisbane, once they get into third gear...
Despite the close (3 point) spread, I'm taking West Coast over the Kangaroos by a LOT!
They've gone WLWLWLWLW so far this season; how badly do you think Hawthorn wants to break that pattern against St. Kilda? "A hundred point margin" badly?
Despite the chinks in Collingwood's armor, I'm still taking them over Melbourne this time.
Tuesday, June 2, 2015
Technically NOT the kind of futbol we cover here...
...but it's HUGE news for the soccer fans around the world: FIFA president Sepp Blatter has resigned, due to the corruption scandal that's hit the World Cup bidding (Qatar? Really?).
In any good organization, the buck has to stop with the boss, and without any change in the process of prosecution, Blatter undoubtedly had no choice. It's a sad day in the world of sports in general.
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