Wednesday, July 1, 2015

This week's prognostications...

For round 14 of the Australian footy season...

- Sydney is favored at home by 9 over Port Adelaide; we have it more like 24 points and are taking them to cover easily.
- Hawthorn is favored by 23 at the MCG over Collingwood in the battle for fourth on the ladder; we think that's about right.
- Richmond at home against the floundering GWS: favored by 25, should end up higher than that.
- North Melbourne goes to the Gold Coast and is favored by 18; even with Gary Ablett due back this week, it's hard to imaging the Kangaroos winning by less than 18.
- Western is favored over Carlton by 11; despite Carlton's improved form, we have it as a 24 point spread and would bet that way.
- West Coast is favored by 24 at Melbourne; our ratings have it at 38, but we're settling for a bet to win for the Eagles.
- Essendon is favored over St. Kilda by ten in a battle of 4-8 teams; we're choosing the 2:30 to 1 upset and taking the Saints to win outright.
- Adelaide at home, favored by 5 over Geelong, with both teams on the fringe of the top eight, trying to make the finals; we see another upset here and are taking Geelong to win outright. Both of these bets, by the way, are against what our rating system says. Trusting our instincts. We have five games that the FF ratings disagree with the odds makers by more than ten points; it'll be interesting to see what happens!
- And finally, Fremantle should dismantle Brisbane - the oddsmakers say by 53; we don't think they'll keep the foot on the gas that long. 

For Week 2 of the Canadian Football League...

- Hamilton at Winnipeg: we're predicting Hamilton by two, 24-22.
- Calgary at Montreal: Calgary should win easily, 29-7.
- British Columbia at Ottawa: despite last week's fool's gold, BC wins 32-21.
- Toronto at Saskatchewan: this would have been different before last weekend! However, giving the circumstances at each franchise after the first game, we'll go Toronto by six, 29-23.

Our AFL record is immaculate: we've chosen 78 correct winners out of 108 (over 72%), which places us in the top half of the top 1% of AFL "tipsters" this year as certified by the AFL itself.  On the other hand, we went one for four during our first week of picking CFL games, mostly due to fallen quarterbacks. But, a loss is a loss, and we'll simply hope we've done better this week!

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