Yesterday, we posted our predictions for the FBS conferences, and today it's time for the FCS conferences - the "Football Championship Series", which means that they have a playoff system to select their champion, unlike the FBS, who...um, now has a playoff to select their champion.
Well, at least it's still true that the FBS teams have bowl games to look forward to, unlike the FCS teams, who...well, actually, the MEAC and the SWAC have pulled out of the playoff system to have their champions meet in the, uh, Celebration Bowl. Hmmmm.
So much for differences. So, from now on, we really need to stop calling them "FBS" and "FCS", and call them what they used to be: 1-A and 1-AA. Here we go!
Missouri Valley Conference:
The strongest conference in the FCS, unquestioned. Both finalists came from the MVC last year, with North Dakota St beating Illinois St in a thrilling final. This year, expect those teams 1-2 in the conference again, with followers Northern Iowa, South Dakota St, Youngstown St, and Indiana St all making plans for the playoffs as well. Below them, only South Dakota is sure not to make the playoffs, with slots 7-8-9 filled by Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Missouri St.
Big Sky Conference:
The top four teams this year will probably match last year's, including repeating champion Eastern Washington on their fire-red field (so hard to look at!), with fellow playoff teams Montana, Montana St, and newcomer Idaho St. After them, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona will be fighting it out for 5th; Sacramento St should land around 7th; Weber St and Southern Utah should be able to win enough to move up towards 8th; and the bottom four teams should be Portland St, North Dakota, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado.
Southland Conference:
Third in strength, the Southland houses the biggest threat to North Dakota St's possible five-peat (you read that right: five), Sam Houston St. Behind them, Stephen F Austin University and Southeast Louisiana are the only real threats to their title aspirations in the conference, and should both make the playoffs as well. Central Arkansas should be a solid 4th, unable to defeat the three teams above them but better than the other seven. The middle of the pack will be McNeese St, Northwestern St, Abilene Christian, and Lamar; while the three bottom of the pack teams continue to be Incarnate Word, Nicholls St, and Houston Baptist.
Colonial Athletic Association:
New Hampshire and Villanova should be fighting it out for the conference title, but are probably not a threat to steal the national title from NDSU. James Madison and then Richmond will probably each put together seasons worthy of playoff selection, but fall behind UNH and the Wildcats. William and Mary is the class of the rest, followed closely by a large pack including Albany, Stony Brook, Maine, Delaware, and Towson. Elon and Rhode Island will bring up the rear.
Seventeen of the twenty-four playoff spots should go to those four conferences, still the powers of the FCS. Below them, four other conferences will look to scrape up the scraps:
Big South Conference:
As opposed to the Southland, the Big South was ruled by Coastal Carolina until they were upended by Liberty at the end of the season; this year, Coastal should return the favor and finish their undefeated league season, with Liberty's one loss to them and both heading into the post-season. They'll be followed in order by Charleston Southern, Presbyterian, Monmouth, Gardner-Webb, and first-year football team Kennesaw State!
The Southern Conference:
As opposed to the Southland OR the Big South, the Southern will be dominated by Chattanooga this year, with Samford and Wofford their sidekicks, waiting outside when the playoffs start and only their champion is invited. Behind them will be the trio of Western Carolina, The Citadel and Furman; Mercer in 7th, VMI in 8th, and first-year football team East Tennessee State in 9th! (And yes, the first game for each first year team is against each other! How perfect is that?)
Ohio Valley Conference:
Three teams should make the playoffs here, if the breaks go their direction: champion Jacksonville St, a possible top ten team, and hopefully both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky have the strength to beat everyone except J-State and possibly each other on their schedule and make the playoffs as wild cards.
Pioneer Football League:
What the Sun Belt is to FBS football, the Pioneer League is to the FCS. We guarantee that someone will win. Officially. However, the highest rated teams in the Pioneer would be the lowest rated in any of those top four conferences, and the only thing from Following Football simply renaming PFL as "the Bottom Eight" or however many we're keeping track of this year would be Savannah St, Houston Baptist, Davidson... actually, even the two new schools might be better. In the "add insult to irony" category, the league champs the first two years (San Diego in '13; Jacksonville in '14) were each ineligible to attend the playoffs last year due to indiscrepancies in financing (it's expensive to be not quite as bad as the other teams!). This year, we're hoping to see the winner (probably Jacksonville) actually get the chance to attend the FCS playoffs and get their whuppin' fair and square.
Tomorrow, we'll take a closer look at the bottom of the Pioneer as well as the other bottom feeder teams; we'll also examine the four leagues which don't take part in the Football Championship Subdivision Championships because...er...ah...well. We'll take a look anyway. (And we'll recap the 24 teams we expect to see in the December playoffs competing for the DIVISION 1-AA TITLE!...which the NCAA will insist on calling the FCS championship. Because - hypocrisy. But then, it IS the NCAA!)
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