Wednesday, August 12, 2015

PROPHECIES IN FOOTBALL - August Week 2

So, here is our new regular Wednesday feature, PROPHECIES IN FOOTBALL, which just means we're going to condense our weekly predictions into one post each week, on Wednesdays, where you can count on finding them the same time and place each week.

(And of course, if you're new to Following Football ACNC, you ought to know that our track record across the different forms of football is unmatched! Whether it's American college or pro, where we were consistently ahead of th Vegas pros all year long in 2014, or in Canada, where went a perfect 5-0 last Grey Cup playoff season and sit up in the top third so far of predictors in this topsy-turvy CFL season, or in Australia, where our record this season is in the top 1% of all punters in Australia for AFL predictions.... We know our stuff!)

So, we'll start with the NFL, which starts week 1 of its preseason tomorrow with a slate of games. If you bet preseason NFL games, you need psychological help, so we're NOT feeding your addiction by guessing at games where coaches may or may not play starters at all. But a few games stand out as interesting: Green Bay at New England Thursday evening, without Brady, of course (not enough pressure for him), but Rodgers should see one series; the Jets, of course, play tomorrow at Detroit, home of auto wrecks; Buffalo, where Rex Ryan just pickd up his old linebacker just released by his old team (we give him a puncher's chance of making the team!), plays Friday; Jaxville debuts their new QB Friday night, while Tampa goes to Minnesota to unveil theirs against a team with a win under their belt already; for us Northwesterners, Denver goes to Seattle Friday night; and Philly unveils whatever it now has on the roster against Indy Sunday night on the NFL Network.

In the CFL, where five teams whare the lead with 4-2 records, including last year's expansion Ottawa Redblacks, who won half that total in 18 tries last year! In fact, only two teams are below .500: Winnipeg at 3-4, and Saskatchewan, on a bye at 0-7! This weekend, we see Edmonton over Montreal (favored by one) in Montreal; Toronto should go to Winnipeg and win easily with the Bombers breaking in a new QB (what else is new in Canada?); Hamilton has NEVER lost in their year-old home stadium, and won't this week against BC; and while Ottawa has been great, and a win wouldn't shock, defending champ Calgary got last week off and is 4-0 at home, so we see them winning Saturday. (Given how this ludicrous season has gone, where oddsmakers have picked the wrong team more than 60% of the time this season!, you should go AGAINST our picks, since we agree with the other experts in general this week!)

Finally, down under, we are just four weeks from the end of the season and finals month in September! Fremantle has the top spot just about locked down anyway at 16-2, but can clinch it by beating western rival West Coast Sunday, which we're predicting they'll do with superstar Nat Fyfe back, and the Eagles' star ruck Nic Nat gone for the week following the death of his mother. Also on Sunday, Richmond and Western will continue their quests for spots in the crucial top four with home wins against Gold Coast and Melbourne, respectively. (No champion has come from outside the top four since the current "double chance" finals system was instituted in 1997.)

On Friday, Sydney hosts Collingwood and (even without superstud Lance Franklin) should add to the Magpies' epic second half collapse with a win to push back into the fourth position. Saturday, Adelaide goes to Essendon and destroys the already dessicated remains of a once-proud Bomber franchise; North Melbourne "hosts" St. Kilda in Hobart, Tasmania (surprisingly close by), and except for the fact that their performance bounces up and down like their Kangaroo namesake, should win comfortably against the surprisingly decent Saints.

The last three games are the toughest to call. At home, Port Adelaide SHOULD beat the Giants, who have a ton of injuries but continue to battle for a first-ever spot in finals in their fourth year. But they may have "put the cue in the rack", as they say, and GWS has EVERYTHING to fight for...Despite being fifteen point dogs, I'm taking GWS in an upset. Geelong used to have Hawthorn's number; for something like five years, the "Kennett Curse" kept the Hawks from beating Gerlong, until the critical prelim final two seasons ago. Now, it's easy to take Hawthorn again, although personally I'm betting the "over" (181) rather than the winner (prob Hawthorn). Last, the Battle for the Wooden Spoon between three-win Carlton and home team Brisbane, with just two wins this year. The Lions are favored, at home, but I think not only does The Blues have more talent, I think the Lions want that top draft pick more. Carlton in an "upset".

Our record so far this season: 112-60 in the AFL, 12-12 in the CFL (well above average, as we said!), 0-0 in the NFL and NCAA.

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