Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Going into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs,...

...the tiers have been updated below. For obvious reasons, Carolina has made a significant jump upwards, although we resisted shoehorning them into the top eight - they really aren't a top eight team, although given their body of work they're probably not a top twelve team, either. (Seriously...their five game win streak includes three NFC South teams, and games against Cleveland with Manziel at QB and Arizona with the Lord knows who at QB. Don't get too impressed just yet.)

Curiously, all eight divisions are represented in the round of eight! The only division winner to lose (Pittsburgh) lost to a team within its own division. 

Here are the rankings at the eighth pole, as they say on the horse track...

FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - weekly rankings
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (including playoffs)
FF rank Team Div week 17 ConfRc DvRec Home Season WC rnd
A1 Seattle Seahawks N-W A1 10-2 5-1 7-1 12-4 A1
A2 New England Patriots A-E A2 9-3 4-2 7-1 12-4 A2
A3 Green Bay Packers N-N A3 9-3 5-1 8-0 12-4 A3
A4 Denver Broncos A-W A4 10-2 6-0 8-0 12-4 A4
A5 Dallas Cowboys N-E A5 8-4 4-2 4-4 13-4 A5
B6 Indianapolis Colts A-S B8 9-3 6-0 6-2 12-5 B6
B7 Baltimore Ravens A-N C10 6-6 3-3 6-2 11-6 B7
B8 Detroit Lions N-N B6 9-3 5-1 7-1 11-6 B8
C09 Pittsburgh Steelers A-N B7 9-3 4-2 6-2 11-6 C09
C10 Cincinnati Bengals A-N C11 7-5 3-3 5-2-1 10-6-1 C10
C11 Carolina Panthers N-S D19 6-6 4-2 4-4 8-8-1 C11
C12 Arizona Cardinals N-W B9 8-4 3-3 7-1 11-6 C12
D13 Philadelphia Eagles N-E C12 6-6 4-2 6-2 10-6 D13
D14 San Diego Chargers A-W D13 6-6 2-4 5-3 9-7 D14
D15 Buffalo Bills A-E D14 5-7 4-2 5-3 9-7 D15
D16 Kansas City Chiefs A-W D15 6-6 3-3 6-2 9-7 D16
D17 Miami Dolphins A-E D16 7-5 3-3 4-4 8-8 D17
D18 San Francisco 49ers N-W D17 7-5 2-4 4-4 8-8 D18
D19 Houston Texans A-S D18 8-4 4-2 5-3 9-7 D19
E20 St. Louis Rams N-W E20 4-8 2-4 3-5 6-10 E20
E21 Cleveland Browns A-N E21 4-8 2-4 4-4 7-9 E21
E22 New Orleans Saints N-S E22 6-6 3-3 3-5 7-9 E22
E23 New York Giants N-E E23 4-8 2-4 3-5 6-10 E23
E24 Minnesota Vikings N-N E24 6-6 1-5 5-3 7-9 E24
F25 Atlanta Falcons N-S F25 6-6 5-1 3-5 6-10 F25
G26 Chicago Bears N-N G26 4-8 1-5 2-6 5-11 G26
G27 Washington Redskins N-E G27 2-10 2-4 3-5 4-12 G27
G28 New York Jets A-E G28 4-8 1-5 2-6 4-12 G28
G29 Oakland Raiders A-W G29 2-10 1-5 3-5 3-13 G29
H30 Jacksonville Jaguars A-S H30 2-10 1-5 3-5 3-13 H30
H31 Tampa Buccaneers N-S H31 1-11 0-6 0-8 2-14 H31
H32 Tennessee Titans A-S H32 2-10 1-5 1-7 2-14 H32

...as with the colleges, a few thoughts:

...The two conferences "homogenized" somewhat as the end of the season arrived - at one point, there was a huge clump of AFC teams in the middle of the rankings, with all of the NFC teams either above (six or seven of them) or below (...yeah...). But as you can probably see, while there is still a block of NFC teams (from #22-27), that clump of AFC in the middle was broken up by the Rams moving up to #20 and the 49ers dropping to #18 in particular.
...the NFC South spread out some as well, with Carolina's advancement and Tampa's continued fall: their "final" rankings were #11*, #22, #25, and #31.
...in fact, the overall total ranking of the AFC South (teams are ranked as #6, 19, 30, and 32) is just about as bad - they total 87, while the NFC South totals 89 (both subject to change as the playoffs advance). 
...at one point, the defending champion Seahawks were ranked below 14th (week 10), only to finish the season as the #1 team going into the knockout round. Good luck to Carolina and whoever else has to go into Seattle...
...conversely, Arizona was ranked #1 as recently as week 11, and Philadelphia and San Diego each spent time in the A tier during the middle of the season. Both of the latter missed the playoffs entirely, and the Cardinals might as well have.
...Again, like the colleges, we will start with this set of tiers when the 2015 season kicks off (modified with the results of the last seven playoff games still to come, of course!). We won't bother with numbers until enough new evidence is in, but there's no point adjusting for free agency and draft picks and "good offseasons" until we see them in actual game action (and rarely does pre-season help that - the teams who go 4-0 in preseason and 4-12 in the regular season are legion.)

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