So, here are the games and my thoughts on the upcoming AFL schedule for May 1-3...
Collingwood @ Carlton... Both teams won last week, playing their best game of the season, and meet under the lights on a Friday night (the equivalent of the old "Monday Night Football" in the states before NBC's Sunday tried to usurp it). Hard not to pick Collingwood regardless - they simply remain a class above the Blues, who won't win more than a couple of games this year. But that would put the Magpies at 4-1, and with the next six weeks all holding winnable games (Geelong, Richmond, Gold Coast, North, Melbourne, and Geelong again) before their bye week, they can reasonably dream of 10-1 at the midpoint of the season...and then what?
Geelong @ Richmond... On the other hand, here's a game between two teams who really need the win! Geelong's season risks going down the drain if they can't beat a middling team like Richmond - but they've lost to other middling teams already, and have shown they may not have the speed to compete with virtually anyone this season. Richmond thought they were set to run this year but lost two sort-of embarrassing games to Western and Melbourne, two lower teams that simply out-worked them. Translation: both teams NEED to win this game...and one of them WON'T!
Western @ Sydney... By all rights, the Swans should blow the Bulldogs out of the water by forty points. But the Western Bulldogs are 3-1, having been simply out classed by Hawthorn and by simply outworking their other three opponents (West Coast, Richmond, and Adelaide), all finals candidates. If Sydney takes them seriously, they win. If not...
Brisbane @ Gold Coast... the state of Queensland hosts the only two teams without a win, two proud franchises who desperately want to avoid holding the wooden spoon at an 0-5 start to the season. I'm picking the home team, but they've either bought into their own press clippings this year and assume victory, or Gary Ablett Jr. has some magical power on the field that wills his team to victory, or Guy McKenna was a MUCH better coach than Rodney Eade is. The Brisbane Lions are currently a hard-working team that's simply not very talented at the moment; parts of the game against West Coast last weekend were sad because they were trying so hard, yet couldn't compete against the bigger, stronger, and faster Eagles.
Hawthorn @ North Melbourne... I am so tempted to take the Kangaroos again this week in the battle of vastly different 2-2 teams! They have the talent to do exactly what Port Adelaide did to the Hawks last weekend: annihilate them in the first half! (Remember, the Roos played the Power to nearly a draw in round 3.) But I have faith in the integrity of the two-time defending champs - after an embarrassing first half against Port, they sucked it up and played magnificently in the second, coming back from 58 down to close within a goal before losing. They'll come back with pride this week and win handily.
GWS @ West Coast... This is going to be a treat! West Coast is the betting favorite, but they're well known as a "flat-track bully", building their percentage off of poor teams but getting hammered by the good ones (remember what Fremantle did to them in r. 3!). Take a good look at GWS. They're a GOOD team. Currently, they sit at #2 on the ladder, the highest percentage of the five 3-1 teams, with only a well-fought loss to Sydney on their platter, although their wins may not be the most impressive (SK, Melbourne, and Gold Coast). Still, I think they will be able to exploit the Eagles' many weaknesses in the backfield and win handily.
Fremantle @ Melbourne... Boy, it would be nice to be able to tell you that the Demons have a chance against Fremantle! Such a good tackling team! Such hard workers! Unfortunately, Fremantle's number one on the ladder for a reason. Nat Fyfe and company will soundly rout the Dees.
Essendon @ St. Kilda... The Saints would like to say they can handle a team like Essendon - but their youth won't hold up for four quarters again the Dons. And after a loss like they took on ANZAC Day against their main rivals (Collingwood), Essendon won't be sitting back ignoring the Saints until it's too late.
Port Adelaide @ Adelaide... Finally, the game of the week! The Adelaide crosstown showdown between two powerful teams could produce some stellar play and a very close game! The Port Power started with two losses to great teams (Fremantle and Sydney) and then defeated two other great teams (North and Hawthorn) before taking on the 3-1 Crows, who ran off impressive wins over North, Collingwood, and Melbourne before Western blew them out on Sunday. It's hard not to be impressed with Port's schedule - for them, this is just one more game, and they've looked better every game. But Adelaide needs this game after being embarrassed by the Bulldogs last week. No matter how it unfolds, though, this should be one of the great crosstown games ever!
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