Three days into the Aussie Rules pre-season, we've already had two major knee injuries that threaten to end the season for two of our best and brightest: Tom Libertore of the Western Bulldogs blew an ACL in their game last night against Richmond, while the West Coast Eagles confirmed that they've lost defender and 2014 best-and-fairest Eric Mackenzie with a similar injury for an undetermined amount of time after defeating Carlton on Friday night.
Pre-season is a terrible dilemma for coaches of all sports: how do you prepare your team for the "real" season without endangering your still-out-of-condition athletes? They've got to play, or they won't get into game readiness - even the players tell you that - but if they're out of shape, are they safe to play? ACL injuries are notoriously fickle occurrences anyway: these could have happened to any athlete at virtually any time, and Mackenzie's injury in particular was almost ludicrous in its lack of contact. Perhaps it's simple coincidence that these two injuries to star players happened in the first three days of pre-season...but it makes you think.
(And here are the highlights from Friday and Saturday's games - West Coast v Carlton on Friday, Brisbane edging St. Kilda on Saturday afternoon, as well as the Richmond / Western Bulldog game.
Saturday, February 28, 2015
Thursday, February 26, 2015
So much for OUR predictions...
Collingwood made me the first of a zillion bad predictions for the coming 2015 AFL season by routing the defending champion Hawthorn club by 44 points, 116-72.
While it's barely the beginning of even the pre-season, here's a chance for novices to get a taste of what actual footy game action looks and feels like - there's a highlight reel with every game recap, enough to show you what the excitement's all about!
While it's barely the beginning of even the pre-season, here's a chance for novices to get a taste of what actual footy game action looks and feels like - there's a highlight reel with every game recap, enough to show you what the excitement's all about!
Nothing more than a friendly rivalry, right?
This feels like my experience at Caltech! A Georgia Tech student was sentenced for hacking into the U-Georgia @ Athens website to...ah, edit their football schedule...
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
Where do the AFL clubs stand coming into the pre-season?
Looking at the eighteen clubs coming into the NAB Challenge pre-season games over the next four weeks, we'd like to share the starting point for each club, PLUS the adjustments we're looking at in these five areas: trade/draft, injuries, stability, maturity/aging, and schedule, totaled up in a plus/minus form that we're NOT going to simply add into their rating - after all, the important thing isn't what happens off the field, but rather how it all comes together ON the pitch...
Hawthorn (81.6, net +/- of 0)
Sydney (77.7, net +/- of -1)
Port Adelaide (71.7, net +/- of +3)
Fremantle (70.3, net +/- of +1)
Adelaide (63.4, net +/- of -1)
North Melbourne (62.8, net +/- of -2)
West Coast (62.3, net +/- of 0)
Geelong (61.8, net +/- of 0)
Richmond (55.1, net +/- of -2)
Essendon (53.7, net +/- of -3)
Gold Coast (43.9, net +/- of +2)
Carlton (40.7, net +/- of -1)
Collingwood (40.2, net +/- of -2)
Western (31.4, net +/- of +2)
Brisbane (26.4, net +/- of +3)
GWS (26.3, net +/- of +3)
Melbourne (20.2, net +/- of +1)
St. Kilda (10.5, net +/- of 0)
So...watch Brisbane and GWS moving upwards with a bullet, with the Western Bulldogs right behind them...look at Gold Coast, Adelaide, and West Coast making finals this coming year after failing to in 2014, watch Port move farther forward, and look for Hawthorn to start the year where they finished last year: leading the pack.
Hawthorn (81.6, net +/- of 0)
Sydney (77.7, net +/- of -1)
Port Adelaide (71.7, net +/- of +3)
Fremantle (70.3, net +/- of +1)
Adelaide (63.4, net +/- of -1)
North Melbourne (62.8, net +/- of -2)
West Coast (62.3, net +/- of 0)
Geelong (61.8, net +/- of 0)
Richmond (55.1, net +/- of -2)
Essendon (53.7, net +/- of -3)
Gold Coast (43.9, net +/- of +2)
Carlton (40.7, net +/- of -1)
Collingwood (40.2, net +/- of -2)
Western (31.4, net +/- of +2)
Brisbane (26.4, net +/- of +3)
GWS (26.3, net +/- of +3)
Melbourne (20.2, net +/- of +1)
St. Kilda (10.5, net +/- of 0)
So...watch Brisbane and GWS moving upwards with a bullet, with the Western Bulldogs right behind them...look at Gold Coast, Adelaide, and West Coast making finals this coming year after failing to in 2014, watch Port move farther forward, and look for Hawthorn to start the year where they finished last year: leading the pack.
It's almost time Down Under!
As I write, the Thursday morning footy show "First Bounce" is running on line on afl.com.au, and the Aussie Rules Footy universe is ready for the start of the pre-season "tonight", which means 1 a.m. here in Idaho (midnight on the American west coast, 3 a.m. on the east), when Collingwood and Hawthorn meet in Tasmania.
The Magpies and the Hawks are the two highest membership clubs in Australia, but they're two clubs heading in opposite directions on the field: Hawthorn is the two-time defending AFL Grand Final Champion, while Collingwood slipped to eleventh with a slough of injuries and a declining talent level, falling out of finals for the first time since winning the title five years ago. Frankly, this pre-season clash will probably be brown and gold in color, as the Hawks are putting plenty of veterans on the field against a ton of youth in black and white for the Pies. But... it's still going to be GREAT to get the obloid flying again in 2015!
The Magpies and the Hawks are the two highest membership clubs in Australia, but they're two clubs heading in opposite directions on the field: Hawthorn is the two-time defending AFL Grand Final Champion, while Collingwood slipped to eleventh with a slough of injuries and a declining talent level, falling out of finals for the first time since winning the title five years ago. Frankly, this pre-season clash will probably be brown and gold in color, as the Hawks are putting plenty of veterans on the field against a ton of youth in black and white for the Pies. But... it's still going to be GREAT to get the obloid flying again in 2015!
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Mariota or Winston? You decide!
The latest mock draft I saw (from Don Banks on SI.com) has Jamies Winston going with the first pick of the draft to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which is perfectly viable given that coach Lovie Smith has said that he's "OK" with what they know about the FSU quarterback at this point. On the other hand, Greg Bedard of MMQB (ironically, a subsidiary of SI) is firmly convinced that it's a smoke screen, and the Bucs have locked in on Marcus Mariota, because of the Ducks' QB's connection to coach Mark Helfrich, and his connection to the new OC and QB coaches at Tampa Bay.
Which would YOU choose? If you're Tampa Bay - let's face it: you NEED a quarterback. (Currently, they have ONE on the roster, a perennial back up.) Do you take the local-ish boy with the baggage? Or the "safe bet" whose background fits the background of Dirk Koetter and Lovie Smith?
Which would YOU choose? If you're Tampa Bay - let's face it: you NEED a quarterback. (Currently, they have ONE on the roster, a perennial back up.) Do you take the local-ish boy with the baggage? Or the "safe bet" whose background fits the background of Dirk Koetter and Lovie Smith?
Just 36 hours from now...
...the first of the pre-season NAB Challenge Australian Rules Football season games will begin! Two-time defending champion Hawthorn will play traditional fan favorite Collingwood on the island of Tasmania, in Launceston.
Many of the teams in the AFL have a relationship with a second location - develop a second fan base, if you will - and for the Hawthorn Hawks, that's Tasmania. They play four regular season games there each year! Imagine asking the Seattle Seahawks to play three or four games in Spokane, or Portland, or Boise! But the AFL uses this the way the NFLforces uses games in London: to promote and grow the sport!
Like any pre-season game, this one will be a mix of veterans and youngsters who have never played in the big leagues before this...and may never again after this, depending on how they do! But it's a great introduction to the sport, and we'll post whatever we can from the NAB Challenge here on Following Football for you novices to pick up the game and the lingo! If you want to follow it on line, AFL.com.au will probably carry the radio broadcast live - since it's on the other side of the world, they're eighteen hours ahead of those of us in the USA Mountain zone, so their 7 pm becomes our 1 a.m. broadcast. (Yeah, unless you're an addict like me, that's probably not going to happen...) But that's what computers are for!
Many of the teams in the AFL have a relationship with a second location - develop a second fan base, if you will - and for the Hawthorn Hawks, that's Tasmania. They play four regular season games there each year! Imagine asking the Seattle Seahawks to play three or four games in Spokane, or Portland, or Boise! But the AFL uses this the way the NFL
Like any pre-season game, this one will be a mix of veterans and youngsters who have never played in the big leagues before this...and may never again after this, depending on how they do! But it's a great introduction to the sport, and we'll post whatever we can from the NAB Challenge here on Following Football for you novices to pick up the game and the lingo! If you want to follow it on line, AFL.com.au will probably carry the radio broadcast live - since it's on the other side of the world, they're eighteen hours ahead of those of us in the USA Mountain zone, so their 7 pm becomes our 1 a.m. broadcast. (Yeah, unless you're an addict like me, that's probably not going to happen...) But that's what computers are for!
Monday, February 23, 2015
So...how many teams do we want in Los Angeles?
One? Two? Three?
None?
For some reason, after twenty barren years in the second-largest metropolis in the country, there's suddenly a rush to fill a void that most of us don't even notice.
It's not as if the NFL hasn't flourished in the last twenty years, or that any of its current problems are affected or would be solved by having at least one team return to L.A.
But suddenly, the San Diego Chargers AND the Oakland Raiders are threatening to bolt their current stadia (that's the plural of 'stadium', erudite readers), and the St. Louis Rams are talking about doing the same thing and returning to its original stomping grounds. Admittedly, all three stadia (go out and use the word twice today - that's your homework assignment) are in poor shape, although the Edward Jones Dome and Qualcomm Stadium are the Taj Mahal in comparison to the dump that the Raiders and Athletics share in Oakland.
There's a huge issue if the Chargers and Raiders follow through with the shared stadium deal they're discussing, but it's hard to see this being the deal-breaker if money talks loudly enough.
Our question is - WHY? Every one of these teams has been in their current homes for a minimum of twenty years; the Chargers for almost fifty. Los Angeles is NOT hurting for things to do on a Sunday afternoon: that's why the Raiders and Rams left in the FIRST place! Between living in the sun and surf capital of the nation, Hollywood, and everything else SoCal has going for it, who has time to watch football? The USC and UCLA football teams can testify to this (so can their basketball teams, for that matter) - when they're not good/borderline great, they're nothing in that town. Do you really think the current Rams or Raiders would succeed financially there? Really?
Stick with stability. Fix the stadium issues where you are (WITH PRIVATE MONEY!), and stay put - your loyal fans there will thank you tenfold.
None?
For some reason, after twenty barren years in the second-largest metropolis in the country, there's suddenly a rush to fill a void that most of us don't even notice.
It's not as if the NFL hasn't flourished in the last twenty years, or that any of its current problems are affected or would be solved by having at least one team return to L.A.
But suddenly, the San Diego Chargers AND the Oakland Raiders are threatening to bolt their current stadia (that's the plural of 'stadium', erudite readers), and the St. Louis Rams are talking about doing the same thing and returning to its original stomping grounds. Admittedly, all three stadia (go out and use the word twice today - that's your homework assignment) are in poor shape, although the Edward Jones Dome and Qualcomm Stadium are the Taj Mahal in comparison to the dump that the Raiders and Athletics share in Oakland.
There's a huge issue if the Chargers and Raiders follow through with the shared stadium deal they're discussing, but it's hard to see this being the deal-breaker if money talks loudly enough.
Our question is - WHY? Every one of these teams has been in their current homes for a minimum of twenty years; the Chargers for almost fifty. Los Angeles is NOT hurting for things to do on a Sunday afternoon: that's why the Raiders and Rams left in the FIRST place! Between living in the sun and surf capital of the nation, Hollywood, and everything else SoCal has going for it, who has time to watch football? The USC and UCLA football teams can testify to this (so can their basketball teams, for that matter) - when they're not good/borderline great, they're nothing in that town. Do you really think the current Rams or Raiders would succeed financially there? Really?
Stick with stability. Fix the stadium issues where you are (WITH PRIVATE MONEY!), and stay put - your loyal fans there will thank you tenfold.
Saturday, February 21, 2015
And a Redskins follow-up...not the last, of course!
NOW, in the wake of the previous post, Washington coach Jay Gruden has declared that Robert Griffin III WILL be the starter when the season starts in September.
Why?
I mean, why say it? What he's accomplished is to prove that NOBODY'S in charge in the District of Columbia (insert federal government joke here), since there are others in the Redskins organization who have made it CLEAR that Griffin is persona non grata there. Claiming Griffin - or anyone - is the starter NOW is like telling us what the political arrangement on the moon base will be when we haven't even established the base yet! All that's been accomplished is to put a target on RG3's back now, because any observer with a pulse will tell you it doesn't MATTER who goes into camp as the starter: someone will play their way IN or OUT of the job regardless.
But the soap opera just got a new plot twist...stay tuned.
Why?
I mean, why say it? What he's accomplished is to prove that NOBODY'S in charge in the District of Columbia (insert federal government joke here), since there are others in the Redskins organization who have made it CLEAR that Griffin is persona non grata there. Claiming Griffin - or anyone - is the starter NOW is like telling us what the political arrangement on the moon base will be when we haven't even established the base yet! All that's been accomplished is to put a target on RG3's back now, because any observer with a pulse will tell you it doesn't MATTER who goes into camp as the starter: someone will play their way IN or OUT of the job regardless.
But the soap opera just got a new plot twist...stay tuned.
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
The Redskins are at it again: We GUARANTEE that RG3 is FINISHED there!
Let's just put this out there for the world to understand now... The folks running the Washington DC NFL professional team, currently referred to as the "Redskins" for reasons that escape the politically correct, are complete idiots.
It's tempting to simply blame the owner, Dan Snyder, and he is the one constant in the clusterf*** that this franchise has become. But he's not handling the day-to-day operation of the club, and blaming just him for the promotional letter which the team sent out to season ticket holders a couple of weeks ago naming all the star players who will be leading the team in 2015...and NOT including Robert Griffin III, ostensibly their starting QB? The man they gave up their draft future for? The man who presumably holds the starting job when camp starts for real in July? The man who IS the face of this franchise? (Be honest: is there ANYONE else on the Washington roster you'd recognize on sight?)
Haven't you just publicly slapped him in the face? Haven't you literally said to your season ticket holders, "RG3 is NOT part of our future"? And...haven't you done so WITHOUT talking to HIM? (As far as anyone knows?)
Now, we see this piece from FTW, where "theoretical back-up" and perennially mediocre NFL QB Kirk Cousins is working out with the coach's brother (MNF guru Jon Gruden) while Griffin is out of contact with his team.
Do you have any doubt who the starting quarterback will be for Washington in September? And...is it possible for Adam Silver to step in and plant some racist material on Snyder and get him out of the NFL?
Maybe the Washington franchise is an ideal one for a Green Bay style arrangement: Sell its stock on the open market and make its fans part owners of the team. Washington's got one of the ten or so most loyal fan bases in the league - Make it work! IT CANNOT BE ANY WORSE THAN WHAT THEY'VE SAT THROUGH THE LAST DECADE!
It's tempting to simply blame the owner, Dan Snyder, and he is the one constant in the clusterf*** that this franchise has become. But he's not handling the day-to-day operation of the club, and blaming just him for the promotional letter which the team sent out to season ticket holders a couple of weeks ago naming all the star players who will be leading the team in 2015...and NOT including Robert Griffin III, ostensibly their starting QB? The man they gave up their draft future for? The man who presumably holds the starting job when camp starts for real in July? The man who IS the face of this franchise? (Be honest: is there ANYONE else on the Washington roster you'd recognize on sight?)
Haven't you just publicly slapped him in the face? Haven't you literally said to your season ticket holders, "RG3 is NOT part of our future"? And...haven't you done so WITHOUT talking to HIM? (As far as anyone knows?)
Now, we see this piece from FTW, where "theoretical back-up" and perennially mediocre NFL QB Kirk Cousins is working out with the coach's brother (MNF guru Jon Gruden) while Griffin is out of contact with his team.
Do you have any doubt who the starting quarterback will be for Washington in September? And...is it possible for Adam Silver to step in and plant some racist material on Snyder and get him out of the NFL?
Maybe the Washington franchise is an ideal one for a Green Bay style arrangement: Sell its stock on the open market and make its fans part owners of the team. Washington's got one of the ten or so most loyal fan bases in the league - Make it work! IT CANNOT BE ANY WORSE THAN WHAT THEY'VE SAT THROUGH THE LAST DECADE!
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Slogans? SLOGANS!
The last post talked about the membership drives each of the teams is pushing right now, leading into the 2015 season which starts for "real" at the beginning of April.
And with any campaign, there are slogans to keep the attention of the viewing and listening public....Some of the slogans are (shall we say) better than others?
Kangaroos - "#getREAL"
Sydney Swans - "Feel it in '15"
Geelong - "We need you, be a member at home or far away"
Collingwood - "Side by side we stick together: it's more than a line in our song"
(what?)
None of those approach the dubious charm of some of Carlton's efforts a few years ago...
"They know we're coming" and "Can You Smell What The Blues Are Cooking?", straight out of The Rock's wrestling motto.
The all-time worst, in retrospect, belongs to the 2013 Essendon Dons, who were about to be embroiled in the worst doping scandal in AFL history: "Whatever It Takes". Really, Dons? It really ended up being "whatever it took", didn't it?
Some more of this year's better samples - "Unleash 2015" (Adelaide), "#ForeverFreo" (Fremantle), "My Heart Beats True" (Melbourne, a good slogan for a team trying to come back), "Bring The Noise" (Port Adelaide, to one of the louder fan bases in the league), and West Coast's "The West Is Ours" (always in a fan battle with its crosstown rival Fremantle). We kind of like some of the hashtag examples, too - #gatherthepack (Western Bulldogs), #StandTall (GWS, who has a great big front line), and #BelieveBelong (for Brisbane).
And with any campaign, there are slogans to keep the attention of the viewing and listening public....Some of the slogans are (shall we say) better than others?
Kangaroos - "#getREAL"
Sydney Swans - "Feel it in '15"
Geelong - "We need you, be a member at home or far away"
Collingwood - "Side by side we stick together: it's more than a line in our song"
(what?)
None of those approach the dubious charm of some of Carlton's efforts a few years ago...
"They know we're coming" and "Can You Smell What The Blues Are Cooking?", straight out of The Rock's wrestling motto.
The all-time worst, in retrospect, belongs to the 2013 Essendon Dons, who were about to be embroiled in the worst doping scandal in AFL history: "Whatever It Takes". Really, Dons? It really ended up being "whatever it took", didn't it?
Some more of this year's better samples - "Unleash 2015" (Adelaide), "#ForeverFreo" (Fremantle), "My Heart Beats True" (Melbourne, a good slogan for a team trying to come back), "Bring The Noise" (Port Adelaide, to one of the louder fan bases in the league), and West Coast's "The West Is Ours" (always in a fan battle with its crosstown rival Fremantle). We kind of like some of the hashtag examples, too - #gatherthepack (Western Bulldogs), #StandTall (GWS, who has a great big front line), and #BelieveBelong (for Brisbane).
Footy teams don't have "season ticket holders" - they have "members"...
And "members" are closer to "stockholders", the way the NFL's Green Bay Packers do it. Green Bay, the only community-owned football team in the US, has some unholy number of stockholders - I want to say over a million, but I've no idea if that's true or not. And most of them don't have tickets to games, of course, and what they get for their holding of stock is mostly unclear to me. Prestige? Maybe. I'm not sure if there's any dividend payback like "regular stock", but I don't think there is.
Anyway, in Australia, the teams have membership drives, and if you're a member of the footy club, you not only have the equivalent of season tickets (depending on how much you pay, I assume), but road game privileges as well (a certain number of seats are set aside for your opponent's members at games), team "swag", and voting rights for the team's budget and direction. You really ARE a member of the team.
Here's a report on the membership drives for each of the eighteen teams, but I'll write a quick synopsis of the numbers from 2014 so you can get a feel for what each team has for resources - because memberships equal money for an AFL club!
2014 AFL Membership numbers
1. Collingwood 80, 793
2. Hawthorn 68, 650
3. Richmond 66, 797
4. Essendon 60, 646
5. West Coast (Perth) 58, 529
6. Adelaide 57, 500
7. Port Adelaide 55, 508
8. Fremantle 48, 777
9. Carlton 47, 485
10. Geelong 43, 803
11. Sydney 40, 126
12. North Melbourne 39, 060
13. Melbourne 35, 911
14. Western Bulldogs 31, 814
15. St. Kilda 30, 138
16. Brisbane Lions 24, 032
17. Gold Coast 13, 480
18. Greater W. Sydney 13, 258
A couple of thoughts about this - the big Melbourne clubs sit in spots one through four, followed by the western four teams (Adelaide and Perth/Fremantle) in spots five through eight. The two newest teams are mired in last with just 13,ooo members each, which hampers how fast they can grow. Even as bad as the Demons have been, and as badly as their fans have deservedly treated them, their status as an original Melbourne club keeps them afloat with 35,000 members, while the two east coast teams (Brisbane and GC) together barely surpass that total despite both being significantly more successful.
Translation - Footy is still a Melbourne (state of Victoria) sport, no matter how enthusiastic the supporters in the other states are at times. The big money is going to be in Victoria.
Anyway, in Australia, the teams have membership drives, and if you're a member of the footy club, you not only have the equivalent of season tickets (depending on how much you pay, I assume), but road game privileges as well (a certain number of seats are set aside for your opponent's members at games), team "swag", and voting rights for the team's budget and direction. You really ARE a member of the team.
Here's a report on the membership drives for each of the eighteen teams, but I'll write a quick synopsis of the numbers from 2014 so you can get a feel for what each team has for resources - because memberships equal money for an AFL club!
2014 AFL Membership numbers
1. Collingwood 80, 793
2. Hawthorn 68, 650
3. Richmond 66, 797
4. Essendon 60, 646
5. West Coast (Perth) 58, 529
6. Adelaide 57, 500
7. Port Adelaide 55, 508
8. Fremantle 48, 777
9. Carlton 47, 485
10. Geelong 43, 803
11. Sydney 40, 126
12. North Melbourne 39, 060
13. Melbourne 35, 911
14. Western Bulldogs 31, 814
15. St. Kilda 30, 138
16. Brisbane Lions 24, 032
17. Gold Coast 13, 480
18. Greater W. Sydney 13, 258
A couple of thoughts about this - the big Melbourne clubs sit in spots one through four, followed by the western four teams (Adelaide and Perth/Fremantle) in spots five through eight. The two newest teams are mired in last with just 13,ooo members each, which hampers how fast they can grow. Even as bad as the Demons have been, and as badly as their fans have deservedly treated them, their status as an original Melbourne club keeps them afloat with 35,000 members, while the two east coast teams (Brisbane and GC) together barely surpass that total despite both being significantly more successful.
Translation - Footy is still a Melbourne (state of Victoria) sport, no matter how enthusiastic the supporters in the other states are at times. The big money is going to be in Victoria.
How the NFL Super Bowl affects the AFL Grand Final...
Here's an interesting piece of effluvia... The AFL head man, Gillon McLachlan, came to America to watch the Super Bowl in person, and came away with the thought that seeing Katy Perry under the lights is more fun than watching her in the daytime would be.
Currently, the Grand Final is always played in the middle of the afternoon, a daytime game, and it's been that way forever. But with the impetus from the AFL CEO, and the motivation of the newly installed lighting system at the Melbourne Cricket Grounds (the MCG - "the home of footy", where the Grand Final is played every year), the start of a conversation is there now to change the way the Grand Final looks after the current TV contract expires in 2016.
What do YOU think? Should the AFL move their premiere event to prime time? (For us here in Idaho, that puts it at 4 in the morning, instead of 10 at night...no bueno for Americans...) Let us know in the comments!
Currently, the Grand Final is always played in the middle of the afternoon, a daytime game, and it's been that way forever. But with the impetus from the AFL CEO, and the motivation of the newly installed lighting system at the Melbourne Cricket Grounds (the MCG - "the home of footy", where the Grand Final is played every year), the start of a conversation is there now to change the way the Grand Final looks after the current TV contract expires in 2016.
What do YOU think? Should the AFL move their premiere event to prime time? (For us here in Idaho, that puts it at 4 in the morning, instead of 10 at night...no bueno for Americans...) Let us know in the comments!
Thursday, February 12, 2015
More on the concussion front...
You may or may not remember Jesse Freitas, who was an NFL QB in the 1970's. His post-football life mirrored that of many of the former players whose deaths have revealed the kind of head trauma found in patients with SEVERE head trauma over the course of YEARS.
Our hope is that the family of Mr. Freitas, who was found dead "in a parked car" yesterday, will allow the examination of his brain to see if someone of an older generation, as well as someone who did not play a line position, would have the same kind of damage - and frankly, his behavior following his football career warrants that attention.
Our hope is that the family of Mr. Freitas, who was found dead "in a parked car" yesterday, will allow the examination of his brain to see if someone of an older generation, as well as someone who did not play a line position, would have the same kind of damage - and frankly, his behavior following his football career warrants that attention.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
I know this is a football blog, but Jerry Tarkanian deserves a moment of our time.
The legendary college basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian - "Tark the Shark" - died this morning
Dan Wetzel writes a great piece that encapsulates the man succinctly and in detail (if that's not a contradiction!) for Yahoo Sports. He was, as coach famously said once, who we thought he was...fiercely competitive, win at almost all costs, fiercely loyal to his players, and he didn't care what they looked like, even in the sixties: white, black, green or purple.
This afternoon, chew a towel for Tark.
Dan Wetzel writes a great piece that encapsulates the man succinctly and in detail (if that's not a contradiction!) for Yahoo Sports. He was, as coach famously said once, who we thought he was...fiercely competitive, win at almost all costs, fiercely loyal to his players, and he didn't care what they looked like, even in the sixties: white, black, green or purple.
This afternoon, chew a towel for Tark.
The elephant in the room Down Under.
Looming over the heads of everyone at the Essendon Bombers footy club of the AFL is the ongoing investigation by the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Agency (ASADA) of the misuse of "supplements" (i.e., steroids and similar drugs) during the 2012 season.
In 2013, the team was banned from the playoffs the week before the playoffs started (Carlton was the most surprised finalist in the history of sports, having been out of the playoff chase for weeks before that ruling!). In 2014, the coach and "alleged mastermind", James Hird, served a one-year suspension from footy for his role, and was replaced very capably by fellow club legend "Bomber" Thompson (can't go wrong when your nickname is the team's mascot!). Following the season, there was a frankly-ludicrous little dance where everyone involved picked sides over whether to bring Hird back as promised or cut ties with a 'criminal' and keep Thompson as coach; neither man dignified himself in the process, and eventually Bomber walked away.
Hird, however, kept suing ASADA, even after the Australian court system had verified the legality of every step they'd taken along the way, including serving notices to 34 current and (some now) former Essendon players who may have competed illegally, possibly without their knowledge - and there's the rub. As they used to say about President Nixon here in the US, what did you know and when did you know it? If they literally did NOT know anything illicit was happening, ASADA's promised not to be harsh on them...conversely, knowing accomplices face the kind of penalties drug users in the Olympics typically get, meaning the likely end of their athletic careers.
Here's a piece on the current leg of this controversy, specifically whether those players on the current Essendon roster who are under an active investigation by ASADA should or would be allowed to play in the pre-season games, starting for the Bombers on March 7th in Morwell, Australia, against St. Kilda. (Interestingly, the AFL scheduled Essendon to be the last team to start playing this fall, knowing this issue needed time.) The effect on Essendon this year is hard to predict - even with all the chaos surrounding them in 2014, they still finished in 7th, the same position they finished the previous year when their finals spot was taken away.
Stewart Crameri, a star player for Western who was with Essendon in 2012, also has a ban on him that's affecting how the Bulldogs are preparing for the season.
Stewart Crameri, a star player for Western who was with Essendon in 2012, also has a ban on him that's affecting how the Bulldogs are preparing for the season.
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
We know preseason scores in the NFL don't matter...
...but what about Aussie Rules? I spent the evening digging into the last decade or so, and came up with an interesting conclusion about the three game pre-season about to begin down under:
The first game is random...but pay CLOSE attention to the second and third games!
There have been a couple of different formats over the last few years, mostly for fan interest, but the result was the same: the teams that looked good over the LAST TWO GAMES looked good in the season as well, and problems in those games didn't just "go away" when the lights came on. Even when the forecasts were wrong (like with Sydney last year), it was because the team really DID look like that, but changed as the season progressed (the Swans starter 1-3, and then figured out how to use their new superstar and won 12 in a row en route to the Grand Final), or injuries took them down (see: Gold Coast and Collingwood last season).
So...We'll stick with our ratings and predictions from the previous post UNTIL the end of March, when we've had our chance to see the teams play games B and C (eh, Canucks?), and then PLACE OUR BETS!
The first game is random...but pay CLOSE attention to the second and third games!
There have been a couple of different formats over the last few years, mostly for fan interest, but the result was the same: the teams that looked good over the LAST TWO GAMES looked good in the season as well, and problems in those games didn't just "go away" when the lights came on. Even when the forecasts were wrong (like with Sydney last year), it was because the team really DID look like that, but changed as the season progressed (the Swans starter 1-3, and then figured out how to use their new superstar and won 12 in a row en route to the Grand Final), or injuries took them down (see: Gold Coast and Collingwood last season).
So...We'll stick with our ratings and predictions from the previous post UNTIL the end of March, when we've had our chance to see the teams play games B and C (eh, Canucks?), and then PLACE OUR BETS!
And here's the way the FF rating system will start the pre-season...
Now, it needs to be said that pre-season games are NOT the same as regular or post season games: the teams aren't nearly as interested as usual in winning the game at hand, but rather developing the best team in order to win the games "that count". But there will be some indications during the NAB Challenge from February 26 through the end of March, indications that will help show how certain young players are developing, how new 'employees' fit in with the rest of their new teammates, what the needs are that may or may not have been apparent until the entire team's on the field together, how a new coach or system works in a particular situation, how age or injury is affecting key players, and so forth. For that reason, we at Following Football reserve the right to adjust ratings to a small extent to compensate for those variances. (And we'll do the same thing for American football in the summer.)
Having said that, here's our starting point for the 2015 Australian Football League Season, and some initial predictions about the direction those numbers might move:
Hawthorn Hawks - 81.6 ..........The defenders didn't hurt themselves this summer! (up)
Sydney Swans - 77.7..................Trade issues, devastating loss in GF could hurt. (down)
Port Adelaide Power - 71.7......A team on the rise who got a new great player. (up!).
Fremantle Dockers - 70.3.......Made some positive moves and some not so good. (<--->).
Adelaide Crows - 63.4..............Great new players but 5th? With a new coach? (down).
N. Melbourne Kangaroos - 62.8...Good moves, but their best player's 37 years old.... (<---->).
West Coast Eagles- 62.3...........We say this every year, but then they've fallen short. (<---->)
Geelong Cats - 61.8...................Is this the year they come back to the pack? Maybe. (<-->)
Richmond Tigers - 55.1...........Richmond's rated ninth right now - as always! (<----->)
Essendon Bombers - 53.7.......How can the ASADA scandal NOT hurt them? (down)
Gold Coast Suns - 43.9............With Gary Ablett Jr. healthy, they were already a finals team. (up!)
Carlton Blues - 40.7.................The Blues lost top player but mediocre was ceiling. (<--->)
Collingwood Magpies - 40.2..Hard to imagine most popular team this far down. (<--->)
Western Bulldogs - 31.4...........Lots of new talentplus improving youngsters from '14. (up!)
Brisbane Lions - 26.4..............Offseason was a HUGE positive for the Lions! (up)
GWS Giants - 26.3....................See Bulldogs comment, and copy for the next 3 years! (up)
Melbourne Demons - 20.2......Lots of new blood, but has the culture of losing changed? (up?)
St. Kilda Saints - 10.5...............This is awfully low; yet somehow, the Saints may hit it. (<--->)
Here's the hard part: there are seven ups and three downs, but it's a net zero system, meaning whenever one team goes up a point, another team goes DOWN a point, so that the total rating is always 50 points per team (900.0). SO...just assume like all predictions, this one's not entirely accurate! (Besides, it'll change as pre-season moves on.)
Having said that, here's our starting point for the 2015 Australian Football League Season, and some initial predictions about the direction those numbers might move:
Hawthorn Hawks - 81.6 ..........The defenders didn't hurt themselves this summer! (up)
Sydney Swans - 77.7..................Trade issues, devastating loss in GF could hurt. (down)
Port Adelaide Power - 71.7......A team on the rise who got a new great player. (up!).
Fremantle Dockers - 70.3.......Made some positive moves and some not so good. (<--->).
Adelaide Crows - 63.4..............Great new players but 5th? With a new coach? (down).
N. Melbourne Kangaroos - 62.8...Good moves, but their best player's 37 years old.... (<---->).
West Coast Eagles- 62.3...........We say this every year, but then they've fallen short. (<---->)
Geelong Cats - 61.8...................Is this the year they come back to the pack? Maybe. (<-->)
Richmond Tigers - 55.1...........Richmond's rated ninth right now - as always! (<----->)
Essendon Bombers - 53.7.......How can the ASADA scandal NOT hurt them? (down)
Gold Coast Suns - 43.9............With Gary Ablett Jr. healthy, they were already a finals team. (up!)
Carlton Blues - 40.7.................The Blues lost top player but mediocre was ceiling. (<--->)
Collingwood Magpies - 40.2..Hard to imagine most popular team this far down. (<--->)
Western Bulldogs - 31.4...........Lots of new talentplus improving youngsters from '14. (up!)
Brisbane Lions - 26.4..............Offseason was a HUGE positive for the Lions! (up)
GWS Giants - 26.3....................See Bulldogs comment, and copy for the next 3 years! (up)
Melbourne Demons - 20.2......Lots of new blood, but has the culture of losing changed? (up?)
St. Kilda Saints - 10.5...............This is awfully low; yet somehow, the Saints may hit it. (<--->)
Here's the hard part: there are seven ups and three downs, but it's a net zero system, meaning whenever one team goes up a point, another team goes DOWN a point, so that the total rating is always 50 points per team (900.0). SO...just assume like all predictions, this one's not entirely accurate! (Besides, it'll change as pre-season moves on.)
Go to www.afl.com.au for all your AFL information!!
The AFL pre-season is just TWO WEEKS AWAY!
(Can you tell I'm excited?)
We'll be previewing all eighteen teams during the four week, three game per team preseason, and providing our predictions, rating system, and player information about the 2015 AFL season to come.
As a starting point, though, here's where we left off last season:
GRAND FINAL: Hawthorn Hawks def. Sydney Swans, 137-74.
Preliminary Finals: Hawthorn def. Port Adelaide Power, 97-94; Sydney def. North Melbourne Kangaroos, 136-65.
Semi-Finals: Port Adelaide def. Fremantle Dockers, 105-83; No. Melbourne def. Geelong Cats, 98-92.
Qualifying Finals (losers played winners of the Elimination finals; winners got a bye into Prelim Finals): Hawthorn def. Geelong, 104-68; Sydney def. Fremantle, 93-69.
Elimination Finals: No. Melbourne def. Essendon Bombers, 93-81; Port Adelaide def. Richmond Tigers, 132-75.
Final Standings for the "home-and-away" season:
W L T % (points scored/points allowed)
Sydney 17 5 0 142.9
Hawthorn 17 5 0 140.8
Geelong 17 5 0 113.8
Fremantle 16 6 0 130.4
Port Adelaide 14 8 0 129.9
No. Melbourne 14 8 0 117.0
Essendon 12 9 1 106.3
Richmond 12 10 0 105.8
West Coast 11 11 0 116.9
Adelaide 11 11 0 114.1
Collingwood 11 11 0 94.1
Gold Coast 10 12 0 93.7
Carlton 7 14 1 89.7
Western Bulldogs 7 15 0 81.3
Brisbane Lions 7 15 0 69.3
Gr. Wst. Sydney 6 16 0 76.7
Melbourne 4 18 0 68.4
St. Kilda 4 18 0 60.8
One of the nicest innovations the AFL has that I'm highly in favor of for other leagues concerns their tiebreaking system - the % figure on the right, which is a ratio of points scored to points allowed. (So, if you allowed the same number of points as you scored, your % would be 100.0, meaning you scored 100.0% of the number of points you allowed. If you have 120.0%, that means you score 120 points for every 100 your opponents score - a pretty good indicator that you should be a winning team.)
You'll notice that even though the top three teams all went 17-5, Sydney and Hawthorn were dominating competition, averaging over 7 points for every 5 their opponents managed. Meanwhile, despite the record, Geelong had only 113.8%, which means they won a lot of "squeakers", got blown out once or twice, and generally had a harder time than their adversaries above them. That put them in the #3 seed, and sure enough, they lost twice and were eliminated, while the other two met in the Grand Final. It's a great way to separate good from lucky, although it's not perfect. But there's absolutely NO complaints about the system that I've ever heard, even when a team's beaten someone above them on the ladder because of percentage.
Looking ahead, sometimes that percentage tells you who's "better" than their record, and in this case, I'm looking at both West Coast and Greater Western Sydney to move up in 2015 because of that. You'd think Geelong would drop, but lots of betters have lost money waiting for that to happen over the years! Richmond and Essendon might be vulnerable, and Collingwood also should be on notice.
We'll be previewing all eighteen teams during the four week, three game per team preseason, and providing our predictions, rating system, and player information about the 2015 AFL season to come.
As a starting point, though, here's where we left off last season:
GRAND FINAL: Hawthorn Hawks def. Sydney Swans, 137-74.
Preliminary Finals: Hawthorn def. Port Adelaide Power, 97-94; Sydney def. North Melbourne Kangaroos, 136-65.
Semi-Finals: Port Adelaide def. Fremantle Dockers, 105-83; No. Melbourne def. Geelong Cats, 98-92.
Qualifying Finals (losers played winners of the Elimination finals; winners got a bye into Prelim Finals): Hawthorn def. Geelong, 104-68; Sydney def. Fremantle, 93-69.
Elimination Finals: No. Melbourne def. Essendon Bombers, 93-81; Port Adelaide def. Richmond Tigers, 132-75.
Final Standings for the "home-and-away" season:
W L T % (points scored/points allowed)
Sydney 17 5 0 142.9
Hawthorn 17 5 0 140.8
Geelong 17 5 0 113.8
Fremantle 16 6 0 130.4
Port Adelaide 14 8 0 129.9
No. Melbourne 14 8 0 117.0
Essendon 12 9 1 106.3
Richmond 12 10 0 105.8
West Coast 11 11 0 116.9
Adelaide 11 11 0 114.1
Collingwood 11 11 0 94.1
Gold Coast 10 12 0 93.7
Carlton 7 14 1 89.7
Western Bulldogs 7 15 0 81.3
Brisbane Lions 7 15 0 69.3
Gr. Wst. Sydney 6 16 0 76.7
Melbourne 4 18 0 68.4
St. Kilda 4 18 0 60.8
One of the nicest innovations the AFL has that I'm highly in favor of for other leagues concerns their tiebreaking system - the % figure on the right, which is a ratio of points scored to points allowed. (So, if you allowed the same number of points as you scored, your % would be 100.0, meaning you scored 100.0% of the number of points you allowed. If you have 120.0%, that means you score 120 points for every 100 your opponents score - a pretty good indicator that you should be a winning team.)
You'll notice that even though the top three teams all went 17-5, Sydney and Hawthorn were dominating competition, averaging over 7 points for every 5 their opponents managed. Meanwhile, despite the record, Geelong had only 113.8%, which means they won a lot of "squeakers", got blown out once or twice, and generally had a harder time than their adversaries above them. That put them in the #3 seed, and sure enough, they lost twice and were eliminated, while the other two met in the Grand Final. It's a great way to separate good from lucky, although it's not perfect. But there's absolutely NO complaints about the system that I've ever heard, even when a team's beaten someone above them on the ladder because of percentage.
Looking ahead, sometimes that percentage tells you who's "better" than their record, and in this case, I'm looking at both West Coast and Greater Western Sydney to move up in 2015 because of that. You'd think Geelong would drop, but lots of betters have lost money waiting for that to happen over the years! Richmond and Essendon might be vulnerable, and Collingwood also should be on notice.
How STUPID are the combines?
Ryan O'Hanlon of Grantland nails it on the head with this "hypothetical" piece on the draft process and Oregon QB Marcus Mariota - a man who was the consensus BEST quarterback in the draft all season (you know, when they were actually playing games?), but now that we're playing with the numbers instead of watching them actually play football, it's more a Jamies Winston crowd out there.
Let's write this down right now - February 10th, 2015: Mariota will have a better career than Winston. However you choose to define it - starts, yards, success, lack of arrests, whatever... As O'Hanlon points out, this is exactly what happened to Teddy Bridgewater last year (consensus #1 all season, fell to the bottom of the first round, was still the most successful of the rookie QBs last year) and Aaron Rodgers a few years back (same scenario, dropped to #22 and the Packers, and he turned out all right...).
Let's write this down right now - February 10th, 2015: Mariota will have a better career than Winston. However you choose to define it - starts, yards, success, lack of arrests, whatever... As O'Hanlon points out, this is exactly what happened to Teddy Bridgewater last year (consensus #1 all season, fell to the bottom of the first round, was still the most successful of the rookie QBs last year) and Aaron Rodgers a few years back (same scenario, dropped to #22 and the Packers, and he turned out all right...).
Saturday, February 7, 2015
A few last thoughts on a SUPER championship game last Sunday..
...before we move on to the Australian Footy season and the off-season, 12-month-per-year business that IS the NFL in the 21st century:
It really was a fantastic game. There were rarely moments when you weren't wondering, what's going to happen next? A defensive struggle in the beginning, but one that New England's "winning", belying the idea that Seattle's defense would shut them down...then a Patriot lead, then a great fifty second drive by Russell Wilson ending with a pass to the end zone with two seconds to go in the half (foreshadowing the end of the game?). Throughout that half, the tension and the skill levels demonstrated, PLUS the storylines that developed (especially the depletion of Seattle's already hurting secondary) that we knew would play important factors in the second half (of a tie game!), made for an incredibly entertaining (and fast!) first half.
Katy Perry (and unnecessary friends) was a win - tight show, hit the high points, spectacular effects, added some fuel to her PR war with Taylor Swift, and made #leftshark a trending thing. The giant lion/tiger/Japanese puppetry thing she rode in on was super cool.
The second half was even better than the first - the back and forth feel, the Seahawks taking the ten point lead, but not in a way that made you think the Patriots were done. And then - touchdown, stop, touchdown, all amazing drives, and all forgotten now because of the last Seattle attempt to score...
Read Bill Simmons' retro-diary in Grantland for the best recounting of that entire sequence, although you have to remember he's a tremendous Patriot homer. But a few things stand out to me, even now - the time out situation, on both sides but especially Seattle's; the second try at the turnaround pass at the goal line by Brady; the timing of the 2-minute warning; the 31-yd out pass to Lynch on a linebacker to start a drive; and of course, the miraculous off-the-thigh catch by Kearse that (had they lost) Belechick would have been seeing in his nightmares (my favorite line of the press conferences: when some reporter asked coach Bill if he'd ever seen a catch like that before, he deadpanned: "Yes. Twice." - referring to the two Giants miracle catches that beat his teams the prior two Super Bowls.)
And yes, I'm still completely convinced that the play call of a slant pass at the goal line was a GOOD call; Malcolm Butler simply made a GREAT play based on GREAT film study and coaching. By the way, Simmons makes a good case, following this article from the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, that Belechick's LACK of timeout there before that play was smart, too. I'm not as convinced of this one, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
In the end, here's one of my major takeaways from a close Super Bowl like that: if one or two plays go differently, legacies are changed. If Seattle scores that TD, Brady and Belechick still haven't won since 2004, and they're merely a good champion whose time passed....Seattle is a two-time champion who beat Manning and Brady back to back, and becomes a legendary defense....and neither of those things had anything to do with the people on the field at the pivotal play of the game! Regardless of the outcome, these were (and are) two incredible teams, and deserve that kind of recognition. Play the game again this week, maybe Seattle wins, maybe New England blows them out - but it's not important. Praise and treasure them for what they are!
It really was a fantastic game. There were rarely moments when you weren't wondering, what's going to happen next? A defensive struggle in the beginning, but one that New England's "winning", belying the idea that Seattle's defense would shut them down...then a Patriot lead, then a great fifty second drive by Russell Wilson ending with a pass to the end zone with two seconds to go in the half (foreshadowing the end of the game?). Throughout that half, the tension and the skill levels demonstrated, PLUS the storylines that developed (especially the depletion of Seattle's already hurting secondary) that we knew would play important factors in the second half (of a tie game!), made for an incredibly entertaining (and fast!) first half.
Katy Perry (and unnecessary friends) was a win - tight show, hit the high points, spectacular effects, added some fuel to her PR war with Taylor Swift, and made #leftshark a trending thing. The giant lion/tiger/Japanese puppetry thing she rode in on was super cool.
The second half was even better than the first - the back and forth feel, the Seahawks taking the ten point lead, but not in a way that made you think the Patriots were done. And then - touchdown, stop, touchdown, all amazing drives, and all forgotten now because of the last Seattle attempt to score...
Read Bill Simmons' retro-diary in Grantland for the best recounting of that entire sequence, although you have to remember he's a tremendous Patriot homer. But a few things stand out to me, even now - the time out situation, on both sides but especially Seattle's; the second try at the turnaround pass at the goal line by Brady; the timing of the 2-minute warning; the 31-yd out pass to Lynch on a linebacker to start a drive; and of course, the miraculous off-the-thigh catch by Kearse that (had they lost) Belechick would have been seeing in his nightmares (my favorite line of the press conferences: when some reporter asked coach Bill if he'd ever seen a catch like that before, he deadpanned: "Yes. Twice." - referring to the two Giants miracle catches that beat his teams the prior two Super Bowls.)
And yes, I'm still completely convinced that the play call of a slant pass at the goal line was a GOOD call; Malcolm Butler simply made a GREAT play based on GREAT film study and coaching. By the way, Simmons makes a good case, following this article from the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, that Belechick's LACK of timeout there before that play was smart, too. I'm not as convinced of this one, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
In the end, here's one of my major takeaways from a close Super Bowl like that: if one or two plays go differently, legacies are changed. If Seattle scores that TD, Brady and Belechick still haven't won since 2004, and they're merely a good champion whose time passed....Seattle is a two-time champion who beat Manning and Brady back to back, and becomes a legendary defense....and neither of those things had anything to do with the people on the field at the pivotal play of the game! Regardless of the outcome, these were (and are) two incredible teams, and deserve that kind of recognition. Play the game again this week, maybe Seattle wins, maybe New England blows them out - but it's not important. Praise and treasure them for what they are!
Wednesday, February 4, 2015
It's National Signing Day!
Yippee.
I'll confess that, even as a football junkie, 'guru', fanatic, whatever, the process of recruiting and signing 17 and 18 year old boys to letters of intent to attend and perform athletically at the university of their choice holds little or no interest for me.
I don't know these youngsters.
I have no insight into any of the specifics of any school's recruiting process.
I have heard the horror stories.
And I'm a very PollyAnna-ish person when it comes to football in particular. I'm intentionally and blatantly naive about the underbelly of college football because I know that if I weren't, I'd have turned it off my radar long ago. There are members of the fifth estate who spend enough time digging for the dirt on these situations, and I have faith that they will uncover anything particularly egregious.
But more than anything, I just don't have any interest in what goes on off the field. When those kids get to game number one and they're on the field, then I'll talk about them...
I'll confess that, even as a football junkie, 'guru', fanatic, whatever, the process of recruiting and signing 17 and 18 year old boys to letters of intent to attend and perform athletically at the university of their choice holds little or no interest for me.
I don't know these youngsters.
I have no insight into any of the specifics of any school's recruiting process.
I have heard the horror stories.
And I'm a very PollyAnna-ish person when it comes to football in particular. I'm intentionally and blatantly naive about the underbelly of college football because I know that if I weren't, I'd have turned it off my radar long ago. There are members of the fifth estate who spend enough time digging for the dirt on these situations, and I have faith that they will uncover anything particularly egregious.
But more than anything, I just don't have any interest in what goes on off the field. When those kids get to game number one and they're on the field, then I'll talk about them...
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
A terrible impression left by Seattle receiver Doug Baldwin
Doug Baldwin, arguably the best wide receiver on the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks, is rapidly losing the respect of the football community for his non-performance behavior, and it's not hard to understand why.
This didn't show up on NBC's broadcast, thankfully, but after Baldwin's TD catch in the third quarter, he made an initial, instinctive celebration that was reasonable and appropriate, and that was shown. During the cutaway, when we were looking at coaches or whomever, Baldwin decided that the most impressive thing he could do while he had the attention of the nation was "pop a squat" and look like he was defecating the football onto the ground. (I'm not about to link that photo. Google it if you must.)
Now, Peter King reports in his MMQB mailbag that Baldwin considered the media's "respect" for him more important than practicing for the Super Bowl with his team:
This didn't show up on NBC's broadcast, thankfully, but after Baldwin's TD catch in the third quarter, he made an initial, instinctive celebration that was reasonable and appropriate, and that was shown. During the cutaway, when we were looking at coaches or whomever, Baldwin decided that the most impressive thing he could do while he had the attention of the nation was "pop a squat" and look like he was defecating the football onto the ground. (I'm not about to link that photo. Google it if you must.)
Now, Peter King reports in his MMQB mailbag that Baldwin considered the media's "respect" for him more important than practicing for the Super Bowl with his team:
At the risk of making this all about me, I’m going to make this all about me. Last week, I was the pool reporter for the Pro Football Writers of America covering Seattle Seahawks practices. I was standing on the sidelines of practice Friday, inside the Arizona State University football practice bubble, when, after a play was run, Doug Baldwin strode over to me until he was right in front of me. He was not happy. He said angrily: “You’re into this mediocre receiver s—, right? I read your s—.”
What? Huh? I truly didn’t know what he was talking about.
Baldwin had anger in his eyes. “You’re one of them!” he said. “I read your s—.”
With that, he walked back to practice. Here’s a starting NFL receiver, during a Super Bowl practice, interrupting his role in this workout to come over to a sportswriter to rip him.
This is apparently what Baldwin was referring to, from last week’s Monday Morning Quarterback column, after Baldwin had lost a fumble, dropped a pass, and caught six balls in the NFC Championship Game win over Green Bay. I wrote: “Stop, just stop, Seahawks, with the we-don’t-get-no-respect rants. It’s unbecoming. Doug Baldwin, you’re a good player. But that stuff gets old. Very old, particularly when you and Jermaine Kearse miss balls early, make some plays late, then somehow get motivated against the doubters. Whatever all that means.”
Baldwin did something so distasteful after scoring in the Super Bowl that NBC wouldn’t even air the complete replay of his catch and “celebration.”
He should spend less time finding phony ways to motivate himself and more time learning what adulthood is like.
Monday, February 2, 2015
More smart people who agree with me...
Here's the analysis from Five Thirty Eight, the statistical geek arm of ESPN, that backs up my belief that Pete Carroll's play call was completely reasonable at the end of the game...
Mike Sando had the perfect stat for the situation in my opinion, explaining why Carroll's choice wasn't that risky:
And, if Wilson didn't have an open receiver in that scenario - do you really think he was going to get sacked? When all he had to do was chuck it into the stands? Or run around (which, I'm told, he's pretty good at...)?
And by the way - what about that Jermaine Kearse acrobatic catch that led to the game-ending situation? If you didn't think of David Tyree in that situation, you don't empathize with Patriot fans...
Talk about a dramatic turnaround!
Bill Barnwell's other takeaway from that play was the massive turnaround in fortunes it provided - here's the link to his article again, but the essential part is as follows:
An Epic Swing
In terms of one play swinging a team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl, the second-down interception was probably the most important in the history of the NFL. Burke’s Advanced Football Analytics model suggested after the game that the Patriots’ chances of winning jumped from 12 percent before the interception to 99 percent afterward, for a swing of 87 percentage points. It’s difficult for one play in any context to shift things that dramatically.
The Mike Jones tackle of Kevin Dyson at the 1-yard line in Super Bowl XXXIV came to mind, but that was a 23-16 game; even if Dyson had gotten in, Tennessee’s chances of winning would have risen only to about 50 percent, since the two teams would have gone to overtime (or Tennessee would have attempted a two-pointer, which would also have put its chances of winning near 50 percent). The most meaningful play before this one was probably Scott Norwood’s missed 47-yard field goal in a 20-19 game at the end of Super Bowl XXV, but there’s no way he had an 87 percent chance of making the game-winning field goal to begin with, so even reducing Buffalo’s chances to zero wouldn’t match Wilson’s interception.
Watching the emotions on the faces of the sideline people in particular was amazing - especially Tom Brady, for whom the game had a redemptive quality beyond that of "normal" players. It's what makes football such a joy to watch - other sports don't do that. Much more rarely do you see a turnaround like that in basketball (game 6 of the first Miami/SanAntonio finals comes to mind), baseball (Bill Buckner comes to mind), or hockey (nothing comes to mind...), let alone soccer. The ratio of points to number of scores is what causes it - a seven point/one score turnaround made this game go from 12% to 99%. Also, plays are distinctive events in football, not so much in soccer or hockey, or even in basketball on most occasions. We'll re-run certain plays in our mind (and on video) over and over again.
Upon further review, I disagree with the world.
Ian O'Connor's piece this morning in ESPN sums up the consensus opinion of the sports world on the play call heard 'round the world, that Pete Carroll had the intelligence of a vegetable to call a pass play on the one yard line with thirty seconds to go in the Super Bowl when he had Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch available in the backfield. However, I argue that it was a perfectly acceptable call, and had it worked (or even just fallen incomplete) even a brilliant call under the circumstances. Bill Barnwell articulates this position in Grantland this morning, and as usual does so in more and clearer detail than I could:
Breaking Down “The Decision”
You can understand why Carroll might be afraid of getting burned in what seemed like a hopeless situation for the opposition, because you only have to go back to Seattle’s last playoff loss to remember how quickly things can swing. That was during the 2012 playoffs, when the Seahawks came back from a 27-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to take a 28-27 lead with 34 seconds to go. In that game, the Seahawks handed the ball to Lynch on first-and-goal from the 2-yard line, and he immediately scored.
Despite the stunning comeback, Atlanta got the ball back with two timeouts, completed a pair of passes, and got a 49-yard field goal from Matt Bryant to win the game. The Packers, furthermore, responded to another huge Seattle comeback by taking over with 1:19 left and driving for a game-tying field goal in the NFC Championship Game. I’m not arguing that Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell should have been so time-conscious as to basically waste second down on a pass play. But I can understand why they would be overly sensitive about leaving too much time on the clock.
If you’re thinking about the game coming down to those three plays, you can also piece together a case that second down is the best time to throw the ball. As Wilson took that fateful second-down snap, there were 26 seconds left and Seattle had one timeout. Let’s pretend for a moment that the Seahawks decide to run the ball on second down. If they don’t get it, they have to call timeout, probably with about 22 seconds left. That means they’re stuck passing on third down with virtually no chance of running the ball, because it would be too difficult to line up after a failed run.
On the other hand, by throwing on second down, you could get two cracks at running the football while providing some semblance of doubt for the Patriots. If Wilson’s pass on second down is incomplete (and he avoids a sack, which seems likely given his ability to scramble), the clock stops with something like 20 seconds to go. That means you can run the ball on third down, use your final timeout, and then run the ball again on fourth down. All three plays come with the possibility of either throwing or running, which prevents the Patriots from selling out against one particular type of play.
You might argue that the logic there doesn’t include the danger of throwing the football and the downside of an interception, and that’s true, but there are negative possibilities in every play call. In fact, this season it was more dangerous to run the football from the 1-yard line than it was to throw it. Before Sunday, NFL teams had thrown the ball 108 times on the opposing team’s 1-yard line this season. Those passes had produced 66 touchdowns (a success rate of 61.1 percent, down to 59.5 percent when you throw in three sacks) and zero interceptions. The 223 running plays had generated 129 touchdowns (a 57.8 percent success rate) and two turnovers on fumbles.
Carroll claimed after the game that the Patriots were in their goal-line package and that the Seahawks, who came out with three wide receivers, were right to throw the ball and basically waste a play against a mismatch of personnel. I’m not sure I see that, and Belichick confirmed as much after the game. The Patriots did line up with a combination of eight defensive linemen and linebackers in the box, seven of whom were on the line of scrimmage at the snap, but they also played three cornerbacks — Malcolm Butler, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Browner — against Seattle’s three wideouts.
Rookie cornerback Butler did a great job of breaking on the slant for what will surely be the biggest interception of his life. As you can see from Sheil Kapadia’s tweet below, Butler had a lot of work to do to break up the pass once the ball was in the air, let alone actually make the interception:
The thing about the INT is Seattle got what it wanted with play-call. Unbelievable break on the ball by Butler.
The space you see in the screenshot makes Ricardo Lockette seem more open than he actually is — Butler has already identified on the route and he’s going to drive on the football — but it’s not as if Wilson made a dangerous throw into traffic. If the Seahawks really wanted to waste a play, as Carroll was suggesting, Wilson could have thrown this into the ground or thrown it through the back of the end zone. He didn’t because they got the exact look they were hoping for.
In terms of execution, I’d assign more blame to Lockette, who got beaten to the spot and knocked to the ground by Butler, a player Lockette outweighs by 20 pounds. As galvanizing as it’s been over the past 12 months for the Seattle wide receivers to contrast their no-name status with their success, this was a game when the team’s need to upgrade at receiver was clear.
So, that's where I think Carroll was justified in his play calling. Barnwell goes on to argue, however, that given the porous Patriot run defense and Lynch's unstoppability at the time, it was still a "subpar decision". I'm not so sure I agree.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
SUPER BOWL XLIX LIVE BLOG!
9:10 pm: THANKS FOR PLAYING ALONG, BOYS AND GIRLS! And remember, there's only four weeks to go until pre-season Australian Football begins! G'night!
8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.
8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.
8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!
8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?
7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,
7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?
7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...
7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).
7:15 pm:
7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
Fourth quarter about to begin...
7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.
6:55 pm:
Charean Williams
6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)
6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....
6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...
6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.
5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.
5:43 pm:
5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.
5:30 pm:
5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)
4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.
4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.
4:40 pm: And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....
4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?
4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with?
3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.
3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...
3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg
If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...
Marshawn Lynch asked if he's surprised he didn't get the football. Says "No." I ask him, Why not? Says, "Because football is a team sport."
-
This season, the Seahawks had the most rushing yards by an NFL team since 2006, and they threw a pass needing a yard for the Super Bowl.
8:20 pm: REPOSTING (the last one vanished into the ether!): to recap, Seattle gets down to a first and goal with a riDONKulous catch where Kearse has the ball knocked away, but it bounces off his thigh as he lies on the ground and he catches it. Marshawn Lynch runs it down to the one, thirty seconds left. Then, Carroll calls a slant pass pick play that rookie free agent DB Malcomb Butler reads and intercepts, landing back on the one, game over...except it isn't quite, because Brady can't quite just fall on it. However, superstud DE Michael Bennett jumps offsides...putting it on the six, eliminating the tension, and releasing the tension from the Seattle defense, who start a fight and mar the ending just a bit.
8:04 pm: And, Michael Bennett, are YOU kidding me? Offsides, in THAT situation? No wonder Irvin started throwing punches - if I was a Seattle player I'd be pissed, too.
8:02 pm: ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!
8:00 pm: Are you kidding me?
7:55 pm: Two minute warning. Seattle ball, midfield, down four. Just the way Russell Wilson probably dreamed about as a kid...and Brady's probably half-hoping they score so he can play out the same scenario..,
7:45 pm: Under three minutes to go - so if the Patriots score a TD from within the five here, the Seahawks will have three TO and plenty of time to go...but they'll be down four, and have to score a TD. Isn't this fun?
7:35 pm: Well, we were hoping for a close Super Bowl - and we got one. 24-21, Seahawks, but the Pats have the ball with about seven to go...
7:17 pm: No team has ever come back from a 3Q deficit of more than seven points, and the leading team is 38-9 (presumably there was one tie).
7:15 pm:
Super Bowl XLIX Photoblog: Halftime highlights
ESPN.comHere are some highlights from the Super Bowl XLIX halftime show featuring Katy Perry, Lenny Kravitz and Missy Elliott.7:13 pm: Well, my son is happy. The NFL just showed the My Little Pony crew cheering for football...
Fourth quarter about to begin...7:05 pm: Too late to go back on it now, but I did sort of renege on my Seattle pick at the beginning of this blog when I saw the hobbled Seattle secondary. What I failed to reckon with was (a) Tom Brady's inability to take advantage of that fact, partly because (b) Michael Bennett is a man among boys on the front line, rushing right through the NE line and getting pressure on Brady almost every time he goes back to pass. Meanwhile, they can't lay a finger on Russell Wilson, and he's up to 8/11, with one miss in the last nine passes.
6:55 pm:
Charean Williams
6:50 pm: Good move by Bill Belechick to move Browner onto the brand new uber-receiver Chris Matthews for Seattle - they're the same height, and he's got a much better shot at defending him than the shorter 4th cornerback who covered him in the first half. (And Matthews is SO novice that I've misspelled his name until now! These catches are his first in the NFL! He was the CFL rookie of the year, played two years up there.)
6:40 pm: Now, Seattle gets the ball first, marches downfield, kicks a FG and takes its first lead of Super Bowl 49. And Chris Matthews is becoming a Super Bowl legend....
6:20 pm: Gotta admit - Katy Perry's halftime show is spectacular...
6:00 pm: Here's the first decision that Football Analytics will talk about next week, and it pays off for Pete Carroll and Seattle - six seconds to go in the half, on the ten yard line. Almost every other coach kicks the FG; Carroll trusts his 25 year old QB not to blow the clock situation, and he doesn't: back shoulder throw in the FRONT left corner of the end zone to a tall receiver - touchdown, tie game at halftime, when any other team would have settled for being down 14-10.
5:50 pm: Again, Collinsworth nails it. Belechick knows the Seattle secondary is wounded. So he's got four wide just about all the time on offense, and the mismatches are starting to show up. Touchdown, Gronkowski. 14-7, New England Patriots. Chris points out that, amazingly, the Seattle interception by Lane may decide the game in New England's favor because his injury crippled the Seahawks and their secondary.
5:43 pm:
- NE defenders may be thinking there's 32 more minutes of Marshawn Lynch coming at them.
5:35 pm: Touchdown, Beastmode. Tie game, 7-7, after a long pass connection by Wilson (finally). We got a game.
5:30 pm:
- Paul McCartney in crowd. Probably thinks the Seahawks need to play betta betta betta
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Favorite5:05 pm: First quarter plus gone, zero-zero score. At this pace, it will be a zero-zero tie. (I did that math in my head.)
4:57 pm: talk about good news / bad news! For the Pats, an eight minute drive that ends in a frankly stupid throw from Brady, and for the Hawks, an interception for Jeremy Lane that ends in what looks like a game ending injury.
4:48 pm: Firstventure into foreign territory goes to New England - seven minutes in. So far, Pats look better than Hawks.
4:40 pm: And, it seems we have our first officials controversy of the game - according to announcer Chris Collinsworth, the running into the punter penalty SHOULD have been roughing by rule. Fortunately, it didn't matter as Seattle went three and out and punted it right back....
4:20 pm: Apparently, we're in Seattle...or at least, the crowd sounds like we're in Seattle. Is that a Seattle thing, or an anti-Patriot thing?
4:00 pm: What are YOU partying with?
(No, this isn't ours... we're going with chili and chips, and some taquitos later...)
3:50 pm: Here we are based in Idaho, smack dab in Seattle country (if Denver's not in the game!)...but it's looking harder and harder to stick with our Seattle prediction, watching the secondary players warm up. The key's going to be Russell Wilson now - if the Patriots are going to be able to score on the Seahawk defense (and Tom Brady's going to find the weaknesses in an injured secondary), then Wilson's going to have to manufacture points against New England; end of story. If he's going well (and isn't concussed for 55 minutes, like he was against Green Bay!), he can do it. If not, he can't, and New England wins.
3:38 pm: I'm tempted to change our prediction. Kam Chancellor, the key to the Seattle "Legion of Boom!" secondary, is NOT moving well in a pretty bulky knee brace that's really going to inhibit his ability to cover any receiver, but especially Rob Gronkowski, if indeed that's who Pete Carroll and crew choose to put him on. And if that's going to be a problem, I'm not so sure that Seattle should be favored any more...
3:30 pm: Welcome to the SUPER BOWL LIVE BLOG! We start with a piece of news that may be important - a tweet from ESPN's Ed Werder points out that "Earl Thomas appears to have harness to protect left shoulder, dropped 4th pass in warmups http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8yuBANCUAApNb6.jpg
If that's the case, that puts a crimp in Seattle's plans... especially if Sherman and/or Chancellor are hurting, too...
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