Having just posted our predictions for the Power Five conferences (the ACC, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac-12, and SEC), it's time to take a look at the other five conferences in the Bowl Subdivision - the American, Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West, and the Sun Belt Conference. Here we go!
The American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East):
*Six teams will vie for the title, so the champ may have two or even three conf losses!
*In the West, Memphis looks the class, although Houston will host them on Nov 14 and could steal the division with a win there.
*Navy's joined a conference for the first time in their 135 years of football! Looking at 3rd...
*Tulane should beat Tulsa at home and lock up 4th, while SMU will be better than last year, even if it doesn't get them out of the basement.
*In the East, it's easier to start at the bottom: UConn 6th, and South Florida 5th.
*All four of the others should thrash each other into a 5-3 logjam! We'll wager on East Carolina 1st, Central Florida 2nd, and Cincinnati 3rd with Temple in 4th. But who knows?
*Given that, we'll take Memphis to win the title game.
Conference USA:
*The winner of the Marshall at Western Kentucky game wins the division and the title.
*As of this moment? We'll lean on the revenge factor and pick the Thundering Herd.
*Middle Tennessee heads a distant pack behind them in the East.
*Pencil in Old Dominion, FIU, FAU, and newcomer UNC-Charlotte in the 4/5/6/7 spots.
*Nobody in the West can punch with WKU or Marshall, but Louisiana Tech should get the chance.
*If not, it'll be Rice - they've developed a good system there.
*UTEP should be able to rise to third, and then it depends on some ball bounces:
*We're thinking Southern Miss rises to 4th, North Texas 5th, and UTSA falls back to sixth.
Mid-American Conference (the MAC):
*They've marketed a marginal conference well - the Tuesday and Wednesday night games on ESPN, the "#MACtion" tweets, and all the exciting play from clever coaches.
*The power division here is the West, where by throwing their names in a hat I came up with:
*Northern Illinois winning the division (most experience winning).
*Toledo 2nd, Western Michigan fighting a tough schedule for third, and Ball St in 4th.
*Central Michigan is an easy 5th place pick, because the top 4 are significantly better, and...
*Eastern Michigan is conceivably the worst team in football, at least this year in the FBS.
*In the East, Bowling Green is the class of the division (though they'll lose the title game).
*Only Terry Bowden's Akron has a shot to dethrone them, with Frank Solich's Ohio team in third.
*Four bad teams round out the MAC-East: U-Mass (bad), Buffalo (bad), Kent St (really bad), and Miami of Ohio (so bad Miami-FL makes them distinguish that they are not the same school).
Mountain West conference:
* This year, it should be Boise State and the eleven dwarves, but that remains to be proven.
*Boise's rating numbers are so far above everyone else's that they should be 8-0 in conference, with only a tough out-of-conf schedule to manage. If they goes 3-1 there, they should be playing in a major bowl again.
*Utah St figures to give them the best battle, although they've hit some rocky stretches here.
*CSU, Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico round out the Mountain division, in that order.
*In the West, six mediocre teams fight for the division title, with San Diego St looking like the best candidate for the job,
*Nevada's coming up on the rail for 2nd, and Fresno St's struggling this off-season.
*San Jose may still be 4th, but not for lack of trying. Meanwhile, Hawaii will put some wins on the home field, and UNLV won't.
Sun Belt Conference:
*I know - this should've been in yellow...but Appalachian St and Georgia Southern are the 1-2 teams here...Only the two of them, plus maybe 3rd place Arkansas St and maybe 4th place Louisiana Lafayette would have a chance to win even one game in any other conference. Even the MAC or Conf-USA!
*Texas State is the best of the rest, and should be able to pull off a .500 or better record in league.
*After that, it's turtles all the way down.
*Depending on how South Alabama takes to its 10-15 new players who were with UAB last year before their one year hiatus, they could be as high as sixth (maybe fifth?). Or UL-Monroe will slide from 7th up to 6th...
*Below that are four of the five Bottom Five teams to start the season (most likely): Troy in 8th; New Mexica St (9th), Idaho (10th), and Georgia State (11th).
So, to recap - the Bottom Five would be Troy, NMSU, the Vandals, Georgia State, and Eastern Michigan, along with their intern, newbie Charlotte from the C-USA. (If we're counting Army as a non-Power conference team, then the Cadets from West Point will be in that Bottom mix as well.) Boise State should repeat as the Power of Five rep in the New Year's Six bowl games, and the conference champs will include Appalachian State, Northern Illinois, Marshall, and Memphis.
Thursday, July 2, 2015
Speaking of college football, how about a few early predictions?
While here at Following Football:ACNC we don't rank our teams early so as not to bias ourselves against what we see, there's nothing to stop us from guessing how things are going to turn out! So, holding back the right to adjust these predictions as circumstances warrant until the season actually starts in September, here are some thoughts as they pertain to the actual conference races this fall...
Atlantic Coast Conference:
- The winner of the Florida St @ Clemson game wins the ACC title. (We bet Clemson.)
- Louisville 3rd and NC St 4th in the Atlantic; everyone else is putrid.
- Flip a coin between Miami, Georgia Tech, and Va-Tech for the Coastal crown...
-...we're taking Miami in an upset right now.
- Duke will still be good; just not AS good. 4th place.
- Since UNC goes TO Pitt, we'll take Pitt for 5th and the Tar Heels 6th.
- It'll be Al Golden's last year at Virginia, as they finish 7th in the Coastal division.
The B1G (the Big Ten, which of course has 14 teams):
- Ohio State is as good as they say. Undefeated season going into the CFP.
- Michigan State would be champs except for the Buckeyes.
- Penn St gets the Wolverines at home, so they get 3rd and Harbaugh gets 4th.
- The rest of the division is bad. Take Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana in that order.
- Take Minnesota for the West Division! They get BOTH Wisc and Neb at home!
- Wisconsin will be ready to pounce on another division crown if the Gophers fail.
- Nebraska third, and nobody close behind them.
(But plan on Iowa, NW, Illinois, and terrible Purdue if you have to.)
The XII (the Big Twelve, which of course has 10 teams):
- TCU all the way, including a pounding of Baylor in Fort Worth and a trip to the CFP.
- The rest of the real class in the XII is Baylor and OU, who we see 2nd and 3rd.
- There's a logjam for mediocrity, which we're deciphering as Texas, K-St, OSU, and WVU.
- The bottom of the conference is still poor. Tech 8th, ISU 9th, KU 10th.
The Pac-12 Conference:
- Two tight races at the top: we'll flip a coin down south and say UCLA has the slightly easier road.
- Up north, we've a hunch that it's finally Stanford's year to get through OU to the CFP!
- The four other good teams in the conference are Arizona, Utah, Cal, and ASU. In that order.
- UW might join them, but let's see them against Boise St first. If they win there, then yes.
- Wazzu and Oregon St may have some chances to at least go to a bowl.
- Colorado definitely does NOT.
The Southeastern Conference:
- We're staying with 'Bama until they prove us wrong. Division, conference, CFP.
-...but LSU and Auburn are good choices, too, should "In Saban we trust" falter.
- 4th/5th is tight between Ole Miss and Arkansas; their game is in Mississippi, so we take the Rebels.
- 6th/7th would be 1st/2nd in most conferences. Here, it's placing Miss St in the cellar because A&M wins in Texas.
- Georgia's the only team in the Eastern Division that would have a chance in the West.
- The other six will go winless against the West. Book it!
- Vanderbilt will be last. But I'd prefer to school there than any of the other SEC schools.
- Spots 2-6 may be a five way tie at 3-5, but we'll say: UK, Mizzou, USC, FLA, and UT.
So to recap: The College Football Playoff should be TCU, Ohio St, Stanford, and 'Bama.
The Power Five Bottom Five (we're splitting it up this year!) may start with Vandy, Kansas, Colorado, Purdue, and Wake Forest. The Group of Five conferences are next.
Atlantic Coast Conference:
- The winner of the Florida St @ Clemson game wins the ACC title. (We bet Clemson.)
- Louisville 3rd and NC St 4th in the Atlantic; everyone else is putrid.
- Flip a coin between Miami, Georgia Tech, and Va-Tech for the Coastal crown...
-...we're taking Miami in an upset right now.
- Duke will still be good; just not AS good. 4th place.
- Since UNC goes TO Pitt, we'll take Pitt for 5th and the Tar Heels 6th.
- It'll be Al Golden's last year at Virginia, as they finish 7th in the Coastal division.
The B1G (the Big Ten, which of course has 14 teams):
- Ohio State is as good as they say. Undefeated season going into the CFP.
- Michigan State would be champs except for the Buckeyes.
- Penn St gets the Wolverines at home, so they get 3rd and Harbaugh gets 4th.
- The rest of the division is bad. Take Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana in that order.
- Take Minnesota for the West Division! They get BOTH Wisc and Neb at home!
- Wisconsin will be ready to pounce on another division crown if the Gophers fail.
- Nebraska third, and nobody close behind them.
(But plan on Iowa, NW, Illinois, and terrible Purdue if you have to.)
The XII (the Big Twelve, which of course has 10 teams):
- TCU all the way, including a pounding of Baylor in Fort Worth and a trip to the CFP.
- The rest of the real class in the XII is Baylor and OU, who we see 2nd and 3rd.
- There's a logjam for mediocrity, which we're deciphering as Texas, K-St, OSU, and WVU.
- The bottom of the conference is still poor. Tech 8th, ISU 9th, KU 10th.
The Pac-12 Conference:
- Two tight races at the top: we'll flip a coin down south and say UCLA has the slightly easier road.
- Up north, we've a hunch that it's finally Stanford's year to get through OU to the CFP!
- The four other good teams in the conference are Arizona, Utah, Cal, and ASU. In that order.
- UW might join them, but let's see them against Boise St first. If they win there, then yes.
- Wazzu and Oregon St may have some chances to at least go to a bowl.
- Colorado definitely does NOT.
The Southeastern Conference:
- We're staying with 'Bama until they prove us wrong. Division, conference, CFP.
-...but LSU and Auburn are good choices, too, should "In Saban we trust" falter.
- 4th/5th is tight between Ole Miss and Arkansas; their game is in Mississippi, so we take the Rebels.
- 6th/7th would be 1st/2nd in most conferences. Here, it's placing Miss St in the cellar because A&M wins in Texas.
- Georgia's the only team in the Eastern Division that would have a chance in the West.
- The other six will go winless against the West. Book it!
- Vanderbilt will be last. But I'd prefer to school there than any of the other SEC schools.
- Spots 2-6 may be a five way tie at 3-5, but we'll say: UK, Mizzou, USC, FLA, and UT.
So to recap: The College Football Playoff should be TCU, Ohio St, Stanford, and 'Bama.
The Power Five Bottom Five (we're splitting it up this year!) may start with Vandy, Kansas, Colorado, Purdue, and Wake Forest. The Group of Five conferences are next.
What makes college football unique?
ESPN's Chris Low has a short piece in today's ESPN.com opinion page that reminds us what a great game the college version of American football continues to be, and names ten things that make college football unique, which he hopes never change.
No such list is comprehensive, of course, and his inclusion of (for example) OU and Texas at the Cotton Bowl demands by inference that we also include the World's Largest Cocktail Party (Georgia/Florida), the Alabama/Auburn game, and for that matter on-campus rivalries that were in peril during the realignment rage: OSU/Michigan, Cal/Stanford, Harvard/Yale, the Apple Cup, the Civil War, the Border War, USC/UCLA, and so on and so forth.
His inclusion of the Rose Bowl view implies the other iconic stadia - the large (Michigan's "Big House", Notre Dame and Touchdown Jesus, etc.) and the small (even seen BSU's blue turf at a game? There's no bigger home field advantage in the game).
His inclusion of marching bands - a personal favorite of mine, having taught them for thirty years - should also include the cheerleaders and yell leaders; the pre-game ceremonies that are unique to each team (running through the tunnel of fans or band members or whomever); the stadium announcers who never saw a penalty against the home team they agreed with in their lives, and so forth!
The live mascots are a blast! But what about the Sooner Schooner racing across the field? The Nebraska bouncing Husker Boy? Stanford's living tree-with-sunglasses? Too many cool ones to mention them all!
And, of course, by invoking Clemson's touching of the rock, you implicitly name every such team tradition of 253 division 1 schools and the other 500 or so lower division programs across the country. Everyone has them - no matter your team, you can name one or two, I'm sure. You don't think there's such things in the NFL, do you? In the cookie-cutter stadiums of old, in the PC entertainment packages and sideline showgirls and non-existent team traditions because they all work for Roger Goodell in the end? When we root for an NFL team, too often we're really rooting for laundry these days...but we're all loyal to our alma mater college (and high school, for that matter!), and so are the players.
No such list is comprehensive, of course, and his inclusion of (for example) OU and Texas at the Cotton Bowl demands by inference that we also include the World's Largest Cocktail Party (Georgia/Florida), the Alabama/Auburn game, and for that matter on-campus rivalries that were in peril during the realignment rage: OSU/Michigan, Cal/Stanford, Harvard/Yale, the Apple Cup, the Civil War, the Border War, USC/UCLA, and so on and so forth.
His inclusion of the Rose Bowl view implies the other iconic stadia - the large (Michigan's "Big House", Notre Dame and Touchdown Jesus, etc.) and the small (even seen BSU's blue turf at a game? There's no bigger home field advantage in the game).
His inclusion of marching bands - a personal favorite of mine, having taught them for thirty years - should also include the cheerleaders and yell leaders; the pre-game ceremonies that are unique to each team (running through the tunnel of fans or band members or whomever); the stadium announcers who never saw a penalty against the home team they agreed with in their lives, and so forth!
The live mascots are a blast! But what about the Sooner Schooner racing across the field? The Nebraska bouncing Husker Boy? Stanford's living tree-with-sunglasses? Too many cool ones to mention them all!
And, of course, by invoking Clemson's touching of the rock, you implicitly name every such team tradition of 253 division 1 schools and the other 500 or so lower division programs across the country. Everyone has them - no matter your team, you can name one or two, I'm sure. You don't think there's such things in the NFL, do you? In the cookie-cutter stadiums of old, in the PC entertainment packages and sideline showgirls and non-existent team traditions because they all work for Roger Goodell in the end? When we root for an NFL team, too often we're really rooting for laundry these days...but we're all loyal to our alma mater college (and high school, for that matter!), and so are the players.
Wednesday, July 1, 2015
On the other hand, if you think OUR football versions are violent...
...consider "calcio storico", a 16th century form of violence...er, football, using 27 men on a team and...
Well, take a look:
Well, take a look:
....holy catfish...
This week's prognostications...
For round 14 of the Australian footy season...
- Sydney is favored at home by 9 over Port Adelaide; we have it more like 24 points and are taking them to cover easily.
- Hawthorn is favored by 23 at the MCG over Collingwood in the battle for fourth on the ladder; we think that's about right.
- Richmond at home against the floundering GWS: favored by 25, should end up higher than that.
- North Melbourne goes to the Gold Coast and is favored by 18; even with Gary Ablett due back this week, it's hard to imaging the Kangaroos winning by less than 18.
- Western is favored over Carlton by 11; despite Carlton's improved form, we have it as a 24 point spread and would bet that way.
- West Coast is favored by 24 at Melbourne; our ratings have it at 38, but we're settling for a bet to win for the Eagles.
- Essendon is favored over St. Kilda by ten in a battle of 4-8 teams; we're choosing the 2:30 to 1 upset and taking the Saints to win outright.
- Adelaide at home, favored by 5 over Geelong, with both teams on the fringe of the top eight, trying to make the finals; we see another upset here and are taking Geelong to win outright. Both of these bets, by the way, are against what our rating system says. Trusting our instincts. We have five games that the FF ratings disagree with the odds makers by more than ten points; it'll be interesting to see what happens!
- And finally, Fremantle should dismantle Brisbane - the oddsmakers say by 53; we don't think they'll keep the foot on the gas that long.
For Week 2 of the Canadian Football League...
- Hamilton at Winnipeg: we're predicting Hamilton by two, 24-22.
- Calgary at Montreal: Calgary should win easily, 29-7.
- British Columbia at Ottawa: despite last week's fool's gold, BC wins 32-21.
- Toronto at Saskatchewan: this would have been different before last weekend! However, giving the circumstances at each franchise after the first game, we'll go Toronto by six, 29-23.
Our AFL record is immaculate: we've chosen 78 correct winners out of 108 (over 72%), which places us in the top half of the top 1% of AFL "tipsters" this year as certified by the AFL itself. On the other hand, we went one for four during our first week of picking CFL games, mostly due to fallen quarterbacks. But, a loss is a loss, and we'll simply hope we've done better this week!
- Sydney is favored at home by 9 over Port Adelaide; we have it more like 24 points and are taking them to cover easily.
- Hawthorn is favored by 23 at the MCG over Collingwood in the battle for fourth on the ladder; we think that's about right.
- Richmond at home against the floundering GWS: favored by 25, should end up higher than that.
- North Melbourne goes to the Gold Coast and is favored by 18; even with Gary Ablett due back this week, it's hard to imaging the Kangaroos winning by less than 18.
- Western is favored over Carlton by 11; despite Carlton's improved form, we have it as a 24 point spread and would bet that way.
- West Coast is favored by 24 at Melbourne; our ratings have it at 38, but we're settling for a bet to win for the Eagles.
- Essendon is favored over St. Kilda by ten in a battle of 4-8 teams; we're choosing the 2:30 to 1 upset and taking the Saints to win outright.
- Adelaide at home, favored by 5 over Geelong, with both teams on the fringe of the top eight, trying to make the finals; we see another upset here and are taking Geelong to win outright. Both of these bets, by the way, are against what our rating system says. Trusting our instincts. We have five games that the FF ratings disagree with the odds makers by more than ten points; it'll be interesting to see what happens!
- And finally, Fremantle should dismantle Brisbane - the oddsmakers say by 53; we don't think they'll keep the foot on the gas that long.
For Week 2 of the Canadian Football League...
- Hamilton at Winnipeg: we're predicting Hamilton by two, 24-22.
- Calgary at Montreal: Calgary should win easily, 29-7.
- British Columbia at Ottawa: despite last week's fool's gold, BC wins 32-21.
- Toronto at Saskatchewan: this would have been different before last weekend! However, giving the circumstances at each franchise after the first game, we'll go Toronto by six, 29-23.
Our AFL record is immaculate: we've chosen 78 correct winners out of 108 (over 72%), which places us in the top half of the top 1% of AFL "tipsters" this year as certified by the AFL itself. On the other hand, we went one for four during our first week of picking CFL games, mostly due to fallen quarterbacks. But, a loss is a loss, and we'll simply hope we've done better this week!
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
What drives a player into retirement? Ask Brett Favre.
While some will take the headline as sensationalistic ("FAVRE SAYS HE COULD STILL PLAY IN THE NFL!!!!!!), his point is an important one in this article I've linked.
Favre's point is that even now, seven years out, he could still make the throws he used to make (minus some of the length, perhaps, "but that never matters anyway"). It's the hits that drive you from the game, he says. After a while, your body simply can't recover anymore, at least not in the six-and-a-half days between games you get.
Could we protect players more? Sure.
Could we protect them without damaging the game? Not completely, no.
The NBA is looking into lengthening the time that its 82 games take place in, to allow for fewer back-to-back games, fewer debilitating road trips that coaches feel the need to sit their starters just to preserve their bodies for the remainder of the season.
But the CFL (a nine-team league) lost five quarterbacks during the first weekend of games alone, including the first AND second stringers from one team (Montreal). Did you pay to see the third string clipboard holder suffer through a topnotch defense? Neither did I.
If there was an easy solution, we'd already have it. The biggest question is this: where do we believe the line between safety and "the integrity of the game" is?
Favre's point is that even now, seven years out, he could still make the throws he used to make (minus some of the length, perhaps, "but that never matters anyway"). It's the hits that drive you from the game, he says. After a while, your body simply can't recover anymore, at least not in the six-and-a-half days between games you get.
Could we protect players more? Sure.
Could we protect them without damaging the game? Not completely, no.
The NBA is looking into lengthening the time that its 82 games take place in, to allow for fewer back-to-back games, fewer debilitating road trips that coaches feel the need to sit their starters just to preserve their bodies for the remainder of the season.
But the CFL (a nine-team league) lost five quarterbacks during the first weekend of games alone, including the first AND second stringers from one team (Montreal). Did you pay to see the third string clipboard holder suffer through a topnotch defense? Neither did I.
If there was an easy solution, we'd already have it. The biggest question is this: where do we believe the line between safety and "the integrity of the game" is?
"Big 12 expansion is not just a possibility..."
Not that it's going to happen just yet, but here's an article from a visit with OU president David Boren, laying out the timetable (in the next ten years) for the expansion of the Big 12 back to (at least) 12 - expansion which "is not just a possibility, but an inevitability" for the long-term survival of the league.
Monday, June 29, 2015
The weekend in CFL and AFL action
Starting with the CFL, thanks to the quarterback MASH unit overflowing, we went 1-3 predicting winners and 0-4 betting on the line. Great start, FF! But we're honest when we screw up...and it was under mitigating circumstances! Check out the review of the four weekend games here - you'll see that if it wasn't for Montreal losing BOTH quarterbacks, they probably win against Ottawa...and if Edmonton doesn't lose Mike Reilly for the year, then Toronto may not win (y'know, we take that back. Trevor Harris made his second professional start for the Argos and went 24-27. They would've won regardless...)...and if Saskatchewan doesn't lose star QB Darian Durant in the game, they hold on to beat archrival Winnipeg. So, losing those games stings less than it might otherwise. GREAT Monday morning reviews of the weekend's action from Don Landry and Pat Steinberg for CFL.ca - LOTS of insight in a short read!
Regardless, there were four exciting games up north!
Week 1
Ottawa d. Montreal 20-16 (Game winning drive AND time draining drive by Ottawa!)
Calgary d. Hamilton 24-23 (Rene Paradis kicks winning FG with no time left)
Toronto d. Edmonton 26-11 (Harris dominates Reilly's replacement...)
Winnipeg d. Saskatchewan 30-26 (another game winning drive, this time Winnipeg's)
In the Australian footy league, the biggest story in Round 13 was Richmond's upset at Sydney, pulling away to win by 18 Friday night. Not only did it move the Tigers into the top 8 for the first time in a month, but it allows reigning premier Hawthorn to use their distinctive second half domination over rival Essendon (with some bad blood thrown in from the Hawks' Sam Mitchell!) to jump into the top four for the first time in two months! As those top four get the "double chance" in the playoffs, that's a critical distinction for any team. (Can we please wait to cover the details of the double chance until we reach August?)
The other four games went more or less to form: Fremantle def. Collingwood (but barely, by seven points); Adelaide waited until the fourth quarter to show their dominance over the Brisbane Lions, pulling away by 13 after trailing most of the game; the Western Bulldogs got revenge for the St. Kilda 55-point comeback on May 9, winning by 13; and Carlton proved they're starting to rise from the dead, beating still-deceased Gold Coast 103-69. (Oh, and we got five out of six right last week, missing on Richmond's upset.)
Regardless, there were four exciting games up north!
Week 1
Ottawa d. Montreal 20-16 (Game winning drive AND time draining drive by Ottawa!)
Calgary d. Hamilton 24-23 (Rene Paradis kicks winning FG with no time left)
Toronto d. Edmonton 26-11 (Harris dominates Reilly's replacement...)
Winnipeg d. Saskatchewan 30-26 (another game winning drive, this time Winnipeg's)
In the Australian footy league, the biggest story in Round 13 was Richmond's upset at Sydney, pulling away to win by 18 Friday night. Not only did it move the Tigers into the top 8 for the first time in a month, but it allows reigning premier Hawthorn to use their distinctive second half domination over rival Essendon (with some bad blood thrown in from the Hawks' Sam Mitchell!) to jump into the top four for the first time in two months! As those top four get the "double chance" in the playoffs, that's a critical distinction for any team. (Can we please wait to cover the details of the double chance until we reach August?)
The other four games went more or less to form: Fremantle def. Collingwood (but barely, by seven points); Adelaide waited until the fourth quarter to show their dominance over the Brisbane Lions, pulling away by 13 after trailing most of the game; the Western Bulldogs got revenge for the St. Kilda 55-point comeback on May 9, winning by 13; and Carlton proved they're starting to rise from the dead, beating still-deceased Gold Coast 103-69. (Oh, and we got five out of six right last week, missing on Richmond's upset.)
I may have to renege on my Gold Coast fandom...
As more and more stories emerge on the AFL's Gold Coast Suns, their alleged drug culture, the seedy "double-agent player" Karmichael Hunt (who has since gone back to rugby after a seven million dollar venture into footy over the last four years), the cocaine parties at the end-of-season gatherings, and the 1-11 disaster on the field (stretching back to superstar Gary Ablett's shoulder injury last season, the Suns are actually 2-18 over their last twenty games), including the mysterious firing of coach Guy McKenna at the end of last season...I've decided to pull my allegiance from the Suns as my club of choice when rooting from afar.
It was easy to root for the Suns... new, exciting, young and talented players, the glittering Gold Coast of Australia's touristy southeastern seaside, topped off by the decision of the greatest player in the game: Geelong's Gary Ablett, Jr., chose to make his move from the south coast of Victoria to become the "founding mentor captain" of this new, fledgling club, the seventeenth AFL member (GWS joined the following year, rescuing the Suns from a second "wooden spoon" in 2012).
And they made progress! After three-win seasons in 2011 and 2012, they moved up to 8-14 in 2013, and competitive enough (92%) to make people see the potential for this young team to make finals soon and compete for championships in the not-so-distant future. Last year, after round 9, they were in third place at 7-2, and even after a tough stretch against some top competition, they entered round 15 with an 8-6 record, ready to tackle Collingwood on an even basis for the first time.
The game was a two-faced milestone for the team.
On the negative side, Ablett was tackled and slammed to the ground in the early third quarter, damaging his shoulder to the point where he wouldn't play again the rest of the season. On the positive end, his teammates rallied (with no exchange players on the bench in the fourth quarter due to multiple injuries) and beat Collingwood heroically by five points to move to 9-6, safely in the top eight, a game clear.
Then the wheels not only fell off: they flew across the highway and wrecked three cars, flipped the car over and set it on fire.
The Suns won only one more game all season, barely beating lowly St. Kilda and losing to everyone else, to fall to twelfth at 10-12, still their best season ever. At this moment, this is where Karmichael Hunt admitted yesterday to Queensland police that he brought huge amounts of cocaine to share with his teammates at a weekend party following the Manic Monday season-ending bash.
These accusations came up months ago, as reported by Damian Barrett. and were conveniently swept under the counter. As Barrett notes in that video clip, the essence of the message (then AND now) from both the Suns administration and the AFL, was "Nothing to see here, move along, guys..." , when it seems clear to all that indeed there was and IS something to see and hear.
As a Christian, I forgive mistakes with ease, as Christ does. But what gets people in trouble with not only God but society as a whole? Hypocrisy. LIE about what you did and didn't do, and get caught lying about it, and you've joined the "Barry Bonds/Lance Armstrong/Alex Rodriguez" school of ruining your life.
That appears to be exactly what the Suns have done, are doing, and will continue to try to o for as long as they can get away with it. They've nailed a number of their players for minor drinking violations - a glass of wine with family the weekend after a game? - to bend over backwards to prove they don't have a drug culture, forgetting that the first rule of spotting a liar is to watch them exaggerate in the other direction. Now that Hunt has apparently sung to the cops about what his part in the game was, here's hoping the Suns players AND management finally come clean about this. (But I doubt this will happen.)
Meanwhile...anyone got a team to suggest? My late wife always favored Geelong, as she loved Cats. I've liked the team cultures there and at Fremantle and Hawthorn, for example, beyond their recent success on the field. When they're playing well, I love watching Sydney, Port, or Brisbane. Hmmmm.... I might need to stay neutral for the season...
It was easy to root for the Suns... new, exciting, young and talented players, the glittering Gold Coast of Australia's touristy southeastern seaside, topped off by the decision of the greatest player in the game: Geelong's Gary Ablett, Jr., chose to make his move from the south coast of Victoria to become the "founding mentor captain" of this new, fledgling club, the seventeenth AFL member (GWS joined the following year, rescuing the Suns from a second "wooden spoon" in 2012).
And they made progress! After three-win seasons in 2011 and 2012, they moved up to 8-14 in 2013, and competitive enough (92%) to make people see the potential for this young team to make finals soon and compete for championships in the not-so-distant future. Last year, after round 9, they were in third place at 7-2, and even after a tough stretch against some top competition, they entered round 15 with an 8-6 record, ready to tackle Collingwood on an even basis for the first time.
The game was a two-faced milestone for the team.
On the negative side, Ablett was tackled and slammed to the ground in the early third quarter, damaging his shoulder to the point where he wouldn't play again the rest of the season. On the positive end, his teammates rallied (with no exchange players on the bench in the fourth quarter due to multiple injuries) and beat Collingwood heroically by five points to move to 9-6, safely in the top eight, a game clear.
Then the wheels not only fell off: they flew across the highway and wrecked three cars, flipped the car over and set it on fire.
The Suns won only one more game all season, barely beating lowly St. Kilda and losing to everyone else, to fall to twelfth at 10-12, still their best season ever. At this moment, this is where Karmichael Hunt admitted yesterday to Queensland police that he brought huge amounts of cocaine to share with his teammates at a weekend party following the Manic Monday season-ending bash.
These accusations came up months ago, as reported by Damian Barrett. and were conveniently swept under the counter. As Barrett notes in that video clip, the essence of the message (then AND now) from both the Suns administration and the AFL, was "Nothing to see here, move along, guys..." , when it seems clear to all that indeed there was and IS something to see and hear.
As a Christian, I forgive mistakes with ease, as Christ does. But what gets people in trouble with not only God but society as a whole? Hypocrisy. LIE about what you did and didn't do, and get caught lying about it, and you've joined the "Barry Bonds/Lance Armstrong/Alex Rodriguez" school of ruining your life.
That appears to be exactly what the Suns have done, are doing, and will continue to try to o for as long as they can get away with it. They've nailed a number of their players for minor drinking violations - a glass of wine with family the weekend after a game? - to bend over backwards to prove they don't have a drug culture, forgetting that the first rule of spotting a liar is to watch them exaggerate in the other direction. Now that Hunt has apparently sung to the cops about what his part in the game was, here's hoping the Suns players AND management finally come clean about this. (But I doubt this will happen.)
Meanwhile...anyone got a team to suggest? My late wife always favored Geelong, as she loved Cats. I've liked the team cultures there and at Fremantle and Hawthorn, for example, beyond their recent success on the field. When they're playing well, I love watching Sydney, Port, or Brisbane. Hmmmm.... I might need to stay neutral for the season...
Saturday, June 27, 2015
We need some betting advice...
The last game of round 13 is just about to start in Melbourne, between Carlton and Gold Coast. Both teams are sitting safely in the bottom three on the ladder, well behind everyone except Brisbane.
EVERY GAME so far this round has been closer than our ratings said they should be.
THIS GAME is predicted by our rating system as a flat footed draw.
So, who does that mean should win this game? Can it be CLOSER than a draw?
Edit: the Carlton Blues won easily, although the first half was close; Blues 103, Suns 69.
EVERY GAME so far this round has been closer than our ratings said they should be.
THIS GAME is predicted by our rating system as a flat footed draw.
So, who does that mean should win this game? Can it be CLOSER than a draw?
Edit: the Carlton Blues won easily, although the first half was close; Blues 103, Suns 69.
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