We haven't kept a close enough eye on the events in the World Cup of women's futbol, but as the round of sixteen concludes, let's review the tournament so far...
Group A saw a cluster at the top which allowed three teams through thanks to three ties with the three decisions. Canada won with five points (1-0-2), and China and the Netherlands also advanced, leaving New Zealand behind.
Group B saw 2-0-1 records from both Germany and Norway, eliminating upstarts Thailand and the Ivory Coast.
Group C was dominated by the Japanese women, who won all three matches, and Switzerland and Cameroon also advanced, eliminating Ecuador.
Group D: the United States went undefeated, going 2-0-1 with a tie against Sweden (who tied everybody - 0-0-3!), dragging Australia in as well as the Swedes. Only 0-2- Nigeria stayed behind.
Group E saw Brazil's Marta set an all-time goal scoring record, and the ladies of the beautiful sport started their redemption tour for the men's debacle by going 3-0-0 in the round-robin round. South Korea placed second with a record of 1-1-1. Spain was winless, tying only Costa Rica, who also tied the Koreans but never won a game.
Finally, Group F was led by channel neighbors France and England, followed into the knockout round by 1-1-1 Columbia. Only Mexico was sent home.
Now in the Round of Sixteen, no major surprises presented themselves:
China def. Cameroon 1-0
United States beat Columbia 2-0
Germany def. Sweden 4-1
France won over South Korea, 3-0
Australia did upset the Brazilians, 1-0. So, there goes the revenge for the men's debacle.
Japan outlasted the Netherlands, 2-1
England beat Norway 2-1.
Canada, the host country, continued on by beating Switzerland 1-0.
So, the quarterfinals begin on Friday, when Germany takes on France, and then China faces the United States (so, a replay of WW2, followed by a preview of WW3!). Winners play each other on Tuesday.
On Saturday, the other two quarters take place, with a spot in Wednesday's second semi on the line: Australia v. Japan, and England v. Canada. The finals will be next weekend - third place game on Saturday, July 4th, championship on Sunday, July 5th. No predictions from us - we don't know anywhere NEAR enough about these teams!
Thursday, June 25, 2015
The CFL kicks off TONIGHT!
The pointy football's back in play starting tonight! Ottawa visits Montreal in game one of 81, and you can watch this one and many others on ESPN2 this year! You can also get involved in the pick'em game at cfl.ca - it's fun, free, and you can compete against us here at Following Football if you wish! (We're listed under "hesrdc", and our avatar is a sloth with sunglasses, smiling as only a sloth in sunglasses can!).
There are a bevy of great articles there on www.cfl.ca that you can choose from to preview the 2015 season - we're picking Calgary to repeat, starting with a reprise of their Grey Cup victory over likely eastern-division winners (maybe) Hamilton tomorrow night. There are previews of each division, where Landry and Nye agree with us (with reservations), highlights on each team, and more.
Remember the basic differences, Yankees - all of which make the Canadian version arguably more fun to watch...
1) The FIELD is 11o yards long (there are TWO 50-yard lines, with a C (center) line in between on 55). It's also about ten yards wider.
2) End zones are twice as deep, and the goal posts are UP FRONT, which makes for some VERY interesting pick maneuvers around it!
3) You only get THREE downs to make ten yards, so you cannot waste any plays!
4) But you can have danged near EVERYBODY in motion at the snap, even going towards the line of scrimmage. (And did I mention you have TWELVE guys on the field per team?)
5) Scoring has a twist: the rouge. Whenever you can stick the ball in the end zone (after a field goal attempt or punt, for example) without the other team being able to get it out, that's one point. So yes, in the CFL you can have those odd scores like 3-1, 7-4, and so forth!
6) Because the defensive line has to be a full yard off the ball (unlike in the US, where you have to stay just the length of the football away), QB sneaks are more successful, pass rushing is different, and all sorts of subtle line-related differences come up. (The biggest one, combined with previous rules, is the dominance of the passing game, even in cold weather.)
Personally, we here at Following Football started following the CFL when they very temporarily (over)expanded into the US, and there were teams all over BOTH countries about twenty years ago or so. (Sacramento was our team of choice.) That experiment was a financial disaster, but the CFL survived and recreated its original purpose.
There are a bevy of great articles there on www.cfl.ca that you can choose from to preview the 2015 season - we're picking Calgary to repeat, starting with a reprise of their Grey Cup victory over likely eastern-division winners (maybe) Hamilton tomorrow night. There are previews of each division, where Landry and Nye agree with us (with reservations), highlights on each team, and more.
Remember the basic differences, Yankees - all of which make the Canadian version arguably more fun to watch...
1) The FIELD is 11o yards long (there are TWO 50-yard lines, with a C (center) line in between on 55). It's also about ten yards wider.
2) End zones are twice as deep, and the goal posts are UP FRONT, which makes for some VERY interesting pick maneuvers around it!
3) You only get THREE downs to make ten yards, so you cannot waste any plays!
4) But you can have danged near EVERYBODY in motion at the snap, even going towards the line of scrimmage. (And did I mention you have TWELVE guys on the field per team?)
5) Scoring has a twist: the rouge. Whenever you can stick the ball in the end zone (after a field goal attempt or punt, for example) without the other team being able to get it out, that's one point. So yes, in the CFL you can have those odd scores like 3-1, 7-4, and so forth!
6) Because the defensive line has to be a full yard off the ball (unlike in the US, where you have to stay just the length of the football away), QB sneaks are more successful, pass rushing is different, and all sorts of subtle line-related differences come up. (The biggest one, combined with previous rules, is the dominance of the passing game, even in cold weather.)
Personally, we here at Following Football started following the CFL when they very temporarily (over)expanded into the US, and there were teams all over BOTH countries about twenty years ago or so. (Sacramento was our team of choice.) That experiment was a financial disaster, but the CFL survived and recreated its original purpose.
Midseason eval of each footy team in the AFL
These two articles together (splitting the eighteen AFL teams into articles each looking at nine teams) will give veteran footy followers a keen sense of where their teams are lacking and where they're running with power, but it'll also help the novice AFL fan get a feel for what each team is right now and what they're capable of.
Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS
Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western
And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)
Adelaide-Brisbane-Carlton-Collingwood-Essendon-Fremantle-Geelong-Gold Coast-GWS
Hawthorn-Melbourne-North-Port Adelaide-Richmond-St.Kilda-Sydney-West Coast-Western
And by the way, if you're still looking to get a handle on who each of these teams really is, here's a link to a great set of descriptions, one for each Australian club, matching them to an American sports team which they most closely resemble. (For example, Fremantle, who won last night 80-73 in a thrilling game, most closely resembles hockey's New Jersey Devils, while their opponent Collingwood fills the niche of baseball's royalty, the New York Yankees.)
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
An update on the NFL minicamps...
John Clayton is as knowledgeable about the inner workings of the 32 NFL teams as any human alive (although there are times when I suspect Peter King is close, and Adam Schefter does a great job, too). Many reporters are more experienced with one or two specific teams, and if that's what you need you go to the specialists - but as a generalist myself, Clayton's my man. Here is a great summary of the OTA's off ESPN.com from the man himself, including good news for Marcus Mariota and Jamies Winston fans.
And then to the specialists: here is where you'll find thirty-two "offseason grade" reports from thirty-two reporters dedicated to those teams - personally, I'd ignore the "grades", which are a click-bait device to begin with.
And then to the specialists: here is where you'll find thirty-two "offseason grade" reports from thirty-two reporters dedicated to those teams - personally, I'd ignore the "grades", which are a click-bait device to begin with.
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
AFL Team of the Mid-Year...2015
As of round 12, we're about halfway through the "home-and-away" schedule, and both afl.com.au AND the Age have put out their mid-season Top 22's - so let's all compare notes, shall we? Following Football is also going to share where our records have each player listed in the year-long Player Of The Year voting, so we can have our own say, so nyeah! :)
Consensus first team choices:
Alex Rance (Richmond) – back (32 points, 79th place)
Michael Hurley (Essendon) – back (70, 11th)
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) – half-back (72,10th)
Dan Hannebury (Sydney) – centre (111,2nd)
Matt Priddis (West Coast) – centre (88, 4th)
David Armitage (St. Kilda) – centre (88, 4th)
Todd Goldstein (North) - ruckman (88, 4th)
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) – ruck-rover (195, 1st)
Dylan Shiel (GWS) - rover (92, 3rd)
Scott Pendlebury (Coll) – half-forward (80,7th)
Lance Franklin (Sydney) – half-forward (79, 8th)
Luke
Parker (Sydney) – half-forward (66,14th)
Mentioned on both sets of ballots:
Tom McDonald (Melbourne) – back (58,24th)
Matt Boyd (Western) – back (41, 53rd)
Jamie Elliot (Coll) – half-forward (37, 65th)
Andrew Gaff (West Coast) – centre (62, 20th)
Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle) – ruck (35, 68th)
First Team on one ballot or the other:
Heath Shaw (GWS) – back (13, dnp)
Harry Taylor (Geelong) – half-back (42, 50th)
Corey Enright (Geelong) – half-back (54, 30th)
Jarrad McVeigh (Sydney) – half-back (59, 22nd)
Bachar Houli (Richmond) – half-back (37, 65th)
Lachie Neale (Fremantle) - rover (53, 32nd)
Robbie Gray (Port Adelaide) – h-forward (69, 12th)
Top Twenty vote getters on the FF ballot NOT listed above:
Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide) - 73 points, 9th place
Dustin Martin (Richfield) - 67, 13th
Luke Hodge (Hawthorn) - 66, 14th
Bernie Vince (Melbourne) - 65, 16th
Eddie Betts (Adelaide) - 64, 17th
Jack Stevens (St. Kilda) - 64, 17th
Trent Cotchin (Richmond) - 63, 19th
It's worth remembering as you look at this list that offense always gets more accolades than defense does, and the backs and half-backs simply aren't going to get the numbers of votes overall that the ball-handlers in the middle and the scorers up front get. But to watch Alex Rance as a tagger, or Bachar Houli and Corey Enright knock away marks, or Harry Taylor clear out a contest and start the ball the other way is at least as important, maybe more so, than anything done up front. There's no denying, though, the beauty of what's going on in the middle - all of the top six vote getters at the moment sit in the Unanimous section above, and all work the center of the field: Nat Fyfe (of course), Dan Hannebury, Matt Priddis, David Armitage, Todd Goldstein, and Dylan Shiel, with numbers seven and eight unanimous half-forward selections year-in, year-out (Scott Pendlebury and Buddy Franklin).
Busy weekend outside the US - part two!
As for down under, both Carlton and Melbourne supporters are still partying as we speak, after their teams not only won but won in a manner that implies that they could keep winning with some more play like that! Carlton beat Port Adelaide 110-106 in a game that last year's Power team would never have let get away. This year, though, Port Adelaide simply doesn't have the strength to put away teams, to out-work or out-run them like last year on their way to that magical 11-1 start (since which they are under .500 in the exactly-one-season time). The game was a benchmark for both teams, and spells the direction each should head for the rest of the season.
Melbourne, for their part, defeated Geelong handily, 113-89, avenging many a ghost of losses past (including one four years ago by the unholy score of 233-47) and showing an aggressive brand of footy they hadn't been playing very often; here's hoping it stays!
More conventional results for the weekend included:
Thursday: Hawthorn def. Adelaide 114-85
Friday: West Coast def. Richmond 90-70
Saturday: North Melbourne def. GWS 117-61 (with many of the Giants' key players out with injuries, expect more losses in the newest club's near future, sadly)
Saturday: Western handled Brisbane with ease, 146-74.
The last of the "bye" rounds is coming this weekend, with six teams resting and six games on the schedule - here they are, with predictions:
TH: Fremantle favored by 25 at home over Collingwood (FF thinks it should be closer than that).
FR: Sydney is favored by 24 at home against Richmond (FF thinks they win by a LOT more than 24!).
SA: Hawthorn over the distracted Essendon Dons by 44 at the MCG, say the oddsmakers (and they're right, says FF).
Adelaide is favored by 24 on the road over Brisbane (FF sees this one going almost any direction, but we'll stick with their prediction as most likely.)
Western Bulldogs over St. Kilda by 13, says CrownBet. (If they play like they did last week, FF thinks it'll be a TON more than 13!)
SU: Gold Coast at Carlton, and the Blues are favored by ten. (For the first time all season, our ratings have two teams as a flat footed TIE in this game, but Carlton's trending upward and it's hard not to pick them to win slightly. We're taking Gold Coast to cover, though, especially with Gary Ablett Jr. due to return after three months gone!)
By the way, we did some projections after round 12, pertaining to the remaining eleven rounds and how things may or may not turn out - more "probability" than actual "prediction", to be frank. Here's what we think:
Fremantle almost literally cannot fall out of the top four. We don't see them losing more than four games at most, and 18-4 guarantees a top 2-3 finish.
Sydney, West Coast, and Hawthorn are virtually guaranteed to make the final eight, and we have them as the very likely top four teams alongside Fremantle. (All should reach 16 wins, which would be the max for anyone below them.)
The seven teams which have very plausible chances for making the final eight (in descending order of probability) are Collingwood (most likely 12-16 wins), Western (the same), North Melbourne (12-15 projected wins), and Adelaide (11-15 likely wins), followed by Richmond (11-14 likely wins, although 9th would be painful for them in particular), GWS (9-14 wins, depending on how the injured returnees fare), and Geelong (8-14 wins, following the loss to Melbourne). Really, this says a five-way race for four spots, but both GWS and Geelong are in very volatile situations, and could very possibly pass several of the teams we have listed above them if things play out well for them.
Below them, we can't see any way for the other seven teams to reach the finals this year, including the two biggest disappointments: Port Adelaide (max 11 wins) and Essendon (same). We'd be willing to bet on a new coach in Essendon by season's end, as Hird's behavior gets more erratic without explanation. Below them, three teams with positive growth models: Melbourne (10 win max), St. Kilda (7 win max), and Carlton (6 win max); while the Queensland coast fights it out for the Wooden Spoon - Gold Coast and Brisbane, both of which project out at 3 1/2 wins a piece right now, with the chance to win a few more, OR to lose the rest of the games this season. (And if Rodney Eade gets another year at Gold Coast, there's something going on we don't know about yet...)
Melbourne, for their part, defeated Geelong handily, 113-89, avenging many a ghost of losses past (including one four years ago by the unholy score of 233-47) and showing an aggressive brand of footy they hadn't been playing very often; here's hoping it stays!
More conventional results for the weekend included:
Thursday: Hawthorn def. Adelaide 114-85
Friday: West Coast def. Richmond 90-70
Saturday: North Melbourne def. GWS 117-61 (with many of the Giants' key players out with injuries, expect more losses in the newest club's near future, sadly)
Saturday: Western handled Brisbane with ease, 146-74.
The last of the "bye" rounds is coming this weekend, with six teams resting and six games on the schedule - here they are, with predictions:
TH: Fremantle favored by 25 at home over Collingwood (FF thinks it should be closer than that).
FR: Sydney is favored by 24 at home against Richmond (FF thinks they win by a LOT more than 24!).
SA: Hawthorn over the distracted Essendon Dons by 44 at the MCG, say the oddsmakers (and they're right, says FF).
Adelaide is favored by 24 on the road over Brisbane (FF sees this one going almost any direction, but we'll stick with their prediction as most likely.)
Western Bulldogs over St. Kilda by 13, says CrownBet. (If they play like they did last week, FF thinks it'll be a TON more than 13!)
SU: Gold Coast at Carlton, and the Blues are favored by ten. (For the first time all season, our ratings have two teams as a flat footed TIE in this game, but Carlton's trending upward and it's hard not to pick them to win slightly. We're taking Gold Coast to cover, though, especially with Gary Ablett Jr. due to return after three months gone!)
By the way, we did some projections after round 12, pertaining to the remaining eleven rounds and how things may or may not turn out - more "probability" than actual "prediction", to be frank. Here's what we think:
Fremantle almost literally cannot fall out of the top four. We don't see them losing more than four games at most, and 18-4 guarantees a top 2-3 finish.
Sydney, West Coast, and Hawthorn are virtually guaranteed to make the final eight, and we have them as the very likely top four teams alongside Fremantle. (All should reach 16 wins, which would be the max for anyone below them.)
The seven teams which have very plausible chances for making the final eight (in descending order of probability) are Collingwood (most likely 12-16 wins), Western (the same), North Melbourne (12-15 projected wins), and Adelaide (11-15 likely wins), followed by Richmond (11-14 likely wins, although 9th would be painful for them in particular), GWS (9-14 wins, depending on how the injured returnees fare), and Geelong (8-14 wins, following the loss to Melbourne). Really, this says a five-way race for four spots, but both GWS and Geelong are in very volatile situations, and could very possibly pass several of the teams we have listed above them if things play out well for them.
Below them, we can't see any way for the other seven teams to reach the finals this year, including the two biggest disappointments: Port Adelaide (max 11 wins) and Essendon (same). We'd be willing to bet on a new coach in Essendon by season's end, as Hird's behavior gets more erratic without explanation. Below them, three teams with positive growth models: Melbourne (10 win max), St. Kilda (7 win max), and Carlton (6 win max); while the Queensland coast fights it out for the Wooden Spoon - Gold Coast and Brisbane, both of which project out at 3 1/2 wins a piece right now, with the chance to win a few more, OR to lose the rest of the games this season. (And if Rodney Eade gets another year at Gold Coast, there's something going on we don't know about yet...)
Busy weekend outside the US - part one!
(And a belated Happy Father's Day to all my fellow dads out there! Remember: being a father means much more than genetics, much more than financial support. Be a dad, not just a father. Give your child - or children - someone they'll look up to for the rest of their lives: a role model to emulate. Never said it was easy - but it's necessary.)
The CFL is gearing up for Week One starting on Thursday night with Ottawa at Montreal - and ESPN has announced they'll be showing about twenty games this season on ESPN2! That will include the playoffs and the Grey Cup championship game! Here are our picks from Following Football ACNC for Week 1 - locate us in CFL Pick'Em and challenge our prognosticating prowess! (Probably won't be too difficult to beat us!)
Thursday: Montreal 33, Ottawa 7.
Friday: Calgary 34, Hamilton 21.
Saturday: Edmonton 31, Toronto 28.
Saturday: Saskatchewan 35, Winnipeg 17.
CFL.ca's Nissan Titan Power Rankings to start the season are pretty close to ours at Following Football... here are both for comparison:
1. Calgary (we have them 1st as well, rated at 48.9)
2. Hamilton (we've got them 5th, barely, 29.9, as the center teams are bunched.)
3. Edmonton (2nd on our list at 38.1; second best record in '14, two big wins preseason)
4. Saskatchewan (agree with 4th, at 30.0)
5. Montreal (7th on our list but we could see them rising)
6. Toronto (optimistic - we have them 6th for now but falling as the season progresses...)
7. BC Lions (they're more concerned with BC's injuries than we are - we have them 3rd!)
8. Winnipeg (agree - 20.6 rating, not a promising line on either side of the ball)
9. Ottawa (easiest pick of the bunch - last at 10.1)
So, the two big differences right now are their bullishness on Hamilton and ours on BC. We'll just see who's right over the next few weeks! Also, check out Pat Steinberg's weekly Monday Morning Quarterback column (Canadian style - not the Peter King version, although he's at least as brilliant a writer!).
The CFL is gearing up for Week One starting on Thursday night with Ottawa at Montreal - and ESPN has announced they'll be showing about twenty games this season on ESPN2! That will include the playoffs and the Grey Cup championship game! Here are our picks from Following Football ACNC for Week 1 - locate us in CFL Pick'Em and challenge our prognosticating prowess! (Probably won't be too difficult to beat us!)
Thursday: Montreal 33, Ottawa 7.
Friday: Calgary 34, Hamilton 21.
Saturday: Edmonton 31, Toronto 28.
Saturday: Saskatchewan 35, Winnipeg 17.
CFL.ca's Nissan Titan Power Rankings to start the season are pretty close to ours at Following Football... here are both for comparison:
1. Calgary (we have them 1st as well, rated at 48.9)
2. Hamilton (we've got them 5th, barely, 29.9, as the center teams are bunched.)
3. Edmonton (2nd on our list at 38.1; second best record in '14, two big wins preseason)
4. Saskatchewan (agree with 4th, at 30.0)
5. Montreal (7th on our list but we could see them rising)
6. Toronto (optimistic - we have them 6th for now but falling as the season progresses...)
7. BC Lions (they're more concerned with BC's injuries than we are - we have them 3rd!)
8. Winnipeg (agree - 20.6 rating, not a promising line on either side of the ball)
9. Ottawa (easiest pick of the bunch - last at 10.1)
So, the two big differences right now are their bullishness on Hamilton and ours on BC. We'll just see who's right over the next few weeks! Also, check out Pat Steinberg's weekly Monday Morning Quarterback column (Canadian style - not the Peter King version, although he's at least as brilliant a writer!).
Friday, June 19, 2015
As the pre-season ends up north...
...and the end of a few CFL careers come with the final cutdown tomorrow, we take a look at the final exhibition games and the starting Following Football ratings for the CFL:
- Troubled Toronto handles rival Montreal 30-10, to my surprise (the Argonauts don't play in their Rogers Centre home until August, including having to play a "home game" in Ft. McMurray next weekend. Their ownership is changing and the current owner's not likely to spend another dime on the Argos this year...)
-Hamilton over Winnipeg 26-15, posting a 2-0 preseason after two easy games against the two weakest teams after playing Grey Cup last November.
-Edmonton traveled to Vancouver and beat the BC Lions 18-13. They also went 2-0, but defeated two good teams in Saskatchewan and the Lions.
-Speaking of Saskatchewan, their broadcast went live on line tonight, so we watched them compete marvelously against the defenders from Calgary, who showed their class by coming back from being down all game to score the last two TDs and win 37-29.
Calgary certainly deserves the highest rating going into the 2015 season, which starts on Thursday night. Here's our picks for week one, with the FF Elo-style ratings in parentheses...
Thursday, Montreal (29.6) at Ottawa (10.1) - M should win 33-7.
Friday, Hamilton (29.9) at Calgary (48.9) - C should win, 34-21.
Saturday, Edmonton (38.1) "at" Toronto (29.9) - E in a close one, 31-28.
Saturday, Winnipeg (20.1) at Saskatchewan (30.0) - we see S big, 35-17.
(And in an odd-team league, it's the BC Lions (32.9) with the bye to start the season.)
If you're interested in joining me in the CFL Pick'em contest, go to cfl.ca and register before Thursday night! It's free, it's quick (only four games to pick each week), and it'll give you some insight into the Canadian game! Twelve men flying in all directions, three downs, big field - it's a blast!
- Troubled Toronto handles rival Montreal 30-10, to my surprise (the Argonauts don't play in their Rogers Centre home until August, including having to play a "home game" in Ft. McMurray next weekend. Their ownership is changing and the current owner's not likely to spend another dime on the Argos this year...)
-Hamilton over Winnipeg 26-15, posting a 2-0 preseason after two easy games against the two weakest teams after playing Grey Cup last November.
-Edmonton traveled to Vancouver and beat the BC Lions 18-13. They also went 2-0, but defeated two good teams in Saskatchewan and the Lions.
-Speaking of Saskatchewan, their broadcast went live on line tonight, so we watched them compete marvelously against the defenders from Calgary, who showed their class by coming back from being down all game to score the last two TDs and win 37-29.
Calgary certainly deserves the highest rating going into the 2015 season, which starts on Thursday night. Here's our picks for week one, with the FF Elo-style ratings in parentheses...
Thursday, Montreal (29.6) at Ottawa (10.1) - M should win 33-7.
Friday, Hamilton (29.9) at Calgary (48.9) - C should win, 34-21.
Saturday, Edmonton (38.1) "at" Toronto (29.9) - E in a close one, 31-28.
Saturday, Winnipeg (20.1) at Saskatchewan (30.0) - we see S big, 35-17.
(And in an odd-team league, it's the BC Lions (32.9) with the bye to start the season.)
If you're interested in joining me in the CFL Pick'em contest, go to cfl.ca and register before Thursday night! It's free, it's quick (only four games to pick each week), and it'll give you some insight into the Canadian game! Twelve men flying in all directions, three downs, big field - it's a blast!
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Here's a couple of pieces from Australia on the best the AFL has to offer in 2015
The Age's Rohan Connelly, a superb expert on footy, has his "mid-season All-Australian team" out, and I have to say - it's hard to argue with anyone he's selected:
Back line:
Midfield:
Forwards:
And his four off-the-bench?
Hard to argue with a single name. Here's a great piece from www.afl.com.au on the "firestarters" on each club - who it is that the club leans on for the spark it needs to succeed, especially when it's running low.
And finally, a small promotion for our own list of outstanding players this season, most of whom are pictured above, after ten rounds:
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) - 173 points
Dan Hannebury (Sydney) - 111 points
David Armitage (St Kilda) - 88 points
Dylan Shiel (GWS) - 82 points
Scott Pendelbury (Collingwood) - 75 points
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) - 72 points
Matt Priddis (West Coast) - 71 points
Michael Hurley (Essendon) - 70 points
Lance Franklin (Sydney) - 68 points/
Back line:
Midfield:
Forwards:
And his four off-the-bench?
Hard to argue with a single name. Here's a great piece from www.afl.com.au on the "firestarters" on each club - who it is that the club leans on for the spark it needs to succeed, especially when it's running low.
And finally, a small promotion for our own list of outstanding players this season, most of whom are pictured above, after ten rounds:
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) - 173 points
Dan Hannebury (Sydney) - 111 points
David Armitage (St Kilda) - 88 points
Dylan Shiel (GWS) - 82 points
Scott Pendelbury (Collingwood) - 75 points
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) - 72 points
Matt Priddis (West Coast) - 71 points
Michael Hurley (Essendon) - 70 points
Lance Franklin (Sydney) - 68 points/
NFL update....
Can't forget about the number one moneymaker in the country now, can we? Here's an interesting piece from Fansided detailing what (they think) it will take for each of the 32 NFL teams to make the playoffs this coming 2015 season. For some, not such a chore (New England: show up); for others, it's a bit tougher (Jacksonville: pray for Bortles' deification).
We will hold off on making any NFL predictions until at least August, but we're planning on leading the way with our prognostications again this fall with input on several fronts:
--- Both Sagarin and 538's ELO rating systems are available to us this season from day one.
--- We'll be starting as we always do: no 1st, 2nd, 3rd place stuff until we're far enough into the season to have a decent and trustworthy representation. This has given us an advantage in the past: no pre-season ranking "inertia" to overcome! What you'll get after week one from us will be (at most!) dividing the teams into three tiers (it might just be two), with the eventual goal of splitting into the eight that we finish the year with, at which point we can start dividing those down further as the teams begin to separate more. (The same will be true with college football, on a larger scale of course!)
--- Last year, our predictions were far ahead of Vegas' record for accuracy! In NFL games in particular, we went 10-2, 6-7-1, and 10-3 in our last three weeks of the season, and managed to "outsmart" the Vegas odds more often than not in all but one week of the last half of the season (when we started keeping tabs on these things)! Similar results occurred in the college ranks, for that matter, and we won the Bowl Games Prognostication Showdown last winter, outperforming the Vegas oddsmakers, ESPN's experts, and the Sagarin computers in predicting the winners of the 39 bowl games (we went 23-16, three to five games ahead of the competition!)
--- And if cross-sport expertise is applicable...we're sitting in the top 1% of tipsters in the Australian Rules Football prediction game (out of 175.000 members!).
We will hold off on making any NFL predictions until at least August, but we're planning on leading the way with our prognostications again this fall with input on several fronts:
--- Both Sagarin and 538's ELO rating systems are available to us this season from day one.
--- We'll be starting as we always do: no 1st, 2nd, 3rd place stuff until we're far enough into the season to have a decent and trustworthy representation. This has given us an advantage in the past: no pre-season ranking "inertia" to overcome! What you'll get after week one from us will be (at most!) dividing the teams into three tiers (it might just be two), with the eventual goal of splitting into the eight that we finish the year with, at which point we can start dividing those down further as the teams begin to separate more. (The same will be true with college football, on a larger scale of course!)
--- Last year, our predictions were far ahead of Vegas' record for accuracy! In NFL games in particular, we went 10-2, 6-7-1, and 10-3 in our last three weeks of the season, and managed to "outsmart" the Vegas odds more often than not in all but one week of the last half of the season (when we started keeping tabs on these things)! Similar results occurred in the college ranks, for that matter, and we won the Bowl Games Prognostication Showdown last winter, outperforming the Vegas oddsmakers, ESPN's experts, and the Sagarin computers in predicting the winners of the 39 bowl games (we went 23-16, three to five games ahead of the competition!)
--- And if cross-sport expertise is applicable...we're sitting in the top 1% of tipsters in the Australian Rules Football prediction game (out of 175.000 members!).
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