| Home | Away | Vegas Line | Sagarin | ELO point spread | FF Ratings | My Pick | ||
| 49ers | Seahawks | SEA 6 | 5.1 | 2.5 | E/C (1) | SF covers | ||
| Jaguars (LOND) | Bills | BUF 4.5 | 9.4 | 8 | H/C (10) | BUF + | ||
| Lions | Vikings | MIN 2.5 | 0.8 | pick'm | G/C (5) | D covers | ||
| Colts | Saints | IND 4.5 | 4.3 | 5.5 | G/F (1) | NO covers | ||
| Chiefs | Steelers | PIT 2 | 3.7 | 2.5 | E/B (3) | KC covers | ||
| Dolphins | Texans | MIA 4.5 | 5.4 | 2.5 | F/G (5) | MIA + | ||
| Patriots | Jets | NE 9 | 9.6 | 11.5 | A/D (9) | NE + | ||
| Rams | Browns | STL 6 | 4.1 | 5 | D/F (7) | CL covers | ||
| Titans | Falcons | ATL 4 | 6.8 | 6 | H/B (9) | ATL + | ||
| Redskins | Buccaneers | WAS 3.5 | 7.5 | 3 | E/H (9) | WASH + | ||
| Chargers | Raiders | SD 4 | 5.2 | 6 | D/F (7) | SD + | ||
| Giants | Cowboys | NYG 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | C/F (9) | NYG + | ||
| Panthers | Eagles | CAR 3.5 | 0.5 | 4.5 | A/D (9) | CAR + | ||
| Cardinals | Ravens | ARZ 7.5 | 7.5 | 6 | B/E (9) | ARZ + | ||
CANADIAN Week 18...
| Week 18 | (Oct 23-24) | Rating | |||
| Date | Away Team (record) | rating | Home Team (record) | rating | Difference |
| 23-Oct | Montreal (5-10) | 24.8 | Toronto (9-6) | 29.4 | 10.6> |
| 23-Oct | Hamilton (10-5) | 38.8 | BC Lions (5-10) | 28.9 | <3.9 |
| 24-Oct | Ottawa (9-6) | 25.9 | Winnipeg (5-11) | 25.1 | 5.2> |
| 24-Oct | Edmonton (12-4) | 35.8 | Saskatchewan(2-13) | 23.7 | <6.1 |
| BYE: | Calgary (12-4) | 38.4 |
College games this weekend... By conference...
ACC: Game of the week) Clemson @ Miami-FL (+6.5) - We think the Tigers are the class of the ACC; take them and give the points.
Upset alert) Take Duke (+3) at Virginia Tech.
The rest) Except where we think UVA will cover +18 against North Carolina, we have the favorites covering EVERY other game.
BIG TEN: Game of the week) The only near-upset we see is Northwestern (+9) @ Nebraska, where we see the Wildcats covering.
The rest) Except Ohio State, whom we STILL don't trust, we went favorites throughout here, too.
BIG TWELVE: Game of the week) Kansas St @ Texas (-4) - Don't know if the purple will beat the Horns again as it did two weeks ago, but we see them covering and very possibly winning. Flip a coin.
The rest) Not sure if OK St will cover, but the rest of the favorites will - even 37-point fave Baylor.
INDEPENDENTS: Game of the week) No one cares about Army at Rice (take Rice -7), but we're astounded by the Wagner @ BYU game. Wagner is a winless FCS team...Vegas wouldn't place a line on it (by policy - they don't bet FCS), but Sagarin has this as a 57.1 point margin, and even our tiers have it as 53 points - and we've never seen 53 on our system before! If anything, too, our tiers are too conservative, so heaven help the Seahawks Saturday...
PAC TWELVE: Games of the week) Cal-Berkeley @ UCLA (-3.5) [the coastal big brother/little brother Ursine Showdown has one-loss Cal underdogs at the Bruins - so does our system, by the way, but we're still thinking the Bears will cover] and Utah @ USC (-3.5) [again, the better record is the dog to the big name, but we don't see USC winning this one - Utah covers and stays unbeaten.]
The rest) Don't care. Stanford, Arizona, and Oregon St will win, though.
SEC: Game of the week) Texas A&M @ Ole Miss (-5.5). Once again, the Aggies go into hostile territory as a slight dog; we think they'll fare better this time, because the Rebels ain't 'Bama...Besides, that'll make my pastor happy...
Upset alert) Auburn (+5.5) over Arkansas. The Tigers may not be Top Ten any more but they're still durn good.
The rest) We like Missouri and Mississippi St to cover.
AMERICAN: Game of the week) Also our Upset Alert: Temple (+3) wins at East Carolina Thursday.
The rest) Houston, Memphis, and Navy keep rolling along, winning and covering.
CONFERENCE USA: Louisiana Tech is favored by seven over Middle Tennessee, and we see them winning by more than that to stay afloat in the West to meet WKU, who goes out of conference to challenge LSU this weekend. (Good luck - here's hoping for a Memphis/Ole Miss kinda day...)
Upset Alert) Just for fun, let's pick UTEP (+6) over Florida International.
The rest) We keep forgetting Marshall's still 6-1 and undefeated in conference, even though they've not been Thundering this year. They win and cover again.
#MACTION: Game of the week) More like "Bet of the week" - we're really high on Toledo, as you know, and to see them only -14.5 against U Mass? Take it! Double it! Bet the house on it!
The rest) We don't see any upsets this week - take the faves and the points across the board, especially Northern Illinois over poor EMU.
MOUNTAIN WEST: Game of the week) Utah St @ San Diego St (+5.5) Friday night, matching up the leaders of each division. Boise's hoping for an Aztec win, while everyone in the West has two losses more than SDSU. We think the Aggies suffer a let down this week and San Diego State wins.
Upset alert) Wyoming (+35) over Boise State! Just kidding. Don't know if they cover or not, though.
The rest) Nothing really stands out. We do like Nevada beating Hawaii (+7.5) handily, though.
SUN BELT: Game of the week) EVERY GAME ON EVERY METRIC WE HAVE is in SINGLE DIGITS this week! We should have a whole conference full of games of the week in the Conference that Man Forgot!
-- We didn't pick a winner in last night's game (Ark St beat ULL by ten; they were favored by nine.)
-- We like Georgia Southern to cover @ Appalachian St (-5.5), although ASU wins.
-- We'll take Idaho (+2) and South Alabama (+3.5) to at least cover against UL-Monroe and Texas St, respectively, and we see Troy handling NMSU (no line posted).
MISSOURI VALLEY: Game of the week) If you like close, watch Youngstown St @ Southern Illinois. Sagarin has it 0.8 in YSU's favor; our tiers have it one point in SIU's favor, and Hero Sports calls it a pick'm game! Both 1-2 in the toughest conference in FCS football... flip a coin!
The rest) Illinois St by 3 over Western Illinoi, NDSU by 3 over Indiana St, South Dakota by 14 over Missouri St, and South Dakota St by 8 over Northern Iowa.
BIG SKY: Game of the week) We'll take Portland State winning @ Cal Poly SLO, although we do have a soft spot for Idaho State winning @ Sacramento State, as it's my son's alma mater against mine...
Weird Game Alert) For some reason, Montana State is hosting East Tennessee St, the first year semi-independent school yet to win a game this year. Picking the Bobcats by 28+, not that it's a limb we're going out on...
The rest) EWU by 13 over Northern Colorado, UM by 7 over North Dakota, Northern Arizona should beat Weber State, and Southern Utah big over UC Davis.
COLONIAL: Game of the week: Richmond @ James Madison, where we see JMU continuing undefeated and winning by 10+.
Upset Alert) There are no Vegas odds to base this on, but Towson beating Villanova, even at home, would probably be considered an upset by most.
The rest) New Hampshire over Delaware by 9, Stony Brook eeks out a win over Maine, and William & Mary by 21 over Hampton (Hampton?).
SOUTHLAND: Game of the week) Probably Central Arkansas @ Lamar, two teams contending in the wake of unbeaten McNeese St and powerhouse Sam Houston St, both favored and who should both win by 21+ this Saturday. We'll take Lamar in this matchup, ignoring their down game against NW St last week as an aberration.
The rest) Abilene over Incarnate Word, and SE Louisiana routs Houston Baptist. But, who doesn't?
BIG SOUTH: Game of the week) Purely in interest alone - Kennesaw St @ Liberty. Liberty's been a ranked, solid team for years, and KSU just started football this year. BUT Kennesaw is already 6-1, on a diet of easy opponents to start and warming up into league play, while Liberty's been upset two weeks in a row and looks really vulnerable. Could the Owls win? If they do, suddenly, Coastal Carolina and Charleston Southern have to pay attention to the 2-0 in conference newcomers.
The rest) The aforementioned co-leaders should both win by 14+ this week.
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE: Game of the week) Either The Citadel @ Furman (we see the visiting Bulldogs as slight preferences) or Samford @ Western Carolina (we'll take THESE visiting Bulldogs, too!).
The rest) Chattanooga (@ Wofford) and Mercer (v VMI) are both 10+ point winners in our book.
NORTHEAST: Game of the week) It'll be interesting to see Bryant defeat Saint Francis - the old champ passing the torch? Maybe...
The rest) Duquesne over Robert Morris and Sacred Heart over CCSU; two very poor teams that it's easy to bet against.
And by the way) Speaking of very poor team that it's easy to bet against, wanna take Wagner +57 versus BYU Saturday?
OVC: Game of the week) Nothing really stands out. If you like bloodshed, Jacksonville State over Austin Peay by 35+ comes to mind... (Sagarin has it 41.6 points; our tiers have it 33, which would be the highest in quite a while except for Wagner...)
The rest) The three other good teams in the conference, Eastern Illinois, Eastern Kentucky, and UT-Martin, should beat the three other not great teams, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State, and Murray State (in that order) by 10 or more this weekend. (JVSt is the one great team; Austin Peay is the one bad team.)
pioneer league: game of the week) jacksonville over drake by 7 or so, while the other unbeaten, dayton, defeats butler by 14 or more.
the rest) marist over davidson by a td or more (davidson's terrible, but marist's not much better), and campbell might squeeze a victory out over morehead state.
in the terrible game of the week) valparaiso at home over stetson. when we said valpo/davidson would be 2-0, it ended up 42-35; let's predict 42-35 and see if this ends up 2-0...
IVY LEAGUE: Game of the week) Unbeaten Harvard over once-beaten Princeton by 10.
The rest) Yale over Penn, Brown over Cornell, and Dartmouth throttles Columbia.
PATRIOT LEAGUE: Game of the week) Lafayette @ Holy Cross, both having difficult seasons. But we like HC to win this at home by ten or so.
The rest) Bucknell over Georgetown. and league-leader Fordham over Lehigh by ten.
MEAC: Game of the week) None. Sorry, there just aren't any compelling matchups this weekend. But Bethune-Cookman should beat Norfolk St by 10+, SC State over Delaware St by 14 or more, NC A&T over Howard by 21+, and NC Central beats Morgan State.
SWAC: Game of the week) S'pose it's always either Southern (favored over Texas Southern by 7) or Grambling State (favored over poor Mississippi Valley by 35+). There's also Jackson State beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by more than 3...
FAU/FIU are so interchangeable that we mistakenly picked Texas El Paso to upset the one of the pair they weren't playing this weekend... Please correct and re-read...Thank you!
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