Here's something we haven't posted in awhile, at least not formally... Here are the Following Football ratings system numbers for the AFL and CFL, respectively. (50 is average on the AFL system; 30 is average for the CFL clubs.)
AFL)
Hawthorn (15-6) - 89.1 (set a record rating in their hot streak at 108.1)
West Coast (15-5-1) - 80.1
Adelaide (13-7-1) - 78.7 (at their high for the year, playing their best for the year)
Sydney (15-6) - 76.0
Richmond (14-7) - 72.7
Western (14-7) - 68.3
Fremantle (17-4) - 62.9 (the low rating is very indicative of the way they've played the last month)
Port Adelaide (11-10) - 62.8 (similarly, the Power have played like a finals team recently)
North Melbourne (13-8) - 62.5
Geelong (10-9-2) - 48.2 (the large gap indicates the Cats really didn't belong in finals this year)
Collingwood (10-11) - 43.1 (down from their high of 60.0 before calamity struck)
GWS (11-10) - 40.8 (the last of the "competitive" teams)
St. Kilda (6-14-1) - 27.7 (started the season at 10.8)
Gold Coast (4-16-1) - 24.9 (started at 46.7 before the injuries hit)
Melbourne (6-15) - 20.2
Essendon (5-16) - 19.1 (have dropped over thirty points since round 9)
Brisbane (3-18) - 17.7
Carlton (4-17) - 4.9 (a record low; started the season at 37.5)
CFL)
Hamilton (6-3) - 41.6 (a product of the dominant nature of their victories)
Calgary (7-2) - 40.3 (started the season #1 and has declined from a very high 46 rating since)
Edmonton (6-3) - 34.8
Montreal (4-5) - 33.4 (surprisingly high for a 4-5 team, but their last two wins were impressive)
Toronto (6-3) - 28.9 (surprisingly low for a 6-3 team, but down five points since week 5)
BC Lions (3-5) - 25.5
Saskatchewan (0-9) - 23.5 (indicative of the close losses most games have been)
Ottawa (5-4) - 21.6 (climbed a long way from the sub-10 rating at the end of last year)
Winnipeg (3-6) - 20.4
As for the National Football League and the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision, we use a tiered system, especially at first, to separate groups of teams, refusing to distinguish close differences until a larger body of work allows us to do so more accurately. We strive to start from a neutral perspective for all teams to begin with, but the combination of what we see and hear in pre-season and the recent history of each team does make it almost necessary to break the body up into largish groups - as we mentioned yesterday, we're pretty sure Oklahoma will still be better than Georgia State this year!
So, here are our opening tiers for the NFL, with teams in no particular order:
Tier I: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Seattle, Arizona, Denver, Baltimore, Dallas and Philadelphia.
Tier II: Buffalo, Houston, KC, Carolina, St. Louis, Miami, New Orleans, Detroit, San Diego, Cincinnati, NY Giants, Atlanta and Minnesota.
Tier III: Chicago, Jacksonville, NY Jets, Cleveland, Washington, Oakland, Tampa, Tennessee, and San Francisco.
> Assuming those could be completely wrong is always a good idea - like the CFP committee, we try to start fresh every week and re-evaluate each team on its then-current body of work. If San Francisco kicks the Vikings behind from here to Malaysia, we'll adjust their position accordingly.
And finally, college football starts this weekend! We've divided the 128 FBS teams into four general tiers to start from, but rather than write them all out here, just take last year's final list and draw dividing lines at the quarter marks, about 32 to the tier. That's not a bad estimation of our starting groups! Wednesday, we'll lay out our predictions for the OFFICIAL opening week of the college football season, as well as Round 23 of the AFL season and the eleventh week of the CFL! (If anyone's betting on the last pre-season games of the NFL, when the starters probably won't even play... you deserve whatever you get.)
Monday, August 31, 2015
Sunday, August 30, 2015
Youw Weekend Wesults!
Along the four fronts we call home here at Following Football ACNC, results for the weekend are all in, and they're still sparse enough for us to cover everything in one post...so here we go!
Australian Footy: As we posted Friday morning, the final eight are set, with still one final home-and-away round to go next weekend. In fact, given the results of the Round 22 games, even the placements are pretty secure, at least for the top four (which, some would argue, are all that matter in the AFL).
Fremantle doubled up Melbourne, 108-54, clinching the top spot and the first "minor premiership" (regular season championship)in their twenty-something year history! They will host a game in Fremantle against the number 4 seed, almost certainly Sydney, who wiped out St. Kilda 135-38 Sunday and needs just a win against injury-riddled Gold Coast to secure the trip west.
Meanwhile, the West Coast Eagles, who had a chance to catch the Dockers, lost that chance and possibly their key defense back to a shoulder injury when Adelaide utterly obliterated them 51-1 in the first quarter, and won the game by 57 in cruise control. West Coast shouldn't have those problems against the above mentioned St. Kilda team, and would then host the #2/#3 game in Perth against the two-time premier defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, who did beat the Eagles (in PERTH!) a few weeks back but who would finish third assuming WC takes care of business (and Hawthorn beats Carlton, whom our FF Ratings have them favored to beat by almost ninety points!) The winners of these two Qualifying Finals get the next weekend off and host the survivors of the semifinals, which the losers would then have to play against the winners of the other two games...
...which pit seeds eight at five and seven at six next weekend. The four teams are set, but not the order. Western earned a likely home game by beating the Kangaroos 96-73, and will only have to defeat last-place Brisbane to secure that spot. The other likely host is Richmond, 74-47 winners over beleaguered Essendon Saturday, who will host North Melbourne's Roos in what may very well be the first of a two-weekend double header if the Tigers hold serve at home as they're favored to do. Meanwhile, Western will probably host Adelaide, on a steamroll at the moment as described above (although they played recently and the Bulldogs did beat the Crows).
In other, less meaningful games, GWS beat Carlton 130-51, Collingwood ended the meaning of Geelong's season as mentioned Friday, 110-62, and Port Adelaide continued to irritate Power supporters by showing how good they CAN be and whomping Gold Coast 88-51.
Canadian Football: Labor Day Monday is shaping up to be a doubleheader barnburner up north, as four teams are separating from the pack. Calgary beat Winnipeg on the road handily, 36-8, to go to a league-leading 7 and 2 record at the halfway mark of the season. (Winnipeg is 3-6.) Edmonton sits one game back in the west at 6-3, overpowering Toronto 38-15, knocking the Argos back to 6-3 as well. Finally, Hamilton fell to 6-3 as well, allowing Montreal to climb within one game of .500, upset by the Alouettes 26-23. Those four teams at 6-3 and above play each other on Sept 7 in clashes that will decide the leader of each division: Edmonton at Calgary, and Toronto at Hamilton. Who's the next best team, at 5-4? Why, it's the surprising Ottawa Redblacks, who sent poor Saskatchewan to its ninth straight loss today with a 35-13 walkthrough.
NCAA Football: Sure, it's "only" FCS, but the D1 season got off to a BANG of a start Saturday with the five-time defending champion North Dakota St Bison traveling to the hardest place to play in the FCS - Missoula - to play the #12 ranked Montana Grizzlies. The game was everything it should have been and more: legendary lower division coach Bob Stitt made his FCS debut at UM with his unique flying offense, and was rewarded with a last second touchdown to upset the Bison, 38-35. As Brent Musberger said on air, if that's what we have to look forward to in 2015, bring it on! Several D3 and NAIA games took place on the 27th as well, including one of local interest for us - the College of Idaho upset the #13 (NAIA) Southern Oregon visitors 40-21 to open their season: particularly exciting for a team in its second year of existence. In fact, this blog was born the same day the Yotes played their first game! So, congratulations, birthmates! Here's hoping we BOTH have that kind of success all season long!
NFL Football: Of course, everyone is zero-and-zero right now! The games this weekend weren't particularly newsworthy in a specific sense, but there were teams that looked better than others - Oakland impressed tonight (at least, their first teams did), and so did Buffalo's and Cleveland's. Tom Brady finallly one good drive, his last before the DeflateGate case is settled and any punishment is served. Michael Vick had a good outing with the Bills; Sam Bradford has looked good for the Eagles; Nick Foles for the Rams, and Alex Smith for the Chiefs. Later this week, maybe on Thursday or Friday, we'll put together our Opening Tiers for the pro and college FBS levels of American football - very broad categories, no more than three or four tiers in total, which will serve as our starting points for the Following Football predictions to come this season. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT: we may have gone out on a limb and made some bold predictions as to the overall seasons the teams will have, but for GAME by GAME predictions? We will base our projections SOLELY on the work the teams are doing THIS YEAR, as much as possible, and the same goes for our "rankings". The FBS "rankings" will have something like a 32-way tie for first before we get underway, and THOSE only because there are certain things that are immutable from season to season. (Oklahoma will NOT be worse than Georgia State. I guarantee it.)
Australian Footy: As we posted Friday morning, the final eight are set, with still one final home-and-away round to go next weekend. In fact, given the results of the Round 22 games, even the placements are pretty secure, at least for the top four (which, some would argue, are all that matter in the AFL).
Fremantle doubled up Melbourne, 108-54, clinching the top spot and the first "minor premiership" (regular season championship)in their twenty-something year history! They will host a game in Fremantle against the number 4 seed, almost certainly Sydney, who wiped out St. Kilda 135-38 Sunday and needs just a win against injury-riddled Gold Coast to secure the trip west.
Meanwhile, the West Coast Eagles, who had a chance to catch the Dockers, lost that chance and possibly their key defense back to a shoulder injury when Adelaide utterly obliterated them 51-1 in the first quarter, and won the game by 57 in cruise control. West Coast shouldn't have those problems against the above mentioned St. Kilda team, and would then host the #2/#3 game in Perth against the two-time premier defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, who did beat the Eagles (in PERTH!) a few weeks back but who would finish third assuming WC takes care of business (and Hawthorn beats Carlton, whom our FF Ratings have them favored to beat by almost ninety points!) The winners of these two Qualifying Finals get the next weekend off and host the survivors of the semifinals, which the losers would then have to play against the winners of the other two games...
...which pit seeds eight at five and seven at six next weekend. The four teams are set, but not the order. Western earned a likely home game by beating the Kangaroos 96-73, and will only have to defeat last-place Brisbane to secure that spot. The other likely host is Richmond, 74-47 winners over beleaguered Essendon Saturday, who will host North Melbourne's Roos in what may very well be the first of a two-weekend double header if the Tigers hold serve at home as they're favored to do. Meanwhile, Western will probably host Adelaide, on a steamroll at the moment as described above (although they played recently and the Bulldogs did beat the Crows).
In other, less meaningful games, GWS beat Carlton 130-51, Collingwood ended the meaning of Geelong's season as mentioned Friday, 110-62, and Port Adelaide continued to irritate Power supporters by showing how good they CAN be and whomping Gold Coast 88-51.
Canadian Football: Labor Day Monday is shaping up to be a doubleheader barnburner up north, as four teams are separating from the pack. Calgary beat Winnipeg on the road handily, 36-8, to go to a league-leading 7 and 2 record at the halfway mark of the season. (Winnipeg is 3-6.) Edmonton sits one game back in the west at 6-3, overpowering Toronto 38-15, knocking the Argos back to 6-3 as well. Finally, Hamilton fell to 6-3 as well, allowing Montreal to climb within one game of .500, upset by the Alouettes 26-23. Those four teams at 6-3 and above play each other on Sept 7 in clashes that will decide the leader of each division: Edmonton at Calgary, and Toronto at Hamilton. Who's the next best team, at 5-4? Why, it's the surprising Ottawa Redblacks, who sent poor Saskatchewan to its ninth straight loss today with a 35-13 walkthrough.
NCAA Football: Sure, it's "only" FCS, but the D1 season got off to a BANG of a start Saturday with the five-time defending champion North Dakota St Bison traveling to the hardest place to play in the FCS - Missoula - to play the #12 ranked Montana Grizzlies. The game was everything it should have been and more: legendary lower division coach Bob Stitt made his FCS debut at UM with his unique flying offense, and was rewarded with a last second touchdown to upset the Bison, 38-35. As Brent Musberger said on air, if that's what we have to look forward to in 2015, bring it on! Several D3 and NAIA games took place on the 27th as well, including one of local interest for us - the College of Idaho upset the #13 (NAIA) Southern Oregon visitors 40-21 to open their season: particularly exciting for a team in its second year of existence. In fact, this blog was born the same day the Yotes played their first game! So, congratulations, birthmates! Here's hoping we BOTH have that kind of success all season long!
NFL Football: Of course, everyone is zero-and-zero right now! The games this weekend weren't particularly newsworthy in a specific sense, but there were teams that looked better than others - Oakland impressed tonight (at least, their first teams did), and so did Buffalo's and Cleveland's. Tom Brady finallly one good drive, his last before the DeflateGate case is settled and any punishment is served. Michael Vick had a good outing with the Bills; Sam Bradford has looked good for the Eagles; Nick Foles for the Rams, and Alex Smith for the Chiefs. Later this week, maybe on Thursday or Friday, we'll put together our Opening Tiers for the pro and college FBS levels of American football - very broad categories, no more than three or four tiers in total, which will serve as our starting points for the Following Football predictions to come this season. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT POINT: we may have gone out on a limb and made some bold predictions as to the overall seasons the teams will have, but for GAME by GAME predictions? We will base our projections SOLELY on the work the teams are doing THIS YEAR, as much as possible, and the same goes for our "rankings". The FBS "rankings" will have something like a 32-way tie for first before we get underway, and THOSE only because there are certain things that are immutable from season to season. (Oklahoma will NOT be worse than Georgia State. I guarantee it.)
Friday, August 28, 2015
Bonus AFL coverage on a Friday morning...
Several points of interest as the penultimate round of the home-and-away season begins:
1. With Geelong's stunning upset at the hands of the excoriated Magpies (and we were the excoriartors on Tuesday) in Friday Night Footy (time difference! If you wanna listen to the future, tune into Australian radio!), the eight teams for finals are set in stone, seventeen games from the end of the season! There's still a bunch of position jockeying to be done (places 5-8 - Richmond, Western, Adelaide and the Kangaroos - all have seven losses), but Geelong's spectacular championship run over the last eight years is over. Eight years, eight post-seasons, three titles, 70+% winning percentage (season and finals), and a host of players in their thirties now who have given their footy lives to my wife's beloved Cats and are now on their way out...either now or soon enough. Some tough decisions will have to be made, and it leads into a conversation about how a team handles this scenario, one many if not most great teams have to deal with: how to handle the transition period. More on this topic in a blog post in the near future, I'm sure.
2. Fremantle's wunderkind Nat Fyfe had such a spectacular first half of the season that not only was he the Brownlow Medal favorite for MVP, one betting house actually paid off bets on Fyfe by round eight and closed the betting on him! But between his own niggling injury problems, his brushes with being disqualified for the award through suspensions (a head hit two weeks ago that by all rights should have ended his quest somehow escaped punishment from the Match Review Panel), and Fremantle's struggles as a team over the last few weeks, the Brownlow is no longer a certainty by any means. On our Player Of The Year tally, after ten rounds, Fyfe had 208 points when no other player had yet past 100 - but now, he's been stuck on 221 for five or six rounds, while Dan Hannebury (Sydney) leads the charge up the hill towards him at 168. It's only theoretically feasible for Hannebury to catch him at this point, but with Fyfe out of the last two games with an undisclosed medical issue (I think it's charlielossphobia - "the fear of copping a penalty that would ruin my chances of winning the Charlie Brownlow medal"), the chances are at least there. Interestingly, since Fyfe has missed four (and probably five next week) games this season, it's the second year in a row that the medal favorite will have missed so much time: Gary Ablett Jr. went out with the shoulder injury in round fifteen (and with him, Gold Coast's finals chances), and still came in second to surprise winner Matt Priddis of West Coast. Suddenly, the awards voting will be interesting!
3. Carlton hired a new coach this week: a man named Brendan Bolton, a great assistant at Hawthorn for many years, a proven winner who should bring a strong organizational model to a club in disarray, if he's allowed to (and they're saying all the right things). Bolton will join the Blues immediately, even though Carlton has nothing left to play for and Hawthorn is in the thick of the hunt for a historic three-peat. Wouldn't he be better served staying with the team who needs (and was PAYING for) his services NOW, rather than the one who'll be in the same place in a month? Again, here's a subject we'll be addressing in the near future, in all sports.
4. Finally, a great story: Daniel Menzel, a 24-year old Geelong player who's suffered through FOUR knee reconstructions since he last played in the big leagues four years ago, was the Cats highlight in the Friday night game, scoring four goals, taking some incredible marks (high flying catches), and generally showing why the team was so patient with him. How wonderful to see THAT kind of hard work pay off like that!
1. With Geelong's stunning upset at the hands of the excoriated Magpies (and we were the excoriartors on Tuesday) in Friday Night Footy (time difference! If you wanna listen to the future, tune into Australian radio!), the eight teams for finals are set in stone, seventeen games from the end of the season! There's still a bunch of position jockeying to be done (places 5-8 - Richmond, Western, Adelaide and the Kangaroos - all have seven losses), but Geelong's spectacular championship run over the last eight years is over. Eight years, eight post-seasons, three titles, 70+% winning percentage (season and finals), and a host of players in their thirties now who have given their footy lives to my wife's beloved Cats and are now on their way out...either now or soon enough. Some tough decisions will have to be made, and it leads into a conversation about how a team handles this scenario, one many if not most great teams have to deal with: how to handle the transition period. More on this topic in a blog post in the near future, I'm sure.
2. Fremantle's wunderkind Nat Fyfe had such a spectacular first half of the season that not only was he the Brownlow Medal favorite for MVP, one betting house actually paid off bets on Fyfe by round eight and closed the betting on him! But between his own niggling injury problems, his brushes with being disqualified for the award through suspensions (a head hit two weeks ago that by all rights should have ended his quest somehow escaped punishment from the Match Review Panel), and Fremantle's struggles as a team over the last few weeks, the Brownlow is no longer a certainty by any means. On our Player Of The Year tally, after ten rounds, Fyfe had 208 points when no other player had yet past 100 - but now, he's been stuck on 221 for five or six rounds, while Dan Hannebury (Sydney) leads the charge up the hill towards him at 168. It's only theoretically feasible for Hannebury to catch him at this point, but with Fyfe out of the last two games with an undisclosed medical issue (I think it's charlielossphobia - "the fear of copping a penalty that would ruin my chances of winning the Charlie Brownlow medal"), the chances are at least there. Interestingly, since Fyfe has missed four (and probably five next week) games this season, it's the second year in a row that the medal favorite will have missed so much time: Gary Ablett Jr. went out with the shoulder injury in round fifteen (and with him, Gold Coast's finals chances), and still came in second to surprise winner Matt Priddis of West Coast. Suddenly, the awards voting will be interesting!
3. Carlton hired a new coach this week: a man named Brendan Bolton, a great assistant at Hawthorn for many years, a proven winner who should bring a strong organizational model to a club in disarray, if he's allowed to (and they're saying all the right things). Bolton will join the Blues immediately, even though Carlton has nothing left to play for and Hawthorn is in the thick of the hunt for a historic three-peat. Wouldn't he be better served staying with the team who needs (and was PAYING for) his services NOW, rather than the one who'll be in the same place in a month? Again, here's a subject we'll be addressing in the near future, in all sports.
4. Finally, a great story: Daniel Menzel, a 24-year old Geelong player who's suffered through FOUR knee reconstructions since he last played in the big leagues four years ago, was the Cats highlight in the Friday night game, scoring four goals, taking some incredible marks (high flying catches), and generally showing why the team was so patient with him. How wonderful to see THAT kind of hard work pay off like that!
Thursday, August 27, 2015
Thursday Thoughts on the FCS Football landscape!
As our oldest son is now in residence at an FCS university (in Pocatello, Idaho, thank you very much!), plus we have a college degree with a rival school from the same conference (in Sacramento, CA), and family ties with a THIRD school in the same conference (in Missoula, Montana), we have a particular fondness for the Division 1-AA "championship subdivision " level of sports, football in particular, and of course that affection radiates from the northwestern sector of the United States, Big Sky country, home of multiple national champions Montana and Eastern Washington, former home of Boise State University (which has since moved on to conquer larger kettles of fish), and the University of Idaho (well, you can't win them all...).
So, without delving into conference and overall records as we did with the FBS last week - simply because we frankly don't know enough about many of the programs except what we read in the box scores - we're game for doing a little more forecasting this week in the twelve FCS conferences: eight who compete for a national championship in a 24-team playoff (hence the name "FCS"); two conferences of erudite Eastern schools who simply have BETTER things to do on a Saturday afternoon in December than watching sweaty men hurl spheroids down a chalk-lined parkway field; and two conferences of historically black colleges (not MY name - they refer to THEMSELVES as "HBCs"!) who choose to playoff against each other instead.
So, in only a vague sense of order of ranking, strongest down...here we go!
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE: 1. North Dakota St . 2. Illinois St. 3. Northern Iowa, South Dakota St, and Youngstown St. 6. Indiana St. 7. Southern Illinois and Western Illinois. 9. Missouri St. 10. South Dakota.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE: 1. Eastern Washington. 2. Montana St. 3. Montana. 4. Idaho St. 5. Cal Poly SLO and Northern Arizona. 7. Sacramento St. 8. Southern Utah and Weber St. 10-13. Portland St, North Dakota, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado.
COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION: 1. New Hampshire / Villanova. 3. James Madison. 4. Richmond. 5. William and Mary. 6. Stony Brook. 7. Albany. 8. Maine. 9. Delaware. 10. Towson. 11. Elon. 12. Rhode Island.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE: 1. Sam Houston St. 2. Stephen F Austin. 3. SE Louisiana. 4. Central Arkansas. 5-8. McNeese St, Northwestern St, Abilene Christian, and Lamar. 9. Incarnate Word. 10. Nicholls St. 11. Houston Baptist.
BIG SOUTH CONFERENCE: 1. Coastal Carolina. 2. Liberty. 3. Charleston Southern. 4. Presbyterian. 5. Monmouth. 6. Gardner-Webb. 7. Kennesaw St (in its first year playing football!).
OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE: 1. Jacksonville St, 2. Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky. 4. UT-Martin. 5. SE Missouri St. 6. Tennessee St and Tennessee Tech. 8. Murray St. 9. Austin Peay.
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE: 1. Chattanooga. 2. Wofford. 3. Samford. 4. Western Carolina 5. The Citadel. 6. Furman. 7. Mercer. 8. VMI. 9. East Tennessee St. (in its first year playing football!)
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE: 1. St. Francis-PA / Bryant (winner gets the playoff bid). 3-5. Wagner, Sacred Heart, and Duquesne. 6. Central Connecticut. 7. Robert Morris.
PIONEER FOOTBALL LEAGUE: 1. Jacksonville. 2. San Diego. 3. Dayton. 4. Drake. 5-8. Marist, Campbell, Morehead St and Stetson. 9. Valparaiso. 10. Butler. 11. Davidson.
The 24 underlined teams are projected to receive bids to the FCS national championship tournament, which has eight teams passing through to the second round with byes. Those eight top-seeded teams are anyone's guess, but here's ours: North Dakota St, Illinois St, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, Montana, Sam Houston St, Coastal Carolina, and the winner of the New Hampshire/Villanova clash. The three bottom conferences will get their champions in only, and here's hoping that for the first time in its three year history, the Pioneer League champ will be able to participate without infraction penalties preventing it!
There are also four other conferences in Division 1-AA: two comprised of elite prep universities in the northeast which choose not to spend December playing football during finals, and two comprised of "Historically Black Colleges" (HBCs), which have their own arrangement with NBC and ESPN for the Grambling/Southern game and the new "Celebration Bowl" title game matching the two league champs. Here are projections for these four leagues:
IVY LEAGUE: 1. Harvard (again!). 2. Dartmouth. 3. Yale. 4-6. Brown, Princeton, and Penn. 7. Cornell. 8. Columbia.
PATRIOT LEAGUE: 1. Fordham. 2. Lafayette. 3. Colgate. 4. Bucknell. 5. Holy Cross. 6. Lehigh. 7. Georgetown.
SWAC EAST: 1 Alcorn St. 2. Alabama St. 3. Alabama A&M. 4. Mississippi Valley St. 5. Jackson St.
SWAC WEST: 1. Southern. 2. Grambling St. 3. Prairie View A&M. 4-5. Texas Southern and Arkansas Pine Bluff. (Alcorn St over Southern for the title.)
MEAC: 1. North Carolina A&T / South Carolina St. 3. Morgan St. 4. NC Central. 5. Bethune-Cookman. 6-8. Hampton, Howard, and Norfolk St. 9. Florida A&M, home of the biggest band scandal since Stanford! 10. Delaware St. 11. Our favorite team in the world, good ol' Savannah St, who takes on Florida St and Oklahoma for the paycheck and the 88-0 routs.
So, without delving into conference and overall records as we did with the FBS last week - simply because we frankly don't know enough about many of the programs except what we read in the box scores - we're game for doing a little more forecasting this week in the twelve FCS conferences: eight who compete for a national championship in a 24-team playoff (hence the name "FCS"); two conferences of erudite Eastern schools who simply have BETTER things to do on a Saturday afternoon in December than watching sweaty men hurl spheroids down a chalk-lined parkway field; and two conferences of historically black colleges (not MY name - they refer to THEMSELVES as "HBCs"!) who choose to playoff against each other instead.
So, in only a vague sense of order of ranking, strongest down...here we go!
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE: 1. North Dakota St . 2. Illinois St. 3. Northern Iowa, South Dakota St, and Youngstown St. 6. Indiana St. 7. Southern Illinois and Western Illinois. 9. Missouri St. 10. South Dakota.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE: 1. Eastern Washington. 2. Montana St. 3. Montana. 4. Idaho St. 5. Cal Poly SLO and Northern Arizona. 7. Sacramento St. 8. Southern Utah and Weber St. 10-13. Portland St, North Dakota, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado.
COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCIATION: 1. New Hampshire / Villanova. 3. James Madison. 4. Richmond. 5. William and Mary. 6. Stony Brook. 7. Albany. 8. Maine. 9. Delaware. 10. Towson. 11. Elon. 12. Rhode Island.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE: 1. Sam Houston St. 2. Stephen F Austin. 3. SE Louisiana. 4. Central Arkansas. 5-8. McNeese St, Northwestern St, Abilene Christian, and Lamar. 9. Incarnate Word. 10. Nicholls St. 11. Houston Baptist.
BIG SOUTH CONFERENCE: 1. Coastal Carolina. 2. Liberty. 3. Charleston Southern. 4. Presbyterian. 5. Monmouth. 6. Gardner-Webb. 7. Kennesaw St (in its first year playing football!).
OHIO VALLEY CONFERENCE: 1. Jacksonville St, 2. Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky. 4. UT-Martin. 5. SE Missouri St. 6. Tennessee St and Tennessee Tech. 8. Murray St. 9. Austin Peay.
SOUTHERN CONFERENCE: 1. Chattanooga. 2. Wofford. 3. Samford. 4. Western Carolina 5. The Citadel. 6. Furman. 7. Mercer. 8. VMI. 9. East Tennessee St. (in its first year playing football!)
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE: 1. St. Francis-PA / Bryant (winner gets the playoff bid). 3-5. Wagner, Sacred Heart, and Duquesne. 6. Central Connecticut. 7. Robert Morris.
PIONEER FOOTBALL LEAGUE: 1. Jacksonville. 2. San Diego. 3. Dayton. 4. Drake. 5-8. Marist, Campbell, Morehead St and Stetson. 9. Valparaiso. 10. Butler. 11. Davidson.
The 24 underlined teams are projected to receive bids to the FCS national championship tournament, which has eight teams passing through to the second round with byes. Those eight top-seeded teams are anyone's guess, but here's ours: North Dakota St, Illinois St, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington, Montana, Sam Houston St, Coastal Carolina, and the winner of the New Hampshire/Villanova clash. The three bottom conferences will get their champions in only, and here's hoping that for the first time in its three year history, the Pioneer League champ will be able to participate without infraction penalties preventing it!
There are also four other conferences in Division 1-AA: two comprised of elite prep universities in the northeast which choose not to spend December playing football during finals, and two comprised of "Historically Black Colleges" (HBCs), which have their own arrangement with NBC and ESPN for the Grambling/Southern game and the new "Celebration Bowl" title game matching the two league champs. Here are projections for these four leagues:
IVY LEAGUE: 1. Harvard (again!). 2. Dartmouth. 3. Yale. 4-6. Brown, Princeton, and Penn. 7. Cornell. 8. Columbia.
PATRIOT LEAGUE: 1. Fordham. 2. Lafayette. 3. Colgate. 4. Bucknell. 5. Holy Cross. 6. Lehigh. 7. Georgetown.
SWAC EAST: 1 Alcorn St. 2. Alabama St. 3. Alabama A&M. 4. Mississippi Valley St. 5. Jackson St.
SWAC WEST: 1. Southern. 2. Grambling St. 3. Prairie View A&M. 4-5. Texas Southern and Arkansas Pine Bluff. (Alcorn St over Southern for the title.)
MEAC: 1. North Carolina A&T / South Carolina St. 3. Morgan St. 4. NC Central. 5. Bethune-Cookman. 6-8. Hampton, Howard, and Norfolk St. 9. Florida A&M, home of the biggest band scandal since Stanford! 10. Delaware St. 11. Our favorite team in the world, good ol' Savannah St, who takes on Florida St and Oklahoma for the paycheck and the 88-0 routs.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Prophecies Phor Week Phour!
PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL for the PHOURTH week of AUGUST, 2015...
AFL, round 22: TWO weeks left in the home-and-away season, and the final eight are jockeying for position. Actually, the final NINE are jockeying for EIGHT positions, as we see Geelong and Adelaide coming down to the final game next week for the number eight post!
Geelong over Collingwood by 24
GWS over Carlton by 20
Hawthorn over Brisbane by 80
Western over North Melbourne by 7 (best game of the weekend!)
Richmond over Essendon by 38
Port Adelaide over Gold Coast by 42
West Coast over Adelaide by 10 (second best game of the weekend!)
Sydney over St. Kilda by 14 if Buddy Franklin sits out (and by 28 if he plays!)
Fremantle over Melbourne by 27.
This would put Fremantle and West Coast locked into the two home qualifying finals slots, Hawthorn and Sydney close to locked in to the other two qualifying finals spots, Richmond and Western into slots five and six, potentially hosting elimination finals, North in the seven slot, and Adelaide awaiting its game with Geelong the next Saturday for the eighth spot.
CFL, round 10: Approaching the halfway point of the season, and there's starting to be some separation after a WILD first few weeks this summer! Here's Round Ten's forecast...
Hamilton over Montreal big, 50-21.
Edmonton defeats Toronto, 24-13.
Calgary over a gallant Winnipeg, 35-22.
Ottawa hold off Saskatchewan, 28-25.
THE NCAA SEASON STARTS THIS WEEKEND! Okay, only one game happens this weekend, and it's at the FCS (Division 1-AA) level, but it's a dandy! The perennial defending FCS national champion North Dakota State Bison travel to Missoula, Montana, this Saturday, to open the 2015 NCAA college football season against the traditional powerhouse Montana Grizzlies. I think this is a fantastic way to start the year! Too often the headlines go to the Alabama v Wisconsin game, or the Ohio St v Virginia Tech game that lead off the Labor Day weekend schedule. But to give the spotlight to the FCS at all is super, and then to arguably the two most notable teams in that division is intelligent beyond belief for the NCAA, who (let's face it) isn't exactly known for their brilliant decisions. (And, by the way, we're taking the defending champions NDSU by a touchdown.)
And while week three of the NFL PRE-SEASON is the most interesting and productive in terms of seeing starters play in competition, it won't make the games predictable. When the game is on the line, like it was when Seattle was down 14-13 at KC last Saturday, it was the third and fourth teams who decided the game for them. WHO is it that bets on these games?
But, there are some geographically interesting games: Jets "at" Giants...Washington at Baltimore...Indy at KC...Pittsburgh at Buffalo...Atlanta at Miami...Houston at New Orleans. Adrian Peterson has the opportunity to impress the Dallas audience in a job audition. Johnny Manziel plays at the home of Jamies Winston. Oft-doubted Jay Cutler plays against oft-doubted Andy Dalton. It's going to be an interesting weekend!
AFL, round 22: TWO weeks left in the home-and-away season, and the final eight are jockeying for position. Actually, the final NINE are jockeying for EIGHT positions, as we see Geelong and Adelaide coming down to the final game next week for the number eight post!
Geelong over Collingwood by 24
GWS over Carlton by 20
Hawthorn over Brisbane by 80
Western over North Melbourne by 7 (best game of the weekend!)
Richmond over Essendon by 38
Port Adelaide over Gold Coast by 42
West Coast over Adelaide by 10 (second best game of the weekend!)
Sydney over St. Kilda by 14 if Buddy Franklin sits out (and by 28 if he plays!)
Fremantle over Melbourne by 27.
This would put Fremantle and West Coast locked into the two home qualifying finals slots, Hawthorn and Sydney close to locked in to the other two qualifying finals spots, Richmond and Western into slots five and six, potentially hosting elimination finals, North in the seven slot, and Adelaide awaiting its game with Geelong the next Saturday for the eighth spot.
CFL, round 10: Approaching the halfway point of the season, and there's starting to be some separation after a WILD first few weeks this summer! Here's Round Ten's forecast...
Hamilton over Montreal big, 50-21.
Edmonton defeats Toronto, 24-13.
Calgary over a gallant Winnipeg, 35-22.
Ottawa hold off Saskatchewan, 28-25.
THE NCAA SEASON STARTS THIS WEEKEND! Okay, only one game happens this weekend, and it's at the FCS (Division 1-AA) level, but it's a dandy! The perennial defending FCS national champion North Dakota State Bison travel to Missoula, Montana, this Saturday, to open the 2015 NCAA college football season against the traditional powerhouse Montana Grizzlies. I think this is a fantastic way to start the year! Too often the headlines go to the Alabama v Wisconsin game, or the Ohio St v Virginia Tech game that lead off the Labor Day weekend schedule. But to give the spotlight to the FCS at all is super, and then to arguably the two most notable teams in that division is intelligent beyond belief for the NCAA, who (let's face it) isn't exactly known for their brilliant decisions. (And, by the way, we're taking the defending champions NDSU by a touchdown.)
And while week three of the NFL PRE-SEASON is the most interesting and productive in terms of seeing starters play in competition, it won't make the games predictable. When the game is on the line, like it was when Seattle was down 14-13 at KC last Saturday, it was the third and fourth teams who decided the game for them. WHO is it that bets on these games?
But, there are some geographically interesting games: Jets "at" Giants...Washington at Baltimore...Indy at KC...Pittsburgh at Buffalo...Atlanta at Miami...Houston at New Orleans. Adrian Peterson has the opportunity to impress the Dallas audience in a job audition. Johnny Manziel plays at the home of Jamies Winston. Oft-doubted Jay Cutler plays against oft-doubted Andy Dalton. It's going to be an interesting weekend!
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 4!
Things are looking UP if you're a fan of young quarterbacks!
This weekend saw some very positive performances from the two start 2015 draft picks, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee and Jamies Winston in Tampa Bay! Both started for their teams, both have had glowing reports for their performances and behavior in camp (when was the last negative Winston story you've heard?), and this weekend they each demonstrated their command of the new offenses they've been hired to run. Remember, these two teams were 2-14 last year, and there are STILL a ton of problems, but they look to have the possibility of strong leadership in the pocket for a while to come. (The caveat of the dangers of injury for a scampering quarterback come into play, Right, RG3?) More exciting for us was the strong performances of Johnny Manziel in Cleveland, who looks to actually be challenging for a starting position, as does EJ Manuel in Buffalo, although in his case it's to regain it. MOST exciting, if you really think about it, is the play of Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota. He went 10-14 this weekend with a TD, and his leadership of that young Viking team is remarkable. Between him and the young coach Mike Zimmer, there are some truly amazing possibilities for a team that suddenly can combine a competent defense and a good passing game with the god-like running abilities of excoriated running back Adrian Peterson, back from suspension for child abuse. (Understand. please: I'm a teacher. I have five children myself. You do not whomp a child the way Mr. Peterson did. Having said that, he has served his punishment. Welcome him back, and let the man do the job he was trained to make a living at.)
Things are looking DOWN if you're a fan of COLLINGWOOD or ESSENDON.
There are so many good stories in the AFL - the one-two western punch of Freo and West Coast; the ascendance of the young GWS and St. Kilda clubs, the strength and stability of the traditionally erratic Richmond and North Melbourne teams, the possibility of a three-peat from the amazingly talented Hawthorn Hawks, and most excitingly, the run-and-gun style of play that's made the Western Bulldogs one of the scariest teams in the league.
But there are downsides, too, and they are mostly based in Melbourne. The Carlton Football club looks destined to have the first draft choice, so pathetic was their season. But they looked like they'd be down the ladder to begin with (Following Football had them forecast for three wins in February, and we're two weeks from being proven right). Melbourne was at the bottom of the ladder for the last several years, save for the newbie teams, and for them five wins is progress.
Collingwood and Essendon, however, should have been playing finals football this year, instead of losing games by one hundred points as a regular occurrence. For Essendon, the causes are straightforward: the drug scandal of 2012-13, where the medical staff injected players with steroids and other WADA-banned substances without the players' consent, continues to haunt the team. 34 players still do not know with certainty if they might face punitive action down the road, even if they had no part in the illegal actions for which the entire Essendon hierarchy has now lost their jobs. The other cause, frankly, is the now-fired (excuse me: "retired") head coach, James Hird, an Essendon legend as a player, who may or may not have been part of the drug plans but certainly threw gasoline on the fire over the last two years with his bizarre and inexplicable actions both on and off the field. The list of problems under his watch are far too numerous to list here, but the combination of apathy, hypocrisy, and arrogance made him a sadly comical figure by the time the end mercifully arrived Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, the Bombers played with more emotion this weekend, losing by just two points to an under manned Gold Coast team that they should've run into the ground, but who under Hird they probably would've lost to in the second quarter.
As for Collingwood, their problems are only beginning. 8-3 at the midpoint for the second season in a row, they hit a rough stretch of the season where they had to play Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port, and West Coast in a row. Not all that surprisingly, they lost all four, but were competitive in all of them...until the end of the Eagles game. Then came a game against Western, and despite being favored, they let the Bulldogs beat them. Finally, they got a break (at 8-8 and no longer in the top 8) and get to play lowly Melbourne...and lost to them by 37 points. Now it's hit the fan. They somehow manage to beat bottomfeeder Carlton, by just 18, and then give top four Sydney a run before losing 87-76 in Sydney. Great, we're back on track... until this weekend, when Richmond not only beats them, but utterly obliterates them, 147-56, and the Magpies looked like they didn't want to play. At all. Geelong is probably licking their chops right now, waiting for the Pies to show up in uniform only this weekend, uninterested in competing against the Cats.
Both teams should lose this weekend, and then a fascinating game awaits for the last match of the season, on a Sunday afternoon on September 6th: Collingwood v Essendon, with absolutely nothing on the line - probably five or six wins apiece at that moment, so far out of finals that the game was relegated to that last time slot while all the teams who'll still be playing next week are home resting by then.
Monday, August 24, 2015
WEEKEND WESULTS - a day late!
Sometimes the first day of the school year slaps you in the face... and you don't get your Monday blog post out on time! (And sometimes you don't get it out on time and there's no good excuse at all!)
SO, here's your very-late-Monday recap of the weekend's action!
IN THE AFL this weekend, Friday night saw some unexpected clarity come to the top of the ladder when Hawthorn was upset by Port Adelaide 108-86, in Adelaide, in a game that's GOT to make the Power supporters wonder where THAT effort had been all season! Along with West Coast's fourth quarter annihilation of the gallant Western Bulldogs, which ended 162-85 but which was much closer until the last nine goals went the Eagles' way, the two top positions were solidified and Domain Stadium in Perth is going to get a LOT of use in September, hosting BOTH Fremantle and West Coast's games. The road to the first Saturday in October runs through Australia's southwest coast.
Of the other results, Fremantle's loss to the Kangaroos may be the most significant - combined with Adelaide's 131-44 rout of Brisbane, the final eight are fairly close to set. Sydney overran GWS 133-44 to re-take fourth spot, and with fairly easy games to finish the season should be able to maintain that lead over Western, Richmond (147-56 over pathetic Collingwood), and North Melbourne. Only Adelaide is still not quite secure, as a loss to West Coast next week could set up a winner take all game in the final round with Geelong, whose surprising draw with St. Kilda left them a game and a half out but in a position to climb past the Crows with two final wins.
To the Canadian Footballers, Toronto came back from the brink again to beat Ottawa 30-24; Calgary held off winless Saskatchewan 34-31; Montreal won over BC 23-13, and once again, Hamilton overwhelmed Edmonton 49-20. All nine teams have their first bye behind them now, so with eight games each across the board, the three teams who've managed six wins are Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and the defenders Calgary in the West, with Edmonton at 5-3 right behind them. Second-year Ottawa manages a 4-4 record, already doubling last year's win total even with two come-from ahead losses, while Montreal, Winnipeg, and the BC Lions sit in striking distance at 3-5. Saskatchewan, one of the favorites coming into the season, somehow is left still seeking win number one, at 0-8, six games back with ten to play.With two-thirds of the teams making the playoffs, they're only three games out of a playoff position, but still...there's a lot to do.
As for the NFL, there were some very educational games this weekend! We learned that the Redskins are in more trouble than we thought, if they keep getting RG3 hurt like they have. We learned that both Johnny Manziel and EJ Manuel have quarterbacking futures in Cleveland and Buffalo, respectively. We learned Ryan Tannehill may actually deserve the money Miami gave him. We learned Peyton Manning may have nerve issues in his fingertips that are going to continue to cause him cold/wet weather issues like (apparently) they did last winter in the playoffs for Denver. We learned that the Jets aren't as bad off as we'd feared, that the Chiefs have some hope, that the Seahawks are NOT going to show their cards any time soon, We learned that thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, both Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow have second life in the NFL. We learned that the QB future of the league is bright, thanks to strong showings from youngsters like Jamies Winston in Tampa, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, and most especially Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, who has erased the word "future" from his title. But most of all, we learned that what we love about football is watching when 303-pound Mike Purcell intercepts a pass for the 49ers and runs a third of the length of the field back for a fat guy touchdown! FAT GUY TD's ARE OUR RAISON d'EXISTENCE!
SO, here's your very-late-Monday recap of the weekend's action!
IN THE AFL this weekend, Friday night saw some unexpected clarity come to the top of the ladder when Hawthorn was upset by Port Adelaide 108-86, in Adelaide, in a game that's GOT to make the Power supporters wonder where THAT effort had been all season! Along with West Coast's fourth quarter annihilation of the gallant Western Bulldogs, which ended 162-85 but which was much closer until the last nine goals went the Eagles' way, the two top positions were solidified and Domain Stadium in Perth is going to get a LOT of use in September, hosting BOTH Fremantle and West Coast's games. The road to the first Saturday in October runs through Australia's southwest coast.
Of the other results, Fremantle's loss to the Kangaroos may be the most significant - combined with Adelaide's 131-44 rout of Brisbane, the final eight are fairly close to set. Sydney overran GWS 133-44 to re-take fourth spot, and with fairly easy games to finish the season should be able to maintain that lead over Western, Richmond (147-56 over pathetic Collingwood), and North Melbourne. Only Adelaide is still not quite secure, as a loss to West Coast next week could set up a winner take all game in the final round with Geelong, whose surprising draw with St. Kilda left them a game and a half out but in a position to climb past the Crows with two final wins.
To the Canadian Footballers, Toronto came back from the brink again to beat Ottawa 30-24; Calgary held off winless Saskatchewan 34-31; Montreal won over BC 23-13, and once again, Hamilton overwhelmed Edmonton 49-20. All nine teams have their first bye behind them now, so with eight games each across the board, the three teams who've managed six wins are Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and the defenders Calgary in the West, with Edmonton at 5-3 right behind them. Second-year Ottawa manages a 4-4 record, already doubling last year's win total even with two come-from ahead losses, while Montreal, Winnipeg, and the BC Lions sit in striking distance at 3-5. Saskatchewan, one of the favorites coming into the season, somehow is left still seeking win number one, at 0-8, six games back with ten to play.With two-thirds of the teams making the playoffs, they're only three games out of a playoff position, but still...there's a lot to do.
As for the NFL, there were some very educational games this weekend! We learned that the Redskins are in more trouble than we thought, if they keep getting RG3 hurt like they have. We learned that both Johnny Manziel and EJ Manuel have quarterbacking futures in Cleveland and Buffalo, respectively. We learned Ryan Tannehill may actually deserve the money Miami gave him. We learned Peyton Manning may have nerve issues in his fingertips that are going to continue to cause him cold/wet weather issues like (apparently) they did last winter in the playoffs for Denver. We learned that the Jets aren't as bad off as we'd feared, that the Chiefs have some hope, that the Seahawks are NOT going to show their cards any time soon, We learned that thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles, both Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow have second life in the NFL. We learned that the QB future of the league is bright, thanks to strong showings from youngsters like Jamies Winston in Tampa, Marcus Mariota in Tennessee, and most especially Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota, who has erased the word "future" from his title. But most of all, we learned that what we love about football is watching when 303-pound Mike Purcell intercepts a pass for the 49ers and runs a third of the length of the field back for a fat guy touchdown! FAT GUY TD's ARE OUR RAISON d'EXISTENCE!
Saturday, August 22, 2015
All Ten D1 Conferences Forecast for 2015!
Having completed our examination of the ten conferences in division one-A (five Power Five conferences and five Group of Five conferences), we came up with some suprising predictions, mostly because of when and where certain pairs of rivals happen to play each other. All position ties are broken by head to head results whenever possible. (For example, LSU should defeat Auburn.) We'll follow up with the overall records a bit later, but these are the in-conference records we project for the upcoming season:
SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)
PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)
BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)
BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)
ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)
Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6).
American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)
Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)
Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)
Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)
Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)
So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.
SEC West: 1. Alabama (7-1, 11-1), 2. LSU (6-2, 10-2), 3. Auburn (6-2, 10-2), 4. Ole Miss (5-3, 9-3), 5. Texas A&M (4-4, 8-4), 6. Arkansas (2-6, 6-6), 7. Mississippi St (2-6, 6-6).
SEC East: 1. Georgia (6-2, 10-2), 2. Tennessee (6-2, 10-2), 3. Missouri (4-4, 8-4), 4. South Carolina (3-5, 6-6), 5. Kentucky (2-6, 5-7), 6. Florida (1-7, 4-8), 7. Vanderbilt (0-8, 3-9).
(Alabama def. Georgia for championship; CFP bound.)
PAC-12 North: 1. Oregon (8-1, 10-2), 2. Stanford (7-2, even beating UO!, 9-3), 3. California (3-6, 5-7), 4. Washington (2-7, 4-8), 5. Washington St (2-7, 4-8), 6. Oregon St (1-8, 3-9).
PAC-12 South: 1. UCLA (8-1, 11-1), 2. USC (7-2, 10-2), 3. Arizona St (6-3, 8-4), 4. Arizona (5-4, 8-4), 5. Utah (4-5, 6-6), 6. Colorado (0-9, 2-10).
(Oregon defeats UCLA for championship; CFP bound.)
BIG 12: 1. TCU (9-0, 11-1), 2. Baylor (8-1, 11-1), 3. Oklahoma (7-2, 9-3), 4. Texas (6-3, 8-4), 5. Oklahoma St (4-5, 7-5), 6. West Virginia (4-5, 7-5), 7. Kansas St (3-6, 6-6), 8. Texas Tech (2-7, 4-8), 9. Iowa St (1-8, 2-10) 10. Kansas (1-8, 2-10).
(TCU goes to CFP.)
BIG 10 East: 1. Ohio St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Michigan St (7-1, 11-1), 3. Penn St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Michigan (5-3, 9-3), 5. Indiana (2-6, 5-7), 6. Maryland (1-7, 4-8), 7. Rutgers (1-7, 5-7).
BIG 10 West: 1. Wisconsin (7-1, 10-2), 2. Minnesota (6-2, 10-2), 3. Nebraska (5-3, 7-5), 4. Iowa (4-4, 8-4), 5. Northwestern (2-6, 4-8), 6. Illinois (1-7, 4-8), 7. Purdue (0-8, 1-11).
(Ohio St defeats Wisconsin - again; CFP bound.)
ACC Atlantic: 1. Clemson (7-1, 11-1), 2. Florida St (6-2, 10-2), 3. North Carolina St (6-2, 10-2), 4. Louisville (5-3, 8-4), 5. Boston College (2-6, 4-8), 6. Syracuse (1-7, 4-8), 7. Wake Forest (0-8, 2-10).
ACC Coastal: 1. Virginia Tech (7-1, 10-2), 2. Georgia Tech (6-2, 8-4), 3. Duke (5-3, 9-3), 4. Miami-FL (4-4, 7-5), 5. North Carolina (4-4, 8-4), 6. Pitt (2-6, 4-8), 7. Virginia (0-8, 1-11).
(Clemson defeats Virginia Tech, but will be the odd team out of the CFP.)
Independents: Notre Dame (10-2), BYU (7-5), Army-West Point (6-6).
American East: 1. Central Florida (7-1, 9-3), 2. East Carolina (6-2, 7-5), 3. Cincinnati (5-3, 8-4), 4. Temple (5-3, 7-5), 5. South Florida (2-6, 3-9), 6. U Conn (1-7, 2-10).
American West: 1. Houston (7-1, 10-2), 2. Memphis (6-2, 8-4), 3. Navy (5-3, 8-4), 4. SMU (2-6, 3-9), 5. Tulane (2-6, 4-8), 6. Tulsa (0-8, 2-10).
(Central Florida defeats Houston for championship.)
Mountain West MTN: 1. Boise St (8-0, 12-0), 2. Utah St (7-1, 8-4), 3. Colorado St (6-2, 9-3), 4. Air Force (5-3, 7-5), 5. Wyoming (2-6, 4-8), 6. New Mexico (1-7, 4-8).
Mountain West WST: 1. San Diego St (6-2, 7-5), 2. Nevada (5-3, 7-5). 3. San Jose St (3-5, 4-8), 4. Fresno St (3-5, 4-8), 5. UNLV 1-7, 2-10), 6. Hawai'i (1-7, 3-10).
(Boise St defeats San Diego St, qualifies for New Year's Six Bowls.)
Conf USA East: 1. Marshall (8-0, 12-0), 2. Western Kentucky (7-1, 9-3), 3. Middle Tennessee (5-3, 6-6), 4. Old Dominion (5-3, 8-4), 5. Florida International (3-5, 4-8), 6. Florida Atlantic (1-7, 2-10), 7. UNC-Charlotte (0-8, 1-11).
Conf USA West: 1. Louisiana Tech (7-1, 9-3), 2. Rice (6-2, 7-5), 3. UTEP (5-3, 6-6), 4. Southern Miss (3-5, 4-8), 5. North Texas (1-7, 2-10), 6. UTSA (1-7, 1-11).
(Marshall defeats LaTech, but strength of schedule keeps them from the New Year's Six.)
Mid-American West: 1. Toledo (7-1, 10-2), 2. Northern Illinois (7-1, 10-2), 3. Western Michigan (6-2, 7-5), 4. Ball St (6-2, 8-4), 5. Central Michigan (3-5, 4-8), 6. Eastern Michigan (0-8, 0-12).
Mid-American East: 1. Akron (7-1, 9-3), 2. Bowling Green (6-2, 8-4), 3. U Mass (4-4, 4-8), 4. Ohio (3-5, 5-7), 5. Kent St (3-5, 4-8), 6. Buffalo (1-7, 1-11), 7. Miami-OH (1-7, 1-11).
(Toledo defeats Akron for championship.)
Sun Belt: 1. Appalachian St (8-0, 10-2), 2t. Georgia Southern (7-1, 8-4), 2t. Arkansas St (7-1, 8-4), 4. UL-Lafayette (5-3, 6-6), 5. Texas St (5-3, 7-5), 6, South Alabama (4-4, 5-7), 7. New Mexico St (3-5, 4-8), 8. Troy (2-6, 3-9), 9. UL-Monroe (2-6, 3-9), 10. Idaho (1-7, 2-10), 11. Georgia St (0-8, 1-11).
(GASO and ArkSt do not play each other; the other ties do)
So, a few surprises even for us in our own predictions, once you really dig into the schedules and see who each team plays, and where, and when. I think the stand-out surprise to me was Army going 6-6 this year, but their schedule is paper-thin. Marshall going 12-0 startled me, until I realized their only difficult game will be Western KY, and they'll be SO pumped for revenge that we're betting they win that one, too. Toledo and Akron are NOT the two best teams in the MAC, but they're the two with the fewest losses looming on their schedules! (It all depends on your crossover opponents!). Minnesota going 10-2 may shock some, but their three hardest (non-OSU) games are at home. In defense of Oregon going over Clemson to the playoffs, even w/ two losses, it looks as though the four lions at the top of the Pac-12 (OU, Stanford, UCLA, USC) will loom as so dominant that it becomes inevitable that ONE of them (by definition, the champ) goes to the playoff, and after USC and UCLA decimate each other one Saturday, Oregon should pick off the survivor the next weekend. I honestly looked for scenarios where Alabama, Ohio St, and TCU didn't go to the playoffs, or where Boise didn't return to New Year's Day...but that's not likely.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Vegas' thoughts on the NFL and NCAA
Welcome to Thursday Thoughts, and today's thoughts are regarding the outcomes of the American brand of football, currently in pre-production but opening at a stadium near you in the next few weeks!
Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky!
Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:
A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...
Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.
The other division winners are projected as follows:
Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)
From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!]
Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year!
Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky!
Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:
A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...
AFC East: New England
AFC South: Indianapolis
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC West: Seattle
Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.
The other division winners are projected as follows:
AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)
AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)
NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)
NFC South: Carolina (3 out of six chose the Panthers, with one tie).
Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:
AFC playoff teams NFC playoff teams
1. Indianapolis (#3 overall) 1. Green Bay (#1 overall)
2. New England (#4 overall) 2. Seattle (#2 overall)
[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]
3. Denver (#5 overall) 3. Dallas (#6 overall)
4. Baltimore (#8 overall) 4. Carolina (#14 overall)
5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall) 5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)
6. Cincinnati (#11 overall) 6. Arizona (#10 overall)
[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]
Below those teams...
7. Miami (#12 overall) 7. New Orleans (#17 overall)
[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]
8. Kansas City (#13 overall) 8. Minnesota (#18 overall)
9. Buffalo (#15 overall) 9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)
10. San Diego (#16 overall) 10. Detroit (#21 overall)
11. Houston (#20 overall) 11. Atlanta (#22 overall)
12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall) 12. St. Louis (#23 overall)
13. Jacksonville (#28 overall) 13. San Francisco (#24 overall)
14. Cleveland (#30 overall) 14. Chicago (#26 overall)
15. Oakland (#31 overall) 15. Washington (#27 overall)
16. Tennessee (#32 overall) 16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)
Our meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?
As for the NCAA crown, well, there's one definitive front-runner there, too...
Here are the odds from the top tier of one of the major worldwide gambling sites as of this week:
Winner of the 2016 NCAA (Division 1A) FBS Championship Game
Ohio State (5 to 1 odds)
Alabama (8.5 to 1)
TCU (9 to 1)Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)
From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!]
Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year!
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
PROPHECIES in PHOOTBALL - August Week 3
(I dunno...y'like the alliterative misspelling in the title or not? Let us know...)
Welcome home to Following Football 2.0, and our regular Wednesday feature where we share the outcomes of games this weekend without the benefit of having actually experienced those games yet!
We'll start with the AFL this week, and there are at least a pair of games that are very difficult to call - the Aussie oddsmakers have Fremantle @ North Melbourne as a dead heat - no spread at all, very unusual for them. Even more unusual - bettors haven't moved that line either direction! We're going with the Freo Dockers from pedigree (they've played these big games and won them; the Kangaroos are as up and down a team as you'll ever find), but North prob needs the game more than Freo does...
The other difficult pick involves the Gold Coast Suns, as talented a team as you'll ever see but with more injuries than the Spartan army in 300, hosting the Essendon Bombers, who just strongly suggested to their coach that his presence would be better off done without for the foreseeable future. The Dons are another talented team, finalists last year, suffering from the shadow of the drug scandal that's haunted them for three years now. That's as may be, says I, but it doesn't defend the lack of professionalism when you show that you simply don't want to play, that you allow middling teams like Adelaide and Saint Kilda to run over you like tackling dummies. THAT part was coaching. I don't know the interim coach from my butcher, but I'll bet that changing to ANYONE else is going to restore enough pride into that team to defeat a squad of second teamers, which is all Gold Coast can muster at this point in the season, three weeks from vacation. Taking Essendon at 2.80, sixteen point spread be hanged.
The other games are all over the board - Hawthorn's favored by 46 over Port, but I suspect the Power will show up enough to keep it respectable... Richmond, on the other hand, should have no trouble whomping Collingwood...Hard to call the Opera House Haggle (not its name, but I like it) - Sydney's fighting for a top four spot; Greater Western Sydney's fighting to make the top eight and keep playing, and it's at GWS. Oddsmakers have it fifteen points Sydney's way; AFL.com's predictor is going with GWS, and so's my heart. Unfortunately, my brain says the same thing it did for the first game - pedigree picks the Swans to beat the Giants once more, though it'll be tight. If either team solves its ruckman issues by Saturday, they'll win...Geelong should walk all over St. Kilda and Adelaide won't have any trouble with Brisbane...If Melbourne doesn't have "one of those games", they should defeat Carlton and keep the Blues at the bottom with two games left...Finally, the most exciting game of the round (maybe the season) is the one in Perth between the surprising high speed West Coast Eagles and the surprising high speed Western Bulldogs - this could be 150 apiece, or the defenses could annihilate each other and it'd be 50 apiece! Home field to the Eagles, and that's how I'm betting, too.
Our current record is 126-44, and we went 7-2 last week (missed on GWS losing to Port Adelaide and West Coast beating Fremantle). Against the spreads, we're 99-71.
Time to look at the CFL, where a very strange thing happened last weekend: all four games went according to predictions. That's right, even though Following Football, the CFL.ca prognosticator Jamie Nye, and the professional oddsmakers all picked Edmonton, Toronto, Hamilton, and Calgary to win...they somehow all DID win! Edmonton had to come from 12-0 behind to kick a field goal as time expired (so to speak - in the CFL, there's one play AFTER 0:00 every half), but Toronto handled Winnipeg more easily than a 27-20 score indicates, while Hamilton and Calgary each annihilated their oppositions (combined score of 100-25). So those four teams now have a little separation from the pack: each sits at 5-2 and looking strong, with Ottawa at 4-3 and the other four below .500 at this moment.
Well, this week, Calgary and Toronto should be heavy favorites against Saskatchewan and Ottawa respectively - a touchdown or so - but Hamilton has to play at Edmonton, which should be a dogfight! The TigerCats have the highest rating in the Following Football elo system at 40.4, but with the home field advantage, Edmonton actually balances that out to a net draw. We're still going with Hamilton, impressed with the full-team supremacy they've exhibited the last three weeks. Finally, while Winnipeg gets the week off, Montreal has the unenviable task of flying to Vancouver to play the BC Lions, who should be able to hold off the Alouettes with their home field advantage, although the FF ratings have this match as a draw as well! Nevertheless, we're going with BC.
We are now at 17-15 for the year with our Canadian picks, good for the top 20% in the CFL pick-em, and on a streak of seven in a row correct. Against the spread, we're 16-15-1.
Finally, we look and laugh at the NFL oddsmakers, not because they don't know what they're doing, but they probably don't know why they're doing it! As we often discuss here, football coaches have many, MANY higher priorities that WINNING, or even the scoreboard, in a preseason game. What is you're betting on when you bet a pre-season game, especially in the NFL? How serious a coach is about winning? Whose third teamers are better? Which team leaves their starters in slightly longer?
Sigh.
Any way, the odds that caught my attention are listed below, and here's why I picked these: imagine Vegas setting ANY of these lines in a "REAL" game between the teams listed!
Washington -3 over Detroit?
Cleveland -3 over Buffalo?
KC -2 over Seattle?
New Orleans -1 over New England?
Houston -3 over Denver?
Pittsburgh -3 over Green Bay?
San Francisco -3 1/2 over Dallas?
Somehow, that last one really floors me! (And yes, our record is still 0-0 this year...)
Tomorrow, in Thursday Thoughts, we'll discuss the forecast for the winners of the American football scene in 2015-16 - both the NFL and the division 1A NCAA.
Welcome home to Following Football 2.0, and our regular Wednesday feature where we share the outcomes of games this weekend without the benefit of having actually experienced those games yet!
We'll start with the AFL this week, and there are at least a pair of games that are very difficult to call - the Aussie oddsmakers have Fremantle @ North Melbourne as a dead heat - no spread at all, very unusual for them. Even more unusual - bettors haven't moved that line either direction! We're going with the Freo Dockers from pedigree (they've played these big games and won them; the Kangaroos are as up and down a team as you'll ever find), but North prob needs the game more than Freo does...
The other difficult pick involves the Gold Coast Suns, as talented a team as you'll ever see but with more injuries than the Spartan army in 300, hosting the Essendon Bombers, who just strongly suggested to their coach that his presence would be better off done without for the foreseeable future. The Dons are another talented team, finalists last year, suffering from the shadow of the drug scandal that's haunted them for three years now. That's as may be, says I, but it doesn't defend the lack of professionalism when you show that you simply don't want to play, that you allow middling teams like Adelaide and Saint Kilda to run over you like tackling dummies. THAT part was coaching. I don't know the interim coach from my butcher, but I'll bet that changing to ANYONE else is going to restore enough pride into that team to defeat a squad of second teamers, which is all Gold Coast can muster at this point in the season, three weeks from vacation. Taking Essendon at 2.80, sixteen point spread be hanged.
The other games are all over the board - Hawthorn's favored by 46 over Port, but I suspect the Power will show up enough to keep it respectable... Richmond, on the other hand, should have no trouble whomping Collingwood...Hard to call the Opera House Haggle (not its name, but I like it) - Sydney's fighting for a top four spot; Greater Western Sydney's fighting to make the top eight and keep playing, and it's at GWS. Oddsmakers have it fifteen points Sydney's way; AFL.com's predictor is going with GWS, and so's my heart. Unfortunately, my brain says the same thing it did for the first game - pedigree picks the Swans to beat the Giants once more, though it'll be tight. If either team solves its ruckman issues by Saturday, they'll win...Geelong should walk all over St. Kilda and Adelaide won't have any trouble with Brisbane...If Melbourne doesn't have "one of those games", they should defeat Carlton and keep the Blues at the bottom with two games left...Finally, the most exciting game of the round (maybe the season) is the one in Perth between the surprising high speed West Coast Eagles and the surprising high speed Western Bulldogs - this could be 150 apiece, or the defenses could annihilate each other and it'd be 50 apiece! Home field to the Eagles, and that's how I'm betting, too.
Our current record is 126-44, and we went 7-2 last week (missed on GWS losing to Port Adelaide and West Coast beating Fremantle). Against the spreads, we're 99-71.
Time to look at the CFL, where a very strange thing happened last weekend: all four games went according to predictions. That's right, even though Following Football, the CFL.ca prognosticator Jamie Nye, and the professional oddsmakers all picked Edmonton, Toronto, Hamilton, and Calgary to win...they somehow all DID win! Edmonton had to come from 12-0 behind to kick a field goal as time expired (so to speak - in the CFL, there's one play AFTER 0:00 every half), but Toronto handled Winnipeg more easily than a 27-20 score indicates, while Hamilton and Calgary each annihilated their oppositions (combined score of 100-25). So those four teams now have a little separation from the pack: each sits at 5-2 and looking strong, with Ottawa at 4-3 and the other four below .500 at this moment.
Well, this week, Calgary and Toronto should be heavy favorites against Saskatchewan and Ottawa respectively - a touchdown or so - but Hamilton has to play at Edmonton, which should be a dogfight! The TigerCats have the highest rating in the Following Football elo system at 40.4, but with the home field advantage, Edmonton actually balances that out to a net draw. We're still going with Hamilton, impressed with the full-team supremacy they've exhibited the last three weeks. Finally, while Winnipeg gets the week off, Montreal has the unenviable task of flying to Vancouver to play the BC Lions, who should be able to hold off the Alouettes with their home field advantage, although the FF ratings have this match as a draw as well! Nevertheless, we're going with BC.
We are now at 17-15 for the year with our Canadian picks, good for the top 20% in the CFL pick-em, and on a streak of seven in a row correct. Against the spread, we're 16-15-1.
Finally, we look and laugh at the NFL oddsmakers, not because they don't know what they're doing, but they probably don't know why they're doing it! As we often discuss here, football coaches have many, MANY higher priorities that WINNING, or even the scoreboard, in a preseason game. What is you're betting on when you bet a pre-season game, especially in the NFL? How serious a coach is about winning? Whose third teamers are better? Which team leaves their starters in slightly longer?
Sigh.
Any way, the odds that caught my attention are listed below, and here's why I picked these: imagine Vegas setting ANY of these lines in a "REAL" game between the teams listed!
Washington -3 over Detroit?
Cleveland -3 over Buffalo?
KC -2 over Seattle?
New Orleans -1 over New England?
Houston -3 over Denver?
Pittsburgh -3 over Green Bay?
San Francisco -3 1/2 over Dallas?
Somehow, that last one really floors me! (And yes, our record is still 0-0 this year...)
Tomorrow, in Thursday Thoughts, we'll discuss the forecast for the winners of the American football scene in 2015-16 - both the NFL and the division 1A NCAA.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
UPS and DOWNS for August Week 3!
Welcome back to another edition of UPS and DOWNS, friends! Without further ado...
UP - SALIVATION LEVELS for AMERICAN FOOTBALL! It's amazing what some meaningless pre-season, week one games with actual NFL uniforms pounding into each other can do to the American, football-starved public! Not a single meaningful occurrence this weekend on the gridiron in the US, and yet tastebuds are prepared, appetites are salivating, and nowhere more than in Philadelphia, where they've been watching Chip Kelly's shenanigans for months now without anything to actually base an OPINION on! So, with four quarters under their belts against Indianapolis, they finally have barroom conversation - most of which will be based around Tim Tebow.
DOWN - SANTA CLAUS. Which reminds us: How BAD of a guy can Santa Claus be if a Philly crowd can give Tim Tebow a standing O before he plays a single down for them, and BOO Santa Claus? Whose opinion do I need to adjust? My opinion of Tebow, or Santa?
UP - THE WILD WEST! If we have to name two surprise teams in the Australian Footy League this year (in an "up" context!), it would have to be the two "Wests" - the West Coast Eagles, based in Perth, on the (you guessed it) west coast of Australia (currently sitting in second place when we and most others predicted they would yet again fail to reach the top eight), and the Western Bulldogs, who are 'western' only in the sense that the University of Michigan is the "champion of the west", as their fight song says. It was a different time. Western IS rather 'western' as the greater Melbourne area goes, and as the state of Victoria goes, which is where the Western (previously Footscray) Bulldogs are located. But Western's sitting fourth after a string of impressive victories, including the most thrilling 76-2 quarter and a half you'll ever watch en route to a 98 point win Sunday. It wasn't that Melbourne was bad, either - it's just that Western's players were moving SO FAST that the poor Demons had no shot at keeping up. From the Melbourne Demon point of view, it was the least embarrassing 76-2 run imaginable. If that makes sense. This weekend, Western travels TO the West Coast in a showdown of fast moving offenses and stellar defenses, and it's very possible that they'll meet again down the road in September during finals...even the Grand Final, perhaps!
DOWN - THE ESSENDON DONS. Finally, finally, Essendon "parted ways" with their 'head coach' James Hird today - three days after yet another listless defeat (and that's complimentary to lists, who wouldn't want to be associated with it), this time to Adelaide 171-59, who ran around them like they were "witches' hats" (traffic cones, Yanks). Quite simply, the players stopped caring weeks ago. They'd play hard for a while, and it would be competitive for a quarter, maybe two. But once the other team started playing and passed them, that was it. And that's what happened last weekend - again - the Dons actually led by a goal after one, 4.3.27 to 3.3.21 (that reads, 4 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 27 for Essendon; 3 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 21 for Adelade). Which means the LAST three quarters went 24 goals to 4, Adelaide's way, and 150 points to 32. And remember, Adelaide's a middle of the pack team. Heaven forbid they met up with Hawthorn or West Coast right now. Hird's departure comes only a day or two after he defiantly told reporters he was still the right man for the job, and in today's press conference he was "dutifully stepping away for the benefit of the players",
If you've followed Hird's insipid handling of the season, you'll get a great laugh out of these quotes from the Tuesday presser, which I suspect...well, read this first:
UP - SALIVATION LEVELS for AMERICAN FOOTBALL! It's amazing what some meaningless pre-season, week one games with actual NFL uniforms pounding into each other can do to the American, football-starved public! Not a single meaningful occurrence this weekend on the gridiron in the US, and yet tastebuds are prepared, appetites are salivating, and nowhere more than in Philadelphia, where they've been watching Chip Kelly's shenanigans for months now without anything to actually base an OPINION on! So, with four quarters under their belts against Indianapolis, they finally have barroom conversation - most of which will be based around Tim Tebow.
DOWN - SANTA CLAUS. Which reminds us: How BAD of a guy can Santa Claus be if a Philly crowd can give Tim Tebow a standing O before he plays a single down for them, and BOO Santa Claus? Whose opinion do I need to adjust? My opinion of Tebow, or Santa?
UP - THE WILD WEST! If we have to name two surprise teams in the Australian Footy League this year (in an "up" context!), it would have to be the two "Wests" - the West Coast Eagles, based in Perth, on the (you guessed it) west coast of Australia (currently sitting in second place when we and most others predicted they would yet again fail to reach the top eight), and the Western Bulldogs, who are 'western' only in the sense that the University of Michigan is the "champion of the west", as their fight song says. It was a different time. Western IS rather 'western' as the greater Melbourne area goes, and as the state of Victoria goes, which is where the Western (previously Footscray) Bulldogs are located. But Western's sitting fourth after a string of impressive victories, including the most thrilling 76-2 quarter and a half you'll ever watch en route to a 98 point win Sunday. It wasn't that Melbourne was bad, either - it's just that Western's players were moving SO FAST that the poor Demons had no shot at keeping up. From the Melbourne Demon point of view, it was the least embarrassing 76-2 run imaginable. If that makes sense. This weekend, Western travels TO the West Coast in a showdown of fast moving offenses and stellar defenses, and it's very possible that they'll meet again down the road in September during finals...even the Grand Final, perhaps!
DOWN - THE ESSENDON DONS. Finally, finally, Essendon "parted ways" with their 'head coach' James Hird today - three days after yet another listless defeat (and that's complimentary to lists, who wouldn't want to be associated with it), this time to Adelaide 171-59, who ran around them like they were "witches' hats" (traffic cones, Yanks). Quite simply, the players stopped caring weeks ago. They'd play hard for a while, and it would be competitive for a quarter, maybe two. But once the other team started playing and passed them, that was it. And that's what happened last weekend - again - the Dons actually led by a goal after one, 4.3.27 to 3.3.21 (that reads, 4 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 27 for Essendon; 3 goals, 3 behinds, totaling 21 for Adelade). Which means the LAST three quarters went 24 goals to 4, Adelaide's way, and 150 points to 32. And remember, Adelaide's a middle of the pack team. Heaven forbid they met up with Hawthorn or West Coast right now. Hird's departure comes only a day or two after he defiantly told reporters he was still the right man for the job, and in today's press conference he was "dutifully stepping away for the benefit of the players",
If you've followed Hird's insipid handling of the season, you'll get a great laugh out of these quotes from the Tuesday presser, which I suspect...well, read this first:
"I'm not disappointed [that] the club's let me down," Hird said.
"The reason for this decision is to enable the players and the supporters some space to perform and be a normal football club again.
"I didn't know it would come to this [but] I felt that the club needed space. There was a question mark there and that was enough to say, let's try something else.
"These players have to be allowed to play. It's not just about me resigning or moving on, the industry has to let them play and give them some space.
"It's not their fault. I think the industry should give them a break.
"My hesitation in leaving this club at this time is because I believe the players still need strong guidance and care, which I hope to continue to provide from a distance."
That's right, friends - James Hird is the martyr here, heroically stepping aside so that the players can be "allowed to play". My favorite part, personally, is that he's "not disappointed the club's let ME down"...as if it's THEIR fault you couldn't be bothered to coach this year when that team so DESPERATELY needed some real guidance and coaching, maybe more than any team EVER in the league's history following the worst team doping scandal in sports history.
Not to pre-empt PROPHECIES in tomorrow's Following Football, but I suspect Essendon's going to play a whole lot better the last three games this season...
Sunday, August 16, 2015
Welcome to the WILD WORLD OF WEEKEND WESULTS!
Welcome back to Following Football 2.0! Here are football results that span the globe, giving you the constant variety of footy...thanks Jim McKay, may you rest in peace!
For the NFL pre-season games, you have to sort of ignore the FINAL scores and look at how the guys who'll actually BE on the team did.
PHI def IND, 36-10 (Tebow scored a td as quarterback, got a standing ovation when he came on),
HOU def SF, 23-10
MIN def TB, 26-16 (Jamies Winston was outplayed by Teddy Bridgewater)
KC def ARZ 34-16 (but Arizona led 10-0 when the first string came out at the end of the first quarter)
DEN def SEA 22-20 (no Manning, but Brock Osweiler scored on first five drives)
OAK def STL 18-3 (welcome to the big time, Amari Cooper!)
CIN def NYG 23-10 (listened to the game on radio - good signs on both sidelines)
JAX def PIT 23-21 (like last week, first string Steelers played well and led.)
CAR def BUF 25-24 (Bills' Matt Cassell 7 for 8 w a touchdown)
ATL def TEN 31-24 (Marcus Mariota went INT, fumble, TD drive)
SD def DAL 17-7 (rough for Cowboys, talk of LA for Chargers)
WSH def CLV 20-17 (Josh McCown has the best quote after theowing a TD to a WIDE open receiver: "He looked lonely, so I threw him the ball.")
CHI def MIA 27-10 (but Miami's first string won 10-3; Ryan Tannehill went 6-7 with a TD pass)
DET def NYJ 23-3 (Nebraska's Ammer Abdullah had a good first outing!)
BAL def NO 30-27 (Joe Flacco led his first atring to a "victory" early)
And finally, GB def NE 22-11 - Tom Brady did play two short series, going 1 for 4.
(Of course, we have no record of predicting this season...we are officially 0-0!)
In the CFL, we actually went four for four, raising our record above 50% to 17-15 and up into the top 20% in competition with the Canada Crew:
Edmonton over Montreal 15-12 (after the Alouettes held a 12-0 lead)
Toronto over Winnipeg 27-20 (not as close as it looks)
Hamilton over BC 52-22 (the Cats absolutely dominated all phases of the game)
Calgary over Ottawa 48-3 (looks more like last year's champ over last year's 2-16)
So, right now Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and Calgary and Edmonton in the west, are all 5-2, with poor Saskatchewan still at 0-7 on their bye.
Finally, in the AFL, round 20, Fremantle got their fondest wish by losing to their fiercest rival, West Coast, by a score of 104-80, going down early by six goals and struggling back in the fourth to make it respectable.
Let me explain.
With the win, West Coast stays ahead of the defending champion Hawthorn Hawks for second, which if it held up for three more games would most likely mean that the Hawks will probably have to travel across country TWICE: once at West Coast, and again to play at Fremantle in the prelim finals. That's a tough challenge, even for Hawthorn. Fremantle is still going to end in first place, even with the loss, and if the Eagles can get past the Western Bulldogs next week, they should be able to stay ahead of Hawthorn for second, and both would host qualifying finals in the same stadium!
By the way, we're up to 126-45 this season, positioning us in the top 2% in every comptitive category of punters predicting Aussie footy outcomes (there are 180,000 in the afl.com.au contest!).
The rest of the games this weekend...
Western led Melbourne 76-2 before slowing down a bit to win by a 'mere' 98 points, 153-55, to solidify fourth place (and as discussed in Thursday thoughts this week, fourth is WAY better than fifth!)...Richmond similarly disposed of Gold Coast, although instead of it being the Bulldogs' brilliance, it was the Suns' attrition as even more players went down to injury in a 138-55 loss...Brisbane climbed out of the basement with a dominant win over new wooden spoon favorite Carlton, 131-67...Hawthorn and Geelong had another classic Kenneth Curse battle, this time with the Hawks winning handily, 121-85...Port Adelaide probably ended GWS' finals hopes with a 111-90 win in Adelaide over a team with no healthy midfielders...North Melbourne survived St. Kilda's first half onslaught and came back in the second to win in Tasmania, 120-83... Sydney showed what a champion team is made up, overcoming a great effort that should've given Collingwood a win, instead resulting in a Swans 87-76 victory...and finally, Adelaide utterly annihilated what was left of Essendon's self-esteem, winning 171-59 after Essendon actually WON the first quarter. Pity the poor Bombers' fans, who watch their team literally give up each and every game now.
As for standings, here they are, with three rounds to go: Fremantle (16-3), West Coast (14-4-1), Hawthorn (14-5), Western (13-6), Sydney (13-6), Richmond (12-7), N. Melbourne (12-7), and Adelaide (11-7-1) fill out the top eight for the moment who would make finals. Ninth is Geelong (10-8-1), GWS (10-8), Collingwood (9-10), Port Adelaide (9-10); then a gap down to St. Kilda (6-13), Melbourne (6-13), Essendon (5-14), Gold Coast (3-15-1), Brisbane (3-16), and Carlton (3-16).
Tomorrow, our regular Monday report features updated ratings and rankings, deeper observations from the weekend's action, and FREE TURNIPS FOR EVERYONE! Yes, that's right, we... Oh. Never mind; I've just been told that we can't do the turnip over the internet thing. Yet.
For the NFL pre-season games, you have to sort of ignore the FINAL scores and look at how the guys who'll actually BE on the team did.
PHI def IND, 36-10 (Tebow scored a td as quarterback, got a standing ovation when he came on),
HOU def SF, 23-10
MIN def TB, 26-16 (Jamies Winston was outplayed by Teddy Bridgewater)
KC def ARZ 34-16 (but Arizona led 10-0 when the first string came out at the end of the first quarter)
DEN def SEA 22-20 (no Manning, but Brock Osweiler scored on first five drives)
OAK def STL 18-3 (welcome to the big time, Amari Cooper!)
CIN def NYG 23-10 (listened to the game on radio - good signs on both sidelines)
JAX def PIT 23-21 (like last week, first string Steelers played well and led.)
CAR def BUF 25-24 (Bills' Matt Cassell 7 for 8 w a touchdown)
ATL def TEN 31-24 (Marcus Mariota went INT, fumble, TD drive)
SD def DAL 17-7 (rough for Cowboys, talk of LA for Chargers)
WSH def CLV 20-17 (Josh McCown has the best quote after theowing a TD to a WIDE open receiver: "He looked lonely, so I threw him the ball.")
CHI def MIA 27-10 (but Miami's first string won 10-3; Ryan Tannehill went 6-7 with a TD pass)
DET def NYJ 23-3 (Nebraska's Ammer Abdullah had a good first outing!)
BAL def NO 30-27 (Joe Flacco led his first atring to a "victory" early)
And finally, GB def NE 22-11 - Tom Brady did play two short series, going 1 for 4.
(Of course, we have no record of predicting this season...we are officially 0-0!)
In the CFL, we actually went four for four, raising our record above 50% to 17-15 and up into the top 20% in competition with the Canada Crew:
Edmonton over Montreal 15-12 (after the Alouettes held a 12-0 lead)
Toronto over Winnipeg 27-20 (not as close as it looks)
Hamilton over BC 52-22 (the Cats absolutely dominated all phases of the game)
Calgary over Ottawa 48-3 (looks more like last year's champ over last year's 2-16)
So, right now Hamilton and Toronto in the East, and Calgary and Edmonton in the west, are all 5-2, with poor Saskatchewan still at 0-7 on their bye.
Finally, in the AFL, round 20, Fremantle got their fondest wish by losing to their fiercest rival, West Coast, by a score of 104-80, going down early by six goals and struggling back in the fourth to make it respectable.
Let me explain.
With the win, West Coast stays ahead of the defending champion Hawthorn Hawks for second, which if it held up for three more games would most likely mean that the Hawks will probably have to travel across country TWICE: once at West Coast, and again to play at Fremantle in the prelim finals. That's a tough challenge, even for Hawthorn. Fremantle is still going to end in first place, even with the loss, and if the Eagles can get past the Western Bulldogs next week, they should be able to stay ahead of Hawthorn for second, and both would host qualifying finals in the same stadium!
By the way, we're up to 126-45 this season, positioning us in the top 2% in every comptitive category of punters predicting Aussie footy outcomes (there are 180,000 in the afl.com.au contest!).
The rest of the games this weekend...
Western led Melbourne 76-2 before slowing down a bit to win by a 'mere' 98 points, 153-55, to solidify fourth place (and as discussed in Thursday thoughts this week, fourth is WAY better than fifth!)...Richmond similarly disposed of Gold Coast, although instead of it being the Bulldogs' brilliance, it was the Suns' attrition as even more players went down to injury in a 138-55 loss...Brisbane climbed out of the basement with a dominant win over new wooden spoon favorite Carlton, 131-67...Hawthorn and Geelong had another classic Kenneth Curse battle, this time with the Hawks winning handily, 121-85...Port Adelaide probably ended GWS' finals hopes with a 111-90 win in Adelaide over a team with no healthy midfielders...North Melbourne survived St. Kilda's first half onslaught and came back in the second to win in Tasmania, 120-83... Sydney showed what a champion team is made up, overcoming a great effort that should've given Collingwood a win, instead resulting in a Swans 87-76 victory...and finally, Adelaide utterly annihilated what was left of Essendon's self-esteem, winning 171-59 after Essendon actually WON the first quarter. Pity the poor Bombers' fans, who watch their team literally give up each and every game now.
As for standings, here they are, with three rounds to go: Fremantle (16-3), West Coast (14-4-1), Hawthorn (14-5), Western (13-6), Sydney (13-6), Richmond (12-7), N. Melbourne (12-7), and Adelaide (11-7-1) fill out the top eight for the moment who would make finals. Ninth is Geelong (10-8-1), GWS (10-8), Collingwood (9-10), Port Adelaide (9-10); then a gap down to St. Kilda (6-13), Melbourne (6-13), Essendon (5-14), Gold Coast (3-15-1), Brisbane (3-16), and Carlton (3-16).
Tomorrow, our regular Monday report features updated ratings and rankings, deeper observations from the weekend's action, and FREE TURNIPS FOR EVERYONE! Yes, that's right, we... Oh. Never mind; I've just been told that we can't do the turnip over the internet thing. Yet.
Saturday, August 15, 2015
The Weekend In Haiku
This feature WON'T be
As regular as the rest,
But, ONCE in a while...
Michael Sam retired.
Well, "stepped away from the game,"
But, two plus two is...
Pre-season football
Doesn't have the appeal, but...
Better than nothing!
Up twelve to nothing,
Alouettes' offense did SQUAT:
Edmonton by three.
Magpies SHOULD'VE won,
But Sydney KNOWS how to win.
Swans finish up nine.
Hamilton Ti-Cats
an-NI-hi-late the Lions:
Three complete phases.
Great night of footy!
Stayed up all night listening:
Then slept in past ten...
Hawthorn smashed Geelong;
Essendon has given up;
and Carlton's now last.
Not a haiku, but an amazing statistic... Friday was the start of the German Bundesliga (major league futbol, one of the European Champions leagues), and the odds of winning the league title for favorite Bayern Munich was 1-12, which means they are SO certain of winning that betting a "dollar" (sorry, I'm American) would only earn you a twelfth of a dollar in winnings (1.08), or that if you bet twelve euros, you'd only get thirteen back if they win. By contrast, every American NFL, NBA, or MLB team had odds of at least 2.5 to 1, so you'd win at least $2.50 plus your original dollar at the very worst.
Would love to say that
The N-F-L inspires me...
But not pre-season.
As regular as the rest,
But, ONCE in a while...
Michael Sam retired.
Well, "stepped away from the game,"
But, two plus two is...
Pre-season football
Doesn't have the appeal, but...
Better than nothing!
Up twelve to nothing,
Alouettes' offense did SQUAT:
Edmonton by three.
Magpies SHOULD'VE won,
But Sydney KNOWS how to win.
Swans finish up nine.
Hamilton Ti-Cats
an-NI-hi-late the Lions:
Three complete phases.
Great night of footy!
Stayed up all night listening:
Then slept in past ten...
Hawthorn smashed Geelong;
Essendon has given up;
and Carlton's now last.
Not a haiku, but an amazing statistic... Friday was the start of the German Bundesliga (major league futbol, one of the European Champions leagues), and the odds of winning the league title for favorite Bayern Munich was 1-12, which means they are SO certain of winning that betting a "dollar" (sorry, I'm American) would only earn you a twelfth of a dollar in winnings (1.08), or that if you bet twelve euros, you'd only get thirteen back if they win. By contrast, every American NFL, NBA, or MLB team had odds of at least 2.5 to 1, so you'd win at least $2.50 plus your original dollar at the very worst.
Would love to say that
The N-F-L inspires me...
But not pre-season.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Playoff Structures
Every Thursday, mas o menos, we'll examine any of a wide range of topics that WE think might be of interest to more than just us here at Following Football ACNC. Most of the time, we'll probably look most at topics that put some compare and contrast between the various versions of the obloid ball game we all love, and this week is absolutely along those lines.
Let's take a look at the structure of the playoff tournament each organization uses to determine its champion!
Length and timing of season vs playoffs:
AFL: March through August (23 weeks); September (4 weeks). The Aussies are approaching the END of the winter season down under, so they're four weeks from "finals" already.
CFL: June through October (20 weeks); November (3 weeks). With a more inclimate winter up north, the Canadians smartly finish up before the worst of Winter weather hits starting in December. Week 8 is currently underway, as Edmonton plays in Montreal tonight.
NCAA: September through December (15 weeks - remember when it was just 12?); January (2 weeks, after a month off). Famously, the Bowl Subdivision didn't even HAVE a championship game until 20 years ago; last year, they very successfully switched to a four team playoff tournament for the first time, following the bowl season (hence the delay). The lower divisions have larger tournaments - 16, 24 teams - starting the week after the season ends in November.
NFL: September through January (17 weeks); January into February (5 weeks, including its all-star game the week before the title game). The "Super Bowl", the NFL's title game, is the largest annual TV audience of any game in the world (only the World Cup in futbol every four years outpaces it), so having a two week break before it must be the right move.)
Number of teams involved: season vs playoffs:
AFL: 18 reduces to 8 for finals. 44% make the playoffs. My preference, along with the NFL. Teams at the top fight for home field advantages (and "double chances"; more on that later), while teams in the middle fight just to get in. About 1/3 spend the past several games knowing they won't play in September, but they really SHOULDN'T be. Unwritten rule: if you can't break .500, you shouldn't play for a title. The AFL avoids that just about every year.
CFL: 9 reduces to 6 for playoffs. 67% make the playoffs. BOOOO! You're virtually guaranteeing losing records in the playoffs, three games from a Grey Cup title! They do make one concession which is VERY clever: after the top two teams in each division, they take the next two best records, even if they're the same division, like last year (BC got in over Montreal, adding one more winning record). It also adds one element of suspense...you not only start jockeying for position around .500, but you've gotta look across to the other division at the fourth place team as well! Still, wouldn't four be enough?
NCAA: 128 reduces to 4 for playoffs, 3% make the playoffs, chosen by committee. Ludicrous, on the surface, except when you recall where college football came from. In reality, the committee is choosing four of the five major conference champions, allowing for a wild card if it makes more sense. In reality, it should do a good job in choosing the season's BEST team, probably more so than allowing the CFL's fourth place East team into the playoffs, or letting the second place team in the Mountain West have a bid in a 16 or 24 team tournament.
NFL: 32 reduces to 12 for playoffs, 38% make the playoffs. Perfect - see the AFL comments. Home field's a BIG deal when winter starts hitting hard in January!
Playoff format:
NCAA: single elimination, semis and finals, neutral fields. The simplest, but they've done all the paring down before they got here, anyway.
CFL: division winners get a bye, division places two and three play at higher seed; winner plays at division leader; title game at neutral field. Good system for six teams, no matter what level.
NFL: similar - six teams in each conference use the exact same format (higher seed home field throughout); title game at a neutral site, usually one without weather issues.
AFL: Unusual format, designed to help the top four teams survive - in week one, #1 hosts #4, and #2 hosts #3. The winners get the next week OFF, moved on to the semis. The losers play the WINNERS of the other two games (5 hosts 8 and 6 hosts 7), while the losers of those latter games are out. So, in the third week, the two teams with the week off host the winner of the loser/winner week 2 game, for the right to play in Melbourne in the Grand Final. In theory, then, a 4th place team would probably lose to a #1 seed, play the winner of the #5/#8 game, and if they win, they'd get the chance to play the #2 team for a chance at the title. Meanwhile a #6 team, for example, has to win four straight games for the title.
THE WINNER? A cop out: they all work for thir respective leagues, although I wish the CFL let two fewer teams in the tourney.
Let's take a look at the structure of the playoff tournament each organization uses to determine its champion!
Length and timing of season vs playoffs:
AFL: March through August (23 weeks); September (4 weeks). The Aussies are approaching the END of the winter season down under, so they're four weeks from "finals" already.
CFL: June through October (20 weeks); November (3 weeks). With a more inclimate winter up north, the Canadians smartly finish up before the worst of Winter weather hits starting in December. Week 8 is currently underway, as Edmonton plays in Montreal tonight.
NCAA: September through December (15 weeks - remember when it was just 12?); January (2 weeks, after a month off). Famously, the Bowl Subdivision didn't even HAVE a championship game until 20 years ago; last year, they very successfully switched to a four team playoff tournament for the first time, following the bowl season (hence the delay). The lower divisions have larger tournaments - 16, 24 teams - starting the week after the season ends in November.
NFL: September through January (17 weeks); January into February (5 weeks, including its all-star game the week before the title game). The "Super Bowl", the NFL's title game, is the largest annual TV audience of any game in the world (only the World Cup in futbol every four years outpaces it), so having a two week break before it must be the right move.)
Number of teams involved: season vs playoffs:
AFL: 18 reduces to 8 for finals. 44% make the playoffs. My preference, along with the NFL. Teams at the top fight for home field advantages (and "double chances"; more on that later), while teams in the middle fight just to get in. About 1/3 spend the past several games knowing they won't play in September, but they really SHOULDN'T be. Unwritten rule: if you can't break .500, you shouldn't play for a title. The AFL avoids that just about every year.
CFL: 9 reduces to 6 for playoffs. 67% make the playoffs. BOOOO! You're virtually guaranteeing losing records in the playoffs, three games from a Grey Cup title! They do make one concession which is VERY clever: after the top two teams in each division, they take the next two best records, even if they're the same division, like last year (BC got in over Montreal, adding one more winning record). It also adds one element of suspense...you not only start jockeying for position around .500, but you've gotta look across to the other division at the fourth place team as well! Still, wouldn't four be enough?
NCAA: 128 reduces to 4 for playoffs, 3% make the playoffs, chosen by committee. Ludicrous, on the surface, except when you recall where college football came from. In reality, the committee is choosing four of the five major conference champions, allowing for a wild card if it makes more sense. In reality, it should do a good job in choosing the season's BEST team, probably more so than allowing the CFL's fourth place East team into the playoffs, or letting the second place team in the Mountain West have a bid in a 16 or 24 team tournament.
NFL: 32 reduces to 12 for playoffs, 38% make the playoffs. Perfect - see the AFL comments. Home field's a BIG deal when winter starts hitting hard in January!
Playoff format:
NCAA: single elimination, semis and finals, neutral fields. The simplest, but they've done all the paring down before they got here, anyway.
CFL: division winners get a bye, division places two and three play at higher seed; winner plays at division leader; title game at neutral field. Good system for six teams, no matter what level.
NFL: similar - six teams in each conference use the exact same format (higher seed home field throughout); title game at a neutral site, usually one without weather issues.
AFL: Unusual format, designed to help the top four teams survive - in week one, #1 hosts #4, and #2 hosts #3. The winners get the next week OFF, moved on to the semis. The losers play the WINNERS of the other two games (5 hosts 8 and 6 hosts 7), while the losers of those latter games are out. So, in the third week, the two teams with the week off host the winner of the loser/winner week 2 game, for the right to play in Melbourne in the Grand Final. In theory, then, a 4th place team would probably lose to a #1 seed, play the winner of the #5/#8 game, and if they win, they'd get the chance to play the #2 team for a chance at the title. Meanwhile a #6 team, for example, has to win four straight games for the title.
THE WINNER? A cop out: they all work for thir respective leagues, although I wish the CFL let two fewer teams in the tourney.
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
PROPHECIES IN FOOTBALL - August Week 2
So, here is our new regular Wednesday feature, PROPHECIES IN FOOTBALL, which just means we're going to condense our weekly predictions into one post each week, on Wednesdays, where you can count on finding them the same time and place each week.
(And of course, if you're new to Following Football ACNC, you ought to know that our track record across the different forms of football is unmatched! Whether it's American college or pro, where we were consistently ahead of th Vegas pros all year long in 2014, or in Canada, where went a perfect 5-0 last Grey Cup playoff season and sit up in the top third so far of predictors in this topsy-turvy CFL season, or in Australia, where our record this season is in the top 1% of all punters in Australia for AFL predictions.... We know our stuff!)
So, we'll start with the NFL, which starts week 1 of its preseason tomorrow with a slate of games. If you bet preseason NFL games, you need psychological help, so we're NOT feeding your addiction by guessing at games where coaches may or may not play starters at all. But a few games stand out as interesting: Green Bay at New England Thursday evening, without Brady, of course (not enough pressure for him), but Rodgers should see one series; the Jets, of course, play tomorrow at Detroit, home of auto wrecks; Buffalo, where Rex Ryan just pickd up his old linebacker just released by his old team (we give him a puncher's chance of making the team!), plays Friday; Jaxville debuts their new QB Friday night, while Tampa goes to Minnesota to unveil theirs against a team with a win under their belt already; for us Northwesterners, Denver goes to Seattle Friday night; and Philly unveils whatever it now has on the roster against Indy Sunday night on the NFL Network.
In the CFL, where five teams whare the lead with 4-2 records, including last year's expansion Ottawa Redblacks, who won half that total in 18 tries last year! In fact, only two teams are below .500: Winnipeg at 3-4, and Saskatchewan, on a bye at 0-7! This weekend, we see Edmonton over Montreal (favored by one) in Montreal; Toronto should go to Winnipeg and win easily with the Bombers breaking in a new QB (what else is new in Canada?); Hamilton has NEVER lost in their year-old home stadium, and won't this week against BC; and while Ottawa has been great, and a win wouldn't shock, defending champ Calgary got last week off and is 4-0 at home, so we see them winning Saturday. (Given how this ludicrous season has gone, where oddsmakers have picked the wrong team more than 60% of the time this season!, you should go AGAINST our picks, since we agree with the other experts in general this week!)
Finally, down under, we are just four weeks from the end of the season and finals month in September! Fremantle has the top spot just about locked down anyway at 16-2, but can clinch it by beating western rival West Coast Sunday, which we're predicting they'll do with superstar Nat Fyfe back, and the Eagles' star ruck Nic Nat gone for the week following the death of his mother. Also on Sunday, Richmond and Western will continue their quests for spots in the crucial top four with home wins against Gold Coast and Melbourne, respectively. (No champion has come from outside the top four since the current "double chance" finals system was instituted in 1997.)
On Friday, Sydney hosts Collingwood and (even without superstud Lance Franklin) should add to the Magpies' epic second half collapse with a win to push back into the fourth position. Saturday, Adelaide goes to Essendon and destroys the already dessicated remains of a once-proud Bomber franchise; North Melbourne "hosts" St. Kilda in Hobart, Tasmania (surprisingly close by), and except for the fact that their performance bounces up and down like their Kangaroo namesake, should win comfortably against the surprisingly decent Saints.
The last three games are the toughest to call. At home, Port Adelaide SHOULD beat the Giants, who have a ton of injuries but continue to battle for a first-ever spot in finals in their fourth year. But they may have "put the cue in the rack", as they say, and GWS has EVERYTHING to fight for...Despite being fifteen point dogs, I'm taking GWS in an upset. Geelong used to have Hawthorn's number; for something like five years, the "Kennett Curse" kept the Hawks from beating Gerlong, until the critical prelim final two seasons ago. Now, it's easy to take Hawthorn again, although personally I'm betting the "over" (181) rather than the winner (prob Hawthorn). Last, the Battle for the Wooden Spoon between three-win Carlton and home team Brisbane, with just two wins this year. The Lions are favored, at home, but I think not only does The Blues have more talent, I think the Lions want that top draft pick more. Carlton in an "upset".
Our record so far this season: 112-60 in the AFL, 12-12 in the CFL (well above average, as we said!), 0-0 in the NFL and NCAA.
(And of course, if you're new to Following Football ACNC, you ought to know that our track record across the different forms of football is unmatched! Whether it's American college or pro, where we were consistently ahead of th Vegas pros all year long in 2014, or in Canada, where went a perfect 5-0 last Grey Cup playoff season and sit up in the top third so far of predictors in this topsy-turvy CFL season, or in Australia, where our record this season is in the top 1% of all punters in Australia for AFL predictions.... We know our stuff!)
So, we'll start with the NFL, which starts week 1 of its preseason tomorrow with a slate of games. If you bet preseason NFL games, you need psychological help, so we're NOT feeding your addiction by guessing at games where coaches may or may not play starters at all. But a few games stand out as interesting: Green Bay at New England Thursday evening, without Brady, of course (not enough pressure for him), but Rodgers should see one series; the Jets, of course, play tomorrow at Detroit, home of auto wrecks; Buffalo, where Rex Ryan just pickd up his old linebacker just released by his old team (we give him a puncher's chance of making the team!), plays Friday; Jaxville debuts their new QB Friday night, while Tampa goes to Minnesota to unveil theirs against a team with a win under their belt already; for us Northwesterners, Denver goes to Seattle Friday night; and Philly unveils whatever it now has on the roster against Indy Sunday night on the NFL Network.
In the CFL, where five teams whare the lead with 4-2 records, including last year's expansion Ottawa Redblacks, who won half that total in 18 tries last year! In fact, only two teams are below .500: Winnipeg at 3-4, and Saskatchewan, on a bye at 0-7! This weekend, we see Edmonton over Montreal (favored by one) in Montreal; Toronto should go to Winnipeg and win easily with the Bombers breaking in a new QB (what else is new in Canada?); Hamilton has NEVER lost in their year-old home stadium, and won't this week against BC; and while Ottawa has been great, and a win wouldn't shock, defending champ Calgary got last week off and is 4-0 at home, so we see them winning Saturday. (Given how this ludicrous season has gone, where oddsmakers have picked the wrong team more than 60% of the time this season!, you should go AGAINST our picks, since we agree with the other experts in general this week!)
Finally, down under, we are just four weeks from the end of the season and finals month in September! Fremantle has the top spot just about locked down anyway at 16-2, but can clinch it by beating western rival West Coast Sunday, which we're predicting they'll do with superstar Nat Fyfe back, and the Eagles' star ruck Nic Nat gone for the week following the death of his mother. Also on Sunday, Richmond and Western will continue their quests for spots in the crucial top four with home wins against Gold Coast and Melbourne, respectively. (No champion has come from outside the top four since the current "double chance" finals system was instituted in 1997.)
On Friday, Sydney hosts Collingwood and (even without superstud Lance Franklin) should add to the Magpies' epic second half collapse with a win to push back into the fourth position. Saturday, Adelaide goes to Essendon and destroys the already dessicated remains of a once-proud Bomber franchise; North Melbourne "hosts" St. Kilda in Hobart, Tasmania (surprisingly close by), and except for the fact that their performance bounces up and down like their Kangaroo namesake, should win comfortably against the surprisingly decent Saints.
The last three games are the toughest to call. At home, Port Adelaide SHOULD beat the Giants, who have a ton of injuries but continue to battle for a first-ever spot in finals in their fourth year. But they may have "put the cue in the rack", as they say, and GWS has EVERYTHING to fight for...Despite being fifteen point dogs, I'm taking GWS in an upset. Geelong used to have Hawthorn's number; for something like five years, the "Kennett Curse" kept the Hawks from beating Gerlong, until the critical prelim final two seasons ago. Now, it's easy to take Hawthorn again, although personally I'm betting the "over" (181) rather than the winner (prob Hawthorn). Last, the Battle for the Wooden Spoon between three-win Carlton and home team Brisbane, with just two wins this year. The Lions are favored, at home, but I think not only does The Blues have more talent, I think the Lions want that top draft pick more. Carlton in an "upset".
Our record so far this season: 112-60 in the AFL, 12-12 in the CFL (well above average, as we said!), 0-0 in the NFL and NCAA.
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
UPS AND DOWNS for AUGUST WEEK 2
Welcome to Following Football 2.0 - updated format, updated focus, better prepared to service you, the eclectic football fan! UP FIRST, most appropriately, our Tuesday column stretching across three countries and four versions of the sport... UPS AND DOWNS for the second week of August, 2015!
UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.
DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!
UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.
DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.
UP - the OTTAWA REDBLACKS, winners of just two games last year in their inaugural CFL season, are already 4-2 in this young season, tied for the best record in the Eastern Division. They've done it with their retread, 40-year old QB Henry Burris, who's held up while most other teams are on starter number two or three behind center, and a team that's willing to keep fighting when they've been behind, winning in 4Q comebacks a couple of times already.
DOWN - the NEW JERSEY JETS, who just reached a new level of Jet-ness by putting their starting QB Geno Smith (already embattled and getting booed in PRACTICE by those wonderfully supportive New Yack "fans") on the IR for 6-10 weeks...after having his jaw broken in two places from a SUCKER PUNCH from a TEAMMATE, I.K. Enemkpali (rephrase that: FORMER teammate - at least the Jets had that much sense!) over a debt Smith apparently owed the backup linebacker for a plane ticket he never used. All parties seem to be content with the resolution, but...I mean, WTF? The Oakland Raiders called, and said the Jets are stealing their schtik!
UP - the RACIAL SENSITIVITY OF AUSTRALIAN FOOTY FANS, after continued ugly booing incidents over the last few months of indiginous star Adam Goodes, which finally drove him from the sport for a week in July. That was met with outrage from throughout the AFL community, drowning out the few confederate-wannabes who claimed it wasn't about race (hmmm...), after which Goodes returned to the Sydney Swans for their game at Geelong last Saturday, where he was met with (in the opinion of the pollyannish announcers) all positive reactions. (I'm not nearly as convinced, myself...) So, we'll see where this goes from here. Australia, you know, has a much worse race issue history than even the US - aborigines were hunted for sport by the white settlers at first.
DOWN - the PUBLIC OPINION OF TOM BRADY OR ROGER GOODELL, depending on which side you choose to take in the somehow-still-ongoing "DeFlateGate" ridiculousness. We side with Goodell for once - you flipping DESTROYED your phone? What kind of idiot are you? And you would then have us believe you HABITUALLY do that, Tom? First of all, if so, you're on a Tom Cruise level of crazy, but even so, why would you do that NOW, knowing how guilty it makes you look, unless (of course) you ARE guilty, which Occam's Razor now says you are. And do you realize, Mister former Hall Of Fame quarterback, how hard it is to make ROGER FLIPP'N GOODELL look like the voice of REASON? That takes a Lance Armstrong level of paranoia and delusion. Congratulations. You turned what should've been a slap on the hand fine (had you said, Oops, didn't think anyone would notice, my bad, before the Super Bowl) into, literally, a federal case, and a four week suspension, and a black mark on your career that will be paragraph two in your obituary.
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