THURSDAY THOUGHTS - Vegas' thoughts on the NFL and NCAA

Welcome to Thursday Thoughts, and today's thoughts are regarding the outcomes of the American brand of football, currently in pre-production but opening at a stadium near you in the next few weeks!

Ya wanna start with the pros first? Okee-doky! 

Here are the combined rankings from six leading prognosticators, including scouting combines, media sources, and casino oddsmakers, on a 4-3-2-1 vote from top to bottom:

A perfect score would be 24 (six groups score a team as most likely to win the division). FOUR teams are considered locks to win their NFL divisions...

AFC East: New England

AFC South: Indianapolis

NFC North: Green Bay

NFC West: Seattle

Not coincidentally, those are the four teams considered most likely to win the Super Bowl this year! Green Bay was chosen as Super Bowl 50 champion in four of the six surveys; Indy and Seattle won one each.

The other division winners are projected as follows: 

AFC West: Denver (5 of 6 chose the Broncos)

 AFC North: Baltimore (4 of 6 chose the Ravens)

NFC East: Dallas (3 out of 6 chose the Cowboys, with one tie)

NFC South: Carolina (3 out of six chose the Panthers, with one tie).

Overall, adding up the general perceptions of these six organizations, we get something like this:

AFC playoff teams                                                     NFC playoff teams

1. Indianapolis (#3 overall)                                          1. Green Bay (#1 overall)

2. New England (#4 overall)                                        2. Seattle (#2 overall)

[So, the consensus is a new match-up in the Super Bowl this year!]

3. Denver (#5 overall)                                                  3. Dallas (#6 overall)

4. Baltimore (#8 overall)                                              4. Carolina (#14 overall)

5. Pittsburgh (#9 overall)                                             5. Philadelphia (#7 overall)

6. Cincinnati (#11 overall)                                            6. Arizona (#10 overall)

[Not many new teams...and close races in the AFC North and NFC East again!...]

Below those teams...

7. Miami (#12 overall)                                                  7. New Orleans (#17 overall)

[AND the NFC South again, though they maybe not so lousy...and Miami missed by ONE vote!]

8. Kansas City (#13 overall)                                         8. Minnesota (#18 overall)

9. Buffalo (#15 overall)                                                9. New Jersey Giants (#19 overall)

10. San Diego (#16 overall)                                         10. Detroit (#21 overall)

11. Houston (#20 overall)                                            11. Atlanta (#22 overall)

12. New Jersey Jets (#25 overall)                                12. St. Louis (#23 overall)

13. Jacksonville (#28 overall)                                      13. San Francisco (#24 overall)

14. Cleveland (#30 overall)                                          14. Chicago (#26 overall)

15. Oakland (#31 overall)                                             15. Washington (#27 overall)

16. Tennessee (#32 overall)                                         16. Tampa Bay (#29 overall)

Our meta-analysis is that these folks aren't taking the last-becomes-first-overnight nature of the NFL into account enough...but then, how do you predict unpredictability, anyway?

As for the NCAA crown, well, there's one definitive front-runner there, too...

Here are the odds from the top tier of one of the major worldwide gambling sites as of this week:

Winner of the 2016 NCAA (Division 1A) FBS Championship Game

Ohio State (5 to 1 odds)

Alabama (8.5 to 1)

TCU (9 to 1)
Auburn, USC (both 15 to 1)
Oregon (17 to 1)
Baylor and Florida St (19 to 1)
LSU and Michigan State (21 to 1)
Clemson and Oklahoma (26 to 1)
Notre Dame (29 to 1)
UCLA, Georgia, and Ole Miss (all 34 to 1)
Mississippi State and Stanford (both 41 to 1)

From there, it descends into about ten teams at each level, as you get into the "just how unrealistic IS this?" game. These numbers seem very typical of the thinking most pundits have at the moment. [My personal thought reading the rest of the list is that if you were going to put a Group of Five team in that CFP this year, it would have to be Boise State, as they're the only one with a track record long enough that an undefeated season might just get them in. It's strange, then, in a season where they're universal favorites to win the Mountain West (only Ohio State is as big a conference fave), they're sitting BEHIND five Group of Five teams, TWO of which are in the Mountain West - the same teams they're predicted to whup this year. Weird. It's not like it's going to ever happen, but it might be worth plunking a fiver down on the Broncos at 251-1 to win the national championship!] 

Ohio State is certainly everyone's favorite at the moment, deservedly so. As mentioned, the Buckeyes and Broncos are the only teams in the realm of get-back-less-than-what-you-bet favorites to win their conferences, both around the "bet three or four to win one" dollar mark. But that's a hard target to wear on your back all season long - you'll have to be able to win when you're not playing well. because everyone will come at you with their best shot this year!