Monday, January 5, 2015

PREDICTION SCOREBOARDS!

We'll keep the running standings here as the bowl season winds through the National Championship game on Jan 12...

Comparing FOLLOWING FOOTBALL to the Vegas casino spreads...
Dec 20) FF was more accurate with four of the five, bombing on picking Colorado St over Utah. Not. Even. Close. Still, Vegas 1, FF 4!
Dec 22) Going to do something strange here...we're going to declare ourselves the LOSER even when the bet would've paid off! We had Memphis by 3 today, more than the 1.5 Vegas gave them, and they won by 7. So, we were closer, right? Wrong. To us at FF, since the game went into overtime, we feel the spread was "zero", so the casinos were closer. Look at it this way: If they'd gone for two and MADE it when they scored their "tying" touchdown in the last minute of regulation, they'd have WON outright...by ONE point, thereby giving Vegas the edge over us. Why should WE be rewarded by a quirk of fate that gave them a chance to overscore by a full TD? Nope! Vegas 2, FF 4!
Dec 23) Everyone got Marshall right - not hard - but only WE got Navy over SDSU! Vegas 3, FF 5.
Dec 24) If we had to lose on the Bahamas Bowl, five straight TDs in the last 12 minutes for the Chippewas was a spectacular way to lose! Vegas 5, FF 5.
Dec 26) Despite our 10-3 record straight up, we fell behind the casinos today with our conservative LT prediction and our (half point) optimistic UCF spread. Vegas 7, FF 6.
Dec 27) We all missed VT, our blog nailed the Head Ball Coach's win, and we lucked out that ASU missed their two-pt conversion, so we won that one as well. In fact, thanks to comebacks by Penn St and Nebraska, we went four for five today! Vegas 8, FF 10.
Dec 29) Had the "over" for Texas A&M (made our pastor happy), and the under on Oklahoma (almost had them losing - not quite, though!), before the Arkansas annihilation of the Texas Lnghrns (no O, get it?). Vegas 9, FF 12.
Dec 30) We all failed to see Notre Dame 's two-QB experiment working, but at least we had LSU winning by less, so we won that point. Stanford and Georgia each won big, which our model doesn't really account for when top teams meet in bowls. We'll work on that for next year... Vegas 11, FF 13.
Dec 31) Here's where the Idahoan in us hopes we're wrong about the Fiesta Bowl! And we were - never been so happy our data was wrong! Vegas 13, FF 14 (thanks to Georgia Tech for letting us keep our lead!)
Jan 1) It's the big day! The three morning bowls were all exciting! Wisconsin surprised us all by managing 34 points against the Auburn defense (thanks to Melvin Gordon's rushing), and the Spartan comeback over Baylor was incredible, but at least Missouri held up against Minnesota's wild attacks, so we all got one of the three opening games! Vegas 16, FF 16!
Jan 2) We got two of the four, simply by being more conservative about Houston and K-State. Still tied, three games to go... Vegas 18, FF 18!
Jan 3) Florida managed to win by eight today - how'd they manage 28 points? - so we bet the wrong side of 7. We'll need to be right twice to win this part of the match, even if we've won the straight-up contest (below) long ago. Vegas 19, FF 18.
Jan 4) Got the right team, but they won bigger, not smaller. Game, set, match. Oh well. Lost money this year. Vegas 20, Following Football 18.  (Wanna go double or nothing on the last game, Vegas?)


Tallying up straight-up predictions for all four of our sources...
                             ESPN                       Sagarin                       Vegas                     Following FB
Dec 20)              2-3                            2-3                               3-2                            3-2
Dec 22)              3-3                            3-3                               4-2                            4-2 (all correct!)
Dec 23)              4-4                            4-4                               5-3                6-2 (Navy over SD by 1!)
Dec 24)              6-4                            6-4.                              7-3                            8-2 (all 2fer2!)
Dec 26)              8-5                            7-6                               8-5                           10-3! 
      (So, Following Football leads by two full games after the first week!)
Dec 27)              11-7                           10-8                             10-8                          13-5
      (Surprisingly, because so many games have the same predictions from all four of us, the Vegas casinos CANNOT catch Following Football this season, down three games at this point! Neither can Sagarin, and ESPN has to be perfect in the games in which we differ to do so. Does that make us "dormie", golf fans?)
Dec 29)            13-8                           12-9                            11-10                          15-6
Dec 30)            14-10                          14-10                         13-11                           17-7
      (And just like that, our lead increases today to THREE games over all opposition!)
Dec 31)            16-11                          15-12                           14-13                          18-9
Jan 1)               18-14                         17-15                           16-16                          20-12
Jan 2)               19-17                         18-18                           17-19                          21-15
      (LOTS of upsets as the new year begins! All four of us went 3-6 on these nine games!)
Jan 3)               20-17                         19-18                          18-19                          22-15
Jan 4)               21-17                          19-19                          19-19                          23-15
      (To reiterate, Following Football posts the best bowl prediction record!)  
Jan 12)             21-18                         19-20                          19-20                         23-16
      (Well, by differing amounts, we all thought Oregon would win, but congratulations to the national champion Ohio State Buckeyes! And congratulations, Following Football ACNC for winning the Bowl Game Prognostication Showdown!)+


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