We've spent the VAST amount of our blogging time here at FF dealing with and laughing at the "DeFlateGate" controversy - and mind you, while it's hardly the reason the Patriots won against the Colts, I have little doubt that they indeed cheated and need some form of punishment for it - and very little talking about the Super Bowl game itself.
Which is a true shame, because it's got the potential to be a FANTASTIC and FASCINATING game! On a large scale, it's amazing to consider that if the Seattle Seahawks win, they're the first repeat champion in ten years, beat (perhaps dominated?) Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive SBs, and lay claim to being one of the great teams and certainly one of the GREAT defenses in NFL history. Conversely, if the New England Patriots win, they've got four titles in the Belechick/Brady era, six appearances in fourteen years, twelve division titles, and lay claim to their Mount Rushmore (or Passmore?) position with Walsh/Montana, Noll/Bradshaw, and Lombardi/Starr.
On a small scale, the game itself could be an amazing chess match between New England's multiple formation offense and Brady's brains and short gain drives against Seattle's fast moving defense that dares you to do exactly what the Patriots want to do...and between New England's consistent defense and the run-option, read-what-they-give-you offense of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch.
I don't see a blowout either way, although if one team gets rolling nothing's impossible. Neither coach is going to let this get out of hand - we're not talking about Mike McCarthy of the Packers here. Belechick and Carroll are both EXTREMELY hands on coaches, both willing to risk whatever needs to be risked if the situation calls for it - if they have 4th and 1 on the goal line, they're going for the throat; that's what I'm saying! Seattle came back on an overly conservative coach; that's NOT going to happen against NE. New England confused a pair of young teams; that's NOT going to happen against SEA.
Our meaningless predictions: Katy Perry's halftime will be fun and upbeat and forgotten by next week. The National Anthem and America The Beautiful (my personal preference for a replacement for the unsingable Star Spangled Banner!) will go off without a hitch and ignored after the fact, I pray. The commercials will be great except for maybe two, and we'll talk about them for a week, and move on. The ball inflation will be checked within an inch (or a PSI) of its life, and be no factor whatsoever (but every time Brady muffs a pass, it'll come up). The nachos will be gone before kickoff. Goodell will listen to his handlers and make as short an appearance at the trophy presentation as appropriate, and the winning owner will declare his team to be one of the greats of all time.
The meaningful predictions: ESPN's many, many football writers provide their opinions here. Bill Simmons makes his (predictable) prediction here after an above-average column, even for him, here. His partner in type, Bill Barnwell, does his usual masterful job dealing with the nitty-gritty in this article. Here's the similar mass prediction article from Sports Illustrated. And you can undoubtedly find more wherever you care to look, including within your own family...
As for Following Football's crack prediction? Our record this year has been stellar, outpacing Vegas and every major venue during college bowl season, and while our record against the NFL spread was barely above guesswork, we did get the correct winners over 75% of the time this season with our tiered rankings, and it was curiously accurate in matching the point spread with a minimal amount of calculating involved.
Our tiers have Seattle above the Patriots to start with, and both computer rankings we follow closest (Elo and Sagarin) also rank Seattle first, New England second. Finally, while we wouldn't normally count controversy against a team in this situation (it's usually negated by the "us against the world" emotional factor), remember that Belechick's game planning really is a major portion of their success - he does an amazing job of taking away what he's most concerned about and focusing your attention on a game plan you weren't prepared to take on. Whatever else this distraction (and others) has done to the Patriots, it's minimized the time the coach could game plan for the multi-faceted Seahawks, and that's to Seattle's advantage:
We're taking Seattle by four.
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