Tuesday, November 10, 2015

College football Prognostications (a day early: THANKS, MAC!)

I guess we HAVE to post our college picks a day early for another week or so, because the MAC has gone to their traditional EVERY DAY IS FOOTBALL schedule (seriously, we're in the midst of a three-week stretch with college or pro football every single day: Monday Night Football, MAC on Tues/Wed, TNF on NFL.com, college on Fri/Sat, and the pros on Sunday!)

So, here are the picks for this week's college games only (we'll give you NFL and CFL tomorrow). Picks highlighted in red are our upset choices; picks in green are our absolute locks, which we have a terrible record with this season! We find we generally go with the favorites, who are not usually set at high enough point spreads (except, apparently, in the Big 12!),  but the picks in blue are where we've chosen the underdog to at least cover.

(Remember, in the FCS, there are no odds makers' lines, so we've set our own ranges: seventeen points, more often than not. If it's going to be close, we've simply picked a winner - those are the games to pay closest attention to!)

Power Five  Week 10
FBS Conferences Nov 12-14 (Th-Sa)      
Atl Coast: ATL OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
Boston College - K-
Clemson @Syracuse -27.5 A/N (-23) SY-
Florida St NC State -9.5 E/G+ (-6) FS+
Louisville Virginia -13.5 H/M (-13) V-
North Carolina St @ Florida St  +9.5 G+/E (+6) FS+
Syracuse Clemson +27.5 N/A (+23) SY-
Wake Forest @Notre Dame +27 N/A (+29) ND+
Atl Coast: CSTL
Duke Pitt -3.5 G-/H (-5) D+
Georgia Tech VA Tech (Th) -3.5 I/G (+1) VT wins
Miami-FL @ North Carolina +12.5 H/E+ (+10) NC+
North Carolina Miami-FL  -12.5 E+/H (-10) NC+
Pitt @Duke +3.5 H/G- (+5) D+
Virginia @Louisville +13.5 M/H (+13) V-
Virginia Tech  @ GA Tech (Th) +3.5 G/I (-1) VT wins
Big Ten: East        
Indiana Michigan +12.5 K/C (+13) UM+
Maryland @Michigan St  +15.5 O+/D+(+25) MSU+
Michigan @Indiana -12.5 C/K (-13) UM+
Michigan St Maryland -15.5 D+/O+(-25) MSU+
Ohio St @ Illinois -16.5 B/K (-15) OSU+
Penn St - I
Rutgers Nebraska +9.5 O/J- (+6) R-
Big Ten: West
Illinois Ohio State +16.5 K/B (+15) OSU+
Iowa  Minnesota -11.5 C/I (-15) IOW+
Minnesota @ Iowa +11.5 I/C (+15) IOW+
Nebraska @Rutgers -9.5 J-/O (-6) R-
Northwestern Purdue -14.5 G/N (-17) NW+
Purdue @Northwestern +14.5 N/G (+17) NW+
Wisconsin - E-
Big Twelve        
Baylor Oklahoma -2.5 B/A (-1) OU-
Iowa St Oklahoma State +14.5 L/B (+17) OSU+
Kansas @TCU +45 U/C (+39) KAN-
Kansas State @ Texas Tech +5.5 I/J (+1) KSU-
Oklahoma @ Baylor +2.5 A/B (+1) OU-
Oklahoma St @Iowa State -14.5 B/L (-17) OSU+
TCU Kansas -45 C/U (-39) KAN-
Texas @ West Virginia +8.5 J/H (+7) TX-
Texas Tech Kansas State -5.5 J/I (-1) KSU-
West Virginia Texas -8.5 H/J (-7) TX-
Power Five  Nov 12-14 (Th-Sa)      
FBS Conferences OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
Independents
Army-West Point Tulane -2.5 U/R (-3) AR+
BYU @Missouri# -5 F/I- (-5) MI-
Notre Dame Wake Forest -27 A/N (+29) ND+
Pac 12: North        
California Oregon State -20 H/P (-19) CA+
Oregon @Stanford +10 G/B (+13) ST+
Oregon St @ California +20 P/H (+19) CA+
Stanford Oregon -10 B/G (-13) ST+
Washington @Arizona St  +3 G/I (-1) UW wins
Washington St @ UCLA +9.5 I/D (+13) UCLA+
Pac12: South
Arizona Utah +6 J/C (+11) UT++
Arizona St Washington -3 I/G (+1) UW wins
Colorado USC (Fr) +16 N/F (+13) USC+
UCLA Washington State -9.5 D/I (-13) UCLA+
USC @Colorado (Fr) -16 F/N (-13) USC+
Utah @Arizona -6 C/J (-11) UT++
SEC: East        
Florida @South Carolina -7.5 C/J (-11) FL++
Georgia @Auburn +1.5 D-/E (+2) GA wins
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt +3.5 J+/I (+4) ?
Missouri BYU# +5 I-/F (+5) MI-
South Carolina Florida +7.5 J/C (+11) FL++
Tennessee North Texas -40.5 G/U (-31) TN+
Vanderbilt Kentucky -3.5 I/J+ (-4) ?
SEC:West
Alabama @Mississippi St  -8 A+/C+ (-1) MSU-
Arkansas @LSU +7.5 G+/B (+12) LSU+
Auburn Georgia -1.5 E/D- (-2) GA wins
LSU Arkansas -7.5 B/G+ (-12) LSU+
Mississippi St Alabama +8 C+/A+ (+1) MSU-
Ole Miss - D-
Texas A&M Western Carolina - E/T (-33) TAM by35
Group of Five Nov 12-14 (Th-Sa)      
FBS Conferences OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
American AC: East
UCF - V
Cincinnati Tulsa -17.5 I/N (-13) TLSA-
East Carolina - L+
USF Temple +3 K-/D- (+11) TEM++
Temple @ USF -3 D-/K- (-11) TEM++
U Conn - L
American AC: West
Houston Memphis -6.5 E/F+ (-4) MEM-
Memphis @ Houston +6.5 F+/E (+4) MEM-
Navy SMU -21.5 E-/Q (-26) NAVY+
SMU @ Navy +21.5 Q/E- (+26) NAVY+
Tulane @ Army-WP +2.5 R/U (-3) AR+
Tulsa @ Cincinnati +17.5 N/I (+13) TLSA-
ConfUSA East:
FAU MTSU +5.5 R/M (+7) MT+
FIU @Marshall +12 Q/L (+13) MAR+
Marshall FIU -12 L/Q (-13) MAR+
Middle Tenn @ FAU -5.5 M/R (-7) MT+
Old Dominion UTEP -4.5 T+/U (-6) ?
UNC-Charlotte UTSA +5.5 V/U- (-2) CH wins
Western Kentucky - G
ConfUSA:West
Louisiana Tech - H
North Texas @ Tennessee +40.5 U/G (+31) TEN+
Rice Southern Miss +7.5 Q/L (+7) RICE-
Southern Miss @ Rice -7.5 L/Q (-7) RICE-
UTEP @ Old Dominion +4.5 U/T+ (+6) ?
UTSA @ UNC-Charlotte -5.5 U-/V (+2) CH wins
Group of Five Nov 10-14 (Tues-Sa)      
FBS Conferences OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
MidAm: East  
Akron @ Miami-OH -7 N/U (-11) AK+
Bowling Green @ W Mich (Wed) -3 G/J (-3) BG+
Buffalo No Illinois (Wed) +6 O/G (+13) NI+
Kent St @ Ohio (Tue) +7 S/O (+11) OH+
Miami-OH Akron +7 U/N (+11) AK+
Ohio Kent State (Tue) -7 O/S (-11) OH+
U Mass Eastern Michigan -7 T+/W+(-9) UM+
MidAm: West
Ball St - R
Central Michigan Toledo (Tue) +4 K/F (+7) TOL+
Eastern Michigan U Mass +7 W+/T+(+9) UM+
Northern Illinois @Buffalo (Wed) -6 G/O (-13) NI+
Toledo @Cent Mich (Tue) -4 F/K (-7) TOL+
Western Michigan Bowling Gr (Wed) +3 J/G (+3) BG+
MtnWst: Mount
Air Force Utah State +1 K/L- (-6) AF wins
Boise St New Mexico -30 G/Q+ (-22) NM-
Colorado St UNLV -7.5 O-/P+(-4) UNLV-
New Mexico @ Boise State +30 Q+/G (+22) NM-
Utah St @ Air Force -1 L-/K (+6) AF wins
Wyoming @ San Diego State +23.5 U/J (+25) SD+
MtnWst: West +4.5
Fresno St @ Hawaii -4.5 T/S-(+5) ?
Hawai'i Fresno State -1 S-/T (-5) ?
Nevada San Jose State -23.5 O/P (-5) NEV+
San Diego St Wyoming +1 J/U (-25) SD+
San Jose St @ Nevada -23.5 P/O (+5) NEV+
UNLV @ Colorado State +7.5 P+/O-(+4) UNLV-
Sun Belt Conf
Appalachian St @ Idaho -17.5 H/S (-19) ApSt +
Arkansas St @UL-Monroe -14.5 K/V- (-20) ArkS +
Georgia Southern @ Troy -6 L/Q+ (-6) GaSo +
Georgia State @ Texas State +3 V/T+ (+8) TxSt +
Idaho Appalachian State  +17.5 S/H (+19) ApSt +
New Mexico St - S-
South Alabama UL Lafayette (Th) -2.5 T/Q (+3) ULL wins
Texas State Georgia State -3 T+/V (-8) TxSt +
Troy Georgia Southern +3 Q+/L (+6) GaSo +
UL-Lafayette @So Alabama (Th) +2.5 Q/T (-3) ULL wins
UL-Monroe Arkansas State +14.5 V-/K (+20) ArkS +
FCS Playoff Nov 12-14 (Th-Sa)      
Nine conferences OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
Missouri Valley
Illinois State @Southern Illinois M/P (-1) ISU wins
Indiana State Western Illinois R+/P (0) WIU win
Missouri State Northern Iowa b+/M-(+25) NI by 21+
North Dakota State @Youngstown St L/N- (-2) NDS by 6+
Northern Iowa @Missouri State M-/b+(-25) NI by 21+
South Dakota South Dakota St Q/N (+3) SDS by 7+
South Dakota State @South Dakota N/Q (-3) SDS by 7+
Southern Illinois Illinois State P/M (+1) ISU wins
Western Illinois @Indiana State P/R+ (0) WIU win
Youngstown State North Dakota St   N-/L (+2) NDS by 6+
Big Sky
Cal Poly SLO @UC Davis R+/a (-16) CP by 14+
Eastern Washington @Montana S+/R- (+4) MT wins
Idaho State Montana State X+/R (+8) MSU 7+
Montana Eastern Washington R-/S+ (-4) MT wins
Montana State @Idaho State R/X+ (-8) MSU 7+
North Dakota Northern Colorado T/W (-9) ND < 17
Northern Arizona Sacramento State Q-/Y (-18) NA 13-29
Northern Colorado @North Dakota W/T (+9) ND < 17
Portland State Southern Utah P/N (+1) SUU wins
Sacramento State @No Arizona Y/Q- (+18) NA 13-29
Southern Utah @Portland State N/P (-1) SUU wins
UC Davis Cal Poly SLO a/R+ (+16) CP by 14+
Weber State -   U  
Colonial AA
Albany New Hampshire X-/S (+8) NH by 7+
Delaware James Madison Y+/O (+16) JM 20+
Elon @ Maine W-/X (+1) ME by 7+
James Madison @Delaware O/Y+ (-16) JM 20+
Maine Elon X/W- (-1) ME by 7+
New Hampshire @ Albany S/X- (-8) NH by 7+
Rhode Island Stony Brook Z-/W (+4) SB <15
Richmond @ Villanova S/T+ (-2) RICH win
Stony Brook @ Rhode Island W/Z- (-4) SB <15
Towson @William&Mary S/O+ (+12) WM 10+
Villanova Richmond T+/S (+2) RICH win
William & Mary Towson O+/S (-12) WM 10+
FCS Playoff Nov 12-14 (Th-Sa)      
Nine conferences OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
Southland
Abilene Christian SE Louisiana Y/V (+3) SEL <20
Central Arkansas @ Nicholls State S/b+ (-16) CA 14+
Houston Baptist @Stephen F Austin f/W (+21) SFA 17+
Incarnate Word Lamar Z/V- (+4) LAM wins
Lamar @Incarnate Word V-/Z (-4) LAM wins
McNeese State - N
Nicholls State Central Arkansas b+/S (+16) CA 14+
Northwestern St @Sam Houston St  W/P (+11) SH 14+
Sam Houston St Northwestern State P/W (-11) SH 14+
SE Louisiana @Abilene Christian V/Y (-3) SEL <20
Stephen F Austin Houston Baptist   W/f (-21) SFA 17+
Big South
Charleston Southern Liberty Q+/T- (-10) CS 10+
Coastal Carolina Kennesaw State N/Y+ (-24) CC 21+
Gardner-Webb East Tennessee State b/f (-11) GW 7+
Kennesaw St @Coastal Carolina Y+/N (+24) CC 21+
Liberty @Charleston Sth T-/Q+(+10) CS 10+
Monmouth Presbyterian X-/b+(-10) MON <11
Presbyterian @Monmouth   b+/X-(+10) MON <11
Southern Conf
Chattanooga Citadel Q/P (-1) CHAT win
East Tennessee St @Gardner-Webb f/b (+11) GW 7+
Furman Mercer U/V (-5) FUR win
Mercer @Furman V/U (+5) FUR win
Samford @Wofford V/W+ (+2) WOF win
The Citadel @Chattanooga P/Q (+1) CHAT win
VMI - a
Western Carolina @Texas A&M  T/E (+33) TAM by 35
Wofford Samford W+/V(-2) WOF win
FCS Playoff Nov 12-14 (Th-Sa)      
Nine conferences OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
Northeast Conf
Bryant Sacred Heart V/a- (-14) BRY 10-27
Central Connecticut @Wagner a/e (-11) CCS 7-24
Duquesne - X+
Robert Morris @ St Francis (PA) e+/Y (+14) SF 10-27
Sacred Heart @ Bryant a-/V (+14) BRY 10-27
St. Francis - PA Robert Morris Y/e+ (-14) SF 10-27
Wagner Central Conn State   e/a (+11) CCS 7-24
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay @Tennessee Tech d/Y (+13) TT 10-27
Eastern Illinois @UT-Martin R+/Q (+4) UTM win
Eastern Kentucky @Murray State R/X+ (-8) EKU 7+
Jacksonville State SE Missouri State K-/T (-20) JSU 17+
Murray State Eastern Kentucky X+/R (+8) EKU 7+
SE Missouri State @Jacksonville State T/K- (+20) JSU 17+
Tennessee State - V-
Tennessee Tech Austin Peay Y/d (-13) TT 10-27
UT-Martin Eastern Illinois   Q/R+ (-4) UTM win
Pioneer FL
Butler Drake b+/Z (0) DR wins
Campbell Jacksonville a/V (+7) Jack 7+
Davidson San Diego g/W (+17) SD 21+
Dayton Marist U/Z (-13) DAY 10-27
Drake @Butler Z/b+ (0) DR wins
Jacksonville @ Campbell V/a (-7) Jack 7+
Marist @ Dayton Z/U (+13) DAY 10-27
Morehead State @ Valparaiso a/f- (-8) MS 7+
San Diego @ Davidson W/g (-17) SD 21+
Stetson Ave Maria f/* STET win
Valparaiso Morehead State f-/a (+8) MS 7+
 "Intermural" Nov 12-14 (Th-Sa)      
 1-AA conferences OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
Ivy League
Brown Dartmouth b/R (+17) D by 13-30
Columbia @ Cornell Y-/c (-4) COL by 6+
Cornell Columbia c/Y- (+4) COL by 6+
Dartmouth @ Brown R/b (-17) D by 13-30
Harvard Penn P+/V (-16) H by 14+
Penn @ Harvard V/P+ (+16) H by 14+
Princeton Yale V/V (-3) PR wins
Yale @ Princeton   V/V (+3) PR wins
Patriot League
Bucknell Holy Cross Y+/X- (-2) HC wins
Colgate Lehigh W/X+ (-4) COL < 10
Fordham @ Georgetown S-/Z (-10) FOR 7-24
Georgetown Fordham Z/S- (+10) FOR 7-24
Holy Cross @ Bucknell X-/Y+ (+2) HC wins
Lafayette @ Incarnate Word d
Lehigh @ Colgate X+/Y- (+2) COL < 10
1-AA HBC Nov 12-14 (Th-Sa)      
 conferences OPPONENT Vegas Line FF Ratings My Pick
MEAC
Bethune-Cookman - S-
Delaware State @ NC A&T  e/S (+27) NCAT 24+
Florida A&M @ Morgan St  d-/Y-(+13) MS 12-29
Hampton @ Savannah St  W+/e(-14) HAM 10-27
Howard NC Central b/X (+5) NCC < 17
Morgan State Florida A&M  Y-/d- (-13) MS 12-29
NC A&T Delaware St  S/e (-27) NCAT 24+
NC Central @ Howard  X/b (-5) NCC < 17
Norfolk State SC State  Z/T (+9) SCS 7+
Savannah State Hampton e/W+ (+14) HAM 10-27
SC State @ Norfolk St    T/Z (-9) SCS 7+
SWAC East
Alabama A&M @ Southern  b/W (+13) SOU 10-27
Alabama State Prairie View Z+/V (+4) PV wins
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern V/b (-9) ALC 14+
Jackson State - b+
Miss Valley St - d
SWAC West
Ark-Pine Bluff Grambling St  f/U (+19) GR 17+
Grambling St @ Ark-Pine Bluff U/f (-19) GR 17+
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama St  V/Z+ (-4) PV wins
Southern Alabama A&M  W/b (-13) SOU 10-27
Texas Southern Alcorn St    b/V (+9) ALC 14+

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