Sunday, July 5, 2015

AFL Round 14 in review

The biggest rout of the year took place on Sunday afternoon (which was Saturday night here in the US), when St Kilda upset free-falling Essendon by the astronomical score of 162-52, a 110-point victory!

Throughout the game, the Saints played against a defense that resembled cones in a practice drill (or "witches' hats", if you prefer the down under term). To score 25 goals in a game is hard to do in a game of footy, but the lack of energy in the Bomber personnel was, to be kind, disheartening.

The commemoration of murdered Adelaide head coach Phil Walsh, begun Friday night at the Collingwood/Hawthorn game, continued at every game throughout the weekend - a stirring tribute to a fellow "lifer" from the footy community. The idea that teams can go tooth-and-nail for two hours and then come together and live out the Adelaide 2015 campaign motto, #weflyasone, was superb. We posted Rohan Connelly's plea to continue the camaraderie beyond this weekend, and we join him in those pleas.

As for the actual games that were played this weekend... 

Sydney over Port Adelaide by 10; Hawthorn by 10 over Collingwood; Richmond struggled past a toughened GWS with a nine-point win, and Western had the same difficulty with Carlton before they managed an eleven-point victory. Gold Coast welcomed both David Swallow and dual-Brownlow winner Gary Ablett Jr. back Saturday, and apparently that was all they needed, as they annihilated the North Melbourne Kangaroos 125-70 (and it wasn't that close). We talked about St Kilda's 110-point whipping of Essendon, but the West Coast Eagles beat up on Melbourne as well, winning 114-60. Brisbane held up against league-leader Fremantle for three quarters, tied throughout in wet, messy conditions that made it a tackler's paradise (more tackles were made in this game than every game ever except one (a game (there was a Richmond/Port game in 2010 with an unimaginable 258 tackles, or one every 25 seconds or so. Ridiculous.) Unfortunately, there are four quarters, and Freo scored seven goals to one in the last to win, 84-48.  

The Adelaide / Geelong game was cancelled, but the stadium was opened for fans to come onto the field and pay their respects, kick the football around parts of the field, and share their grief with other mourners. Adelaide is presumed to be back to work next week, with a game at West Coast on Saturday evening.

WHAT COLLEGE OR NFL TEAMS DO OUR READERS ROOT FOR?

As we approach the American football season, with training camps right around the corner, we at Following Football want to focus on those teams that our readers want most to know about! (After all, there are 287 NFL and NCAA Division 1 teams out there - we can't "focus" on all of them!)

So, let Following Football know - what's your favorite football team? We'll make sure to cover them with some extra emphasis this season!

[And in the meantime, come check out our coverage of the Aussie Rules footy season, now halfway through the home-and-away schedule with the Grand Final at the beginning of October, and the Canadian Football League, which is just finishing round two in pursuit of the Grey Cup at the end of November.]

Sometimes a pivotal moment in time is clear enough to allow us a choice of paths

Rohan Connelly of The Age has a remarkable point in the wake of the death of and mourning for Adelaide coach Phil Walsh Friday and this weekend. 

Can we change our day-to-day culture in this moment in time?

Can we stop thinking that sport is more important than life? (And this means not just footy but American football, soccer, whichever sport dominates your thinking.) 

Can we allow our players to smile occasionally after a loss? Can we allow them to skip the angst we've always demanded from our defeated players?

Can we remember that not only are our players not superhuman, not personal role models?
Can we remember instead that they are young men (and women!), some barely out of their teens (and the college kids may not even be that old), and don't have the life experience yet to have the same well-thought out positions on the major social issues of the day - especially when a reporter stabs them with a surprise question and the answer will run on a loop on ESPN SportsCenter?

Can we all just relax and enjoy the game for what it is: a game?!  

Saturday, July 4, 2015

New post on the NCAA page!

We'll post a quick note whenever we add to our side pages - in this case, it's a summary of our top/bottom predictions for the NCAA division 1 conferences in 2015.

And - what about the four "Football Championship" schools who don't DO championships?

Regardless of the name, four of the twelve "FCS" schools do NOT participate in the championship playoffs - the Ivy League and Patriot League (both filled with top academic schools with - ahem - better things to do), and the MEAC and SWAC, the two "historically black colleges", or HBCs, which this season have decided to hold their own private championship, the "Celebration Bowl", which will (we suppose) unofficially crown the top HBC of the season.

So, let's look a little closer!

The Ivy League:
Of course, Harvard is the traditional power in the Ivy League, and comes into 2015 as the favorite again, with Yale and Dartmouth the only two teams with realistic aspirations to dethrone the two-time titlists. Brown, Princeton, and Penn will fill the center slots, while the Columbia/Cornell matchup (hysterical last year) once again will decide which team goes 1-9 and which goes 0-10. (We'll take Columbia to lose again.) 

The Patriot League:
Fordham has the same kind of stranglehold on the Patriot that Harvard does in the Ivy; their chasers include Bucknell and Lafayette, with Holy Cross and Colgate right behind, and Lehigh hanging on to their tails. Georgetown is the bottom of the ladder, but not as poor as Columbia or Cornell. 

So, our top four in the "Football Intramural Subdivision" will be Harvard, Fordham, Dartmouth and Yale for starters; and our "Bottom Three" would be Columbia, Cornell, and Georgetown. For what it's worth.

Meanwhile, in the Historically Black College conferences,

The MEAC:
...is a three-way fight between defending champ North Carolina A&T, South Carolina St, and Bethune-Cookman, and a one-loss, three-way tie is almost expected. Right behind them are North Carolina Central and Morgan St, vying for 4th and 5th. Then there's a gap to Hampton, Norfolk St, Howard, and Florida A&M, four schools with famous bands that almost make up for their teams! Pulling up the rear will be Delaware St and legendary Savannah St, seen most recently playing a running-clock game at Florida St because the rout was THAT BAD.

The SWAC:
In two divisions, there's a separation between the best team (Alcorn St) in the East, and the two most famous teams (Southern and Grambling St) in the West. Alcorn is only threatened by Alabama St, with three others trailing far behind: Alabama A&T, Jackson St, and Mississippi Valley St. In the West, Southern and Grambling are closely followed by Prairie View A&M, with a gap back to Texas-Southern and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

So, our top four in the "HBC Subdivision" will be Alcorn St, North Carolina A&T, South Carolina St, and Bethune-Cookman to start the season; while our "Bottom Three" start as Savannah St, Delaware St, and Mississippi Valley St. 

To finish our FCS conversation from yesterday...

Yesterday, we laid out the 24 teams we believe most likely to make the FCS playoffs - North Dakota St, Illinois St, Youngstown St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa and Indiana St from the MVC; Eastern Washington, Montana, Idaho St, and Montana St from the Big Sky; New Hampshire, Villanova, James Madison and Richmond from the Colonial; Sam Houston St, SE Louisiana, and Stephen F Austin from the Southland Conference;  Jacksonville St, Eastern Illinois, and Eastern Kentucky from the Ohio Valley Conference; Coastal Carolina and Liberty from the Big South; St. Francis (PA) OR Bryant from the Northeast Conference; and Jacksonville from the Pioneer League.

Ah, the Pioneer League! Our FCS island of castaways. Sun Belt Light. When the two teams who've won titles in your league are as distant from each other as Jacksonville (FL) and San Diego (CA), there's something not-so-natural about your league. Its denizens come from across the country, teams that couldn't latch on to the stronger leagues in their own necks of the woods. 

Using the Sagarin Rating system to conceptualize the relative strengths of the teams, let's give you a sense of the realities of the Pioneer League:
Median Sagarin Rating for each FCS conference:
Missouri Valley: 63 (meaning the middle team in the conference is at 63)
Big Sky: 46
Colonial: 50
Ohio Valley: 49
Southland: 52
Big South: 52
Northeast: 49

By comparison, Jacksonville is at 43, and leads the Pioneer by ten points. 
Here are the current Sagarin ratings for the other teams in the Pioneer - notice the range of locations as well... 
*Drake (IL), San Diego (CA), and Dayton (OH) - 33
*Marist (NY) - 25
*Campbell (NC) - 22
*Butler (IN) - 19
*Valparisio (IN) and Morehead St (KY) - 18
*Stetson (FL) - 17
*Davidson (NC) - 6.

The only schools whose teams are anywhere near these ratings in the FCS are legends to Bottom Eight readers of Following Football: Nicholls St (17), Houston Baptist (13), Robert Morris (19), Delaware St (19), and good ol' Savannah St (12), who plays two or three big time FBS schools like Florida St and Oklahoma, usually losing by 70-80 points.

Here at Following Football, we are just as interested with the bottom of the list as the top. As we are handicapped by not getting TV coverage of these fine schools' teams, we will start the season's FCS Bottom Five from these Sagarin ratings from the end of 2014:

 Davidson, Robert Morris, Houston Baptist, Stetson, and Nicholls St.

However, we'll keep track of all of these schools, and keep you informed on both ends of the spectrum in 2015!   

Bo knows soccer...which is why he never played it...

Tried to watch the Germany/England third place game in the Women's World Cup. Gave up and switched over to the ESPN 30-for-30 on the legendary Bo Jackson, the greatest athlete of the last hundred years. (We can discuss Jim Thorpe another day.) The Wikipedia article hits most of the high points of the ESPN piece by Michael Bonaglio, which reminds us how incredible Bo was.

Jeremy Schaap of ESPN says something in the piece which is both revealing and sad:
 "Bo came along at exactly the right time...(besides the birth of cable sports, which let us see his highlights every night,) If someone with his size, speed, and strength came along today, we'd always suspect he was on steroids or growth hormones or something. Not with Bo, not then."


Will we ever have that sheer wonder over an athlete again? Or will we simply wonder what drugs he's on? (Is that why we can be thrilled with American Pharoah? We know the horse isn't on drugs?) That's tragic.

Oh. I did eventually go back for the end of the futbol game. An hour later, it was still 0-0. (Excuse me: "nil-nil".) Then England got a penalty shot, which in the women's game is virtually unstoppable, which makes perfect sense in a game where there's virtually never any other score. So, England won, 1-0, on a single penalty shot, negating the rest of the match. Remind me again why I should watch soccer?

Friday, July 3, 2015

Some FCS predictions to stir the pot...

Yesterday, we posted our predictions for the FBS conferences, and today it's time for the FCS conferences - the "Football Championship Series", which means that they have a playoff system to select their champion, unlike the FBS, who...um, now has a playoff to select their champion.

Well, at least it's still true that the FBS teams have bowl games to look forward to, unlike the FCS teams, who...well, actually, the MEAC and the SWAC have pulled out of the playoff system to have their champions meet in the, uh, Celebration Bowl. Hmmmm.

So much for differences. So, from now on, we really need to stop calling them "FBS" and "FCS", and call them what they used to be: 1-A and 1-AA. Here we go! 

Missouri Valley Conference:
The strongest conference in the FCS, unquestioned. Both finalists came from the MVC last year, with North Dakota St beating Illinois St in a thrilling final. This year, expect those teams 1-2 in the conference again, with followers Northern Iowa, South Dakota St, Youngstown St, and Indiana St all making plans for the playoffs as well. Below them, only South Dakota is sure not to make the playoffs, with slots 7-8-9 filled by Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Missouri St. 

Big Sky Conference:
The top four teams this year will probably match last year's, including repeating champion Eastern Washington on their fire-red field (so hard to look at!), with fellow playoff teams Montana, Montana St, and newcomer Idaho St. After them, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona will be fighting it out for 5th; Sacramento St should land around 7th; Weber St and Southern Utah should be able to win enough to move up towards 8th; and the bottom four teams should be Portland St, North Dakota, UC Davis, and Northern Colorado.


Southland Conference:
Third in strength, the Southland houses the biggest threat to North Dakota St's possible five-peat (you read that right: five), Sam Houston St. Behind them, Stephen F Austin University and Southeast Louisiana are the only real threats to their title aspirations in the conference, and should both make the playoffs as well. Central Arkansas should be a solid 4th, unable to defeat the three teams above them but better than the other seven. The middle of the pack will be McNeese St, Northwestern St, Abilene Christian, and Lamar; while the three bottom of the pack teams continue to be Incarnate Word, Nicholls St, and Houston Baptist.  

Colonial Athletic Association:
New Hampshire and Villanova should be fighting it out for the conference title, but are probably not a threat to steal the national title from NDSU. James Madison and then Richmond will probably each put together seasons worthy of playoff selection, but fall behind UNH and the Wildcats. William and Mary is the class of the rest, followed closely by a large pack including Albany, Stony Brook, Maine, Delaware, and Towson. Elon and Rhode Island will bring up the rear. 

Seventeen of the twenty-four playoff spots should go to those four conferences, still the powers of the FCS. Below them, four other conferences will look to scrape up the scraps:

Big South Conference:
As opposed to the Southland, the Big South was ruled by Coastal Carolina until they were upended by Liberty at the end of the season; this year, Coastal should return the favor and finish their undefeated league season, with Liberty's one loss to them and both heading into the post-season. They'll be followed in order by Charleston Southern, Presbyterian, Monmouth, Gardner-Webb, and first-year football team Kennesaw State! 

The Southern Conference:
As opposed to the Southland OR the Big South, the Southern will be dominated by Chattanooga this year, with Samford and Wofford their sidekicks, waiting outside when the playoffs start and only their champion is invited. Behind them will be the trio of Western Carolina, The Citadel and Furman; Mercer in 7th, VMI in 8th, and first-year football team East Tennessee State in 9th! (And yes, the first game for each first year team is against each other! How perfect is that?) 

Ohio Valley Conference:
Three teams should make the playoffs here, if the breaks go their direction: champion Jacksonville St, a possible top ten team, and hopefully both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky have the strength to beat everyone except J-State and possibly each other on their schedule and make the playoffs as wild cards. 

Pioneer Football League:
What the Sun Belt is to FBS football, the Pioneer League is to the FCS. We guarantee that someone will win. Officially. However, the highest rated teams in the Pioneer would be the lowest rated in any of those top four conferences, and the only thing from Following Football simply renaming PFL as "the Bottom Eight" or however many we're keeping track of this year would be Savannah St, Houston Baptist, Davidson... actually, even the two new schools might be better. In the "add insult to irony" category, the league champs the first two years (San Diego in '13; Jacksonville in '14) were each ineligible to attend the playoffs last year due to indiscrepancies in financing (it's expensive to be not quite as bad as the other teams!). This year, we're hoping to see the winner (probably Jacksonville) actually get the chance to attend the FCS playoffs and get their whuppin' fair and square. 

Tomorrow, we'll take a closer look at the bottom of the Pioneer as well as the other bottom feeder teams; we'll also examine the four leagues which don't take part in the Football Championship Subdivision Championships because...er...ah...well. We'll take a look anyway. (And we'll recap the 24 teams we expect to see in the December playoffs competing for the DIVISION 1-AA TITLE!...which the NCAA will insist on calling the FCS championship. Because - hypocrisy. But then, it IS the NCAA!)

The stabbing death of Coach Phil Walsh

At 2 a.m. Friday, Adelaide Crows coach Phil Walsh, 55, was stabbed to death by his 26-year old son, Cy Jacob Walsh, in a domestic dispute that also injured Mrs. Walsh with non-threatening injuries.

The entire footy world has united in grief over the loss of AFL lifer Walsh, who also spent time coaching in Port Adelaide and West Coast, as well as playing in Brisbane, Collingwood, and Richmond.

His Crows team were scheduled to play Geelong this weekend at home in the Adelaide Oval; the game was cancelled but the remainder of the weekend's slate of games will go on as scheduled. Friday night, in a classic matchup between heavyweights Hawthorn and Collingwood (which the premiers won 101-91 in a tight competitive game), the two teams came together after the game in an unscheduled moment of prayer which saw the two teams interspersed between each other - Hawthorn, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Collingwood,... - in a beautiful moment of salute.

Of course, tributes from players and the entire AFL community have poured out on Twitter and Instagram, but the best words came from detective commissioner Des Bray, investigating the murder: 

"For any family, regardless of who it is, is one of the worst things that you could imagine that could happen to you," he said.
"The only thing that is different with this is that he has a high profile. The pain and suffering of the family is no different."

Thursday, July 2, 2015

It's the US and Japan again for the Women's World Cup title

Just repeating the news, as I can't say I follow futbol like I follow football...

The United States defeated Germany 2-0 on Tuesday, and last night the Japanese were able to get past England thanks to an English player kicking the ball into her own goal (accidentally, of course) just before the end of regulation time.

How heartbreaking must THAT be? In most sports, you can't even SCORE for the other team. Baseball, cricket, golf, and so forth - it's impossible. In American, Canadian, and Australian football (the sports of choice 'round these here parts), it's possible to score one or two point scores for the other team, and most of the time it's done intentionally, as a strategy to either get the ball back or prevent a larger score by the opponent. In basketball, it's entirely a bad thing, but it's one basket out of 40 or 50, and very rarely has any part in deciding the game.

But in soccer, where only a couple of goals are scored in the entire match in most cases, an own-goal can and usually does decide the entire game when it occurs. It seems unnecessarily cruel, but then much of soccer is cruelty - the tension that builds in a scoreless game, the thought that a World Cup championship can and often does come down to penalty kicks, and the outside pressure that major club and national teams feel from their fans, who often place an inappropriate amount of importance on the outcome of a fickle game. 

Every time something like this happens, I think back to the 1994 Men's World Cup, when a player from Colombia cost his team the chance to advance with an own goal and found himself dead within a month or two of returning home  We'd all like to think England's more civilized than that - because as Americans we come from that stock originally - but I sure don't want to see their tabloid sports sections today...