Update: South of the Equator

It's five rounds into the home-and-away season for the AFL, and the North Melbourne Kangaroos are the sole remaining undefeated team on the ladder. Friday night (4 am Friday morning, Idaho time), they have to face the second place Western Bulldogs, on their mutual home grounds at Etihad Stadium (the only covered, artificial turf stadium in the league), where the Doggies can run like mad and usually race past their opponents (my wager is that there's going to be zero loss-less teams in three days). Should be as great a game as last Friday night's classic, where Hawthorn won their third straight three-point victory, 112-109 over the Adelaide Crows in a thriller.

Right now, it looks like there are seven teams who are (barring disaster) going to be the definitive favorites to make the eight-team finals: the four named above, plus the Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles, and the Geelong Cats. The eighth spot, were I a betting man, will come down to a race between the two newest clubs, the Gold Coast Suns and the Greater Western Sydney (GWS) Giants, neither of whom have ever made finals. (And GWS looks much more likely, with the injuries Gold Coast is piling up again after last year's injury debacle!) That would be an AMAZING finals month of September! The tenth possibility, surprisingly, is Melbourne's Demons, who haven't sniffed playoffs in a decade, but are 3-2 and looking strong - not as strong as the above teams, but...you know, it's possible. Their rating gain of 12.6 ELO points is second in the competition, behind only GWS's ridiculous 23.4.

On the other end of the scale, in a phenomenal turn, the only winless team in the AFL is last year's top seeded team, the Fremantle Dockers, with essentially the same personnel. Now, they're starting to rack up some ailing players as well, but that's not the excuse for losing five straight, including a four point loss Sunday to the other (previously) winless team, the Carlton Blues, who were expected to be poor this year in a rebuilding effort. The five teams who have fallen on hard times this season are Fremantle (0-5), Essendon (1-4 - expected, having lost 12 top players in the WADA drug ruling), Collingwood (2-3, with wins over Essendon this weekend and a lucky win by 2 over a weak team), Richmond (1-4) and Port Adelaide (2-3), two teams expected to play finals but who play each other this weekend to see which one's falling faster...

Why?

If you're Johnny Manziel, and you're trying to get a job in the NFL, and the word on the street is you can't get your head out of your tail long enough to actually work at your job, why are you hanging out with someone like Josh Gordon, who just got picked up AGAIN for drugs and cannot ever APPEAL for reinstatement into the league for the rest of the year?

And why, if you're Von Miller, do you even consider letting Manziel room with you at this point?

And why do I care at this point? Is it the car crash theory - like Lindsay Lohan or Kim Kardashian or Mike Tyson, you just can't look away at some point of ludicrosity (a word I just made up)? When he gets a JOB, then I can justify it...

Aussie Rules update

Hello from down under! As we get ready to tip Week 4 of the AFL footy season, here's where the teams stand after three games:

3 and 0) Scoreboard!... Gold Coast Suns (the big surprise, but then they've had an easy schedule so far), Sydney Swans (looked strong three weeks in a row - Luke Parker leads our Player of the Year voting, and Buddy Franklin is scoring like Steph Curry again!), and North Melbourne Kangaroos (first time they won game ONE, let alone the first three, in ten years! But they're strong enough to have earned those wins).

2 and 1) A series of teams who are either imperfect or ran into a bad week or a better team or... Hawthorn Hawks (no surprise - tough wins against West Coast and the Bulldogs earn them their cred back), West Coast Eagles and Western Bulldogs (been great and each lost a tough game to the Hawks), Geelong Cats (looked great all season; GWS bullied them in a bad week), Adelaide and Port Adelaide (the Cats are the better of the two, but Port's had two easy games besides getting whooped by their cross-town rivals).

1 and 2) Teams which have their teeth clenched right now... GWS Giants (an up and down team), Melbourne Demons (ditto - no bad losses), Collingwood Magpies and Richmond Tigers (weaker than expected), Essendon Bombers (upset the Dees somehow in week 2), and St. Kilda Saints (upended the Pies in Nick Riewoldt's 300th game!).

0 and 3) Exactly where they deserve to be, although all show signs of a pulse, at least...Brisbane Lions (don't expect more than a few wins), Carlton Blues (but number one draft pick Jacob Weitering is the real deal), and last year's minor premiers, the Fremantle Dockers (who don't seem to understand that you have to score more than five goals a game to win in this league. The walls may be caving in if they can't scare up a win soon...)

So, this week, some easy calls: West Coast over Richmond Friday; Geelong over Essendon, Hawthorn over St. Kilda, Gold Coast over Brisbane (but in a rivalry? Never know...), Western over Carlton, and on Sunday expect North Melbourne to add to Fremantle's misery. As for the question mark games, I'm thinking GWS gets over the line against Port Adelaide, I'll take the Adelaide Crows to upset Sydney, and by flipping a coin I've got Melbourne nipping Collingwood (they show more positive signs).

Right now, my record is 20-7; I'm sitting in the top 10% of tipsters in the AFL competition, and there's a long way to go...

Aussie Footy update

The first weekend went down with every home team winning, even the three games that many tipped the other way. The BIG winners were the Sydney Swans (annihilated a listless Collingwood team that had looked good in pre-season), Western Bulldogs, who somehow made the reigning minor premier Fremantle club look like beginners, shutting them out entirely until halfway through the second quarter; and Geelong, who defeated the three-time defenders Hawthorn with room to spare. The West Coast Eagles looked good, scoring 160+ against Brisbane (who hit 100 themselves), Gold Coast against Essendon (but everyone will look good against the Dons this year), and the other winners and frankly some of the losers: Richmond, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne all won; but Carlton and St. Kilda both looked better than expected in their losses, and GWS and Adelaide came close to winning their matches.

The top players of the first week, according to our combination of all sorts of different rating and voting systems in Aussie land, were these six men:
1. Robbie Grey (Port Adelaide) - 35 pts
1. Josh Kennedy (West Coast) - 35 pts
1. Nic Naitanui (West Coast) - 35 pts
1. Luke Parker (Sydney) - 35 pts
5. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) - 34 pts
6. Jake Stringer (Western) - 30 pts

In the coming week, every road team last week is a home team this week, so we've got nine 1-0 teams travelling to nine 0-1 teams (understanding some of them share the MCG or some other stadium, so "travel" is sometimes figurative):

Richmond @ Collingwood (take Richmond +7.5)
Port Adelaide @ Adelaide (they share a stadium, and they're about equally good)
Melbourne @ Essendon (bet against Essendon every game this year until they become respectable.)
North Melbourne @ Brisbane (Kangaroos should win)
Western Bulldogs @ St. Kilda (in Jack Riewoldt's 300th game with the Saints)
Gold Coast @ Fremantle (hard to believe that Freo won't come back and win)
Geelong @ GWS (Geelong should win, but GWS needs to make a good showing)
West Coast @ Hawthorn (rematch of the Grand Final; most think WC will get a measure of revenge)
Sydney @ Carlton (again, hard to see even an improved Carlton making a game of this).

Australian Footy starts this Thursday!

Richmond and Carlton start the season off with their traditional opening night game on Thursday night (4 am MDT here in the States, 6 am on the east coast, 3 on the west).

Here's a great article that simply lists the likely opening day rosters and general trends for each of the eighteen teams in the Australian Football League for 2016 (with the exception of two expansion teams - Gold Coast in 2010 and GWS in 2011 - the same teams for twenty consecutive seasons!)

NFL Free Agency update

I actually posted this on our Facebook page quite a few days ago, and never brought it back to the house, so to speak... Here's a great piece on the current state of the NFL free agency madness, with some definitive winners (like the Raiders and Buccaneers) and losers (look'n at you, SF and Cleveland...). Denver's still up in the air - if they still have the time to get a qualified quarterback, they'll be fine. If...

What would YOU have done?

Here's the story from AFL.com.au about the pre-season closer last week where Richmond chose to play 15 (rather than 18) players during the fourth quarter of an exhibition game after a slough of injuries had decimated his team and he had no bench to work with for the last quarter and a half or so:

RICHMOND has escaped sanction for fielding just 15 players in the final quarter of its NAB Challenge hit-out against Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium last Thursday night.

Tigers coach Damien Hardwick asked the League during the game whether the match could be called off early as the club's injury toll mounted.

AFL football operations manager Mark Evans met with Tigers football boss Dan Richardson on Tuesday to discuss the situation and the club's obligation to fans and the broadcaster.

"I'm happy to leave it at that," Evans told RSN927 on Wednesday morning.

"In fact, I think the internal discussions have been very good and very well considered.

"We've all agreed the time-honoured way of parking a player in the goal square, if you wanted to, is a better outcome."

Evans said he understood why the Tigers made the inquiry to the League with round one fast approaching.

"I think there was a split decision to start removing players from the field. It was then pointed out that that's not we were looking for," Evans said.

"Dan Richardson and I had a discussion about this yesterday and he provided all the implications as to what they were dealing with at the time.

"I accept that was difficult for them, but equally they've accepted there were other ways of doing things."

The Tigers players dropped like nine-pins through the game with injuries to Shane Edwards (collarbone), Shaun Grigg (thumb), Reece Conca (hamstring) and Jacob Townsend (concussion) amplifying Hardwick's frustration.

Hardwick revealed post-match he had asked for the game to be cut short in the last 10 minutes.

That request was denied by the AFL, which then asked the Tigers to field a full team for the remainder of the game.

What would you have done? Let us know in the comments!

Some NFL thoughts since last we met...

...Congratulations to the Denver Broncos, who won Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara with a dominant defensive performance against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.
...The Peyton Manning saga couldn't have gotten any heavier in drama, could it? Put the Sheriff in during the second half of the last game of the season to save the top seed, leave him in for the playoffs, where he does just enough to get the Broncos past the Steelers and his old nemesis the Patriots, and then rides on the back of his legendary defense to a second title and the perfect way to go out a winner.
...Speaking of retirements, why are the Detroit Lions so poisonous that the great players retire? First Barry Sanders, and now Calvin Johnson? Megatron, like the great Barry, is a quiet man who didn't need the money or the accolades; when he was ready to stop, he simply stopped. But I just can't help but think that if he'd been with a team that had, say, hope, he'd stay another year or two.
...Free agency? Kind of strange, as always. At Following Football, we don't really care much about things like free agency, the draft, or fantasy football - basically anything that glorifies the individual over the team. But there were some interesting moves over the last several weeks since SB50: the Giants' work in signing most of a new defense; positive movement for teams like Tampa, Oakland, Houston, and maybe Chicago. Bad news for Denver and Cleveland, although getting rid of Johnny Manziel is going to be a huge plus.
...Martavis Bryant and Joseph Randle proved they're both idiots and addicts. Never mind the suspensions - in order to reach that level of suspension, this was the sixth failed drug test for Bryant in four years, and the fourth in barely over a year for Randle. And they KNEW they were going to be tested!! Hope those drugs were worth flushing your career down the toilet, careers that will pay you far more than anything else you're qualified to do in your life.
...Quarterback shuffles: Brock Osweiler to Houston, which means Denver's desperate for a quarterback. San Francisco wants to deal Colin Kaepernick, but that will leave them without a quarterback on the roster worth their salt. The Jets are similarly desperate to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick, because if they don't, they're also screwed. In the NFL, you have to have a great QB, or at least a solid one. Even with a defense like Denver won with this year, they still had the Brain of Manning, and a good semi-rookie in Osweiler going 5-2 in between. (Manning went 10-2, by the way, even counting when he was injured.) You're not going to win with Tyrod Taylor. Sorry, but you're just NOT. There are probably eight WINNING quarterbacks in the NFL - Rodgers, Brady, etc. - and another 8-12 who you can WIN WITH - Flacco, Luck, Ryan, Manning this year - if the other pieces are exemplary. The rest CANNOT win. Period.

Get that quarterback. If Carson Wentz or Jarrod Goff are that good, sell the farm to get them.

2016 Australian Footy League predictions (guaranteed wrong or your money back!)

After laying out the strengths and weaknesses, tendencies and trends of each team, I ran a simulated season using the 2016 fixture, and here’s what I’m predicting for the 2016 season:

        1. Hawthorn Hawks (2^nd on the ladder at 17-5, win Grand Final). The Hawks are here at the top until someone proves they can knock them off. And there’s nothing in their form or roster that gives a reason to doubt that four straight is possible, even likely. [Last year: 16-6, 158%, 3^rd on ladder, GF champion. Current rating: 84.9]

      2. Fremantle Dockers (1^st on the ladder at 18-4, lose Grand Final) With Nat Fyfe at the top of his game, if Harley Bennell is the key addition they think he is – prove it, Harley! – they’ll run through the regular home-and-away again, but they still can’t beat the Hawks in October at the MCG. [Last year: 17-5, 119%, 1^st on the ladder, prelim finalists. Current rating: 57.6] 

       3. Geelong Cats (3^rd on the ladder at 15-7, prelim finalists) Paddy Dangerfield and the speed of the new wave of young Cats will pull them through games they wore out in last year. [Last year: 11-9-2, 101%, 10^th place. Current rating: 52.4] 

       4. West Coast Eagles (5^th on the ladder at 14-8, prelim finalists) No reason to think they can’t beat any team below them in a finals situation with their talent and experience, but not Freo or Hawthorn this year. [Last year: 16-5-1, 148%, lost in GF. Current rating 75.5]

      5.  Greater Western Sydney Giants (4^th on the ladder at 15-7; semi-finalists) This is the year that they come through big time. Only a lack of playoff experience will keep them from advancing farther than two losses and out after the double chance. On paper, this team has very few weaknesses. [Last year: 11-11, 99%, 11^th place. Current rating: 40.5]

      6.  Richmond Tigers (7^th on the ladder at 14-8; semi-finalists) Progress – the Tigers win their first game at North Melbourne in finals this year, but Geelong at home proves too much. Still, another solid season, their first finals win: things continue to look good for Tiger Nation. [Last year: 15-7, 123%, elimination finalists. Current rating: 65.0]

    7.   North Melbourne Kangaroos (6^th on the ladder at 14-8, qualifying finalists) Another solid season for the Kangas, but age will catch up with them late in the season. Except for Brent Harvey, who will pass game 418 and then reveal he’s actually an android sent from the future. [Last year: 13-9, 107%, prelim finalists. Current rating: 64.5]

     8.  Western Bulldogs (8^th on the ladder at 13-9 plus percentage; qualifying finalists) Couldn’t understand why everyone thought this budding young team could possibly fall back, until I ran the simulation and realized what a difficult schedule they have. They’ll have to rely on Freo relaxing in round 23 to secure this last spot. [Last year: 14-8, 115%, elimination finalists. Current rating: 58.9]

    9.  Sydney Swans (9^th place, 13-9 with lower percentage than WB) No Goodes, no Jetta, Buddy could very well be on the downside, and Isaac Heeney can’t be the only young talent on the team. Too slow to catch teams like Western. [Last year: 16-6, 127%, semi-finalists. Current rating: 65.6]

   10.  Adelaide Crows (10^th place, 11-11 plus percentage) The loss of Dangerfield will hurt more than the Crows want to admit. All the trauma from Phil Walsh’s death last year will catch up with them this year, just as Essendon found out two years ago. [Last year: 13-8-1, 116%, semi-finalists. Current rating: 61.2] 

    11.  Melbourne Demons (11^th place, 11-11) This may have been the biggest surprise in the simulation. Melbourne many not make finals this year, but after a five-game win streak in this run-thru, they were 6-4 and sitting pretty. Three losses in a row on the road in July may doom those chances, but Demons supporters will take .500 this year! [Last year: 7-15, 77%, 13^th place. Current rating: 30.8]

   12.  Port Adelaide Power (12^th place, 8-14 plus percentage) The Power are much more likely to look like they did the last half of ’15 than the first half of ’14. The speed and cohesiveness are just gone. [Last year: 12-10, 107%, 9^th place. Current rating: 59.6]

   13.  Gold Coast Suns (13^th place, 8-14) Man-o-man, wouldn’t I like to see them make finals someday soon? But the injury bug’s already started: David Swallow’s gone for the first half of the year, and there’s no real sign that things are going to be any different this year. If Gary Ablett Jr. stays healthy and at the top of his game, they could make a charge towards 8^th place, but they’re not going to do any real damage. Interesting fact: for the last eight years, there has always been a team who jumped from 14^th or lower to make finals the next season. If that happens again, I’m betting it’s Gold Coast. [Last year: 4-17-1, 73%, 16^th place. Current rating: 31.2]

   14.  Collingwood Magpies (14^th place, 7-15 plus percentage) Start booing now, Pie fans. Then explain why you have optimism this year. Explain what’s changed from the team that’s gone 2-9 since midseason last year. Why are they any better than the team that faded out of finals contention the past two years? *the silence is deafening* [Last year: 10-12, 106%, 12^th place. Current rating: 42.8]

   15.  St. Kilda Saints (15^th place, 7-15). Yes, Saints nation, we were all impressed that you managed six wins last year when some thought you wouldn’t win any. And your young talent will show some positive signs this year. But that doesn’t translate to wins in the first year – ask GWS. It’s 2017 you’re aiming for. [Last year: 6-15-1, 78%, 14^th place. Current rating: 31.0]

   16.  Brisbane Lions (16^th place, 6-16). Young, eager, excited about playing for Brisbane, which hasn’t been the case for a few years. This is going to be a fun team to watch develop. Not one that will win very often, but one that will be fun to watch. And they’ll improve, and they’ll be better in ’17. That’s the plan, and no reason to doubt it! [Last year: 4-18, 68%, 17^th place. Current rating: 30.7]

   17.   Essendon Bombers (17^th place, 4-18) Frankly, any prediction of where the topped-up Dons are going to wind up seven months from now is pure speculation. We’re assuming they’re still good players, and once they learn to play together, they’ll be able to play with the teams around them on the ladder and might even exceed the win total of the regulars who suffered from such a dysfunctional disaster last winter. But really – who knows? [Last year: 6-16, 74%, 15^th place. Current rating: 28.9]

    18. Carlton Blues (18^th place, 3-19). I really wish I could tell you otherwise, Blues fans, but it’s going to be a massive rebuilding project at Princes Park. We’ll have to wait and see what direction this club chooses to take with its new young talent and coach, but it’s not going to score very often this year, and that makes it tough to win games. [Last year: 4-18, 65%, 18^th place. Current rating: 18.7]

Qualifying Finals: Fremantle def. GWS; Hawthorn def. Geelong.

Elimination Finals: West Coast def. Sydney; Richmond def. North Melbourne.

Semi-Finals: West Coast def. GWS; Geelong def. Richmond.

Preliminary Finals: Fremantle def. Geelong; Hawthorn def. West Coast.

Grand Final: Hawthorn def. Fremantle.

FF:ACNC, take 3!

Well, let's give this another try...

WELCOME back, friends! G Paul Smith here, getting ready for the beginning of the 2016 football season as the down-under folks finish their last weekend of pre-season footy in prep for the start of the season on Thursday, March 24th....the NFL starts its fiscal year with the release of unwanted players and the start of the free agent signing period...the CFL starts putting its teams in place for pre-season games coming up in just a few weeks...colleges in the States go through its annual hypocrisy of pretending its athletes are students as it agonizes about whether they can let their players miss any more class for playoff games, or FORCE them to accept payments for their services and thereby damage their amateur status.

And soccer and rugby and the other related games probably still exist. Haven't checked recently.

So, hope you're willing to join me again, riding solo from now on (my business partner and beloved bride, Melissa, passed away in 2014), as we talk about the sport we all love, in all of its various forms.

        WELCOME HOME!    ~gps