AFL update

Still the only obloid game on the planet (not counting rugby), here's an update on the world of Australian Rules Football...

North Melbourne stayed unbeaten at 8-0 with a pair of close wins over eminently beatable teams; many think the Kangaroos are ripe for the taking, though it's unlikely to be the surprising 4-4 Carlton Blues who do that. Not particularly a Blues fan, but it would be fun to see this young team doing it with defense and hustle take down the undefeated leaders! Geelong sits at 7-1, cruising just one game behind, having pulled away from 8th place Adelaide down the stretch. Patrick Dangerfield has been a stellar addition to their midfield, moving them from out of the playoffs last year to a Grand Finals prospect in 2016. The two Opera House teams, Sydney and Greater Western Sydney (GWS), share the 6-2 spots on the ladder in 3rd and 4th, followed by the similarly 6-2 Western Bulldogs and the defenders, the Hawthorn Hawks, trailing on point percentage. Rounding out the top eight are the West Coast Eagles, alone at 5-3, and the Adelaide Crows, ahead of three other teams on percentage at 4-4. If that's not the list for the eight finals teams, I'll eat my non-existent hat! They're far and away the better of the eighteen teams, still to be discussed.

In that 4-4 pack are Carlton, mentioned above, Port Adelaide, winning games against who they should beat; and the Melbourne Demons, who have been building towards this for a couple of years. Are they ready for finals? I think it'll be one year. Below them, the fast falling Gold Coast Suns, losers of five straight, and the disappointing Collingwood Magpies, who nevertheless have OUR interest as they removed their star player, Travis Cloke, several weeks ago, in favor of a rookie from (gasp!) AMERICA named Mason Cox, who has been nothing short of impressive and improving weekly. At 2-6 sit two potentially dangerous teams: Saint Kilda, losers to good teams by close margins, and Richmond, who upset Sydney on a goal after the siren (if you catch a longish kick, called a "mark", you get to dispose of the ball unimpeded - the advantage of a mark! - even if the siren's sounded; since it's unimpeded, it's a chance to kick a goal and win if you're behind by less than a goal beforehand). Some are saying it's the "beginning of something big!" because they ran off late season winning streaks before; I don't think so. The bottom three all look terrible, and for different reasons: Brisbane Lions, which got hammered each of the last three weeks and has the coach on figurative suicide watch; Essendon Bombers, who this year are a ragtag collection of half regulars and half replacement players for reasons we've talked bout more than enough; and the 0-8 Fremantle Dockers, last year's minor premiers, who have finally started looking competitive for large chunks of games (they even led Hawthorn at the half before getting annihilated in the third quarter).

On the player of the year front, we actually have a FORWARD leading for the first time in my memory - usually, the midfielders get all the glory, but after taking the end of the season off to recover from mental health issues, Lance Franklin from Sydney is aiming for 100 goals - and he may make it! It hasn't been done for eight years, since ... well, since he did it at Hawthorn in 2008!
Here's the current leaderboard after eight rounds:

Lance Franklin					SYD		148
Patrick Dangerfield					GEEL		146
Luke Parker					SYD		126
Jarrad Waite					NMK		101
Tom J Lynch					GCS		98
Joel Selwood					GEEL		97
Dan Hannebury					SYD		92
Max Gawn					MEL		92
Lachie Hunter					WB		90
Rory Sloane					ADE		90

Dangerfield has been nothing short of remarkable; Parker and Hannebury are getting Buddy Franklin the ball in record numbers;and it's good to see Max Gawn and Tom J Lynch getting the kind of credit they have deserved for awhile now!

As for my "tipping" record? Well, I'm doing about normal for me right now; I'm sitting in the top 1000 or so consistently (out of 188,000 bettors at the moment), and within the GWS campaign, I've been in the top ten most of the season and currently sit eighth again (I was up to second at one point...). 

Update: North of the Equator

>>> What's the over/under on Johnny Manziel? I mean, in terms of him completely falling off the cliff of sanity, dying, whatever.

>>>  So, were the Rams and Eagles really the teams most in need of QBs? Denver made a good pick in Paxton Lynch - he'll play well right away. Whether Dallas' pick of OSU's Ezekiel Elliot at the #4 slot pays off or not, it's definitely a Jerry Jones pick! But at least it's not a Greg Hardy reach...

>>> Who's "rebuilding", and who's making their push for 2016? You let us know what you think!

>>> What Tennessee and Tampa are trying to do to protect their young prodigy quarterbacks is promising on both fronts. Whether it bears fruit remains to be seen...

>>> Baltimore claims they pulled the plug on drafting Jeremiah Tunsil because of the "supposedly hacked" social media post with a bong. Right or wrong move?

 

All-in? Or "rebuilding"?

Here's a great article by the always excellent Damian Barrett of afl.com.au that gives superb thumbnail sketches of all eighteen teams in the Australian Football League in 2016.

ALL IN, ALL THE TIME? Geelong and Sydney, maybe Hawthorn and West Coast in recent years.

ALL IN FOR RIGHT NOW, ANYWAY? North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Western are all in this year, at least. The NM Kangaroos, at least, are working with a pretty good number of thirty-somethings (including the immortal Brent Harvey), so they're in it for a pretty short window...possibly.

BUILDING TOWARDS THE NOW...OR THE NEAR NOW? Greater Western Sydney has gone 18th, 18th, 16th, and 11th in their four years...and suddenly, they MAY (repeat: may) be already in their championship window. If so? They could be there a while.

BUILDING FOR THE (UN)FORSEEABLE FUTURE? Barrett has no mercy for the teams which use the excuse of "rebuilding" as a euphemism for "we don't have the horses to compete", regardless of whether that's their fault or not. (His point, of course, is that it usually IS.) That's Brisbane and Carlton (not much choice in either case, but it's going to be a while...), Melbourne and St. Kilda (who each started a couple of years ago, and darned if they aren't making progress!), and (according to the team suddenly) Collingwood, the "Yankees/Man U" of the AFL, who basically screwed up the present and decided to call it a rebuilding project. Yeah...

BUILT FOR THE NOW OR RECENT PAST, BUT... Woe to Fremantle (the most sudden collapse around), Port Adelaide and Richmond (the Tigers edged into second by losing to the Power last week), and ... well, that's three too many. These three are in trouble, with no real easy way out.

EXTRANEOUS CASES: There's Essendon, who has the WADA drug suspensions over its head. They could be in any of the above categories next year...we'll have to wait and see. And Gold Coast was supposed to be following GWS' trajectory a year in advance, except for scandals, injury plagues, and financial brou-ha-has. Could go any which way, depending on how the terrible trinity goes.

So, who fits which category in the NFL? The CFL? Let us know what you think!

Six games in, and we're finished already...

Not literally finished, but seemingly. The Australian Footy season is barely one-quarter finished, and there's four months to go before finals, but I would wager something significant that the current top 8 will be there at the end as well, barring major injury issues debilitating one of the teams (Western is the most vulnerable at the moment, having already lost three key starters):

1. North Melbourne Kangaroos  (6-0, 125%), beating Western by two goals Friday night.
2. Geelong Cats (5-1, 174%), after a 120 thrashing of Gold Coast Saturday.
3. Sydney Swans (5-1, 144%), challenged this week by an up and coming Brisbane Lions team.
4. Western Bulldogs (4-2, 156%), losers to the Roos and by three to the three-time champs.
5. GWS Giants (4-2, 141%), who stamped their certificate with a 75-pt annihilation of Hawthorn!
6. West Coast Eagles (4-2, 130%), but they have to learn to beat someone in the top 8 to threaten.
7. Adelaide Crows (4-2, 122%), easy winners over pitiful Fremantle this week.
8. Hawthorn Hawks (4-2, 92%), whipped by the newbies this week but still the champ.

The next four teams are the bridesmaids, with potential but not the firepower yet to consistently challenge any of the teams above them. Sometimes they can win...but not often enough to make finals:

9. Melbourne Demons (3-3, 102%), erratic but growing in capability.
10. Gold Coast Suns (3-3, 95%), injury bitten AGAIN, third year in a row.
11. Port Adelaide Power (3-3, 90%), false hope - three wins against whipping boys.
12. St. Kilda Saints (2-4, 89%), erratic but improving quickly!

Finally, there's the bottom six - someone here may leap into the tier above this (Brisbane?), but they have NO shot at finals in 2016:

13. Collingwood Magpies (2-4, 79%), beating Essendon isn't a badge of honor, guys!
14. Carlton Blues (2-4, 74%), see previous comment.
15. Richmond Tigers (1-5, 75%), expected to be 5-1 after being in finals three years in a row...
16. Brisbane Lions (1-5, 71%), the most promising of the six; took Sydney within a goal last night.
17. Essendon Bombers (1-5, 62%), expected NOTHING this year, with half the team banished!
18. Fremantle Dockers (0-6, 69%), an unreal fall from grace for a team that WON the home-and-away season last year! They've already matched their loss total for all of 2015! At season's beginning, the game this coming weekend where GWS comes to Fremantle was about a 26 point Docker favorite; now, it's 26 points to GWS' favor. They've gotten here legitimately, too: they look like a last place team on the field.