The first weekend went down with every home team winning, even the three games that many tipped the other way. The BIG winners were the Sydney Swans (annihilated a listless Collingwood team that had looked good in pre-season), Western Bulldogs, who somehow made the reigning minor premier Fremantle club look like beginners, shutting them out entirely until halfway through the second quarter; and Geelong, who defeated the three-time defenders Hawthorn with room to spare. The West Coast Eagles looked good, scoring 160+ against Brisbane (who hit 100 themselves), Gold Coast against Essendon (but everyone will look good against the Dons this year), and the other winners and frankly some of the losers: Richmond, Melbourne, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne all won; but Carlton and St. Kilda both looked better than expected in their losses, and GWS and Adelaide came close to winning their matches.
The top players of the first week, according to our combination of all sorts of different rating and voting systems in Aussie land, were these six men:
1. Robbie Grey (Port Adelaide) - 35 pts
1. Josh Kennedy (West Coast) - 35 pts
1. Nic Naitanui (West Coast) - 35 pts
1. Luke Parker (Sydney) - 35 pts
5. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) - 34 pts
6. Jake Stringer (Western) - 30 pts
In the coming week, every road team last week is a home team this week, so we've got nine 1-0 teams travelling to nine 0-1 teams (understanding some of them share the MCG or some other stadium, so "travel" is sometimes figurative):
Richmond @ Collingwood (take Richmond +7.5)
Port Adelaide @ Adelaide (they share a stadium, and they're about equally good)
Melbourne @ Essendon (bet against Essendon every game this year until they become respectable.)
North Melbourne @ Brisbane (Kangaroos should win)
Western Bulldogs @ St. Kilda (in Jack Riewoldt's 300th game with the Saints)
Gold Coast @ Fremantle (hard to believe that Freo won't come back and win)
Geelong @ GWS (Geelong should win, but GWS needs to make a good showing)
West Coast @ Hawthorn (rematch of the Grand Final; most think WC will get a measure of revenge)
Sydney @ Carlton (again, hard to see even an improved Carlton making a game of this).
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Monday, March 21, 2016
Australian Footy starts this Thursday!
Richmond and Carlton start the season off with their traditional opening night game on Thursday night (4 am MDT here in the States, 6 am on the east coast, 3 on the west).
Here's a great article that simply lists the likely opening day rosters and general trends for each of the eighteen teams in the Australian Football League for 2016 (with the exception of two expansion teams - Gold Coast in 2010 and GWS in 2011 - the same teams for twenty consecutive seasons!)
Here's a great article that simply lists the likely opening day rosters and general trends for each of the eighteen teams in the Australian Football League for 2016 (with the exception of two expansion teams - Gold Coast in 2010 and GWS in 2011 - the same teams for twenty consecutive seasons!)
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
NFL Free Agency update
I actually posted this on our Facebook page quite a few days ago, and never brought it back to the house, so to speak... Here's a great piece on the current state of the NFL free agency madness, with some definitive winners (like the Raiders and Buccaneers) and losers (look'n at you, SF and Cleveland...). Denver's still up in the air - if they still have the time to get a qualified quarterback, they'll be fine. If...
What would YOU have done?
Here's the story from AFL.com.au about the pre-season closer last week where Richmond chose to play 15 (rather than 18) players during the fourth quarter of an exhibition game after a slough of injuries had decimated his team and he had no bench to work with for the last quarter and a half or so:
RICHMOND has escaped sanction for fielding just 15 players in the final quarter of its NAB Challenge hit-out against Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium last Thursday night.
Tigers coach Damien Hardwick asked the League during the game whether the match could be called off early as the club's injury toll mounted.
AFL football operations manager Mark Evans met with Tigers football boss Dan Richardson on Tuesday to discuss the situation and the club's obligation to fans and the broadcaster.
"I'm happy to leave it at that," Evans told RSN927 on Wednesday morning.
"In fact, I think the internal discussions have been very good and very well considered.
"We've all agreed the time-honoured way of parking a player in the goal square, if you wanted to, is a better outcome."
Evans said he understood why the Tigers made the inquiry to the League with round one fast approaching.
"I think there was a split decision to start removing players from the field. It was then pointed out that that's not we were looking for," Evans said.
"Dan Richardson and I had a discussion about this yesterday and he provided all the implications as to what they were dealing with at the time.
"I accept that was difficult for them, but equally they've accepted there were other ways of doing things."
The Tigers players dropped like nine-pins through the game with injuries to Shane Edwards (collarbone), Shaun Grigg (thumb), Reece Conca (hamstring) and Jacob Townsend (concussion) amplifying Hardwick's frustration.
Hardwick revealed post-match he had asked for the game to be cut short in the last 10 minutes.
That request was denied by the AFL, which then asked the Tigers to field a full team for the remainder of the game.
What would you have done? Let us know in the comments!
Sunday, March 13, 2016
Some NFL thoughts since last we met...
...Congratulations to the Denver Broncos, who won Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara with a dominant defensive performance against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.
...The Peyton Manning saga couldn't have gotten any heavier in drama, could it? Put the Sheriff in during the second half of the last game of the season to save the top seed, leave him in for the playoffs, where he does just enough to get the Broncos past the Steelers and his old nemesis the Patriots, and then rides on the back of his legendary defense to a second title and the perfect way to go out a winner.
...Speaking of retirements, why are the Detroit Lions so poisonous that the great players retire? First Barry Sanders, and now Calvin Johnson? Megatron, like the great Barry, is a quiet man who didn't need the money or the accolades; when he was ready to stop, he simply stopped. But I just can't help but think that if he'd been with a team that had, say, hope, he'd stay another year or two.
...Free agency? Kind of strange, as always. At Following Football, we don't really care much about things like free agency, the draft, or fantasy football - basically anything that glorifies the individual over the team. But there were some interesting moves over the last several weeks since SB50: the Giants' work in signing most of a new defense; positive movement for teams like Tampa, Oakland, Houston, and maybe Chicago. Bad news for Denver and Cleveland, although getting rid of Johnny Manziel is going to be a huge plus.
...Martavis Bryant and Joseph Randle proved they're both idiots and addicts. Never mind the suspensions - in order to reach that level of suspension, this was the sixth failed drug test for Bryant in four years, and the fourth in barely over a year for Randle. And they KNEW they were going to be tested!! Hope those drugs were worth flushing your career down the toilet, careers that will pay you far more than anything else you're qualified to do in your life.
...Quarterback shuffles: Brock Osweiler to Houston, which means Denver's desperate for a quarterback. San Francisco wants to deal Colin Kaepernick, but that will leave them without a quarterback on the roster worth their salt. The Jets are similarly desperate to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick, because if they don't, they're also screwed. In the NFL, you have to have a great QB, or at least a solid one. Even with a defense like Denver won with this year, they still had the Brain of Manning, and a good semi-rookie in Osweiler going 5-2 in between. (Manning went 10-2, by the way, even counting when he was injured.) You're not going to win with Tyrod Taylor. Sorry, but you're just NOT. There are probably eight WINNING quarterbacks in the NFL - Rodgers, Brady, etc. - and another 8-12 who you can WIN WITH - Flacco, Luck, Ryan, Manning this year - if the other pieces are exemplary. The rest CANNOT win. Period.
Get that quarterback. If Carson Wentz or Jarrod Goff are that good, sell the farm to get them.
...The Peyton Manning saga couldn't have gotten any heavier in drama, could it? Put the Sheriff in during the second half of the last game of the season to save the top seed, leave him in for the playoffs, where he does just enough to get the Broncos past the Steelers and his old nemesis the Patriots, and then rides on the back of his legendary defense to a second title and the perfect way to go out a winner.
...Speaking of retirements, why are the Detroit Lions so poisonous that the great players retire? First Barry Sanders, and now Calvin Johnson? Megatron, like the great Barry, is a quiet man who didn't need the money or the accolades; when he was ready to stop, he simply stopped. But I just can't help but think that if he'd been with a team that had, say, hope, he'd stay another year or two.
...Free agency? Kind of strange, as always. At Following Football, we don't really care much about things like free agency, the draft, or fantasy football - basically anything that glorifies the individual over the team. But there were some interesting moves over the last several weeks since SB50: the Giants' work in signing most of a new defense; positive movement for teams like Tampa, Oakland, Houston, and maybe Chicago. Bad news for Denver and Cleveland, although getting rid of Johnny Manziel is going to be a huge plus.
...Martavis Bryant and Joseph Randle proved they're both idiots and addicts. Never mind the suspensions - in order to reach that level of suspension, this was the sixth failed drug test for Bryant in four years, and the fourth in barely over a year for Randle. And they KNEW they were going to be tested!! Hope those drugs were worth flushing your career down the toilet, careers that will pay you far more than anything else you're qualified to do in your life.
...Quarterback shuffles: Brock Osweiler to Houston, which means Denver's desperate for a quarterback. San Francisco wants to deal Colin Kaepernick, but that will leave them without a quarterback on the roster worth their salt. The Jets are similarly desperate to keep Ryan Fitzpatrick, because if they don't, they're also screwed. In the NFL, you have to have a great QB, or at least a solid one. Even with a defense like Denver won with this year, they still had the Brain of Manning, and a good semi-rookie in Osweiler going 5-2 in between. (Manning went 10-2, by the way, even counting when he was injured.) You're not going to win with Tyrod Taylor. Sorry, but you're just NOT. There are probably eight WINNING quarterbacks in the NFL - Rodgers, Brady, etc. - and another 8-12 who you can WIN WITH - Flacco, Luck, Ryan, Manning this year - if the other pieces are exemplary. The rest CANNOT win. Period.
Get that quarterback. If Carson Wentz or Jarrod Goff are that good, sell the farm to get them.
Saturday, March 12, 2016
2016 Australian Footy League predictions (guaranteed wrong or your money back!)
After laying out the strengths and weaknesses, tendencies and trends of each team, I ran a simulated season using the 2016 fixture, and here’s what I’m predicting for the 2016 season:
1. Hawthorn Hawks (2nd on the ladder at
17-5, win Grand Final). The Hawks
are here at the top until someone proves they can knock them off. And there’s
nothing in their form or roster that gives a reason to doubt that four straight
is possible, even likely. [Last year: 16-6,
158%, 3rd on ladder, GF champion. Current rating: 84.9]
2. Fremantle Dockers (1st on the ladder at
18-4, lose Grand Final) With Nat
Fyfe at the top of his game, if Harley Bennell is the key addition they
think he is – prove it, Harley! – they’ll run through the regular home-and-away
again, but they still can’t beat the Hawks in October at the MCG. [Last year: 17-5, 119%, 1st on the ladder,
prelim finalists. Current rating: 57.6]
3. Geelong Cats (3rd on the ladder at
15-7, prelim finalists) Paddy
Dangerfield and the speed of the new wave of young Cats will pull them through
games they wore out in last year. [Last year:
11-9-2, 101%, 10th place. Current rating: 52.4]
4. West Coast Eagles (5th on the ladder at
14-8, prelim finalists) No reason
to think they can’t beat any team below them in a finals situation with their
talent and experience, but not Freo or Hawthorn this year. [Last year: 16-5-1, 148%, lost in GF. Current rating
75.5]
5. Greater Western Sydney
Giants (4th
on the ladder at 15-7; semi-finalists) This is the year that they come through big time. Only a lack of
playoff experience will keep them from advancing farther than two losses and
out after the double chance. On paper, this team has very few weaknesses. [Last year: 11-11,
99%, 11th place. Current rating: 40.5]
6. Richmond Tigers (7th on the ladder at 14-8;
semi-finalists) Progress – the Tigers win their first game at North Melbourne
in finals this year, but Geelong at home proves too much. Still, another solid
season, their first finals win: things continue to look good for Tiger Nation. [Last year: 15-7, 123%, elimination finalists.
Current rating: 65.0]
7. North Melbourne Kangaroos (6th on the ladder at
14-8, qualifying finalists) Another
solid season for the Kangas, but age will catch up with them late in the
season. Except for Brent Harvey, who will pass game 418 and then reveal he’s
actually an android sent from the future. [Last
year: 13-9, 107%, prelim finalists. Current rating: 64.5]
8. Western Bulldogs (8th on the ladder at 13-9 plus
percentage; qualifying finalists) Couldn’t understand why everyone thought this budding young
team could possibly fall back, until I ran the simulation and realized what a
difficult schedule they have. They’ll have to rely on Freo relaxing in round 23
to secure this last spot. [Last year:
14-8, 115%, elimination finalists. Current rating: 58.9]
9. Sydney Swans (9th place, 13-9 with lower percentage than WB) No Goodes, no Jetta, Buddy
could very well be on the downside, and Isaac Heeney can’t be the only young
talent on the team. Too slow to catch teams like Western. [Last year: 16-6, 127%, semi-finalists. Current
rating: 65.6]
10. Adelaide Crows (10th place, 11-11
plus percentage) The loss of
Dangerfield will hurt more than the Crows want to admit. All the trauma from
Phil Walsh’s death last year will catch up with them this year, just as
Essendon found out two years ago. [Last year: 13-8-1, 116%, semi-finalists. Current rating:
61.2]
11. Melbourne Demons (11th place, 11-11) This may have been the biggest surprise in
the simulation. Melbourne many not make finals this year, but after a five-game
win streak in this run-thru, they were 6-4 and sitting pretty. Three losses in
a row on the road in July may doom those chances, but Demons supporters will
take .500 this year! [Last year: 7-15, 77%, 13th place. Current
rating: 30.8]
12. Port Adelaide Power (12th place, 8-14 plus percentage) The Power are much
more likely to look like they did the last half of ’15 than the first half of
’14. The speed and cohesiveness are just gone. [Last
year: 12-10, 107%, 9th place. Current rating: 59.6]
13. Gold Coast Suns (13th place, 8-14) Man-o-man, wouldn’t I like
to see them make finals someday soon? But the injury bug’s already started:
David Swallow’s gone for the first half of the year, and there’s no real sign
that things are going to be any different this year. If Gary Ablett Jr. stays
healthy and at the top of his game, they could make a charge towards 8th
place, but they’re not going to do any real damage. Interesting fact: for the
last eight years, there has always been a team who jumped from 14th
or lower to make finals the next season. If that happens again, I’m betting
it’s Gold Coast. [Last year:
4-17-1, 73%, 16th place. Current rating: 31.2]
14. Collingwood Magpies (14th place, 7-15 plus
percentage) Start booing now, Pie
fans. Then explain why you have optimism this year. Explain what’s changed from
the team that’s gone 2-9 since midseason last year. Why are they any better
than the team that faded out of finals contention the past two years? *the
silence is deafening* [Last year: 10-12, 106%,
12th place. Current rating: 42.8]
15. St. Kilda Saints (15th place, 7-15). Yes, Saints nation, we were all impressed
that you managed six wins last year when some thought you wouldn’t win any. And
your young talent will show some positive signs this year. But that doesn’t
translate to wins in the first year – ask GWS. It’s 2017 you’re aiming
for. [Last year: 6-15-1, 78%, 14th
place. Current rating: 31.0]
16. Brisbane Lions (16th place, 6-16). Young, eager, excited about playing for Brisbane,
which hasn’t been the case for a few years. This is going to be a fun team to
watch develop. Not one that will win very often, but one that will be
fun to watch. And they’ll improve, and they’ll be better in ’17. That’s the
plan, and no reason to doubt it! [Last year: 4-18, 68%, 17th place. Current
rating: 30.7]
17. Essendon Bombers (17th place, 4-18) Frankly, any
prediction of where the topped-up Dons are going to wind up seven months from
now is pure speculation. We’re assuming they’re still good players, and once
they learn to play together, they’ll be able to play with the teams around them
on the ladder and might even exceed the win total of the regulars who suffered
from such a dysfunctional disaster last winter. But really – who knows? [Last year: 6-16, 74%, 15th place.
Current rating: 28.9]
18. Carlton Blues (18th place, 3-19). I really wish I could tell you otherwise,
Blues fans, but it’s going to be a massive rebuilding project at Princes Park.
We’ll have to wait and see what direction this club chooses to take with its
new young talent and coach, but it’s not going to score very often this year,
and that makes it tough to win games. [Last
year: 4-18, 65%, 18th place. Current rating: 18.7]
Qualifying Finals: Fremantle def. GWS; Hawthorn def. Geelong.
Elimination Finals: West Coast def. Sydney; Richmond def. North
Melbourne.
Semi-Finals: West Coast def. GWS; Geelong def. Richmond.
Preliminary Finals: Fremantle def. Geelong; Hawthorn def. West
Coast.
Grand Final: Hawthorn def. Fremantle.
Friday, March 11, 2016
FF:ACNC, take 3!
Well, let's give this another try...
WELCOME back, friends! G Paul Smith here, getting ready for the beginning of the 2016 football season as the down-under folks finish their last weekend of pre-season footy in prep for the start of the season on Thursday, March 24th....the NFL starts its fiscal year with the release of unwanted players and the start of the free agent signing period...the CFL starts putting its teams in place for pre-season games coming up in just a few weeks...colleges in the States go through its annual hypocrisy of pretending its athletes are students as it agonizes about whether they can let their players miss any more class for playoff games, or FORCE them to accept payments for their services and thereby damage their amateur status.
And soccer and rugby and the other related games probably still exist. Haven't checked recently.
So, hope you're willing to join me again, riding solo from now on (my business partner and beloved bride, Melissa, passed away in 2014), as we talk about the sport we all love, in all of its various forms.
WELCOME HOME! ~gps
WELCOME back, friends! G Paul Smith here, getting ready for the beginning of the 2016 football season as the down-under folks finish their last weekend of pre-season footy in prep for the start of the season on Thursday, March 24th....the NFL starts its fiscal year with the release of unwanted players and the start of the free agent signing period...the CFL starts putting its teams in place for pre-season games coming up in just a few weeks...colleges in the States go through its annual hypocrisy of pretending its athletes are students as it agonizes about whether they can let their players miss any more class for playoff games, or FORCE them to accept payments for their services and thereby damage their amateur status.
And soccer and rugby and the other related games probably still exist. Haven't checked recently.
So, hope you're willing to join me again, riding solo from now on (my business partner and beloved bride, Melissa, passed away in 2014), as we talk about the sport we all love, in all of its various forms.
WELCOME HOME! ~gps
Thursday, March 10, 2016
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