Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Our "FINAL" college football rankings for the 2014 season!

As the college season comes down to its final game next Monday evening, it's time to present our final tiers and rankings for the 2014 football season. (The asterisk by A1 and A2, of course, mean that the winner of the CFP title game will be A1, and the other team A2. At the moment, though, we have Oregon first.) The tiers don't always fall neatly into groups of six: for example, the top four and TCU seem to be a full step ahead of the next group of schools, so we didn't force a sixth team into that "A" tier. 

Here we go...
FOLLOWING FOOTBALL - FINAL RANKINGS for 2014!
NCAA - BOWL SUBDIVISION Final Final
FF rank Team Conf CfRec BOWL oppont Outcome Record Ranking
A1* Oregon pac 9-1 NC/Rose OhSt/FSU (59-20) 13-1 A1*
A2* Ohio St b10 9-0 NC/Sgr Ore/Ala (42-35) 13-1 A2*
A3 Alabama sec 8-1 Sugar Ohio St 35-42 12-2 A3
A4 Florida St acc 9-0 Rose Oregon 20-59 13-1 A4
A5 TCU b12 8-1 Peach Ole Miss 42-3 12-1 A5
B06 Michigan St b10 7-1 Cotton Baylor 42-41 11-2 B06
B07 Baylor b12 8-1 Cotton Mich St 41-42 11-2 B07
B08 Georgia Tech acc 6-3 Orange Miss St 49-34 11-3 B08
B09 Mississippi St sec 6-2 Orange GaTech 34-49 10-3 B09
B10 Georgia sec 6-2 Dec 30 Louisv 37-14 10-3 B10
B11 UCLA pac 6-3 Jan 2 K State 40-35 10-3 B11
C12 Ole Miss sec 5-3 Peach TCU 3-42 9-4 C12
C13 Missouri sec 7-2 Jan 1 Minnes 33-17 11-3 C13
C14 Kansas St b12 7-2 Jan 2 UCLA 35-40 9-4 C14
C15 Clemson acc 6-2 Dec 29 Okla 40-6 10-3 C15
C16 Wisconsin b10 7-2 Jan 1 Auburn 34-31 11-3 C16
C17 Auburn sec 5-3 Jan 1 Wisc 31-34 8-5 C17
D18 Boise St mw 8-1 Fiesta Arizona 38-30 12-2 D18
D19 Arizona St pac 6-3 Dec 27 Duke 36-31 10-3 D19
D20 USC pac 6-3 Dec 27 Nebrska 45-42 9-4 D20
D21 Arizona pac 7-3 Fiesta Boise St 30-38 10-4 D21
D22 LSU sec 4-4 Dec 30 Notre D 28-31 8-5 D22
D23 Utah pac 5-4 Dec 20 Colo St 45-10 9-4 D23
E24 Texas A&M sec 3-5 Dec 29 WVU 45-37 8-5 E24
E25 Stanford pac 5-4 Dec 30 Maryl 45-21 8-5 E25
E26 Arkansas sec 2-6 Dec 29 Texas 31-7 7-6 E26
E27 Nebraska b10 5-3 Dec 27 USC 42-45 9-4 E27
E28 Oklahoma b12 5-4 Dec 29 Clemson 6-40 8-5 E28
E29 Louisville acc 5-3 Dec 30 Georgia 14-37 9-4 E29
E30 Marshall cusa 8-1 Dec 23 NIU 52-23 13-1 E30
E31 Notre Dame ind * Dec 30 LSU 31-28 8-5 E31
E32 Minnesota b10 5-3 Jan 1 Mizzou 17-33 8-5 E32
E33 Duke acc 5-3 Dec 27 Az St 31-36 9-4 E33
F34 Florida sec 4-4 Jan 3 ECU 28-20 7-5 F34
F35 South Carolina sec 3-5 Dec 27 MiaFL 24-21 7-6 F35
F36 Colorado St mw 6-2 Dec 20 Utah 10-45 10-3 F36
F37 Memphis aac 7-1 Dec 22 BYU 55-48 10-3 F37
G38 West Virginia b12 5-4 Dec 29 TA&M 37-45 7-6 G38
G39 Washington pac 4-5 Jan 2 OkSt 22-30 8-6 G39
G40 Cincinnati aac 6-1 Dec 27 VaTech 17-33 8-4 G40
G41 Miami-FL acc 3-5 Dec 27 SoCarol 21-24 6-7 G41
G42 Utah St mw 6-2 Dec 20 UTEP 21-6 10-4 G42
H43 North Carolina St acc 3-5 Dec 26 UCF 34-27 8-5 H43
H44 Maryland b10 4-4 Dec 30 Stanfd 21-45 7-6 H44
H45 Tennessee sec 3-5 Jan 2 Iowa 45-28 7-6 H45
H46 Northern Illinois mac 8-1 Dec 23 Marshl 23-52 11-3 H46
H47 Rutgers b10 3-5 Dec 26 UNC 40-21 8-5 H47
H48 Penn St b10 2-6 Dec 27 BC 31-30 7-6 H48
H49 Air Force mw 5-3 Dec 20 WMU 38-24 10-3 H49
I50 Texas b12 5-4 Dec 29 Arkans 7-31 6-7 I50
I51 Oklahoma St b12 4-5 Jan 2 Wash 30-22 7-6 I51
I52 Iowa b10 4-4 Jan 2 Tenn 28-45 7-6 I52
I53 Boston College acc 4-4 Dec 27 PennSt 30-31 7-6 I53
I54 Kentucky sec 2-6 5-7 I54
J55 Central Florida aac 7-1 Dec 26 NCSt 27-34 9-4 J55
J56 East Carolina aac 5-3 Jan 3 Florida 20-28 8-5 J56
J57 BYU ind * Dec 22 Memph 48-55 8-5 J57
J58 Louisiana Tech cusa 7-2 Dec 26 Illinois 35-18 9-5 J58
J59 Virginia Tech acc 3-5 Dec 27 Cincinn 33-17 7-6 J59
J60 Navy ind * Dec 23 SDSU 17-16 8-5 J60
K61 North Carolina acc 4-4 Dec 26 Rutgers 21-40 6-7 K61
K62 Georgia Southern sun 8-0 9-3 K62
K63 UL-Lafayette sun 7-1 Dec 20 Nevada 16-3 9-4 K63
K64 Western Kentucky cusa 4-4 Dec 24 CMU 49-48 8-5 K64
K65 California pac 3-6 5-7 K65
K66 Oregon St pac 2-7 5-7 K66
K67 Michigan b10 3-5 5-7 K67
Final Final
FF rank Team Conf CfRec BOWL oppont Outcome Record Ranking
L68 Western Michigan mac 6-2 Dec 20 AFA 24-38 8-5 L68
L69 Houston aac 5-3 Jan 2 Pitt 35-34 8-5 L69
L70 Pitt acc 4-4 Jan 2 Houston 34-35 6-7 L70
L71 Illinois b10 3-5 Dec 26 LaTech 18-35 6-7 L71
L72 Nevada mw 4-4 Dec 20 ULL 3-16 7-6 L72
L73 Toledo mac 7-1 Jan 4 Ark St 63-44 9-4 L73
M74 Texas Tech b12 2-7 4-8 M74
M75 Virginia acc 3-5 5-7 M75
M76 Rice cusa 5-3 Dec 24 Fresno 30-6 8-5 M76
M77 San Diego St mw 5-3 Dec 23 Navy 16-17 7-6 M77
M78 Northwestern b10 3-5 5-7 M78
N79 Temple aac 4-4 6-6 N79
N80 Bowling Green mac 5-4 Dec 20 SoAlab 33-28 8-6 N80
N81 Arkansas St sun 5-3 Jan 4 Toledo 44-63 7-6 N81
N82 Central Michigan mac 5-3 Dec 24 WKU 48-49 7-6 N82
O83 Fresno St mw 5-4 Dec 24 Rice 6-30 6-8 O83
O84 UTEP cusa 5-3 Dec 20 UtahSt 6-21 7-6 O84
O85 UAB cusa 4-4 6-6 O85
O86 Washington St pac 2-7 3-9 O86
O87 Texas St sun 5-3 7-5 O87
O88 Appalachian St sun 6-2 7-5 O88
O89 Kansas b12 1-8 3-9 O89
O90 Syracuse acc 1-7 3-9 O90
O91 South Alabama sun 5-3 Dec 20 BGSU 28-33 6-7 O91
P92 Purdue b10 2-6 4-8 P92
P93 Ohio mac 4-4 6-6 P93
P94 Middle Tennessee cusa 5-3 6-6 P94
P95 Colorado pac 0-9 2-10 P95
P96 Iowa St b12 0-9 2-10 P96
Q097 UL-Monroe sun 3-5 4-8 Q097
Q098 Ball St mac 4-4 5-7 Q098
Q099 Wyoming mw 2-6 4-8 Q099
Q100 Buffalo mac 3-4 5-6 Q100
Q101 Wake Forest acc 1-7 3-9 Q101
Q102 Indiana b10 0-8 3-9 Q102
R103 Hawai'i mw 3-5 4-9 R103
R104 Old Dominion cusa 4-4 6-6 R104
R105 South Florida aac 3-5 4-8 R105
R106 New Mexico mw 2-6 4-8 R106
R107 Vanderbilt sec 0-8 3-9 R107
R108 FIU cusa 3-5 4-8 R108
S109 Florida Atlantic cusa 2-6 3-9 S109
S110 Akron mac 3-5 5-7 S110
S111 Tulane aac 2-6 3-9 S111
S112 Army ind * 4-8 S112
S113 North Texas cusa 2-6 4-8 S113
S114 Southern Miss cusa 1-7 3-9 S114
T115 San Jose St mw 2-6 3-9 T115
T116 UT-San Antonio sun 3-4 4-7 T116
T117 Miami-OH mac 2-6 2-10 T117
T118 Troy sun 3-5 3-9 T118
T119 Tulsa aac 2-6 2-10 T119
T120 UNLV mw 1-7 2-11 T120
U121 Kent St mac 1-6 2-9 U121
U122 U Massachusetts mac 3-5 3-9 U122
U123 U Conn aac 1-7 2-10 U123
U124 Idaho sun 1-7 1-10 U124
V125 Eastern Michigan mac 1-7 2-10 V125
V126 SMU aac 1-7 1-11 V126
V127 New Mexico St sun 1-7 2-10 V127
V128 Georgia St sun 0-8 1-11 V128








a few thoughts...

...the SEC ended up with nine teams in spots #3, 9, 10, 12, 13, 17, 22, 24, and 26 (including ALL SEVEN of the SEC West schools!)...but none in the championship game (and only one in the top 8, fewer than the Big Ten, Big Twelve, OR the ACC!).
...the conferences tended to spread themselves out at the top relatively well: the top 5 came from five different conferences (all five power conferences, naturally), and no school had more than two teams in the top 9.
...Within the top four tiers (#1-23), there are seven SEC teams, six Pac-12 teams (#1, 11, 19, 20, 21, and 23), three Big Ten teams (#2, 6, and 16), three Big 12 teams (#5, 7, and 14), three ACC teams (#4, 8, and 15), and one Mountain West "Group Of Five" interloper (Boise St at #18). 
...In the end, our top four matched the CFP committee's Top four on Dec 7, albeit in a different order (we originally had Oregon first), which is why we resisted moving TCU past any of them into the top 4 despite their brutally dominant performance. However bad the Seminole loss was, it was to a top 4 team.
...Looking at our Bottom 14 teams, we find that there were five from the Sun Belt (with Georgia St and New Mexico St taking the lowest rungs in tier V), four from the MAC, and three from the old Big East, now called the AAC (including SMU, who resided winless in the cellar ALL season long until their victory on the last day of the season over UConn!).
..Next fall, we plan to start from this ranking, even though teams are going to change DRASTICALLY between now and then: without game data to evaluate teams, there's no real way to gauge how to change our tiers. (Of course, once the games start, we'll be VERY willing to move teams dramatically if there's a dramatic difference!) The other principle we abide by is that actually ranking teams early in the season is futile and pointless, so all you'll see are the tiers for awhile, just as we did this year.

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